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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 28.9 points lower, down 0.35%.
It was another day of very clearly delineated haves and have nots. “Have” sectors included those still basking in the warm afterglow of last week’s Trump + Red Sweep, plus those enjoying a continued but very modest dip in market yields in the USA on Friday.
“Have Not” sectors were generally those more exposed to Chinese economic growth as investors lamented China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee's failure to wield a bazooka of fresh fiscal stimulus measures at their meeting over the weekend.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Mon 11 Nov 24, 5:07pm (AEDT)
Name | Value | % Chg |
---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
ASX 200 | 8,266.2 | -0.35% |
All Ords | 8,518.9 | -0.39% |
Small Ords | 3,155.6 | -0.44% |
All Tech | 3,707.9 | +0.81% |
Emerging Companies | 2,297.0 | +0.19% |
Currency | ||
AUD/USD | 0.6595 | +0.18% |
US Futures | ||
S&P 500 | 6,036.25 | +0.18% |
Dow Jones | 44,169.0 | +0.06% |
Nasdaq | 21,289.0 | +0.27% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
---|---|---|
Sector | ||
Information Technology | 2,774.7 | +1.39% |
Real Estate | 3,913.4 | +1.24% |
Health Care | 45,322.8 | +0.70% |
Consumer Discretionary | 3,788.4 | +0.41% |
Financials | 8,731.8 | +0.22% |
Industrials | 7,506.4 | +0.21% |
Communication Services | 1,640.5 | +0.10% |
Energy | 8,640.0 | -0.67% |
Utilities | 8,365.5 | -0.70% |
Consumer Staples | 11,406.0 | -1.84% |
Materials | 16,989.7 | -2.80% |
Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 28.9 points lower at 8,266.2, 0.35% from its session high and 0.24% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a disappointing 111 to 166.
It was another day of very clearly delineated haves and have nots. “Have” sectors included those still basking in the warm afterglow of last week’s Trump + Red Sweep (US earners and other strong US dollar beneficiaries), plus those enjoying a continued but very modest dip in market yields in the USA on Friday (high-PE / long duration earnings and consumer-related).
Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.4%), Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+1.4%), Health Care (XHJ) (+0.70%), and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.41%) topped the Have winners list.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Weebit Nano (WBT) | $2.73 | +$0.35 | +14.7% | +32.5% | -38.1% |
Novonix (NVX) | $0.810 | +$0.09 | +12.5% | -4.1% | +6.6% |
Pointsbet (PBH) | $0.975 | +$0.09 | +10.2% | +43.4% | +129.9% |
Appen (APX) | $2.59 | +$0.15 | +6.1% | +19.4% | +175.1% |
Findi (FND) | $6.90 | +$0.33 | +5.0% | +38.8% | +961.5% |
Mesoblast (MSB) | $1.460 | +$0.065 | +4.7% | +0.7% | +316.2% |
HMC Capital (HMC) | $10.80 | +$0.42 | +4.0% | +23.1% | +133.3% |
Megaport (MP1) | $7.69 | +$0.29 | +3.9% | +1.5% | -26.6% |
Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) | $7.48 | +$0.28 | +3.9% | +7.3% | +564.0% |
LTR Pharma (LTP) | $1.535 | +$0.055 | +3.7% | -20.5% | 0% |
Light & Wonder (LNW) | $157.29 | +$4.37 | +2.9% | +12.3% | +26.0% |
Cettire (CTT) | $1.475 | +$0.04 | +2.8% | -35.0% | -49.5% |
Cochlear (COH) | $300.93 | +$8.01 | +2.7% | +3.0% | +19.2% |
Goodman Group (GMG) | $36.60 | +$0.9 | +2.5% | +0.4% | +63.9% |
Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) | $90.15 | +$2.15 | +2.4% | +6.1% | +40.5% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $129.90 | +$2.81 | +2.2% | -2.1% | +104.1% |
Stockland (SGP) | $5.15 | +$0.11 | +2.2% | -3.4% | +33.4% |
Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) | $5.20 | +$0.1 | +2.0% | +15.0% | +30.7% |
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) | $65.61 | +$1.2 | +1.9% | +12.1% | +63.0% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | $38.08 | +$0.69 | +1.8% | +8.2% | +59.8% |
The best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors today
“Have Not” sectors were generally those more exposed to Chinese economic growth, like Resources (XJR) (-2.8%) and Energy (XEJ) (-0.67%), and Gold (XGD) (-0.53%). China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee meeting over the weekend did not produce the bazooka of fresh fiscal stimulus measures investors had built into Friday’s gains in these sectors. Who would have thunk it!? 🤔
This excerpt from a Citi note on the meeting says it all:
The RMB12trn implicit local-debt resolution is more decisive than expected, but its direct growth impact could be quite limited, saving local governments’ interest expenses <0.1% of GDP a year. We think the lack of pro-growth measures, especially consumer stimulus, was a disappointment to markets
– Citi, From: “China Economics: Fiscal Details Appear to Fall Short of Market Expectations Despite High Headline Number”, 10 November 2024
If there is a silver lining, Citi do go on to say about the disappointing NPC meeting it was not enough “to dismiss the ‘policy pivot’”. This suggests the broker still feels there exists the possibility the bazooka (or cap gun) could still be unleashed.
Iron ore stocks like BHP Group (-4.1%), Champion Iron (-9.8%), Fortescue (-7.3%), and Rio Tinto (-3.1%) came in for some special attention today, but falls were also otherwise democratically distributed across base and precious metals, uranium, energy and lithium – the prices of each were generally lower (to sharply lower) on Friday.
Elsewhere, a profit downgrade from Endeavour Group (-4.9%) surprised investors (or at least those investors who don’t read my ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans where it has been one of the most featured in the Downtrends lists for several months now). This dragged on Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-1.8%), making it the second worst performing major sector index.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.450 | -$0.22 | -32.8% | -38.8% | +16.9% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | $5.64 | -$0.61 | -9.8% | -15.8% | -26.0% |
Pantoro (PNR) | $0.100 | -$0.01 | -9.1% | -16.7% | +156.4% |
Develop Global (DVP) | $2.21 | -$0.21 | -8.7% | -8.3% | -32.2% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | $5.37 | -$0.46 | -7.9% | -18.1% | -25.8% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $18.12 | -$1.43 | -7.3% | -6.9% | -21.6% |
The A2 Milk Company (A2M) | $4.92 | -$0.36 | -6.8% | -23.7% | +24.9% |
Lotus Resources (LOT) | $0.240 | -$0.015 | -5.9% | -12.7% | +9.1% |
Endeavour Group (EDV) | $4.50 | -$0.23 | -4.9% | -8.7% | -8.7% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.805 | -$0.04 | -4.7% | +27.8% | +403.1% |
Deterra Royalties (DRR) | $3.56 | -$0.16 | -4.3% | -7.3% | -24.6% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | $11.01 | -$0.47 | -4.1% | -9.1% | -4.0% |
BHP Group (BHP) | $41.63 | -$1.77 | -4.1% | -4.1% | -6.9% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $36.95 | -$1.52 | -4.0% | -27.5% | -37.6% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | $0.980 | -$0.04 | -3.9% | -14.8% | -41.0% |
Elders (ELD) | $8.65 | -$0.32 | -3.6% | +0.2% | +39.5% |
Bannerman Energy (BMN) | $2.85 | -$0.1 | -3.4% | -13.1% | +15.9% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | $0.900 | -$0.03 | -3.2% | -2.2% | +10.4% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.520 | -$0.05 | -3.2% | -1.3% | -20.4% |
Rio Tinto (RIO) | $119.47 | -$3.84 | -3.1% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
The worst performing stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors today
Economy
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Later this week
Tuesday
10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment October (6.2% September)
10:30 AUS NAB Business Confidence October (-2 September)
Wednesday
11:30 AUS Wage Price Index September quarter (+0.9% q/q forecast vs +0.8% q/q in June quarter)
Thursday
00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) October (+0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. in September)
10:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks
11:30 AUS Employment change October (+25,200 jobs forecast vs +64,100 jobs in September), Unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.1% in September)
Friday
00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index October (PPI) (+0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. in September)
07:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks
12:30 CHN Data Dump:
New Home Prices m/m (-0.7% m/m previous)
Industrial Production y/y (+5.5% y/y forecast vs +5.4% y/y previous)
Retail Sales y/y (+3.8% y/y forecast vs +3.2% y/y previous)
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.5% ytd/y forecast vs +3.4% ytd/y previous)
Unemployment Rate (steady at 5.1%)
Saturday
00:30 USA Core Retail Sales October (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in September)
Latest News
Data Insights cxo gl1
Lithium prices have bottomed: These are the highest rated ASX lithium stocks
Mon 11 Nov 24, 1:35pm (AEDT)
Technical Analysis 360 all
ChartWatch ASX Scans: Life360, Aristocrat, Appen, Crypto Innovators ETF, Iperionx, JB Hi-Fi, Pointsbet, Polymetals, Tasmea, Titomic
Mon 11 Nov 24, 9:00am (AEDT)
Market Wraps
Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Dow mark best week this year, China stimulus disappoints
Mon 11 Nov 24, 8:41am (AEDT)
Market Wraps anz apx
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 can't do any wrong, first Trump, now falling yields and China stimulus hopes help stocks close in on record
Fri 08 Nov 24, 5:55pm (AEDT)
Data Insights bhp fmg
Is it time to bet on iron ore miners like Fortescue, BHP and Rio Tinto?
Fri 08 Nov 24, 11:35am (AEDT)
Technical Analysis amp anz
ChartWatch ASX Scans: Credit Corp, Computershare, Helia, Hansen Technologies, QBE, Titomic, Tryptamine Therapeutics, Xero, Droneshield
Fri 08 Nov 24, 9:00am (AEDT)
More News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+14.7% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, probably started as Trump-Red Sweep tech rally, add in
The Australian article on Friday, equals a combination of speculative buying and at least some short covering in what was a horrific downtrend
+12.5% Novonix (NVX) - NOVONIX and Stellantis Sign Binding Offtake Agreement
+10.2% Pointsbet (PBH) - Response to Media Speculation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+9.8% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, but this AFR article from Nov 7 likely helped spark this latest rally (paywall), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+6.1% Appen (APX) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - Mr Stuart Davis and Change of Director's Interest Notice - Ms Robin Low (participation in Share Purchase Plan), but also some Trump-Red Sweep tech rally, plus US earnings, plus rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+5.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news since 8 Nov First lithium hydroxide production at downstream plant, solid gain in benchmark lithium carbonate futures contract in China today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+4.7% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+4.0% HMC Capital (HMC) - Acquisition of iseek and DigiCo Platform Update and Acquisition of iseek Data Centre Platform, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+3.9% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Clarity and Nucleus RadioPharma sign MSA
+3.4% SRG Global (SRG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
+3.1% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈
Trading lower
-32.8% Resolute Mining (RSG) - Company Statement regarding Mali (another sovereign risk casualty - Bullish on Gold? The case for bullion and gold ETFs over ASX gold stocks!)
-11.3% Infomedia (IFM) - Revised Revenue Guidance Range, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
-10.0% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, generally tough day for ASX gold stocks even without foreign government intervention in projects!
-9.8% Champion Iron (CIA) - No news, generally tough day for ASX iron ore stocks on disappointment over lack of meaningful stimulus measures announced at weekend's China NPC meeting, lower iron ore price today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
-9.1% Pantoro (PNR) - November 2024 Investor Presentation, but ditto tough day for gold stocks generally
-8.7% Develop Global (DVP) - No news, ditto resources stocks struggling in general today on China stimulus disappointment, also LME metals prices generally sharply lower on Friday
-7.9% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most featured charts in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
-7.6% Clearview Wealth (CVW) - Continued negative response to Friday's 2024 AGM Addresses to Shareholders and proceedings and Thursday's Response to ASX Price Query, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends
-7.3% Fortescue (FMG) - Ditto lousy day for ASX iron ore stocks, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
-6.8% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
-5.9% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
-4.9% Endeavour Group (EDV) - F25 First Quarter Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most featured charts in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
-4.3% Deterra Royalties (DRR) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder, ditto lousy day for ASX iron ore stocks, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
-4.1% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉
Broker Notes
Amaero International (3DA)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60
The A2 Milk Company (A2M)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.04
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $74.00 from $59.00
ANZ Group (ANZ)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.25 from $25.00
Retained at underweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.50
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.80 from $27.50
Downgraded to reduce from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $25.29 from $26.13
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.50
Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $32.00
APA Group (APA)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.13 from $8.23
Avita Medical (AVH)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.60 from $3.60
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.56
Credit Corp Group (CCP)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.62 from $18.01
Cochlear (COH)
Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $332.00 from $280.00
CSL (CSL)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $320.00
Domain Australia (DHG)
Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.45
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $30.70 from $33.20
Endeavour Group (EDV)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.18
Fortescue (FMG)
Initiated at neutral at CICC; Price Target: $18.10
GQG Partners (GQG)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.35
IPH (IPH)
Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.40
Incitec Pivot (IPL)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.10
Jumbo Interactive (JIN)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.70
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.50
Lindsay Australia (LAU)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.15
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50
News Corporation (NWS)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $52.00
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $50.00
Orica (ORI)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.50
Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.80 from $6.40
REA Group (REA)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $258.00 from $239.00
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $249.00 from $245.00
Upgraded to underweight from sell at Jarden; Price Target: $181.00 from $177.00
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $210.00 from $204.00
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $240.00 from $225.00
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $268.00 from $263.00
Ramsay Health Care (RHC)
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.40
Stockland (SGP)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00
Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.50
Woodside Energy Group (WDS)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $26.90 from $27.20
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.50 from $26.50
WEB Travel Group (WEB)
Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.70 from $7.00
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
SLH | Silk Logistics Ho... | $2.07 | +40.82% |
NAG | Nagambie Resource... | $0.02 | +33.33% |
EQN | Equinox Resources... | $0.21 | +27.27% |
OLL | Openlearning Ltd | $0.02 | +25.00% |
FG1 | FLYNN Gold Ltd | $0.037 | +23.33% |
View all top gainers
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
FCG | Freedom Care Grou... | $0.037 | -36.21% |
RSG | Resolute Mining Ltd | $0.45 | -32.84% |
CSX | Cleanspace Holdin... | $0.37 | -24.49% |
MKR | Manuka Resources Ltd | $0.03 | -21.05% |
MNC | Merino & Co. Ltd | $0.83 | -20.95% |
View all top fallers
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
SLH | Silk Logistics Ho... | $2.07 | +40.82% |
AD1DB | AD1 Holdings Ltd | $0.056 | +12.00% |
TZN | Terramin Australi... | $0.10 | +11.11% |
BTR | Brightstar Resour... | $0.027 | +10.20% |
PBH | Pointsbet Holding... | $0.975 | +10.17% |
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52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
FCG | Freedom Care Grou... | $0.037 | -36.21% |
FTZ | Fertoz Ltd | $0.016 | -15.79% |
CDR | Codrus Minerals Ltd | $0.017 | -15.00% |
TKM | Trek Metals Ltd | $0.026 | -13.33% |
CCM | Cadoux Ltd | $0.042 | -12.50% |
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Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
PCI | Perpetual Credit ... | $1.155 | -0.86% |
WVOL | Ishares MSCI Worl... | $41.81 | +1.21% |
IPX | Iperionx Ltd | $4.15 | +9.79% |
GCI | Gryphon Capital I... | $2.04 | 0.00% |
VVLU | Vanguard Global V... | $73.58 | +0.66% |
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Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
VEA | Viva Energy Group... | $2.56 | -2.66% |
RSG | Resolute Mining Ltd | $0.45 | -32.84% |
SMP | Smartpay Holdings... | $0.615 | 0.00% |
DMP | Domino's PIZZA En... | $30.02 | -1.57% |
CPV | Clearvue Technolo... | $0.27 | -1.82% |
View all RSI oversold
As a technical analyst, I watch the charts of most major commodities very closely. As an avid analyst of ASX commodities stocks, it is prudent to also chart the commodities those stocks aim to produce. (If you’re interested in following my commodities technical analysis, be sure to read the ChartWatch section of the Evening Wrap I write daily for Market Index.)
Lithium is one commodity I watch particularly closely, having charted the prices of several major lithium minerals by hand since 2021. It was in that year lithium minerals prices were beginning to rocket, and so too were the share prices of most ASX lithium stocks.
As a trend follower, I knew I had to have detailed lithium minerals price charts to analyse – but I found it was nearly impossible to get freely available or low-cost historical price data – let alone actual price charts showing enough price history to conduct my analysis. It was, however, easy enough to obtain free end-of-day data from reputable data providers such as SMM. So, I decided to begin manually collecting and collating this data myself.
The lithium minerals price charts I collated were particularly valuable as the price of each lithium mineral peaked in late 2022, and by early 2023, each chart I monitored had flagged the end of its respective long term uptrend. I appeared in several media outlets at the time calling the end of the lithium bull market, and not long after, I called that a bear market in lithium had begun. The rest is history.
Lithium Carbonate Index SMM chart
Fast forward to today, and I am finally seeing some signs that lithium prices are bottoming out. They are nowhere near transitioning to a bull market – which I classify as the transition to a long term uptrend based on my technical model (the price must be trading above the long term trend ribbon and the long term trend ribbon is acting as dynamic demand - see my Technical Analysis Primer for more details).
To illustrate my claim that lithium prices are “bottoming out” but are nowhere near trading in a bull market, note that in the chart above of the Lithium Carbonate Index, and in the chart below of benchmark Lithium Carbonate futures. Note that we’re not even observing a short term uptrend yet in either – let alone long term uptrends!
Lithium Carbonate Futures January 2025, GFEX (back-adjusted) chart
But, with short term trend ribbons neutralised in each chart, and with the price again trading above the ribbon for the Lithium Carbonate Index and showing rising peaks and rising troughs for each, I can say the short term trend for each is neutral. Ergo: the bottom is in for now.
Clearly, one would have to be very brave (or be able to predict the future) to be able to say the official bear market low is in – for me it’s just too early to tell using my model. To do so, I’d need to see the charts above trading above their respective long term trend ribbons, and at least one instance where those ribbons are acting as dynamic demand (again, Primer for definitions!)
Notice on the way down, just how effective my long term trend ribbon was at acting as dynamic supply, that is, at impeding upward price action and beating down any rallies. In my experience, it is foolish to mess with that long term downtrend ribbon!
There are other signs at least a short term bottom is in for lithium minerals. Note that S&P Global Platts Australian Spodumene 6% is also trading above a neutralised short term trend ribbon, and it’s also showing rising troughs. (FYI, there isn’t a long term trend ribbon here yet because I only started collecting and charting the data for this one in late 2023.)
Spodumene 6% Australia, S&P Global Platts chart
The final piece of the puzzle is perhaps the chart of the Lithium Hydroxide Index, it remains an absolute trainwreck – failing to notch even a single daily uptick in over 6 months now! I suggest at least some kind of turnaround here is required to call the end of the current bear market in lithium minerals.
Lithium Hydroxide Index SMM chart
As you can see, there are a few moving parts to the lithium minerals technical analysis puzzle. I prefer to ignore all market fundamentals – putting them down to mere noise. When the market fundamentals improve, so too will the balance between demand versus supply in the market – and prices will dutifully rise.
Until then, as always, I continue to trust the trends (or lack thereof for now).
September quarterlies are in…
Let’s change gears from lithium minerals to ASX lithium stocks. Each of the major ASX lithium producers, as well as those exploring for lithium and those currently developing a lithium project, have just released their September quarter results. The big brokers and research houses have had some time to review those results and have released detailed research reports containing relevant ratings and price targets tweaks.
If lithium prices are indeed bottoming out, and with newly updated broker data, I put to you this is the perfect time to answer the question: Which ASX lithium stock is most highly rated by the brokers?
So, let’s review the ratings and price target changes for each major ASX lithium stock in light of their September quarter results, and I’ll also provide a brief technical analysis overview for each in an attempt to bring the technicals and the fundamentals together ⚖️.
All chart analysis and upside/downside to consensus (average) price targets are based upon closing prices on Friday 8 November.
Pilbara minerals (PLS) chart
The PLS chart shows a fledgling short term uptrend but a very well established long term downtrend. The short term uptrend ribbon is acting as a zone of short term dynamic demand and the long term trend ribbon is acting as a zone of long term dynamic supply.
The price action is rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., an indication of short term demand-side control), but the candles are still too mixed for me to be able to call a convincing demand-side market is in place in the short term.
I can say that the overall technicals point to general equilibrium here, that is, the demand and supply sides of the market appear to be fairly evenly matched. The elephant in the room for PLS remains the long term trend ribbon. It has proven effective at killing promising rallies in the past – most recently to 3.41 following the announcement of CATL lepidolite production cuts and China stimulus measures.
A close below the major point of demand at 2.83 would likely realign the short term trend with the prevailing long term downtrend, and threatens a potentially a deeper price decline to probe demand towards the 2.31 major point of demand.
As with many of the charts we’re about to see, I really have no interest here until the price can close above the long term trend ribbon (preferably it is transitioned to at least neutral) and the long term trend ribbon has begun acting as a zone of dynamic demand.
I am happy to miss the first 20-30% or more of the next lithium bull market just to be sure that the long term trend has changed. My theory is that if that next bull is to deliver returns of 200% or 300%, then what’s the big deal of missing the first 20% or 30% if it saves me being stuck in a dud or losing trade for months or years?
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) Broker Consensus vs September Quarter Results
For each of the tables below, all ratings and targets are taken from broker research notes since July 1 (to keep them current). To obtain a stock’s Broker Consensus Rating, I assign a value of +1 to any rating better than HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT, a value of 0 for any rating equivalent to HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT, and a value of -1 to any rating worse than HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT.
I then take the average of all assigned rating values and assign a Broker Consensus Rating of BUY to values greater than +0.5, a rating of HOLD for values between -0.5 and +0.5, and a rating of SELL for values less than -0.5.
PLS’s broker consensus rating is +0.23 (up from +0.15 prior to September quarterly results) resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of HOLD. Its consensus (average) target price is $3.00 (down from $3.04 prior to September quarterly results). This suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 0.5% undervalued based upon the closing price on Friday 8 November of $2.98.
Mineral Resources (MIN) chart
The MIN chart shows a short term downtrend and a very well established long term downtrend. Both short term and long term downtrend ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic supply.
The price action is falling peaks and rising troughs (i.e., equilibrium market), but the candles are predominantly supply-side in nature.
Overall, the MIN technicals are consistent with both short and long term supply-side control.
A close above 42.70 accompanied by a return to rising peaks and rising troughs and a predominance of demand-side candles would recommence the short term uptrend and would likely set up a retest of the excess supply expected at the long term downtrend ribbon.
Alternatively, a close below 33.23 threatens a retest of the 29.51 major point of demand, and below that – potentially a far deeper price decline for the MIN share price.
Mineral Resources (MIN) Broker Consensus vs September Quarter Results
MIN’s broker consensus rating is +0.29 (steady versus prior to September quarterly results) resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of HOLD. Its consensus (average) target price is $47.94 (down from $49.21 prior to September quarterly results). This suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 24.6% undervalued based upon the closing price on Friday 8 November of $38.47.
IGO (IGO) chart
The IGO chart shows a short term downtrend and a very well established long term downtrend. Both short term and long term downtrend ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic supply.
The price action is falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., supply-side market), and the candles are predominantly supply-side in nature.
Overall, the IGO technicals are consistent with both short and long term supply-side control.
A close above 6.03 accompanied by a return to rising peaks and rising troughs and a predominance of demand-side candles would recommence the short term uptrend and would likely set up a retest of the excess supply expected at the long term downtrend ribbon.
Alternatively, a close below the major point of demand at 4.71 threatens a potentially a far deeper price decline for the IGO share price.
IGO (IGO) Broker Consensus vs September Quarter Results
IGO’s broker consensus rating is -0.08 (down from +0.08 prior to September quarterly results) resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of HOLD. Its consensus (average) target price is $5.69 (down from $5.76 prior to September quarterly results). This suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 7.3% undervalued based upon the closing price on Friday 8 November of $5.30.
Liontown Resources (LTR) chart
(This is largely a copy and paste from above. If you think my analysis is disrespectful of the key attributes and nuances of each of these stocks – please remember that these are not unique companies with unique sets of circumstances and opportunities to me. They are just charts: Demand versus Supply. Nothing more. To be interested in buying one of them I require Demand > Supply – and if I cannot see it – then the stock in question might as well not exist!)
The LTR chart shows a neutral term downtrend and a very well established long term downtrend. The long term downtrend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply.
The price action is falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., supply-side market), and the candles are predominantly supply-side in nature.
Overall, the LTR technicals are consistent with neutral short term control, but long term supply-side control.
A close above 0.945 accompanied by a return to rising peaks and rising troughs and a predominance of demand-side candles would recommence the short term uptrend and would likely set up a retest of the excess supply expected at the long term downtrend ribbon.
Alternatively, a close below 0.775 threatens a retest of the 0.565 major point of demand, and below that – potentially a far deeper price decline for the MIN share price.
Liontown Resources (LTR) Broker Consensus vs September Quarter Results
LTR’s broker consensus rating is -0.25 (steady versus prior to September quarterly results) resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of HOLD. Its consensus (average) target price is $0.905 (down from $0.933 prior to September quarterly results). This suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 8.4% undervalued based upon the closing price on Friday 8 November of $0.835.
Rio Tinto (RIO) chart
Ok, ok… technically RIO is an iron ore, copper, aluminium, and some other stuff stock. But given it’s about to swallow a stock that would otherwise have appeared on this list in Arcadium Lithium , and given it has a couple of other long term lithium development projects in its mix – I suggest it now deserves a mention here.
The RIO chart shows a short term uptrend and neutral long term trend. Neither trend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply – but they are potentially acting as a zone of equilibrium (a balance point the price is drawn to).
The price action mixed as are the candles.
Overall, the RIO technicals are consistent with short term and long term equilibrium.
A close above 124.47 accompanied by a return to rising peaks and rising troughs and a predominance of demand-side candles would recommence the short term uptrend and would likely set up a test of the major point of demand at 130.99.
Alternatively, a close below 116.68 threatens a potentially a deeper price decline to probe demand towards the 105.11 major point of demand.
Rio Tinto (RIO) Broker Consensus vs September Quarter Results
RIO’s broker consensus rating is +70 (steady versus prior to September quarterly results) resulting in a Broker Consensus Rating of BUY. Its consensus (average) target price is $129.02 (down from $129.69 prior to September quarterly results). This suggests brokers collectively believe the stock is around 4.6% undervalued based upon the closing price on Friday 8 November of $123.31.
Conclusions
There are several other smaller ASX lithium stocks that have very limited broker coverage that are not discussed here. Note that no other lithium stock had more than three brokers on file since July 1, and for the one that did, there wasn’t any coverage post September quarter results.
This lack of wider coverage/interest from the big brokers for smaller lithium stocks potentially indicates a diminished desire by them to continue to cover the sector in light of 80-90% price declines that are all too common over the last 18 months. I suggest these stocks hardly qualify for a most highly rated list.
Also, for what it’s worth, none of the following lithium stocks presently have charts that would see them make my ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists: Core Lithium , Sayona Mining , Piedmont Lithium , Ioneer , Patriot Battery Metals , Wildcat Resources , Galan Lithium , and Global Lithium Resources G.
Keep an eye on these daily updates because you can be sure that if and when the worm does finally turn for ASX lithium stocks – their charts are going to print the things I consider represent strong excess demand for their shares – and therefore they’ll be all over the Uptrends lists.
As for the brokers, their most highly rated “lithium” stock is Rio Tinto with a Broker Consensus Rating of +0.70. Hey, it’s probably as much a lithium stock as MinRes which comes in second with +0.29. As for consensus target price upside, MinRes is your best bet with 24.6% upside compared to Friday’s close. Liontown is a distant second with 8.4% upside.
The rest are fairly neutrally rated, and roughly also fairly valued according to consensus price targets. I do note though, that consensus price targets have been falling (in line with share prices) for over 12 months now. What will be interesting, is when we achieve that inflection point where both broker ratings and price targets begin to improve – i.e., the so-called “upgrade cycle”.
(Did Pilbara Minerals just start an upgrade cycle...i.e., with respect to its rating...that's the first notch up I've seen in a long time! 🤔)
I don't think we're there yet, but again – be sure to keep an eye on our Broker Consensus page for signs when this begins to occur. At Market Index we have you covered on both the technicals and the fundamentals!
The S&P 500 index surged past the 6,000-point milestone, setting fresh record highs, and small-cap stocks are poised for their best weekly performance since April 2024 as investor optimism surrounding the “Trump trade” continued to fuel a strong risk-on sentiment by the end of a wild week in the market.
All major U.S. indices posted modest gains in midday trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading slightly, soaring beyond the 44,000-point mark. The blue-chip index is set for its best weekly performance in over a year.
Friday's rise in the S&P 500 was powered by the utilities and real estate sectors, which had lagged post-election. Tech stocks took a breather following Thursday's rally.
Tesla Inc. surged 7%, pushing its weekly gains beyond 27% and propelling its market cap past $1 trillion.
This move now places every "Magnificent Seven" tech stock in the trillion-dollar club, with the group's combined market cap topping $17 trillion.
Treasury yields held steady, while the dollar strengthened in response to the Federal Reserve's Thursday 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.5%-4.75%.
Gold softened, eyeing its worst week since late May, as both silver and oil dropped over 2% on the day. Bitcoin edged up 0.8%, extending its weekly gains to over 11%, marking its best week since July.
Friday’s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs
Major Indices | Price | 1-day %chg |
Dow Jones | 43,993.21 | 0.6% |
S&P 500 | 5,998.81 | 0.4% |
Russell 2000 | 2,389.50 | 0.3% |
Nasdaq 100 | 21,124.53 | 0.1% |
According to Benzinga Pro data:
Friday’s Stock Movers
Stocks reacting to earnings reports were:
Read Next:
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
European equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were moving sharply lower late Friday morning, falling 1.5% to 1,333.73 on the S&P Europe Select ADR Index, which is down about 2.5% for the week.
From continental Europe, the gainers were led by 3D printer company Materialise and biotech firm BioNTech (BNTX), which rose 7.5% and 5.8% respectively. They were followed by biopharmaceutical companies Grifols and Cellectis (CLLS), which were up 1.1% each.
The decliners from continental Europe were led by medical device maker EDAP TMS (EDAP) and semiconductor company Sequans Communications , which dropped 6.6% and 4.3% respectively. They were followed by conglomerate Philips and biopharmaceutical company DBV Technologies , which were down 3.6% and 1.2% respectively.
From the UK and Ireland, the gainers were led by biopharmaceutical company Akari Therapeutics and hospitality company InterContinental Hotels Group , which advanced 3.6% and 2.1% respectively. They were followed by cruise line operator Carnival and biopharmaceutical company Mereo BioPharma Group , which increased 1.7% and 0.6% respectively.
The decliners from the UK and Ireland were led by biotech firm Autolus Therapeutics and biopharmaceutical company TC Biopharm , which dropped 6.1% and 6% respectively. They were followed by insurance company Prudential and mining company BHP Group , which lost 5% and 4.9% respectively.
News Corporation NWSA reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of 21 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 31.25% and increased 31.25% year over year.
NWSA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 24.7%.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Revenues of $2.58 billion increased 3.1% year over year and beat the consensus mark by 0.63%. The improvement was driven by growth in the Digital Real Estate Services, Book Publishing and Dow Jones segments.
News Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
News Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | News Corporation Quote
Following first-quarter earnings, NWSA shares were up 0.1% in after-hours trading. NWSA shares have gained 18.8% year to date (YTD), outperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector’s return of 27.6%.
NWSA’s Quarterly Details
Adjusted revenues (which exclude the impact of foreign currency, acquisitions and divestitures) increased 2% year over year.
Total EBITDA increased 14% to $415 million, primarily due to strong contributions from REA Group within the Digital Real Estate Services segment. The increase was partly offset by higher costs at the Subscription Video Services, driven by Hubbl product.
NWSA’s Segment Details
Digital Real Estate Services
Revenues in the Digital Real Estate Services segment increased 13% to $457 million, driven by strong performance at REA Group. Adjusted revenues and adjusted Segment EBITDA increased 11% and 13%, respectively.
Revenues in Move fell 1% to $140 million, mainly due to lower real estate revenues. Representing 77% of total Move revenues, real estate revenues decreased 4% year over year, owing to the continued impact of the macroeconomic environment on the housing market, including higher mortgage rates, which has led to lower lead and transaction volumes.
Based on Move’s internal data, average monthly unique users of Realtor.com’s web and mobile sites grew 2% year over year at 77 million. Lead volume was down 1% year over year.
Revenues at REA Group rose 22% to $318 million, driven by higher Australian residential revenues due to price increases, improved depth penetration, a surge in national listings, a 3% positive impact from foreign currency fluctuations and increased revenue from REA India.
Australian national residential buy listing volumes in the reported quarter increased 7% year over year, with listings in Sydney and Melbourne up 11% and 9%, respectively.
Subscription Video Services
The Subscription Video Services segment’s revenues were $501 million, up 3% year over year, primarily attributed to higher revenues from Kayo and BINGE from increases in both volume and pricing and a 2% favorable impact from foreign currency fluctuation, mostly offset by the impact of fewer residential broadcast subscribers. Adjusted revenues of $490 million were up 1% year over year.
Foxtel Group streaming subscription revenues represented approximately 34% of total circulation and subscription revenues in the fiscal first quarter compared with 30% in the prior-year quarter.
Broadcast subscriber churn in the quarter was 11% compared with 11.4% in the prior-year quarter, driven by a recent price and packaging simplification. Broadcast ARPU increased 4% year over year to A$89 (US$60).
Dow Jones
Revenues at the Dow Jones segment increased 3% year over year to $552 million, driven by an increase in professional information business and higher content licensing revenues. Digital revenues at Dow Jones in the fiscal first quarter represented 82% of total revenues compared with 81% in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted revenues rose 2%.
Circulation and subscription revenues rose 5%, primarily driven by an 8% increase in professional information business revenues, led by 16% growth in Risk & Compliance revenues to $81 million and a jump of 11% in Dow Jones Energy revenues to $68 million.
Circulation revenues inched up 1% year over year due to the continued growth in digital-only subscriptions but was offset by lower print volume. Digital circulation revenues accounted for 72% of circulation revenues for the quarter compared with 70% in the year-ago quarter.
Advertising revenues decreased 7%, primarily due to a 5% decline in digital advertising revenues and a 10% decline in print advertising revenues. Digital advertising accounted for 67% of total advertising revenues compared to 66% in the prior-year quarter.
During the fiscal first quarter, total average subscriptions to Dow Jones’ consumer products were above 5.9 million, representing an 11% increase compared with the year-ago quarter. Digital-only subscriptions to Dow Jones’ consumer products grew 15%.
Total subscriptions to The Wall Street Journal grew 7% year over year to nearly 4.3 million average subscriptions in the quarter. Digital-only subscriptions to The Wall Street Journal grew 10% to more than 3.8 million average subscriptions and represented 90% of its total subscriptions.
Book Publishing
The Book Publishing segment reported revenues of $546 million, which increased 4% year over year from the prior-year quarter’s level, primarily due to higher backlist and digital book sales and improved returns.
Key titles in the quarter included Hillbilly Elegy by J.D. Vance, A Death in Cornwall by Daniel Silva and The Au Pair Affair by Tessa Bailey.
Digital sales rose 15% year over year, driven by a 26% increase in audiobook sales, which benefited from the continued contribution from the Spotify partnership and strong market conditions, as well as a 7% year-over-year increase in e-book sales. Digital sales represented 25% of Consumer revenues compared with 22% in the prior year. Backlist sales represented approximately 64% of Consumer revenues in the quarter compared with 61% in the prior-year quarter.
News Media
Revenues in the News Media segment fell 5% to $521 million, primarily due to lower other revenues generated from the transfer of third-party printing revenue contracts to News UK and DMG’s joint venture, as well as low advertising revenues. Adjusted revenues for the segment decreased 7% compared with the year-ago quarter.
Within the segment, revenues at News Corp Australia decreased 2% due to lower circulation revenues. News UK decreased 9% year over year due to lower advertising revenues.
Circulation and subscription revenues decreased $4 million in the reported quarter, primarily due to lower print volumes partially offset by the cover price increases.
Advertising revenues decreased 5% compared with the prior year, primarily due to lower print advertising at News Corp Australia and a decline in digital advertising at News UK due to a fall in traffic at some mastheads due to platform-related changes.
Digital revenues represented 39% of News Media segment revenues in the fiscal first quarter compared with 37% in the prior-year quarter and represented 37% of the combined revenues of the newspaper mastheads.
As of Sept. 30, 2024, The Times and Sunday Times closing digital subscribers, including the Times Literary Supplement, were 600K compared with 572K in the year-ago quarter. New York Post’s digital network reached 103 million unique users in September 2024 compared with 127 million in the prior year. The Sun’s digital offering reached 80 million global monthly unique users in September 2024 compared with 134 million in the prior year.
Other Financial Aspects
News Corporation ended the fiscal first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.78 billion, borrowings of $2.7 billion and stockholder equity of $8.25 billion.
Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider
NWSA currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Shares of NWSA have gained 26.3% year to date compared with the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector’s increase of 7.4% in the same time frame.
Some other top-ranked stocks from the broader sector that investors can consider are Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. MSGE, Carnival CCL and Flexsteel Industries FLXS, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Shares of MSGE have gained 35.5% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSGE’s fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $978.29 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 1.98%. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.66 per share, which has gained 2 cents over the past 30 days.
Shares of Carnival have gained 27.9% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVL’s 2024 revenues is pegged at $25.19 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 16.63%. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.31 per share, which has increased 2.3% over the past 30 days.
Shares of Flexsteel have gained 217.2% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FLXS’s fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $433.08 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4.92%. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $3.25 per share, which has increased 8.3% over the past 30 days.
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