Final Dip? Dogecoin Correction Could Precede A Record Surge—Analyst

While markets waited on White House Crypto Czar David Sacks to pump their bags, the week’s biggest story slipped beneath the radar. Rather than announce plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the Republicans simply reiterated plans to convene more committees to evaluate crypto legislation.

The highly anticipated news conference was a nothing-burger, and crypto prices tanked in the aftermath.

Still, just before the news conference, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce issued a statement promising a new journey for crypto regulation. According to Peirce, the White House’s newly formed Crypto Task Force would provide regulatory clarity for digital assets and reverse the mistakes made under ex-SEC chair Gary Gensler.

Crucially, the task force is recommending “retroactive relief” for cryptocurrency projects that were crushed by the hand of SEC overreach.

This week’s Crypto Biz newsletter explores the latest statement from the SEC’s “Crypto Mom.” It also looks at Bitwise’s 2025 expectations for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), MicroStrategy’s hodl strategy and the continued growth of real-world assets (RWAs).

SEC is evaluating “retroactive relief” for past crypto offerings

On Feb. 4, Commissioner Peirce issued a statement saying that the SEC is carving out a new path for the digital asset sector, which includes evaluating the security status of certain assets and potentially providing “retroactive relief” for some token offerings that drew the ire of the previous SEC administration.

“It took us a long time to get into this mess, and it is going to take us some time to get out of it,” said Peirce.

Specifically, President Donald Trump’s newly created Crypto Task Force is “recommending Commission action to provide temporary prospective and retroactive relief for coin or token offerings” under certain conditions, said Perice.

Peirce, often referred to as Crypto Mom by the blockchain industry, said, “The status of crypto assets under the securities laws is fundamental to resolving many other questions. The Task Force is working hard to examine different types of crypto assets.”

US regulators said they need more time to decide whether to permit the trading of options tied to Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a Feb. 7 regulatory filing.

The filing was a response to Nasdaq ISE’s July request for permission to list options contracts for BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA). The US Securities and Exchange Commission now has until April 2025 to reach a decision, per the filing.

Nasdaq’s proposed rule change would apply exclusively to options on ETHA, which is the only Ether ETF listed on Nasdaq’s electronic exchange. Others are listed on the New York Stock Exchange’s Arca or Cboe.

Creating an options market for ETH ETFs is an important step toward widespread adoption. Spot Ether ETFs were listed in July 2024 and have proceeded to attract approximately $9 billion in net assets, according to data from The Block.

Options are contracts granting the right to buy or sell — “call” or “put,” in trader parlance — an underlying asset at a certain price.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delayed a decision on Friday on whether to approve BlackRock's proposal to list and trade options on its spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund.

The SEC said it will decide on April 9, 2025, whether to approve or disapprove allowing options trading on the world's largest asset manager's iShares Ethereum Trust, according to the filing.

"The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein," the agency said.

BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF was approved along with eight others in May and began trading over the summer. Later, Nasdaq, on behalf of BlackRock, filed a rule change in August to list and trade options of the iShares Ethereum Trust.

Two letters were filed in response to Nasdaq's proposal. One from Better Markets said that the SEC should "tread carefully" before allowing options trading on either spot bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs and said both were equally volatile. Better Markets is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization working on building a strong financial system and has been critical of crypto.

"Retail investors already lose billions of dollars trading options," Better Markets' Director of Securities Policy Benjamin Schiffrin said in the letter. "Options on spot ether ETPs would only give sophisticated market participants another way to use options trading to take advantage of the retail investors to whom the options will inevitably be marketed."

Also on Friday, the SEC asked for public comments on a proposal from Cboe BZX Exchange Inc., on behalf of Fidelity, to list and trade options on its spot Ethereum ETF. Those comments are due 21 days after being published in the Federal Register.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

What if I told you that the experts are wrong? Over the years several prestigious consulting firms and financial institutions have put out forecasts about the growth of tokenization by the end of the decade. It’s interesting how between all that “expertise,” their ranges vary between $2 trillion (McKinsey) and $16 trillion (BCG). Fourteen trillion dollars is a heck of a lot of spread!

Since 2017, there have been trials to tokenize assets all around the world. Along the way we’ve seen almost every asset class brought on-chain. Today there are more than $50 billion in tokenized stocks, bonds and real estate, with some of the world’s biggest financial institutions, like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Apollo starting to invest serious resources into tokenization. Add in over $200 billion in stablecoins (or what we can call tokenized dollars) and we’ve got one quarter of a trillion dollars in RWAs.

What will it look like when the faucet actually turns on? We believe it looks like going from $250 billion today to $30 trillion in 2030, all thanks to the new crypto clarity in the U.S.

A major boon for America and the world

Whether it’s the Fed, the new Crypto Czar, both houses in Congress, or the President himself, this new administration has understood and embraced the benefits of stablecoins to further improve the dollar dominance in the world.

If the U.S. dollar is the world reserve currency for the Web2 world, why not also for the Web3 world? Simply put, the more people that buy stablecoins, the majority of which are in dollars, the better it is for the U.S.A.

With the right attitude on crypto, we should see market clarity on token classifications (an official taxonomy) and stablecoin market structure in new legislation coming before Congress. Passing such a bill will offer a green light for blockchain to be used in capital markets in the U.S. Previous prediction reports did not factor in this new wave of clarity and government-wide support for crypto, stablecoins, and RWAs.

Stablecoins and yieldcoins (treasury backed tokens) are set to grow significantly from their current $220 billion position, potentially up to $3 to $5 trillion by 2030 if you factor in commercial adoption, digital assets growth, and the demand for yield on-chain.

This RWA use case has not only found product-market fit by crypto users, but it will also become a settlement solution and payment rail for capital markets in general. All assets can now transact on a new, nearly-instantaneous financial operating system using blockchain to go in and out of any tokenized Real World Asset (RWA) or crypto asset using stablecoins.

The tokenization revolution is inevitable. Which is actually what the CEOs of BlackRock and JP Morgan have been openly saying and acting on.

It can’t possibly all be tokenized, can it?

Most critics will laugh at the notion that the over one hundred trillion in stocks or hundreds of trillions in real estate, or trillions in private companies, or trillions in commodities, or trillions in bonds and credit could all be tokenized. In a few years those critics will be saying tokenization is a necessity and that it's the innovation of the century for finance (because it is).

The answer is yes, it can all be tokenized.

It’s more of a question of how fast will each asset class take advantage of migrating on chain. Some assets will feel more pressure to adapt while other assets are so large it doesn’t take much to move the needle to suddenly get to trillions either via new asset issuance, tokenized asset growth, or simply legacy assets migrating on-chain.

My conversations with banks, asset managers, crypto exchanges, and industry leaders tells me that there is a renewed spirit for asset tokenization with the difference being that the traditional finance sector and regulators now better understands the benefits of blockchain technology, implying that the growth of asset tokenization will happen faster than previously forecast.

Here are some other reasons our forecasts are higher than previous estimates:

When we look at some of the past forecasts, some of them like HSBC and Northern Trust use a methodology that relies on calculating the size of the asset class and applying a nominal percentage of adoption or in their case a range of 5-10% of total assets. Others like Standard Chartered allude to specific asset classes growing faster than others or in their case citing 14% of $30 trillion of assets by 2034 coming from trade finance. STM’s methodology breaks down the eight largest asset classes in the world and considers regulatory and government support as a key factor of growth. Imagine if California’s title registry went on-chain. That’s a residential home market of $10 trillion that could be put on a blockchain virtually overnight. Thanks to new market clarity in the U.S. and the success of stablecoins, we expect faster blockchain adoption around the world, leading to $50 trillion in RWA annual trading by the end of the decade.

It’s time to open the faucet. Happy tokenizing!

Please see the full report here.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has commented on the drastic disconnect between professional and retail sentiment in his recent social media post.

According to Hougan, professional investors are "extraordinarily bullish." Meanwhile, retail sentiment is the worst it has been in several years. "It's like living in two completely separate worlds," he said.

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, has also noted such a trend.

"We've never had more bullish news in our industry's history! Yet the ratio of positive news to sentiment/price is basically infinity," he said.

Yet, Dorman is convinced that this is largely just a social media phenomenon, and traditional finance is moving to embrace crypto. "We are tiny compared to them, and still largely irrelevant," he noted.

As reported by U.Today, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin ETF inflows would be bigger in 2025 compared to the previous year. The firm also expects the largest cryptocurrency to surge to $200,000 as soon as this year.

Bitcoin has so far repeatedly struggled to gain a foothold above the $100,000 level, which might be contributing to the high level of apathy. It is currently trading at $98,196.

Memecoins plunge

Some have suggested that the grim retail sentiment might be due to the fact that your average Joe has a lot of exposure to meme cryptocurrencies, which have taken a severe beating.

Solana-based dogwifhat (WIF) is down more than 85%. Bonk (BONK) has collapsed by 70%. Meanwhile, Shiba Inu has dropped out of the top 20.

XRP has shown resilience amid the market’s volatility and uncertainty, standing strong as it rebounds from recent lows. The price is now over 33% up from Monday’s low, signaling renewed momentum and a potential push toward higher levels. Despite ongoing turbulence in the broader crypto market, the price appears to be regaining strength, with investors closely watching its next move.

Top analyst Ali Martinez shared on-chain data revealing a key trend that has unfolded during this recent market dip. According to Martinez, whales seized the opportunity, accumulating over 520 million coins. This significant accumulation suggests that large investors remain confident in XRP’s long-term potential and could be positioned for a major price move in the coming weeks.

With XRP recovering from its recent lows and strong demand emerging at critical levels, traders are now eyeing a breakout above key resistance zones. The coming days will determine whether it can sustain its momentum and extend its rally. If whales continue to accumulate, the price could be setting up for a significant surge as market sentiment shifts toward bullish territory.

XRP Whales Prepare For A Rally

XRP has been one of the strongest-performing cryptocurrencies in the market since last November, consistently holding key levels despite volatility. As the broader market consolidates before the next big move, XRP appears well-positioned to extend its rally. Analysts are calling for a bullish cycle, citing technical and on-chain data supporting a significant price increase in the coming weeks.

Top crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently shared key on-chain metrics on X, revealing that whales took advantage of the recent market dip to accumulate 520 million XRP. This large-scale buying activity indicates strong confidence from institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals who see XRP as a valuable asset in the current market structure. While retail investors often panic and sell during corrections, whales and institutions strategically accumulate, setting the stage for a potential price surge.

Historically, whale accumulation during market downturns has been a strong indicator of future rallies, as these large players tend to position themselves ahead of major moves. The fact that XRP has bounced over 33% from Monday’s low reinforces the idea that strong hands are buying at key levels.

With the altcoin showing strength and buyers stepping in at crucial levels, analysts believe a breakout above supply zones is imminent. If the price continues to hold strong, the next move could take the price beyond key resistance, pushing it toward multi-year highs. The $2.70 and $2.90 levels remain critical resistance zones and once cleared, XRP could enter a parabolic phase.

Price Holding Strong Amid Market Volatility

XRP has experienced significant volatility in recent days, with sharp price swings shaking market sentiment. Currently, XRP stands at $2.37, showing resilience despite recent market turbulence. Holding above the crucial $2.30 support level is essential for maintaining bullish momentum and initiating a recovery into higher supply zones. This level has historically acted as a key demand area, and if it holds, XRP could see a strong rebound.

For bulls to regain control and confirm a trend reversal, XRP must push above the $2.72 mark. This price level represents a key supply zone, and breaking above it would signal short-term strength, allowing for a potential rally toward higher resistance levels. If buyers step in with strong volume, XRP could aim for a breakout above $3.00, setting the stage for further price appreciation.

However, if XRP fails to sustain support at $2.30, bearish pressure could intensify, leading to a deeper retracement. A drop below this level would likely send XRP toward the psychological $2.00 mark, where buyers would need to step in to prevent further downside. For now, all eyes are on whether XRP can reclaim key levels and maintain its bullish structure in the coming days.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView