Front Month Nymex Crude Rose 1.24% to Settle at $70.10 — Data Talk

Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for Jan. delivery gained 29.00 cents per million British thermal units, or 7.93% to $3.9460 per million British thermal units today

• Largest one day dollar gain since Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022
• Largest one day percentage gain since Monday, Nov. 11, 2024
• Up five of the past six sessions
• A new 52-week high
• Highest settlement value since Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023
• Up 150.54% from its 52-week low of $1.575 hit Tuesday, March 26, 2024
• Rose 54.75% from 52 weeks ago
• Up 150.54% from its 2024 settlement low of $1.575 hit Tuesday, March 26, 2024
• Off 74.34% from its record high of $15.378 hit Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2005
• Month-to-date it is up 17.34%
• Year-to-date it is up $1.432 or 56.96%

All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.

Source: Dow Jones Market Data

Front Month Nymex ULSD for Jan. delivery lost 0.48 cent per gallon, or 0.22% to $2.2215 today

• Down for four consecutive sessions
• Down 3.35 cents or 1.49% over the last four sessions
• Largest four day dollar and percentage decline since Monday, Dec. 9, 2024
• Longest losing streak since Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, when the market fell for four straight sessions
• Down six of the past seven sessions
• Lowest settlement value since Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024
• Off 25.06% from its 52-week high of $2.9642 hit Friday, Feb. 9, 2024
• Up 7.94% from its 52-week low of $2.058 hit Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024
• Down 16.76% from 52 weeks ago
• Off 25.06% from its 2024 settlement high of $2.9642 hit Friday, Feb. 9, 2024
• Up 7.94% from its 2024 settlement low of $2.058 hit Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024
• Off 56.74% from its record high of $5.1354 hit Thursday, April 28, 2022
• Month-to-date it is up 1.30%
• Year-to-date it is down 33.16 cents or 12.99%

All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.

Source: Dow Jones Market Data

Oil futures recover the previous session's losses in light trade and with little news ahead of the Christmas holiday. Middle East political risk is likely to play less of a role in crude-price movements as escalation gradually subsides "with the successive losses that Iran is suffering on various regional fronts," XS.com market analyst Samer Hasn says in a note. In China, markets are waiting for the various stimulus packages to crystallize and lift oil demand, he adds. WTI settles up 1.2%, at $70.10 a barrel. Brent rises 1.4%, to $73.65 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

U.S. natural gas futures settle higher in light pre-Christmas trade, with the January contract soaring ahead of Friday's expiration as weather forecasts point to a cold start for the New Year. Front-month gains are due "not only to short-term weather expectations but rollover dynamics and other non-fundamental factors," Gelber & Associates says in a note. "With that said, the soon-to-be-prompt February contract's gains are notable in their own right, hovering above November's highs and just below those made in early October." The January contract settles up 7.9%, at $3.946/mmBtu, a nearly two-year high. Gas for February delivery rises 4.7%, to $3.504/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Livestock futures are little changed as trading closes earlier on Christmas Eve. AgResource estimates that the U.S. feeder cattle inventory outside of feedlots is at 21.4 million head, down 6% from a year ago. The firm says in a note it is "likely the tightest inventory since the 1960s." Live cattle close at $1.874 and lean hogs at 84.38 cents. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com)

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH25) today is up +0.07 (+0.36%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH25) closed up +6.20 (+1.21%).

Sugar prices today are trading higher, consolidating mildly above last Thursday's lows, when NY sugar posted a 3-month low and London sugar posted a 4-month low. Sugar prices today are trading higher but the market remains wary ahead of Unica's report expected later this week of Brazil's sugar production in the first half of December.

Sugar prices fell last Thursday after India's Food Secretary Chopra said that India may allow sugar exports if there is a surplus once domestic ethanol blending requirements are met. The Indian government currently estimates a sugar surplus of about 1 MMT this season.

Sugar prices have also been undercut by the weakness in Brazilian real (^USDBRL), which encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. The real on Monday fell -1.7% and consolidated just mildly above last Thursday's record low against the dollar.

An improved global supply outlook is undercutting sugar prices. On November 21, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) reduced its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -2.51 MMT, compared to an August forecast of -3.58 MMT. ISO also raised its 2023/24 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.31 MMT from an August projection of +200,000 MT.

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On October 29, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board projected that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production would jump by +18% y/y to 10.35 MMT. Thailand produced 8.77 MMT of sugar in the 2023/24 season that ended in April. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.

Reduced sugar output in India is supportive of prices. The National Federation of India Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd reported Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-Dec 15 fell -18% y/y to 6.1 MMT.

Sugar output from Brazil's Center-South has recently declined, which is a bullish price factor. Unica reported last Thursday that cumulative 2024/25 Center-South sugar output through November is down -3.7% y/y to 39.361 MMT.

Drought and excessive heat earlier this year caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil's top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo. Sugar cane industry group Orplana said that as many as 2,000 fire outbreaks affected up to 80,000 hectares of planted sugarcane in Sao Paulo. Green Pool Commodity Specialists noted that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, cut its 2024/25 Brazil sugar production estimate from November 21 to 44 MMT from a previous forecast of 46 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.

In a supportive factor for sugar prices, India's Food Ministry on August 30 lifted restrictions on sugar mills producing ethanol for the 2024/25 year that starts November, which may prolong India's sugar export curbs. Last December, India ordered sugar mills to stop using sugarcane to produce ethanol for the 2023/24 supply year to boost its sugar reserves. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, on October 3, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) said India will have 2 MMT of sugar to export next season and urged the government to lift its current sugar export restrictions.

The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) on September 26 projected India's 2024/25 sugar production would fall by -2% y/y to 33.3 MMT and that India's 2023/24 sugar reserves will be at 8.4 MMT on September 30, compared with a May projection of 9.1 MMT.

As a supportive factor for sugar prices, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on August 30 forecasted 2024/25 global sugar production of 179.3 MMT, down -1.1% y/y from 181.3 MMT in 2023/24.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released November 21, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.5% y/y to a record 186.619 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 179.63 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would decline -6.1% y/y to 45.427 MMT.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

• Navigating Uncertainty: What I'm Watching In The Grain Markets To Wrap Up 2024
• Who Else Wants to Know the Mystery Behind the Corn Market?
• What Did the Widow Maker (aka Natural Gas) See Overnight?
• Grain Markets Under Pressure: Corn Struggles to Detach from Soybean Sell-off