Gold Futures Hit Fresh High on Weaker U.S. Inflation, Economic Volatility

World climate is expected to steer away from La Niña within the next month, says the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in a notice. Climate is expected to turn neutral heading into the spring, with a 62% chance of it persisting through August 2025. But the NOAA says that certainty is hard to come by at this point of the year. "As is typical for forecasts made in the spring, there is large forecast uncertainty at longer time horizons," it says. A neutral climate means that farmers planting their crops this spring don't have a clear weather pattern they can potentially plan for. A La Niña system typically means cooler and wetter conditions in the northern U.S., with dry and hot conditions in the south. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

A potential resumption of Russian gas flows to Europe wouldn't only impact TTG gas prices, but also Asian LNG markets, Rabobank's Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit say. Recent strength in the Japan Korea Marker LNG benchmark in Asia doesn't properly reflect market fundamentals, but instead mirrors spikes in European TTF prices, according to the strategists. "The JKM front-month price traded between $12.30/MMBtu and $14.07/MMBtu over the last 12-day period, in close correlation with the TTF gas market." If Russian gas flows to Europe were to resume, LNG demand in the region would decrease, leading to lower LNG prices in Asia. Plus, an easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports could free up LNG that was previously destined for Asia, Rabobank says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Petroleum futures were down at midday Thursday on continuing fears that U.S. tariffs could lead to a trade war along with a new warning over a potential surplus in global crude oil supply.

The NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate crude contract was off by 85cts to $66.85/bbl as of 12:10 p.m. ET and the May WTI contract was down by about the same to $66.55/bbl.

The ICE May Brent crude contract was 65cts lower at $70.30/bbl and June Brent was down 60cts to $69.85/bbl.

Both oil benchmarks had rebounded by $1-2/bbl in the previous two sessions after having sold off due to concerns that approved and threatened U.S. tariffs would likely weaken global economic growth and depress energy demand.

Refined products tracked declines in crude oil. The NYMEX April ULSD contract was 2.1cts lower at $2.185/gal and May ULSD futures were down by 2.05cts to $2.155/gal.

The NYMEX April RBOB contract was off by 0.5ct to $2.145/gal and May RBOB was 0.7ct lower at $2.1475/gal.

President Trump in a social media post on Thursday threatened to impose 200% tariffs on alcohol from the European Union, one day after the EU said it planned to impose a 50% import tax on U.S. whiskey and other products starting on April 1 in retaliation for tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Also on Thursday, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that the macroeconomic conditions underpinning its oil-demand projections have weakened over the past month due to global trade tensions, and the agency forecast a larger-than-expected oil supply surplus if OPEC+ member nations raise output beyond April.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

• Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeff Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com

Cotton futures dipped below 67 cents per pound, retreating from three-week highs reached on March 12, as a stronger dollar and profit-taking following a positive weekly export sales report weighed on prices.

Declining oil prices added further pressure.

The latest USDA weekly export sales report showed cotton exports reaching 403,500 running bales, a marketing-year high, up from the previous week and 39% above the four-week average.

Meanwhile, the USDA’s March WASDE report for 2024-25 raised the global export outlook by 200,000 bales to 42.71 million, despite ongoing global uncertainties.

The report also projected a 500,000-bale increase in global cotton production to 120.96 million bales, as higher output in China offsets declines in Pakistan and Argentina.

Additionally, global domestic cotton consumption was revised upward to 116.54 million bales from the previous estimate of 115.95 million bales.

The EU's decision to delay the release of its roadmap for phasing out Russian fossil fuels doesn't signal a retreat, according to Rabobank strategists. "It is rather a strategic move, as the bloc is still in negotiations with the U.S. about tariffs and future LNG contracts," Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit say. "It would not make sense to present a plan about the future of Russian gas if the future of U.S. gas has not yet been defined." The potential resumption of some Russian flows to Europe is still seen as the biggest downside risk to gas prices, according to the strategists. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract currently trades 0.1% lower at 42.21 euros a megawatt hour. Rabobank forecasts TTF prices to remain in the low 40s in the second and third quarters, but warns that a return of Russian gas could push prices down to the low 30s. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Orders for new dry-bulk ships dropped 92% year-over-year in the first two months of 2025 to the lowest in at least 30 years, shipowners' association Bimco says. While contracting was low in January, no new bulkers at all were ordered in February. "Weak freight rates, high newbuilding prices, long lead times and uncertainty are likely discouraging contracting," says Filipe Gouveia, Bimco's shipping analysis manager. Strong contracting for containerships and tankers, which use the same shipyards, has kept newbuild prices high and extended lead times, Bimco adds. (mark.long@wsj.com)