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Dollar is trading slightly lower today as markets await Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President. Attention is focused on his inaugural speech, expected to confirm his policy priorities.
Statistics Canada is set to release its latest inflation report for December, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this Tuesday. Early forecasts suggest headline inflation may have risen by 1.8% compared to the same month of the previous year.
In addition to the headline figures, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish its core CPI data, which excludes more unpredictable items like food and energy. For context, November’s core CPI showed a 0.1% contraction compared to the previous month but showed a 1.6% increase from a year earlier. Meanwhile, headline inflation for November rose just 1.9% annually and actually came in flat on a monthly basis.
These inflation numbers are under a microscope, particularly because of their potential impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The BoC’s approach to interest rates plays a critical role here. The central bank has already reduced its policy rate by 175 basis points since it began easing in June 2024, bringing it down to 3.25% on December 11.
On the currency front, the CAD has faced significant challenges, losing value steadily. This has pushed the USD/CAD exchange rate to its highest levels since May 2020, breaching the 1.4400 mark. Markets will be paying close attention to Tuesday’s data to gauge what might come next for the Canadian economy and its currency.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points on December 11 to 3.25% was a close call, according to the meeting Minutes published on December 23. Some council members favoured a smaller 25 basis point reduction, leading to significant debate. Governor Tiff Macklem signalled that future cuts would likely be more gradual, marking a shift from earlier messaging about the need for steady easing. Proponents of the larger cut cited concerns about weaker growth and downside inflation risks, though not all recent data supported such an aggressive move. The decision highlights the central bank’s careful navigation of economic uncertainties.
Previewing the data release, analysts at TD Securities note: “We look for CPI to edge higher to 2.0% YoY as prices fall by 0.2% MoM. Seasonal headwinds to core goods will weigh heavily on a MoM basis, while food prices and a softer Loonie provide a source of strength. Core inflation should slow by 0.2pp to 2.45% YoY on average as CPI-trim/median overshoot BoC projections for Q4, but we expect the BoC to look through this in January.”
Canada's inflation report for December is set to be released on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, but the Canadian Dollar's reaction will likely depend on whether the data delivers any major surprises. If the figures align with expectations, they are unlikely to influence the Bank of Canada’s current rate outlook.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD has been navigating a consolidative range since mid-December, reaching multi-year highs just beyond the 1.4500 hurdle. This rise has been primarily driven by a robust rebound in the US Dollar (USD), largely attributed to the so-called “Trump trade,” which continues to exert significant pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, suggests that given the current scenario of persistent gains in the Greenback and heightened volatility in crude oil prices, further weakness in the Canadian Dollar should remain in the pipeline for the time being.
“Bullish attempts should lead USD/CAD to another potential visit to the 2024 peak of 1.4485 (January 20), ahead of the highest level reached in 2020 at 1.4667 (March 19),” Piovano adds.
On the downside, there is an initial support zone at the 2025 low of 1.4278 (January 6), prior to the provisional 55-day SMA at 1.4177 and the psychological 1.4000 threshold. Down from here comes the November low of 1.3823 (November 6), closely followed by the more significant 200-day SMA at 1.3816. Should USD/CAD break below this level, it could trigger additional selling pressure, initially targeting the September low of 1.3418 (September 25), Piovano notes.
Bitcoin held a retreat from a record as traders awaited crypto policy directives from US President Donald Trump following his inauguration.
The market was expecting an executive order in support of the digital-asset sector but it didn’t appear in Trump’s blitz of actions on his first day in office. He focused instead on topics such as immigration, trade, energy and TikTok.
The original cryptocurrency changed hands at about US$102,400 (RM458,598) as of 12.31pm on Tuesday in Singapore. The token hit a peak of US$109,241 ahead of Trump’s swearing in before falling back. Most other digital assets also wavered.
“It’s premature to draw strong conclusions from the absence of an immediate executive order” given that the Trump administration has a range of priorities, said Richard Galvin, a co-founder of hedge fund DACM. “Markets have shown resilience, suggesting investors are taking a similar, longer-term view.”
Before the inauguration, Trump and his wife Melania unveiled memecoins that whipsawed the market by diverting flows. Investors later embraced the notion that the move further incentivizes Trump to embrace crypto-friendly policies.
Bloomberg News previously reported that Trump is considering an executive order designating the asset class a “national priority”. Trump became an ardent supporter of the digital-assets industry on the campaign trail, after once having branded bitcoin a scam. He pledged to make the US the world’s crypto capital and backed the idea of creating a strategic bitcoin stockpile.
While it’s a surprise that Trump didn’t issue an executive order “praising” crypto, “one should be forthcoming” though it may not be “substantive,” TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in a note.
The Trump memecoin traded at about US$34, according to figures from CoinMarketCap. It hit an overall market value of more than US$15 billion on Sunday but slid below US$7 billion on Tuesday.
The Trump and Melania memecoins drew criticism from some industry executives, partly over the worry that they risk making crypto look frivolous.
Others took a different view. Ben El-Baz, the managing director of HashKey Global, said the tokens debuted by the Republican and his team have further accelerated bitcoin’s momentum, as retail traders look for his administration to “prioritize and reaffirm his commitment to the crypto industry”.
Memecoins are a kind of cryptocurrency with questionable intrinsic value and high volatility. They rely on social media tailwinds to drive up their price and can slide as quickly as they climb.
An 80% share of the Trump token is owned by a Trump Organization affiliate called CIC Digital LLC, and a related entity called Fight Fight Fight LLC — whose name echoes the words Trump mouthed after a bullet grazed his ear during the campaign trail. Their holdings will be unlocked over a three-year period.
According to the website, 200 million of the tokens immediately became available, a supply that will grow to one billion over three years. The small print on the website states the token isn’t intended to be an “investment opportunity, investment contract, or security of any type”.
To Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein, a memecoin “capitalising on Trump’s brand and politics, has potential longevity”. And while some may “cringe”, he added that this marks the start of a “new crypto regulatory era”.
Bitcoin has jumped about 50% since Trump’s US election victory in early November, raising the question of whether the rally is due a breather if the anticipated presidential action fails to excite speculators.
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