Hong Kong to License More Crypto Exchanges by End of Year

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission expects to issue licenses to some of the 11 crypto firms pending registration in the region.

Hong Kong’s financial regulator, the Securities Futures Commission, says it expects to issue more licenses to crypto exchanges and digital asset firms operating in the region by the end of the year.

SFC CEO Julia Leung said she expects it to “make progress” in issuing licenses to 11 currently operating Virtual Asset Trading Platforms (VATPs) on the regulator’s list of potential licensees, according to an Oct. 6 report from local media outlet HK01.

She added that licenses would be granted in “batches” moving forward in a bid to bring crypto exchanges into compliance more easily.

A total of 16 companies are awaiting a decision on their VATP application. Eleven are already operating as “deemed to be licensed,” even though the SFC discourages traders from doing business with them.

Leung added that it had completed the first round of “on-site” reviews for the crypto firms and said all VATPs that are compliant with its licensing model can expect to have their applications approved.

Leung said all firms that do not meet the SFC’s requirements can expect to lose their qualifications for licensing.

Leung’s comments came as the SFC released its roadmap for 2024 to 2026 on Oct. 6, with plans to advance regulations on crypto platforms, promote Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, and to more thoroughly explore blockchain technologies.

Retail crypto investors in Hong Kong currently only have four cryptocurrencies they can buy, and Hong Kong has been criticized for the slow pace of its crypto regulations despite its repeatedly proclaimed desire to become a world hub for crypto and financial technology.

However, Leung said she expects the regulatory framework for crypto assets to be finalized by the end of next year.

The update on crypto licenses comes just three days after crypto exchange HKVAX was approved as the third to be licensed for trading in Hong Kong after OSL and HashKey respectively received their licenses in 2020 and 2023.

Hong Kong has made licensing and regulation for crypto firms a top priority following the $165 million scandal involving the now-defunct Dubai-based crypto exchange JPEX in 2023.

Over 2,500 Hong Kong residents claim they were defrauded by the exchange, which promoted its services heavily in Hong Kong before hiking withdrawal fees in September and preventing users from accessing their funds.

In the wake of the scandal, Hong Kong said it would bolster its crypto regulations and policing of unlicensed firms. Additionally, the SFC set up a task force with the police to deal with illicit crypto exchange activities and updated its policies on crypto sales and requirements.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Retail sales in the eurozone saw a modest recovery in August, following stagnation in July, according to fresh data from Eurostat.

In August, retail trade volumes in the euro area edged up by 0.2% compared with July, with the European Union seeing a 0.3% increase. The figures marked an improvement from the previous month's revised flat reading for the eurozone and a 0.1% rise in the broader EU.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the eurozone climbed by 0.8%, while the EU saw a stronger annual increase of 1%.

The monthly figures came in line with economists' expectations, but the annual reading for the eurozone fell short of the anticipated 1% rise, reflecting some softness about consumer spending dynamics across the currency bloc.

The data also showed mixed results across various categories. Sales of food, drinks, and tobacco rose by 0.2%, while non-food products, excluding automotive fuel, posted a 0.3% increase.

Notably, motor fuel sales in specialised stores climbed by 1.1%.

Looking at individual member states, Luxembourg recorded the highest monthly increase, with retail volumes jumping by 5.3%. Cyprus and Romania followed, with gains of 2.2% and 1.6% respectively.

In contrast, Denmark experienced the steepest decline, with retail trade falling by 1.5%, while Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Croatia also posted negative growth, all shrinking by around 0.7%.

German manufacturing orders plummet

While the retail sector offered some positive news, the manufacturing outlook in Germany - Europe's largest economy - painted a much darker picture.

According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, incoming orders for Germany's manufacturing sector plummeted by 5.8% in August compared with the previous month. This sharp drop was significantly worse than the expected 2% decline, marking the worst monthly contraction since January 2024.

The fall in factory orders was largely attributed to a drop-off in large-scale orders placed in July in areas such as the construction of aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles. As these large orders subsided, the manufacturing sector struggled to maintain momentum.

Breaking down the data further, orders for capital goods fell by 8.6%, while intermediate goods dropped by 2.2%.

The consumer goods sector also faced a slowdown, with orders decreasing by 0.9%.

The situation was particularly bad for domestic and eurozone orders, which plunged by 10.9% and 10.5% respectively. However, orders from outside the eurozone provided a silver lining, rising by 3.4%.

Market reactions: Euro under pressure, stocks fall

The poor performance in Germany's factory sector weighed on the euro, which continued its downward trajectory against the US dollar.

In early morning trading on Monday, the euro slipped below $1.10, down 0.1%. This marks the seventh consecutive session of losses for the single currency, its longest losing streak since September 2023.

Contributing to the euro's woes were also comments from European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane, who noted that inflation in the euro area has been cooling faster than anticipated, bolstering market hopes for upcoming interest rate rate cuts.

Equities across Europe also faced sluggish start to the week

The Euro STOXX 50 was down 0.3%, with Milan's FTSE Mib index underperforming, losing 0.5%, and Germany's DAX falling 0.4%. In contrast, Madrid's IBEX 35 bucked the trend, rising by 0.3%.

In the corporate sphere, French luxury giants such as Kering and LVMH emerged as top performers within the Euro STOXX 50, rising 2.4% and 1.1% respectively, on optimism over improved export prospects to Asia, following China's latest stimulus efforts over the weekend.

On the downside, the pharmaceutical sector was the laggard, with Sanofi dropping 2.2% amid concerns over talc-based products affecting bids for its consumer healthcare division.

Bayer and semiconductor firm ASML Holding also experienced declines, falling 1.8% and 2.5% respectively.

Source: Euronews

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Alex

Cryptocurrency

A new HBO documentary about the creation of bitcoin has captivated the digital-asset community, with speculators creating dozens of memecoins in hopes of profiting off of the potential revelation of the identity of the original cryptocurrency’s inventor.

The tokens being created all contain some reference to a man named Len Sassaman, a cryptographer who passed away in 2011 and is considered by many to be the person who will be named as the true identity of pseudonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto in HBO’s upcoming Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery. Blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket shows that Sassaman is the leading candidate, though the implied probability that he is Satoshi has dropped on the site to 21% from as high as 68% last Thursday.

Memecoins are cryptocurrencies without any utility that have become especially popular in the past year, as blockchains like solana make it much cheaper to create and trade the tokens. Pump.fun, a platform with a design similar to the anonymous social media platform 4chan, has all but eliminated the technical complexities involved in creating a memecoin. Anyone can to go to Pump.fun and make a memecoin in a few seconds. Some traders have even created tokens related to Sassaman’s cat Sasha.

“Memecoins are acting like decentralised prediction markets, with many variations of a single theme popping up around emerging topics,” said Ben Yorke, the vice-president of ecosystem at crypto exchange WOO X. “Unfortunately, this creates a negative-sum environment, where insiders and influencers profit by steering trends they control. On the other hand, everyday investors struggle to correctly guess the trend even as they struggle to identify the real token that is representing the trend.”

The late Sassaman’s wife Meredith Patterson has denied in the past that he was the creator of bitcoin. Still, the memecoin craze around Sassaman has got so popular that Patterson posted on social media platform X on Saturday that some people were sending her memecoins that honour her cat.

“Right, so, me not knowing really anything about the world of memecoins, I apparently sent a few DMers a Coinbase address,” she wrote. “But if people are insisting on sending me memecoins about my cat, I am not gonna say no.”

Bitcoin was created by an anonymous person or group who used the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto and published the technical paper outlining the concept in late 2008. The creation of bitcoin was inspired by the 2008 global financial crisis, with the aim of establishing a decentralised digital currency system that can be operated without any intermediaries.

There have been many previous efforts to reveal Nakamoto’s real identity, including a piece in Newsweek a few years ago that claimed Dorian Nakamoto created bitcoin. The Japanese-American engineer denied his connections to bitcoin.

Source: The edge markets

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Justin

Economic

Spain’s largest banks face additional payments to the government that could impact third-quarter earnings after a review found they underpaid a windfall tax.

The country’s financial sector has paid around €3 billion (RM14.14 billion) in the last two years, after Madrid in 2022 imposed an extra levy to syphon off some of the profits banks were making on the back of higher interest rates.

But a review ordered by the government concluded that lenders paid less than they should have, according to people familiar with the matter. Banks now face extra payments, they said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.

A spokesperson for the budget ministry declined to comment.

The demands could exacerbate tensions between the country’s largest lenders and the government, which turned to the finance industry two years ago to help fund relief for consumers struggling with high inflation. Banks have criticised the tax — a levy on their net interest income and fees obtained in Spain — because it was imposed on revenue rather than profit and singled out their industry.

The biggest banks had excluded some of their income from the tax, for instance, from foreign units and businesses such as insurance, after seeking an opinion on the tax, the people said.

Across Europe, extra money is needed to fill the hole caused by multiple crises — the cost of Covid support, helping households with energy bills during the inflation spike and funding Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion.

Measures that target cash-rich firms and the wealthy help governments avoid austerity on the scale seen during the euro-area debt crisis. They also allow politicians to tell frustrated voters that the burden of repairing government finances doesn’t all fall on them.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Goldman Sachs

Economic

The outlook is brightening for European telecommunications companies, says Andrew Lee, head of the Technology, Media, and Telecom Group in Goldman Sach Research. That’s in large part because the prospects for greater pricing power and industry consolidation have improved as regulators focus more on Europe’s competitiveness.

This is bullish news for an industry characterized by slow or no growth for years. Since this improving outlook is not yet fully reflected in consensus forecasts or investor expectations, Lee says these developments may well serve as a catalyst for higher stock prices.

We spoke with Lee after Goldman Sachs’ European Communacopia Conference, where executives discussed the outlook for telecom growth into 2025 and the recent report on EU competitiveness by Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank.

What were you hearing from telecom executives during the European Communacopia conference?

We’ve seen an acceleration in growth and an improvement in returns in the European telecom sector, driven in our view by deregulation of digital infrastructure. But investors don’t believe the acceleration is sustainable. So if we look at consensus models, they show a deterioration of growth into 2025, and share prices reflect that.

What we learned from the CEOs and CFOs of some of the most important European telecom companies who spoke is that the acceleration — the higher rate of growth they’ve been delivering — is sustainable into 2025. This is because they have seen increasing pricing power in fiber broadband, thanks to deregulation. Also, they’re better able to deliver to their potential in some of the more concentrated mobile markets in Europe.

What kind of growth numbers are we talking about?

We’re seeing 2-3% top-line growth across the most attractive companies, and 4-5% or more growth in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), which translates to double-digit free cash flow growth. That is more growth than we’ve seen from the sector for most of the past 10 years — or pretty much in my whole career, which is 19 years.

Why has this sector’s growth been low in the past?

The low-growth reputation is well-earned! And there’s one reason only: European telecoms have been very heavily regulated. This has been on both the fixed broadband side — the connectivity you have in your home — and on the mobile side of things — your phone. There has been heavy regulation purely to keep consumer prices down.

What that has meant is direct price regulation in fixed broadband and market concentration regulation in mobile, keeping mobile phone services as a four-player commoditized space. Those two elements have basically meant zero growth, and they have driven return on invested capital in European telecoms down from double digits 15 years ago to mid-single digits today. Returns are now below the cost of capital. It’s all been about regulation.

What has changed, and why we’re bullish on the sector, is deregulation. We’re definitively seeing that in fixed broadband. And there’s a chance we may see that in mobile market concentration as well.

Why do you think market concentration regulation might be changing?

There are local market regulators, and they’re the people who have deregulated fiber broadband. For mobile, what we need are governments and, more importantly, competition authorities to understand that they need to incentivize investment as well as keep consumer prices low.

A decade ago, when we were rolling out 4G, the competition authorities could have their cake and eat it. They were able to keep consumer prices low by keeping these four-player markets, but they were still getting investment into the network because returns at that point were still above the cost of capital. Today, because returns are below the cost of capital in European mobile, operators are not investing in new networks. So the 5G rollout in Europe is lagging the 5G rollout in the US and Asia. And that is a problem.

Is this why Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, kept coming up at the conference?

Yes. Draghi was commissioned by the EU to write a report on how to improve European competitiveness. And that was the report he put out recently. What he highlighted is that we need to allow market concentration to incentivize investment to support European growth. He has laid out European mobile services as one of the areas where they can do that.

The question then is whether this will actually change anything. I think the fact that he’s been commissioned by the EU to write this is important. And it comes at the same time as the head of the EU competition authority has changed.

What did speakers at the Communacopia conference say about this?

What we heard from all our company operators is that they think things have definitively changed. They see the Draghi report as a clear sign of an understanding that we need to change the direction of European regulation to support investment.

With the change of the competition commissioner as well, we think there’s a high likelihood that we will see attempts at consolidation to test this apparent new regulatory stance in the coming months and years. Markets where we might see that include Italy, the Nordic countries, Sweden, and Denmark, and maybe even Germany.

How bullish is this for the stocks?

We’ve had a lot of positive data points on the scope for in-market consolidation. That is the thing that can change the dynamic of growth and returns for European mobile. While we don't know how this is going to play out, it’s as positive as it’s ever been. Investors are not paying for any of that improvement right now. So we think it offers upside.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures are up +0.36%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up +0.40% this morning, signaling a partial rebound from yesterday’s slump, while investors awaited further comments from Federal Reserve officials, with all eyes on Thursday’s key U.S. inflation report and the start of earnings season.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Amazon.com fell over -3% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight. Also, insurance companies offering property and casualty insurance in Florida slumped as Hurricane Milton strengthened to a Category 5 storm, with Heritage Insurance Holdings plummeting more than -23% and HCI Group plunging over -17%. In addition, Apple dropped more than -2% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy with a price target of $212.92. On the bullish side, Super Micro Computer surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the server company reported strong shipments of its graphics processing units, fueled by artificial intelligence demand. Also, Pfizer rose more than +2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value acquired a roughly $1 billion stake in the drugmaker.

Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. consumer credit rose +$8.93B in August, weaker than expectations of +$11.80B.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Monday that he believes the economy remains resilient and the labor market, despite showing some signs of softening, is still strong, with the Fed’s rate cuts intended to maintain these conditions. “The balance of risks has shifted away from high inflation towards maybe higher unemployment,” Kashkari said. “And that’s why I thought dialing back policy was the right move.” Also, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he backed the U.S. central bank’s decision to lower interest rates by a half point last month but emphasized that he would prefer any further reductions to be gradual. “I believe it will likely be appropriate to further reduce the target range for the federal funds rate over time toward a neutral posture,” Musalem said. In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stated on Tuesday that the central bank should maintain its focus on returning inflation to its 2% target, albeit with a “balanced approach” that prevents an “undesirable” slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion. Kugler said she would support further cuts “if progress on inflation continues as I expect.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.3% chance of no cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s November meeting.

Meanwhile, the crisis in the Middle East continued to unsettle investors, with fighting intensifying on Monday on multiple fronts after a year of war. The Israel Defense Forces stated that they intercepted the majority of a barrage of rockets launched toward Tel Aviv by Hamas and other groups backed by Iran.

Market participants are keenly awaiting U.S. inflation data, the Fed’s minutes from the September meeting, and the start of the third-quarter earnings season this week.

Financial sector earnings begin on Friday, with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Blackrock. Food and beverage giant PepsiCo is set to announce its Q3 earnings results today.

Today, investors will also focus on U.S. Trade Balance data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast this figure to stand at -$70.10B in August, compared to the previous figure of -$78.80B.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.018%, down -0.28%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.80% this morning, tracking an overnight drop on Wall Street, while China’s pledge to bolster its economy disappointed investors hoping for new stimulus. Mining and luxury stocks tumbled on Tuesday. Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Tuesday that Germany’s monthly industrial production increased at its fastest pace this year in August, primarily driven by a recovery in the automotive industry. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is set to meet next week and is widely expected to ease policy again, having already cut rates twice this year in response to easing inflationary pressures. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Monday that he is open to considering another ECB rate cut during next week’s meeting. In corporate news, Vistry Group Plc plummeted over -28% after the British homebuilder slashed its full-year profit guidance.

Germany’s Industrial Production data was released today.

The German August Industrial Production came in at +2.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +4.59%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.00%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed sharply higher today as trading resumed after a week-long holiday, with investor sentiment remaining upbeat. The benchmark index extended a historic rally that began in late September when China introduced its most aggressive monetary stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic to bolster the economy. Semiconductor and software stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism released Tuesday showed that tourists in China made 765 million domestic trips during the just-ended seven-day National Day holiday, marking a 5.9% increase from the previous year and 10.2% higher than the same period in 2019, while tourism revenue reached 700.82 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-over-year and 7.9% above the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Meanwhile, Chinese officials at the National Development and Reform Commission said Tuesday they would speed up spending while largely reaffirming plans to boost investment and provide more direct support for low-income groups and new graduates, though they refrained from introducing additional stimulus. They stated that China would continue to issue ultra-long sovereign bonds next year to fund major projects and invest 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) in key strategic areas. In other news, Goldman Sachs upgraded Chinese stocks to Overweight, with strategists including Tim Moe highlighting a further 15% to 20% upside potential. In corporate news, COSCO Shipping gained over +5% after the shipping group provided a robust Q3 net profit forecast.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, snapping a three-day winning streak and tracking overnight losses on Wall Street. Japanese stocks also retreated as the yen regained some losses amid lingering uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Automobile and bank stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released Tuesday showed that Japan’s inflation-adjusted wages and household spending fell in August. However, analysts noted that underlying trends suggest a gradual recovery in pay and consumption, which should bolster the BOJ’s plans for further rate increases. Separately, data released by the Finance Ministry showed that Japan’s current account surplus reached a record high in August, marking the 19th consecutive month of surplus in the current account. Investor attention is now directed toward earnings reports from major Japanese firms set for later this week, including AEON, Fast Retailing, and Seven & I Holdings. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +11.10% to 33.54.

The Japanese August Household Spending stood at +2.0% m/m and -1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and -2.6% y/y.

The Japanese August Current Account n.s.a. came in at 3.804T yen, stronger than expectations of 2.921T yen.

The Japanese September Economy Watchers Current Index arrived at 47.8, weaker than expectations of 49.3.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

DocuSign climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the company would replace MDU Resources Group in the S&P MidCap 400 index, effective October 11th.

Qualcomm fell more than -1% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc downgraded the stock to Sector Weight from Overweight.

Affirm gained over +4% in pre-market trading after BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $68 price target.

Source: Barchart

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Reducing interest rates in October wouldn’t mean that the European Central Bank is certain to do so again at its final meeting of the year, according to Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle.

“Even if the ECB happens to decide to lower rates next week, that wouldn’t automatically mean another cut is coming in December,” he told Bloomberg, describing a cut this month as “an option.”

The comments could be seen as pushback against investor bets that the ECB will lower its deposit rate six times by the end of 2025 — including at the next two meetings — bringing it to 2% from 3.5% now. He warned that while such wagers may be a natural reaction to Europe’s stuttering economy, officials won’t be bullied into any course of action.

“The markets aren’t dictating our moves,” said the Slovenian official, whose central bank is hosting the ECB’s Oct. 16-17 gathering. “However they are valuable information to our deliberations.” ECB Cut Next Week Wouldn’t Guarantee December Move, Vasle Says_1

ECB Cut Next Week Wouldn’t Guarantee December Move, Vasle Says_1

Markets and analysts now expect quicker monetary easing after business surveys showed a marked deterioration in the euro zone’s 20-nation economy and inflation dipped below the 2% target. Officials have indicated that an October step is likely, though several stress that the battle to tame the region’s historic spike in prices isn’t won yet.

Inflation risks are abating, according to Vasle, but he still sees some pockets of uncertainty — namely in the labor market, services prices and geopolitics. September’s reading of 1.8% — the lowest since June 2021 — was due in part to one-off effects, and a temporary uptick is likely over the coming months, he cautioned.

In remarks published earlier Tuesday, ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson said recent data suggest that downside risks to the economy are “already materializing.” Policymakers “will need to carefully assess whether this has any implications for our inflation outlook,” he told Slovenia’s Delo newspaper.

Latvian central-bank chief Martins Kazaks, meanwhile, told reporters in Riga that while data point to an October rate cut, inflation is not yet defeated.

ECB Cut Next Week Wouldn’t Guarantee December Move, Vasle Says_2

Looking ahead, Vasle said the direction of monetary policy is clear — should the ECB’s baseline scenario materialize.

“The main question is the dynamic of rate cuts,” Vasle said. He expects borrowing costs to be lowered to neutral levels that neither constrict nor stimulate the economy by end-2025.

That’s more than other officials are committing to, with most simply saying that for now the ECB needs to reduce the level of restrictiveness.

Source: Bloomberg

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Hong Kong to License More Crypto Exchanges by End of Year

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

Eurozone Retail Sales Rise in August, but Germany's Factory Orders Sink

German manufacturing orders plummet

Market reactions: Euro under pressure, stocks fall

Equities across Europe also faced sluggish start to the week

Source: Euronews

Guesses About Bitcoin Creator’s Identity Stir Up Memecoin Market

Source: The edge markets

Spanish Banks Face Extra Payments after Windfall-tax Review

Source: Theedgemarkets

European Telecom Companies Poised for Growth Amid Deregulation

What were you hearing from telecom executives during the European Communacopia conference?

What kind of growth numbers are we talking about?

Why has this sector’s growth been low in the past?

Why do you think market concentration regulation might be changing?

Is this why Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, kept coming up at the conference?

What did speakers at the Communacopia conference say about this?

How bullish is this for the stocks?

Stock Index Futures Climb Ahead of Fed Speak, U.S. Inflation Data and Earnings Awaited

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Source: Barchart

ECB Cut Next Week Wouldn’t Guarantee December Move, Vasle Says

Source: Bloomberg

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