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The rapid rise in interest rates across the yield curve has increased the broader public’s interest in the exposure embedded in bank balance sheets and in depositor behavior more generally.
China’s economy grew at the fastest pace in a year in the first quarter, putting Beijing on track to meet its growth goal for the year without adding major stimulus, while also helping to cushion the global economy against a downturn.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% last quarter from a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, beating economists’ expectations. In March, retail sales soared 10.6% from a year earlier, the biggest monthly gain since June 2021.
The upbeat data provide a foundation for China’s government to meet or exceed its GDP growth target of about 5% for the year. That would make China, alongside India, the largest contributers to global growth in 2023, accounting for about half of the expansion, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The strong GDP report prompted Citigroup Inc. and Societe Generale SA to upgrade their full-year growth forecasts for China to 6.1% and 6% respectively. S&P Global Ratings also said there’s upside risk to its current projection of 5.5%.
“That recovery of consumption should provide some comfort to policymakers and will probably nudge them a little further in the direction of not wanting to apply a significant amount of macro economic stimulus and starting to think about toning down the generosity of monetary policy,” said Louis Kuijs, S&P’s chief economist for Asia Pacific. “I think the growth momentum will be maintained.”
Still, the March data showed China’s recovery from 2022 — when Covid lockdowns and a property slump dragged GDP growth down to the second-weakest pace since the 1970s — will be gradual rather than “V-shaped.”
Growth in industrial output remains below pre-pandemic rates, while property investment continued to contract, even though housing sales have started to expand again. Weak real estate construction was to some extent offset by a surge in infrastructure investment led by state-owned companies.
The jobs market and wage growth also haven’t returned to normal. Incomes of urban residents grew just 2.7% in inflation-adjusted terms during the first quarter from a year earlier, well below growth rates above 5% in pre-pandemic years. The youth unemployment rate climbed close to a record, while the nationwide urban jobless rate remained elevated.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the NBS, said Tuesday the economy’s rebound is “not yet solid.”
Financial markets were relatively muted after the GDP report. The benchmark CSI 300 Index of equities ended 0.3% higher for the day, while the offshore yuan rose 0.1%. China’s 10-year government bond yield slipped 1 basis point to 2.83%.
China remains crucial to the global economy this year as the US and Europe struggle due to factors such as high energy costs and consumer inflation running ahead of wage growth, which limits consumer spending. China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share set to be double that of the US, according to Bloomberg calculations based on IMF data.
March industrial output was buoyed by commodities production, with growth in cement output the strongest in two years, underlining higher demand from the construction sector. Vehicle production also climbed as car exports surged. The production of micro computer equipment fell 22% and integrated circuit output also slumped, adding to evidence of a broader slowdown in the electronic supply chain in East Asia that has hit South Korea’s exports.
The strong growth in retail sales suggest “there is no immediate need for fiscal stimulus to support consumers,” Iris Pang, chief Greater China economist at ING Group NV, said in a note. March’s growth of clothing sales, Pang’s favored measure of household consumption appetite, was the highest in nearly two years.
Other indicators released this month have provided conflicting signals about the recovery: credit and exports surged in March, but inflation remained weak. While the latter is generally a sign of muted domestic demand in the economy, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. argue the weak inflation figures may indicate growth in demand is being outpaced by a recovery in supply.
“The brisk pickup in China’s GDP growth in the first quarter matched our expectations. The pleasant surprise was the strength of retail sales in March — showing that a long-sought reorientation toward consumption was a big driver of the recovery from the Covid slump.”
“Less encouraging was an unexpected slowdown in fixed-asset investment. That’s somewhat concerning given that slower global growth is damping the rebound in industrial production.”
Japan will stay the course to reach the central bank's 2% inflation target by continuing monetary easing even though it may take time, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday (April 18), signalling his stance to maintain loose conditions.
Speaking at the lower house financial committee of parliament, Ueda said he saw no immediate need to review a joint statement issued with the government about a decade ago.
The joint statement, which is not legally binding, stipulates the respective roles the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) should each play to pull the country out of deflation.
"We are going to approach meeting the 2% inflation target by keeping to monetary easing, although it may take time," Ueda said. "The joint statement is appropriate and I don't see any immediate need to revise the target."
Ueda stressed the need for Japanese firms to boost investment in human capital, saying that economic growth should bear the fruits of higher wages and sustain inflation. He praised government-led reforms allowing flexible way of working, which he said has contributed to stronger economic growth.
In an earlier parliamentary session, Ueda, pressed for his views on Japan's fiscal policy, defended the central bank's debt purchases.
The BOJ is buying Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as part of efforts to achieve its 2% inflation target, not to monetise debt.
"The BOJ's JGB purchases are managed out of the need of conducting monetary policy with the aim of achieving the 2% price stability target," Ueda told the lower house financial committee of parliament. "We have no intention of helping the government acquire financial sources."
As part of its yield control policy and quantitative easing, the central bank purchases a massive amount of JGBs as well as risky assets such as exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts.
In his first appearance in parliament since assuming office on April 9, Ueda faced lawmakers' questions on fiscal issues, as Japan scrambles to fund its plan to double defence outlays amid growing security concerns about China and North Korea.
Some ruling party lawmakers are considering extending a 60-year redemption rule for government debt to 80 years in order to create more fiscal space.
Speaking at the same session, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the finance ministry was not specifically considering reviewing the debt redemption rule for now.
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