Hudbay Minerals Maintained at Outperform at National Bank Following Q3 Results; Price Target Kept at C$16.75

For the quarter ended September 2024, HudBay Minerals (HBM) reported revenue of $485.77 million, up 1.1% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.13, compared to $0.07 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $467.62 million, representing a surprise of +3.88%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +160.00%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.05.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how HudBay Minerals performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

• Tons Produced - Copper - Manitoba: 3,398 Ton compared to the 2,654.43 Ton average estimate based on 13 analysts.
• Tons Produced - Zinc - Manitoba: 8,069 Ton compared to the 7,732.65 Ton average estimate based on 13 analysts.
• Ounces Produces - Gold-Manitoba: 62,468 Oz compared to the 47,181.62 Oz average estimate based on 13 analysts.
• Ounces Produces - Silver-British Columbia: 55,963 Oz versus the 13-analyst average estimate of 89,248.26 Oz.
• Tons Produced - Copper - British Columbia: 6,736 Ton compared to the 8,394.13 Ton average estimate based on 13 analysts.
• Ounces Produces - Silver-Manitoba: 281,397 Oz versus 219,848.7 Oz estimated by 13 analysts on average.
• Revenue from contracts- Copper: $261.30 million versus $318.46 million estimated by nine analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -21.8% change.
• Revenue from contracts- Zinc: $24.20 million versus the nine-analyst average estimate of $21.06 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +36%.
• Revenue from contracts- Gold: $176.40 million versus $140.40 million estimated by nine analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +37.4% change.
• Revenue from contracts- Silver: $12.70 million compared to the $20.93 million average estimate based on nine analysts. The reported number represents a change of +23.3% year over year.
• Revenue from contracts- Molybdenum: $16.80 million versus $14.56 million estimated by eight analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -25% change.
• Revenue from contracts: $491.40 million versus $531.80 million estimated by four analysts on average.

View all Key Company Metrics for HudBay Minerals here>>>

Shares of HudBay Minerals have returned -4.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

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HudBay Minerals (HBM) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.05 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.07 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 160%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this mining company would post earnings of $0.06 per share when it actually produced break-even earnings, delivering a surprise of -100%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

HudBay Minerals, which belongs to the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry, posted revenues of $485.77 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.88%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $480.46 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

HudBay Minerals shares have added about 55.3% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 25.5%.

What's Next for HudBay Minerals?

While HudBay Minerals has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for HudBay Minerals: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.24 on $635.26 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.48 on $2.04 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Mining - Miscellaneous is currently in the bottom 29% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, American Resources Corporation (AREC), has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024. The results are expected to be released on November 14.

This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.10 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -300%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

American Resources Corporation's revenues are expected to be $0.2 million, down 96.6% from the year-ago quarter.

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