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Key Takeaways:
By Edith Terry
Travel-related IPOs were all the rage at one time not long ago, as a new generation of hotel operators and air and train ticket sellers cashed in on a new appetite for tourism from China’s emerging middle class. But the group has gone largely silent lately in terms of new listings, hobbled by the plunge in their business during the three years of the pandemic.
Now, Huoli Group Holdings Ltd. is finally breaking that silence with its filing for an IPO in Hong Kong at the end of last month. The listing would be one of the first by a major online travel agent since larger rival Tongcheng (0780.HK) raised $180 million in its 2018 listing in Hong Kong. Huoli is likely to raise less than that, based on the company’s latest valuation of about 2 billion yuan ($282 million) during its most recent fundraising in August, and the assumption that it will float about a quarter of its shares.
A quarter of its latest valuation would translate to about $70 million in fundraising for the IPO, and the company’s hiring of mid-sized investment banks CMS International and CMBC Capital as underwriters also suggests a mid-sized deal.
Investor appetite for Huoli shares will depend on whether China can sustain its post-pandemic domestic travel boom. That boom has continued to defy a slowdown in other areas of consumer spending, with Chinese travelers still willing to spend strongly on “revenge travel” post-pandemic. But the boom is showing recent signs of slowing, as Chinese consumers grow increasingly cautious. That means timing will be critical behind the success of Huoli’s listing.
At the depths of the pandemic, when domestic travel was effectively halted, Huoli lost 357.5 million yuan on revenue of 343.6 million yuan in 2021. Revenue fell further to 280.1 million yuan in 2022, before revenge travel helped the figure rebound almost 80% to 501.6 million yuan in 2023. Similarly, the company bounced back from a net loss of 758,000 yuan in 2022, to a profit of 59.3 million yuan in 2023.
Revenue growth slowed in the first half of this year, but the figure still rose by 22.6% to 281.4 million yuan, while its net profit fell slightly to 31.7 million yuan. Revenue from transportation services, its biggest revenue source at about three-quarters of its total, increased by a similar 22.2% over the period from 168.4 million yuan to 205.8 million yuan.
The company’s gross margin has also bounced back from 49.8% in 2021 to 58.6% in the first half of this year. Its registered user base has rebounded strongly as well, with its number of paying users more than doubling from 4.3 million in 2022 to 8.8 million last year.
Huoli cited industry data saying it was China’s fifth largest third-party seller of online air tickets in 2023, with 1.5% of the 1.2 trillion yuan market. It was the third-largest for online train ticket bookings with 2.2% of the 552.8 billion yuan market.
Sector rebound
Huoli certainly wasn’t the only one to benefit from revenge travel. Tongcheng also saw its business rebound, with revenue up 48.8% to 8.1 billion yuan and profit up 12.3% to 829.5 million yuan in the first half of the year. And Fosun Tourism (1992.HK), which owns Club Med, saw its revenue grow 39% in the first half of this year, as the company returned to the black by reporting a 8.9 billion yuan profit.
The latest reading on the pulse of China’s travel market came during the weeklong Oct. 1 “golden week” holiday. Those numbers showed travel was still growing, though at just single-digit rates. The holiday saw the number of domestic trips rise 5.9% year-on-year to 765 million, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
The slowing rebound may be happening more quickly at the high-end of the travel market, with international hotel chains reporting recent declines in their revenue per available room (revpar), the most widely watched industry metric, in their China operations.
While the domestic tourism rebound is slowing, a return to outbound tourism continues to take off as international flights to and from China slowly return to pre-pandemic levels. Outbound tourists on online travel agency Tuniu were up 190% over the May 1 Labor Day holiday.
Huoli is one of China’s top three one-stop sources for travel information and bookings, although it is a distant third to industry leader Trip.com and Tongcheng, which have much larger market values of $45 billion and $5.5 billion, respectively. Like its peers, Huoli offers integrated travel information and booking services.
In Huoli’s case, these cover 5,000 airports in 220 countries, 3,000 domestic rail stations and 400,000 hotels. Its brand is known best through its two apps, Flight Master, launched in 2009, and Train Master, launched in 2012. It also supplies travel data and technology services for some 150 enterprise customers, and offers some ride hailing services.
Transportation services accounted for 73.1% of its revenues in the first half of this year, while corporate travel managing services accounted for 13.6% and online ride hailing for 1.1%. Despite its presence in the hotel booking area, its accommodation reservations business is still relatively small at just 1.7% of its revenue in the latest reporting period.
Huoli has raised 1.15 billion yuan in various financing rounds between April 2016 and August 2024, but has now used up most of those proceeds, according to the listing document. The company previously listed on China’s National Equities and Quotations (NEEQ) market in 2017, but withdrew three years later due to thin trading.
The company also made a preliminary filing to list on Shanghai’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market in May 2019 before deciding not to pursue that option. The decision to pursue a Hong Kong listing instead may have been influenced by its plans to establish an Asian regional business in Hong Kong, which would require foreign currency. Such a listing would also raise the company’s profile among travelers outside the Mainland travel market who would be the primary customers of such an offshore hub.
All of Huoli’s revenues currently come from domestic sources, but it plans to develop global tourism products from the new Hong Kong center, Zhou Menghao, Huoli’s director of marketing and public relations said in April.
Huoli is undoubtedly hoping to ride the recent rally for Chinese stocks in Hong Kong following China’s monetary “bazooka” of economic stimulus measures announced in September. That development lit a fire under the benchmark Hang Seng Index, which has managed to maintain much of the gains since then on belief that China is taking more aggressive measures to jumpstart its slowing economy. Several companies to list during that period have also done well, which could play to Huoli’s benefit if it can quickly move through the IPO process.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Lindblad Expeditions (LIND) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.08 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 100%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.24 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.48, delivering a surprise of -100%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Lindblad Expeditions, which belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, posted revenues of $206.01 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.16%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $175.99 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Lindblad Expeditions shares have lost about 17% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 19.8%.
What's Next for Lindblad Expeditions?
While Lindblad Expeditions has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Lindblad Expeditions: unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.26 on $138.03 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$0.65 on $622.2 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Leisure and Recreation Services is currently in the top 25% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Trip.com (TCOM), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024.
This travel services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Trip.com's revenues are expected to be $2.2 billion, up 16.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Zacks Investment Research
As of Nov. 5, 2024, three stocks in the consumer discretionary sector could be flashing a real warning to investors who value momentum as a key criteria in their trading decisions.
The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock’s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered overbought when the RSI is above 70, according to Benzinga Pro.
Here's the latest list of major overbought players in this sector.
Read More:
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Interface (TILE) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.48 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.28 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 45.45%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this carpet tile company would post earnings of $0.28 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.40, delivering a surprise of 42.86%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Interface, which belongs to the Zacks Textile - Home Furnishing industry, posted revenues of $344.27 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.77%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $311.01 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Interface shares have added about 38.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 19.6%.
What's Next for Interface?
While Interface has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Interface: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.30 on $339 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.28 on $1.31 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Textile - Home Furnishing is currently in the top 4% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, Trip.com (TCOM), is yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024.
This travel services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Trip.com's revenues are expected to be $2.2 billion, up 16.7% from the year-ago quarter.
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