ICE Canada Morning Comment: Canola Trying to Recover

European natural gas futures eased to below €47.5 per megawatt-hour, tracking the pullback in other gas benchmarks to ease from a one-year high of €48.7 as the outlook of higher LNG export capacity from the US limited risks from supply disruptions from Russia.

Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine were stable through the week despite ongoing contract disagreements between Gazprom and the Austrian OMV, which caused flows to temporarily be halted on Saturday.

Still, the outlook of supply to Europe remained uncertain in coming weeks as data from EUstream indicated that low requests through Austria and Slovakia remained below levels from before the supply halt, lifting prices.

This took place as flows through Ukraine are due to end by the end of December due to attritions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Cocoa futures surged above $8,900 per tonne, reaching their highest level since early September amid mounting supply concerns.

Dealers pointed to unfavorable weather in the Ivory Coast, the top cocoa producer, including the prospect of early dry Harmattan winds this year, which could damage cocoa pods and dry out the soil, resulting in smaller beans.

Furthermore, reports revealed significant cocoa bud mortality on trees due to excessive rainfall following recent heavy rains in the region.

US natural gas prices fell to $3.2/MMBtu after touching a one-year high of $3.35 on November 21st amid an ample output next year.

The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to raise output for the first time since the pandemic next year amid higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Still, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November as forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season.

Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output.

In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was down 0.1% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust slipped 0.2% in Friday's premarket activity, ahead of business activity data due later in the day.

US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures retreating 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.02%, and Nasdaq futures losing 0.2% before the start of regular trading.

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index for November will be released at 9:45 am ET, followed by the University of Michigan's November consumer sentiment bulletin at 10 am ET.

The weekly Baker Hughes domestic oil-and-gas rig count will be released at 1 pm ET.

In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 0.4% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was 0.6% higher.

Power Play:

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund advanced 0.1%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund and the iShares US Healthcare ETF were inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF declined marginally by 0.02%.

Modular Medical stock was down 11% premarket after the company said late Thursday it priced its public offering of around 5.5 million shares at $1.50 apiece.

Winners and Losers:

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund was flat. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares was up 0.1%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares was flat.

Abacus Life shares were down 5% pre-bell Friday after the company said late Thursday that it priced an underwritten public offering of 12.5 million common shares at $8 apiece.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund retreated 0.2%, and the iShares US Technology ETF was inactive, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF gained by 0.03%. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF declined 0.1%.

StoneCo shares were down 4% in recent Friday premarket activity after the company said late Thursday it authorized the repurchase of up to 2 billion Brazilian reais ($343.9 million) in outstanding Class A common shares.

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund was marginally down by 0.04%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund was inactive. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF was inactive, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund gained 0.2%. The VanEck Retail ETF was inactive, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF advanced 0.2%.

Tapestry shares were up 3.2% pre-bell after the company said it signed accelerated share repurchase deals with Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to buy back $2 billion of its common shares.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund retreated marginally by 0.01% while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) were inactive.

EHang Holdings stock was up 2.3% before the opening bell after the company said its board approved a share repurchase program of up to $30 million of its American depositary shares or ordinary shares over the next 12 months.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund was down by 0.2%.

Equinor stock was down 1.6% before Friday's opening bell after the company said it is reducing its renewable energy unit's staff by 20%, the equivalent of nearly 250 full-time jobs.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated 0.7% to $69.58 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas fell 2.6% to $3.25 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund lost 0.7%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund was 2.3% lower.

Gold futures for February were up nearly 1% at $2,724.70 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures advanced 1.3% to $31.78 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares gained 1.2%, and iShares Silver Trust was 1.9% higher.

Cotton prices are posing marginal losses of 11 to 15 points so far on Friday, Futures posted gains of 11 to 20 points on Thursday, helped out by the Export Sales release. The outside markets were mixed, as the US dollar index was up 414 points and the highest in over a year. Crude oil futures provided some support, up $1.40/barrel.

Export Sales data showed 2024/25 upland cotton bookings totaling 318,516 RB in the week of 11/14, a MY high. Vietnam was the buyer of 141,600 RB, with Pakistan buying 55,300 RB. Another 16,016 RB was sold for 2025/26. Shipments were 148,215 RB, which was the third largest this MY. The largest destination was Vietnam as 26,100 RB was headed their way, with 25,700 RB to Pakistan.

The Seam reported 5,442 bales of online sales on November 20 at an average price of 64.93 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were unchanged again on Wednesday, at 13,274 bales of certified stocks. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points on 11/02 at 79.70 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was lowered by 229 points on Thursday afternoon to 55.91 cents/lb.

Mar 25 Cotton closed at 70.43, up 15 points, currently down 12 points

May 25 Cotton closed at 71.65, up 14 points, currently down 11 points

Jul 25 Cotton closed at 72.8, up 15 points, currently down 15 points

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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The corn market is kicking of the prelude to the weekend with gains of 2 to 3 cents so far. Corn posted Thursday losses at the close, with contracts down 3 ½ to 4 ½ cents across the board. Pressure mounted as the rest of the grains were lower and the US dollar index posted fresh 1 year highs. December options expire today. The national average Cash Corn price from cmdtyView was down 3 1/4 cents at $4.04 3/4 per bu.

Export Sales data from yesterday morning showed a total of 1.495 MMT of 2024/25 corn sold in the week ending on November 14. That was in the middle of the expected 1 to 2.2 MMT, and a jump of 13.7% from the week prior. Mexico was the largest buyer of 787,400 MT, with unknown in for 146,300 MT, and Japan buying 132,100 MT.

Two separate South Korean importers purchased a combined 136,000 MT of corn in private tenders on Thursday.

Data from the monthly International Grains Council report shows corn production up 1 MMT to 1.225 billion MT. That mixed with a 4 MMT increase to used lowered the stocks projection by 4 MMT to 275 MMT.

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash was $4.04 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.36 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents, currently up 2 3/4 cents

May 25 Corn closed at $4.43 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents, currently up 2 1/4 cents

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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