For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 14, 2024 – Today, Zacks Equity Research Lithia Motors LAD and Rush Enterprises RUSHA.
Industry: Auto Retail
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2369377/2-resilient-auto-retailers-rewarding-investors-amid-industry-hurdles?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID01-txt-2369377
The outlook for the Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale industry is muted now amid concerns over slowing vehicle sales growth. While consumer incentives offer some relief, they also squeeze retailers' profit margins. Adding to the pressure, uncertainty surrounding EV policies under Donald Trump's presidency may further dampen sales. Despite these complex challenges, auto retailers like Lithia Motors and Rush Enterprises appear well-prepared, leveraging strategic expansions and shareholder-focused initiatives to better navigate the industry headwinds.
Industry Overview
The automotive sector’s performance depends on its retail and wholesale network. Through dealership and retail chains, companies in the Zacks Auto Retail and Whole Sales industry carry out several tasks. These include the sale of new and used vehicles, light trucks as well as auto parts, execution of repair and maintenance services, along with the arrangement of vehicle financing.
The industry, being consumer cyclical, is dependent on business cycles and economic conditions. Consumers and businesses spend more on big-ticket items when they have higher disposable income. On the contrary, when income is tight, discretionary expenses are the first to be slashed. Importantly, the coronavirus pandemic has brought considerable changes in the operating environment, with the industry laying more emphasis on e-commerce retailing.
Key Investing Themes to Consider
Vehicle Sales Slowing Down: New vehicle sales in the United States declined by about 2% year over year in the third quarter of 2023, marking the second straight quarterly drop, per U.S. Automotive News. Industry experts expect ongoing volatility through the year-end. North American light-vehicle production forecasts have been reduced from 15.8 million to 15.5 million units due to delayed launches and production cuts aimed at controlling inventory.
Additionally, S&P Global Mobility lowered its 2024 U.S. sales forecast from 16 million to 15.9 million vehicles. Cox Automotive forecasts new vehicle sales of 15.7 million. This slowdown in sales poses challenges for auto retailers, who may face pressure amid reduced demand.
EV Uncertainty on the Horizon: A Trump win is set to impact U.S. EV sales demand, posing new challenges for auto retailers. His stance on loosening environmental regulations and scaling back EV incentives is expected to slow the EV market’s momentum, especially if subsidies and tax breaks are reduced or removed. Lower EV sales could push manufacturers to adjust production, potentially leading to fewer model choices and reduced innovation in EVs. Lower-than-expected consumer adoption of EVs will reduce the overall sales volumes.
Vehicle Margins Under Pressure: Vehicle margins are shrinking as inventories rise, reaching 2.8 million units in September — a 40% increase from a year ago, per Cox Automotive. As a result, automakers and dealers have ramped up incentives, with the average incentive per new vehicle soaring 63% year over year to $3,000, according to J.D. Power and GlobalData.
Incentives now account for 6.2% of the sticker price, up from 3.8% last year, signaling a shift to a buyer's market. Transaction prices averaged $44,467 in September, down 2.8% from a year ago, as higher manufacturer incentives and retailer discounts put pressure on prices. While consumers benefit, auto retailers face tighter margins amid aggressive discounts.
Investor-Friendly Moves: Despite broader market challenges, many auto retailers still remain committed to delivering shareholder value through share buybacks and dividend increases. Benefiting from acquisitions, store expansions and cost-saving measures, these companies are generating decent cash flows, enabling them to reward investors with share repurchases and dividend growth.
Zacks Industry Rank Paints a Glum Picture
The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry is part of the broader Zacks Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #227, which places it in the bottom 9% of around 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates glum near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s positioning in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are pessimistic about this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry’s earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 have contracted around 17.30% and 33.20%, respectively, over the past year.
Before we present a few stocks that you may still add to your watchlist, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Lags S&P 500 but Tops Sector
The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite but outperformed the Auto, Tires and Truck sector over the past year. The industry has gained 18.8% over this period compared with the S&P 500’s growth of 33.7%. Meanwhile, the sector has risen 15%.
Industry's Current Valuation
Since automotive companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the enterprise value/earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio.
On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, the industry is currently trading at 8.81X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.59X and the sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 18.56X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 10.71X, as low as 4.35X and at a median of 6.92X.
2 Stocks Worth a Look
Rush Enterprises: It is a leading provider of solutions to the commercial vehicle industry. The company is known for the ownership and operation of Rush Truck Centers, the largest network of commercial vehicle dealerships across North America.
With over 150 locations spanning 23 states and Ontario, Canada, including 125 franchised dealership locations, Rush is a dominant force in the industry. Strong FCF generation, disciplined expense management approach and investor-friendly moves are praiseworthy. Rush Enterprises has increased its payout seven times in the last five years, with an average annualized growth rate of 26.8%.
Rush Enterprises has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a VGM Score of A. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has moved north by 7 cents in the past 90 days to $4.08, implying 18.3% growth from the 2024 projected level. RUSHA surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters, the average being 12.8%. Over the past six months, shares of RUSHA have gained 38.7%, outperforming the industry’s growth of 13.3%.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Lithia: It is one of the leading automotive retailers of new and used vehicles, and related services in the United States. The company’s strategic acquisitions are significantly increasing its market share and enhancing its portfolio. A spree of acquisitions has brought Lithia's total expected annualized revenues acquired to roughly $6 billion so far in 2024.
LAD’s Driveway e-commerce platform is boosting Lithia’s profitability and market presence. Robust cash flows and investor-friendly moves of the firm are driving shareholders’ confidence. LAD has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 15.13%. In the first nine months of 2024, the company repurchased approximately 986,000 shares.
Lithia currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and has a VGM Score of A. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS and sales indicates year-over-year growth of 15.7% and 8%, respectively. The consensus mark for this year’s EPS has moved north by 10 cents over the past seven days. Over the past six months, shares of LAD have gained 34.8%, outperforming the industry’s growth of 13.3%.
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