Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Jazz (JAZZ) Stock?

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) could be a solid choice for investors given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.

The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.

The power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements makes the Zacks rating system highly useful for individual investors, since it can be difficult to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts. These are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time.

Therefore, the Zacks rating upgrade for Jazz basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price.

Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices

The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, and the near-term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated. The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship, as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.

Fundamentally speaking, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade for Jazz imply an improvement in the company's underlying business. Investors should show their appreciation for this improving business trend by pushing the stock higher.

Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions

As empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, tracking such revisions for making an investment decision could be truly rewarding. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.

The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Earnings Estimate Revisions for Jazz

For the fiscal year ending December 2024, this drugmaker is expected to earn $20.06 per share, which is a change of 9.7% from the year-ago reported number.

Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Jazz. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 6.1%.

Bottom Line

Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.

The upgrade of Jazz to a Zacks Rank #2 positions it in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.

Zacks Investment Research

Investors interested in Medical - Drugs stocks are likely familiar with Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) and Catalent (CTLT). But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors? We'll need to take a closer look to find out.

Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities, but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank. The Zacks Rank is a proven strategy that targets companies with positive earnings estimate revision trends, while our Style Scores work to grade companies based on specific traits.

Currently, Jazz Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while Catalent has a Zacks Rank of #5 (Strong Sell). This system places an emphasis on companies that have seen positive earnings estimate revisions, so investors should feel comfortable knowing that JAZZ is likely seeing its earnings outlook improve to a greater extent. But this is only part of the picture for value investors.

Value investors also try to analyze a wide range of traditional figures and metrics to help determine whether a company is undervalued at its current share price levels.

Our Value category grades stocks based on a number of key metrics, including the tried-and-true P/E ratio, the P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share, as well as a variety of other fundamentals that value investors frequently use.

JAZZ currently has a forward P/E ratio of 6.37, while CTLT has a forward P/E of 51.52. We also note that JAZZ has a PEG ratio of 0.91. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. CTLT currently has a PEG ratio of 1.71.

Another notable valuation metric for JAZZ is its P/B ratio of 1.89. The P/B is a method of comparing a stock's market value to its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. By comparison, CTLT has a P/B of 3.04.

These metrics, and several others, help JAZZ earn a Value grade of A, while CTLT has been given a Value grade of D.

JAZZ stands above CTLT thanks to its solid earnings outlook, and based on these valuation figures, we also feel that JAZZ is the superior value option right now.

Zacks Investment Research

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. AXSM incurred an adjusted loss of $1.34 per share in the third quarter of 2024, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.38. The company had incurred a loss of $1.32 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Axsome’s total revenues surged 81% year over year to $104.8 million in the third quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $99 million. The increase in revenues can be attributed to strong sales of Auvelity (AXS-05).

Shares of Axsome were up 9.4% on Nov. 12 owing to the better-than-expected results and strong sales uptake of Auvelity.

AXSM stock has rallied 25% so far this year against the industry’s decline of 0.9%.

Shares of Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) have gained 8.9% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $127.74, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $175.83 indicates a potential upside of 37.7%.

The average comprises 18 short-term price targets ranging from a low of $113 to a high of $230, with a standard deviation of $33.34. While the lowest estimate indicates a decline of 11.5% from the current price level, the most optimistic estimate points to an 80.1% upside. More than the range, one should note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.

While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.

But, for JAZZ, an impressive average price target is not the only indicator of a potential upside. Strong agreement among analysts about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier strengthens this view. While a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't gauge how much a stock could gain, it has proven to be powerful in predicting an upside.

Here's What You Should Know About Analysts' Price Targets

According to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.

While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?

They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.

However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.

That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.

Here's Why There Could be Plenty of Upside Left in JAZZ

There has been increasing optimism among analysts lately about the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher. And that could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 6.4% over the past month, as seven estimates have gone higher compared to no negative revision.

Moreover, JAZZ currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here

Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much JAZZ could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.

Zacks Investment Research