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The Japanese Yen (JPY) prolongs its uptrend for the fourth successive day and advances to a nearly two-month high against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday.
The Japanese Yen touched a nearly two-month high against the US Dollar on Friday.
Repositioning ahead of the US NFP triggers intraday short covering around USD/JPY.
The narrowing US-Japan rate differential should limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) prolongs its uptrend for the fourth successive day and advances to a nearly two-month high against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday. The recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lift market bets on further interest rate hikes. The resultant narrowing of the rate differential between the BoJ and other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), turns out to be a key factor that continues to underpin the lower-yielding JPY.
Apart from this, the recent US Dollar (USD) sharp pullback from the vicinity of over a two-year high drags the USD/JPY pair below the 151.00 mark for the first time since December 10. That said, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff policies keeps a lid on any further gains for the JPY. Furthermore, traders now seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which assists the currency pair to rebound around 70 pips from the daily low.
Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid rising bets on more BoJ rate hikes
Kazuhiro Masaki, Director General of the Bank of Japan's monetary affairs department, said on Thursday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if underlying inflation accelerates toward its 2% target as projected.
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa told the parliament that the government's focus would be to eradicate a deflationary mindset with a goal to boost minimum wages and take measures to encourage firms to raise wages.
This comes on top of the hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions released on Monday, which showed that policymakers discussed the likelihood of raising interest rates further at the January meeting and continued to boost the Japanese Yen.
Adding to this, data released this week showed that Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages rose 0.6% year-on-year in December, marking the second consecutive monthly gain and backing the case for further tightening by the BoJ.
The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond remains near a 14-year high, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hangs near its lowest level since December amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would stick to its easing bias.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that President Donald Trump's administration was not particularly concerned about the Fed's trajectory on interest rates and that the focus is on bringing down 10-year Treasury yields.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the appearance that inflation has stalled is largely due to base effects and that the central bank needs to be mindful of overheating and deterioration, but things are largely going well.
Separately, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that inflation progress has been significant, but the US labor market remains far too firm to push the central bank into rate cuts any time soon. This, however, does little to impress the US Dollar bulls.
That said, traders opt to lighten their bets and move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, prompting an aggressive intraday short-covering move around the USD/JPY pair on Friday.
USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers at higher levels amid a bearish technical setup
From a technical perspective, this week's breakdown below the 152.50-152.45 confluence – comprising the 100- and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. Hence, any subsequent move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 152.00 mark. Some follow-through buying, however, could lift spot prices further toward the next relevant hurdle near the 152.50-152.45 support-turned-resistance en route to the 153.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 151.00 mark now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. A sustained break and acceptance below the said handle could drag the USD/JPY pair further towards 150.55-150.50 support. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 150.00 psychological mark, below which spot prices could slide to the 149.60 horizontal support before aiming to test the 149.00 mark and the December swing low, around the 148.65 region.
The Indian Rupee flatlines in Friday’s Asian session.
Rising RBI rate cut bets, weakness of Asian peers and uncertainties could undermine the INR.
RBI's interest rate decision will be closely watched on Friday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) holds steady after falling to a fresh all-time low in the previous session. The local currency remains vulnerable amid expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Furthermore, a broader decline among Asian currencies, the uncertainties surrounding US trade tariffs and continued portfolio outflows might undermine the INR.
Nonetheless, the routine intervention by the RBI to sell US Dollar via state-run banks might help limit the INR’s losses. The RBI interest rate decision on Friday will be in the spotlight. Investors will also scrutinize the statement from the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra to assess the direction of the central bank’s monetary policy. The attention will shift to the US labour market data later in the day, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.
Indian Rupee steadies ahead of RBI rate decision
The RBI is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% at the policy meeting concluding on Friday, in what would be its first rate cut in nearly five years.
“The delay in implementation of universal tariffs by the incoming U.S. administration provides some tactical space for RBI to prioritize domestic growth... and space to cut policy rates,” said Ruhul Bajoria, an economist at Bank of America in India.
Most of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate that the Indian central bank will lower the benchmark repurchase rate by at least 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% on Friday.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted on Thursday that the uncertainty makes the environment for the Fed foggier, a reason to slow the pace of cuts.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that while inflation progress has been significant, the US labor market remains far too firm to push the Fed into rate cuts any time soon.
USD/INR paints a positive picture, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls in the short term
The Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. The constructive outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches overbought territory beyond the 70.00 mark, potentially signaling a temporary weakness or further consolidation in the near term.
The immediate resistance level for USD/INR emerges at 87.62, an all-time high. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to the 88.00 psychological level.
On the downside, the initial support level for the pair is located in the 87.05-87.00 zone, representing the low of February 5 and the round mark. A breach of the mentioned level could drag USD/INR down to 86.51, the low of February 3.
Silver price holds ground near its three-month high of $32.56, recorded on February 5.
The upside of the Silver appears limited as the US Dollar gains ground amid rebounding US Treasury yields.
Traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls to gain fresh impetus regarding the Fed’s monetary policy direction.
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains in positive territory for the fifth consecutive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. The precious metal maintains its position near its three-month high of $32.56, recorded on February 5. Traders are awaiting key US labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction.
However, Silver's upside appears limited as the US Dollar (USD) extends its recovery amid rebounding US Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, has climbed near 107.70, while 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields stand at 4.22% and 4.43%, respectively, at the time of writing.
Safe-haven metals like Silver have gained ground amid heightened risk aversion due to global trade and economic uncertainties. However, trade negotiations between the United States (US) and China could temper this sentiment. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to discuss potential tariff rollbacks, which could ease market concerns and limit Silver’s upside.
Diminished fears of a US-China trade war also reduce the risk of rising US inflation, reinforcing expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. As a non-yielding asset, Silver benefits from a dovish stance by major central banks.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut on Friday. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, while the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has signaled potential rate cuts. Additionally, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has paused its quantitative tightening, and Sweden’s Riksbank has cut interest rates.
Aspect | GDP (Nominal GDP) | Real GDP |
---|---|---|
Price Adjustment | Uses current market prices | Uses constant base-year prices |
Inflation Impact | Includes inflation/deflation | Excludes inflation/deflation |
Purpose | Measures current economic output | Measures economic growth over time |
Accuracy | Less accurate for long-term analysis | More accurate for long-term analysis |
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