Live Cattle Higher as Buyers Turn to 2025 — Market Talk

Source: CME Group 
 
For previous business day 
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Platinum             Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered          71,247         0        0       0         0     71,247 
Eligible             8,921         0        0       0         0      8,921 
Total               80,168         0        0       0         0     80,168 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered           1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered           4,373         0        0       0         0      4,373 
Eligible            20,946         0        0       0         0     20,946 
Total               25,319         0        0       0         0     25,319 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered           3,105         0        0       0         0      3,105 
Eligible             1,904         0        0       0         0      1,904 
Total                5,010         0        0       0         0      5,010 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered           3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          13,899         0        0       0         0     13,899 
Eligible            71,287         0        0       0         0     71,287 
Total               85,186         0        0       0         0     85,186 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered           8,221         0        0       0         0      8,221 
Eligible             1,264         0        0       0         0      1,264 
Total                9,486         0        0       0         0      9,486 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered             592         0        0       0         0        592 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                  592         0        0       0         0        592 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered          18,505         0        0       0         0     18,505 
Eligible             1,212         0        0       0         0      1,212 
Total               19,717         0        0       0         0     19,717 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered         125,034         0        0       0         0    125,034 
Eligible           105,534         0        0       0         0    105,534 
Total              230,569         0        0       0         0    230,569 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Palladium            Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered           1,690         0        0       0         0      1,690 
Eligible             3,008         0        0       0         0      3,008 
Total                4,698         0        0       0         0      4,698 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered              97         0        0       0         0         97 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                   97         0        0       0         0         97 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered             887         0        0       0         0        887 
Eligible             3,108         0        0       0         0      3,108 
Total                3,994         0        0       0         0      3,994 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered             586         0        0       0         0        586 
Eligible             2,623         0        0       0         0      2,623 
Total                3,209         0        0       0         0      3,209 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          12,746         0        0       0         0     12,746 
Eligible               728         0        0       0         0        728 
Total               13,474         0        0       0         0     13,474 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          10,011         0        0       0         0     10,011 
Eligible               301         0        0       0         0        301 
Total               10,312         0        0       0         0     10,312 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           2,116         0        0       0         0      2,116 
Eligible               630         0        0       0         0        630 
Total                2,746         0        0       0         0      2,746 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered          28,133         0        0       0         0     28,133 
Eligible            10,398         0        0       0         0     10,398 
Total               38,531         0        0       0         0     38,531 
 
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com 

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--As the trading of canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange resumed following Christmas and Boxing Day, they failed to hang to their late session increases on Friday with most contracts closing to the downside.

Pressure on the Canadian oilseed came from losses in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, along with those in European rapeseed.

Gains in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil helped to limit further decreases. As well, upticks in crude oil underpinned the vegetable oils.

Statistics Canada reported the November canola crush came to 1.02 million tonnes, up more than 12 per cent from a year ago.

StatCan also reported November canola deliveries were 1.45 million tonnes versus 1.64 million the previous November.

Despite the declines in the March canola contract, it held above its 20-day moving average.

There were 32,188 contracts traded on Friday, compared to 30,936 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 14,260 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

 
           Price      Change 
Jan       621.90     up 1.90 
Mar       617.20     dn 2.60 
May       623.50     dn 1.90 
Jul       625.80     dn 2.30 

Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

 
Months    Prices                            Volume 
Jan/Mar   7.00 over to 1.00 under            4,499 
Mar/May   4.00 under to 6.60 under           2,631 
 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

Energy stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index up 0.3% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) easing 0.2%.

The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index fell 0.5%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities index shed 0.6%.

US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 4 million barrels in the week Friday following a decrease of 400,000 barrels in the previous week. Excluding inventories in the SPR, commercial crude oil stocks fell 4.2 million after a 900,000 drop in the previous week, a larger decline than the 600,000 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 1.1% to $70.40 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent advanced 1% to $73.97 a barre after Israeli strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels triggered supply concerns amid the escalating tensions in the region.

US natural gas stocks fell 93 billion cubic feet in the week ended Friday, compared with the 100 billion decrease expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a decrease of 125 billion in the previous week.

Henry Hub natural gas futures slumped 5.4% to $3.51 per 1 million BTU.

In corporate news, Battalion Oil shares rose 16%. The company's Halcon unit refinanced all of its senior secured credit agreements with lenders, who are providing $162 million in borrowing capacity through a new term loan maturing in December 2028.

February WTI crude oil (CLG25) Friday closed up +0.98 (+1.41%), and February RBOB gasoline (RBG25) closed up +0.0139 (+0.71%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday rallied moderately, with crude posting a 1-week high. Crude found support Friday from a weaker dollar. Crude also has support on this week’s reports that China will boost economic stimulus measures to revive its economy. Crude prices added to their gains Friday after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected.

Oil prices continue to be underpinned by global political uncertainty after President-Elect Trump recently threatened to take over the Panama Canal if transit rates are not cut, adding to his various threats for tariffs and increased sanctions.

The outlook for new sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude exports could limit global oil supplies and is bullish for prices. Mike Walz, President-elect Trump's pick for national security adviser, vowed a return to "maximum pressure" on Iran, and the Biden administration said it is considering new, harsher sanctions on Russian crude oil.

A rise in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +7% w/w to 70.20 million bbl in the week ended December 20.

Crude found support earlier this month after OPEC+ pushed back a planned hike of its crude production by +180,000 bpd from January to April and said it would unwind its crude output cuts at a slower pace than planned. Also, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it will delay the planned 300,000 bpd increase in its crude production target from January to April. OPEC+ had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025. However, that is now pushed back until September 2026. OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.

Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is supportive of crude prices. Russia launched a new hypersonic missile into the city of Dnipro late last month, following Ukraine's expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. Also, Russian President Putin warned that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Putin also approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.

Crude oil demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's Nov apparent oil demand fell -2.14% y/y to 14.013 million bpd, and Jan-Nov apparent oil demand was down -3.26% y/y to 13.996 million bpd. China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.

A decline in Russian crude exports is supportive of crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -170,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd in the week to December 15.

Friday's weekly EIA report was mixed for crude and products. On the bullish side, EIA crude inventories fell by -4.24 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -600,000 bbl. Also, EIA distillate stockpiles fell by -1.69 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.0 million bbl. In addition, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -320,000 bbl. On the negative side, EIA gasoline supplies unexpectedly rose +1.63 million bbl versus expectations of a -500,000 bbl draw.

Friday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of December 20 were -6.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending December 20 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.585 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending December 27 were unchanged at 483 rigs, modestly above the 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs posted last month. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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February Nymex natural gas (NGG25) on Friday closed up +0.064 (+1.93%).

Feb nat-gas prices Friday posted moderate gains on the outlook for colder US weather to boost heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said Friday that below-normal temperatures will move into the central and eastern US Jan 1-5 and intensify in the following 5 days. Nat-gas prices fell back from their best levels Friday after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories fell -93 bcf last week, a smaller draw than expectations of -100 bcf.

Lower-48 state dry gas production Friday was 106.4 bcf/day (+1.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Friday was 93 bcf/day (+6.8% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Friday were 14.4 bcf/day (-1.4% w/w), according to BNEF.

An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Thursday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended December 21 rose +1.87% y/y to 79,947 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 21 rose +2.32% y/y to 4,177,082 GWh.

Friday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 20 fell -93 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -100 and a much smaller draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -127 bcf. As of December 20, nat-gas inventories were up +1.1% y/y and were +4.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 76% full as of December 22, below the 5-year seasonal average of 79% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending December 27 were unchanged at 102 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low from September 6 of 94 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

• These 2 Dividend Stocks Were Stars in November. Is It Too Late to Buy?
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• Can Natural Gas Rally?

Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for Jan. delivery lost 23.40 cents per million British thermal units, or 6.24% to $3.5140 per million British thermal units this week

• Largest one week net and percentage decline since the week ending Dec. 6, 2024
• Snaps a two week winning streak
• Today it is down 20.10 cents or 5.41%
• Down for two consecutive sessions
• Down 43.20 cents or 10.95% over the last two sessions
• Largest two day dollar decline since Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2024
• Largest two day percentage decline since Friday, May 24, 2024
• Down three of the past four sessions
• Today's settlement value is the sixth highest this year
• Lowest settlement value since Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024
• Off 10.95% from its 52-week high of $3.946 hit Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024
• Up 123.11% from its 52-week low of $1.575 hit Tuesday, March 26, 2024
• Rose 39.78% from 52 weeks ago
• Off 10.95% from its 2024 settlement high of $3.946 hit Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024
• Up 123.11% from its 2024 settlement low of $1.575 hit Tuesday, March 26, 2024
• Off 77.15% from its record high of $15.378 hit Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2005
• Month-to-date it is up 4.49%
• Year-to-date it is up $1.00 or 39.78%

All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.

Source: Dow Jones Market Data