Logistics Report: Trump Rhetoric Nudged Ports Deal; Tariffs Confound Home Builders

Soybean futures fell below the $9.90 per bushel mark, approaching a nearly two-month low of $9.78 reached in early March, as investors assess the impact of abundant South American supplies and growing uncertainty surrounding an escalating global trade war.

According to data from the grain exporters lobby Anec, Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to hit 15.45 million metric tons in March, representing a more than 4% increase compared to last week's forecast as the country continues to reap its massive new crop.

Meanwhile, traders and farmers will closely monitor export trends amid ongoing U.S. tariff disputes, with major buyers—Mexico, Canada, and China—threatening to reduce purchases of U.S. agricultural goods.

Additionally, the USDA's monthly WASDE report indicated a decrease in projected 2024/2025 U.S. soybean ending stocks, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate, but revised its season-average price forecast downward to $12.00 per bushel.

Palm oil edged higher, buoyed by stronger soybean oil prices, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The two oils often trade in tandem due to their use in similar products. CPO prices were also supported by concerns over output and stock levels in Malaysia, he added. Ng sees support for CPO prices at 4,400 ringgit/ton and resistance at 4,650 ringgit/ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery rose 1 ringgit to 4,489 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

Zinc futures rose to $2,950 per tonne in March, the highest in nearly two months amid persistent threats to supply from major producers.

Major Australian smelter Nyrstar announced it would cut this year's output by 25% as the shortage of ores drove treatment charges to drop to an uncompetitive level.

Consistently, refined zinc output in China sank by 7% last year, also due to lower processing rates from the combination of muted demand and the shortage of ore.

This was after new aggregates showed that global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024.

Also, the Red Dog Mine in Alaska, the world’s largest zinc mine, and responsible for 10% of global output, is due to slow in 2025 as it approaches its depletion of ore.

Consequently, stocks of high-grade zinc in LME warehouses fell by 74,000 tonnes so far this year to 160,000 tonnes.

In the meantime, the latest PMI data showed that manufacturing activity in China unexpectedly expanded in February.

U.S. President Trump's tariffs on steel, and the European Commission's decision to retaliate with measures covering 26 billion euros of EU exports, will only hurt businesses on both sides of the Atlantic, Malte Lohan, chief executive of the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU, says. "The two sides must de-escalate and find a negotiated outcome urgently," he says, saying that the escalating trade spat "will only harm jobs, prosperity and security on both sides of the Atlantic." Lohan said that the U.S.'s steel tariffs this year are more stringent than those imposed in Trump's first term and cover a range of downstream products, "meaning their impact will be harsher and affect even more sectors." (edith.hancock@wsj.com)

Beijing has vowed to retaliate against the Trump administration's 25% global levy on all steel and aluminum imported into the U.S., saying it will do what it takes to protect its interests.

"China will take all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests," Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Wednesday in response to a reporter's question on the tariffs at a briefing.

The Trump administration's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have already sparked retaliation from the European Union. The trading bloc announced countermeasures against the U.S. early Wednesday that could affect U.S. exports valued at about $28 billion, equaling the value of EU exports affected by the U.S. tariffs.

Beijing didn't specify what action it would take in response to the latest tariffs, but its approach to Washington's trade policy under Trump so far has been targeted, with tariffs aimed strategically at goods including agricultural products and trade restrictions imposed on some U.S. companies.

While China is the world's largest steel producer and exporter, it isn't a major supplier of the product to the U.S., with levies imposed during the first Trump administration squeezing most Chinese steel out of the U.S. market.

Analysts at S&P Global Ratings expect U.S. tariffs on China's steel products to have a limited direct impact, but think that the country's steelmaking industry is still in for further pain.

"Indirect effects may arise from the tariffs imposed on key importing countries and downstream sectors at home," they wrote in a report.

China's property-sector bust has saddled Chinese steelmakers with a glut of unsold metal, pushing them to flood overseas markets with the commodity at ultra-competitive prices that have prompted countries to fight back with antidumping investigations.

S&P Global thinks China's struggling steel sector could be facing the start of an export slump as early as the second quarter, noting tariff action from its two largest export markets: Vietnam and South Korea.

Write to Singapore Editors at singaporeeditors@dowjones.com