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The Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) has proposed raising mining royalties in the 2025 federal budget bill. The proposal suggests increasing two key taxes on mining activities, which is at a risk to the sector and the country's economy.
What Happened? The SHCP plans to raise the special tax on mining profits from 7.5% to 8.5% and the extraordinary tax on revenues from the sale of gold, silver, and platinum from 0.5% to 1%. The Ministry justifies the hike by citing rising global metal prices and the nature of those assets.
"Considering that minerals and substances from the subsoil are non-renewable public domain assets, it is proposed to increase the special and extraordinary rights on mining," the SHCP stated in the bill per bnamericas. The Ministry projects that the additional revenues will be allocated to government programs and projects, though specific details were not disclosed.
In 2021, an International Monetary Fund working paper by Alpha Shah explored Mexico's mining tax regime, concluding it was less burdensome than in many comparable nations. Shah's findings pointed out that there is room to increase the overall tax burden on mining while still maintaining competitiveness. The paper suggested a balanced redesign to boost the government's share of resource rents while ensuring the sector remains an attractive investment destination.
Why It Matters? Mining is important to Mexico's economy, contributing 2.5% to GDP and supporting 400,000 direct jobs. The country is the world's leading silver producer and a major supplier of gold and copper. However, with increasing global competition, Mexico could struggle to attract new investments under a higher tax regime.
The country needs significant investment to bolster its mining sector, which has already seen declining fiscal contributions. These contributions fell 32% in 2023, further underlining the need for a balanced approach to taxation. Furthermore, bnamericas noted that industry experts warned the proposed increases could discourage nearly $7 billion in mining investments by 2025, particularly as companies face other challenges, such as reduced concession terms and stricter water-use permits.
While the proposed taxes aim to capture more value from the mining sector, they may also reduce Mexico's appeal compared to peers like Chile, Peru, and Canada. These countries offer competitive tax regimes and have become increasingly attractive destinations for mining investment.
Read Next:
Photo via Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The S&P/ASX 200 is trading at 8388 at the time of writing and is tracking very nicely to close at a new record high today. Things have literally never been so good for Aussie investors. It could be argued these are the main reasons for recent share price strength:
1. China Stimulus
In September, Beijing announced the first of several initiatives to boost the Chinese economy. These, and further promised measures to come, are aimed at boosting consumption, reversing the slide in property prices, and alleviating the burden on heavily indebted local governments and property developers. A strong Chinese economy is generally expected to benefit economic growth here and around the world.
2. The Trump Trade
The Trump + Red Sweep in the recent US elections provided a nice bump for several key S&P/ASX 200 index constituents, particularly those with substantial US earnings, but Aussie banks have also hitched a ride on US bank stocks that are seen as major beneficiaries. US fiscal policy is expected to be expansionary moving forward, and despite the threat of a potential trade war between the US and China, the US presidential result is generally considered to be the most positive of the potential outcomes for the global economy.
3. No Landing Scenario
More generally, there is a growing feeling among economists and research analysts that we’re in for a ‘no landing’ scenario, that is, the economic rebound from after the COVID-19 pandemic largely continues despite central banks running higher interest rates to combat the inflation that it caused. Further, rates are now generally being dialled down from restrictive settings in most economies, and this could help sustain global economic growth even further.
How 2025 is shaping up for the Aussie economy
In a research note released earlier this week, Morgan Stanley predicted that global economic growth would be a healthy 3% in 2025, with the USA driving “the bulk of it”. In 2025, global growth will slow (from 3.2% in 2024) “but not be derailed” the broker said.
Turning closer to home, Morgan Stanley predicts that 2025 will also be a sound growth period for the Australian economy with tailwinds from fiscal spending in the lead-up to the next Federal election, a strong employment market, and modest interest rate cuts from the RBA likely beginning in May.
So for 2025 we hold off on calling the Australian landing just yet.
––Morgan Stanley, 2025 Australia Macro+ Outlook
Resources could be 2025’s big winners
On the topic of China, Morgan Stanley notes it could be a net-flat result in 2025 as Beijing aims to mitigate the negative impact of new US tariffs by ramping up its own economic stimulus measures.
If this scenario plays out, Australian resources companies could be big winners, notes the broker. Morgan Stanley describes its exposure to Australian resources companies as “quite spread”, but that it favours the large, diversified miners, gold, and energy stocks (including uranium).
Morgan Stanley presently has OVERWEIGHT ratings (its highest conviction rating) on large, diversified miners BHP Group , Rio Tinto , and Mineral Resources . It also likes Nickel Industries (nickel exposure only). In energy it likes Whitehaven Coal and Paladin Energy (uranium).
Other areas of the Australian stock market Morgan Stanley would be “Overweight” in 2025 include telecommunications, infrastructure and utilities, real estate, and health care. It prefers to be “Underweight” sectors like financials (banks, insurance and diversified financials), industrials and transport, consumer-related, and housing linked.
Exhibit 18: MS Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio Sector Skews - overweight Defensive Industrials through Telcos, Infra and Utilities. Energy remains our preferred exposure in Resources, whilst holding active underweight in Banks. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as at November 13, 2024. (From: “2025 Australia Macro+ Outlook, It's Tricky...”, Morgan Stanley Research, November 18 2024) (click here for full size image)
Further (modest) upside for Australian stocks in 2025
S&P/ASX 200 price chart
Morgan Stanley notes Aussie stocks have exceeded its forecast in 2024 but without delivering on the earnings growth the broker had forecast at the start of the year. Their original 2024 S&P/ASX 200 target was 8,100, but it’s nearly 300 points or roughly 4% higher than that today. The Australian stock market missed its earnings growth expectations by around 13% this year, concludes Morgan Stanley.
But the good news is it should make this up to a large extent in 2025 due to the factors mentioned above. Morgan Stanley tips S&P/ASX 200 companies will grow their earnings by around 10% in 2025, helping the benchmark index to reach the broker’s 8,500 end-of-year target.
It’s important to remember that targets like these are made on an ex-dividend basis. As stocks pay dividends, their share price falls. So, whilst Morgan Stanley’s 2025 target sounds like slim pickings, one should add in the 4.2% dividend yield also forecast. The total shareholder return (“TSR”) forecast for Aussie stocks in 2025 is therefore closer to 5.5%.
This would be a moderately below-average performance if it were to come to fruition, given the average annual TSR for the S&P/ASX200 over the last 20 years closer to 9.6%.
S&P/ASX 200 Total Shareholder Return ("TSR") Since 2000 (click here for full size image)
BHP provided a comprehensive update on its Chilean copper operations during a four-day investor and analyst site tour from November 18-21. The tour, while marked as non-market sensitive, offered valuable insights into the mining giant's growth strategy and perspectives on the copper market.
Numbers You Need to Know
BHP's Chilean copper snapshot: BHP has operated in Chile for over 30 years, accounting for approximately 27% of the nation's total copper production. The company's Chilean assets, including Escondida, represent the world's largest copper resource, with approximately 26 billion tonnes of resource at 0.53% copper grade.
The mining industry is facing significant challenges that BHP is carefully navigating. More than half the mines operating in 2023 are over 20 years old. Copper grades have been in a consistent long-term decline, falling from approximately 1.00% in 1991 to 0.60% in 2024. Brownfield projects are experiencing increasing capital intensity, rising from US$14,000 per tonne in the 2010s to US$23,200 per tonne in the 2020s.
Greenfield projects present additional complexities, with even approved projects taking up to 17 years from discovery to first production. BHP is seeking to maintain its position in Chile with a program of high-quality projects that leverage existing infrastructure and deliver production growth. The company is targeting an internal rate of return between 15-19% at a capital intensity of US$19-26,000 a tonne.
Analyst Takeaways
Morgan Stanley says the company's copper story remains robust, underpinned by a deficit emerging in the market from 2027 onwards. The analysts retained an Overweight rating with a $46.85 target price. Some of their key findings from the presentation and site trip include:
Chile copper capex is significantly higher, offset by higher production. Assuming all growth projects go ahead, spend for all projects would average US$2.5 billion per annum over FY28-32 or 90% higher than Morgan Stanley estimates. The analysts view this as a negative for free cash flow generation, partially offset by 35-120ktpa more copper production.
Chilean investment environment has improved markedly, with the new royalty regime now in place and referendum on the constitution behind us.
Citi maintained a Buy rating with a $46.00 target price. The analysts highlight BHP's path to sustaining Chile copper output around the average 1.4 million tonnes per annum (100% basis) through FY31-40, after a temporary dip to 1.2 million tonnes in FY27-30.
Goldman Sachs offered the most bullish perspective, with the highest target price of $47.30. The analysts predict that BHP's copper-related EBITDA will grow from 30% of total earnings to 45% by 2030. They cautioned about potential net debt pushing through the US$15 billion ceiling towards the end of the decade, but believe the balance sheet remains strong. The key takeaways from their investment thesis include:
BHP is currently trading at approximately 6.0x Next Twelve Months (NTM) EBITDA, which is slightly below its 25-year average of 6.6x
The company trades at a slight premium to Rio Tinto
Free cash flow yield is currently 3%, just below Rio Tinto's 5%
BHP is forecast to generate US$11.1 billion in copper EBITDA in FY25, growing to US$12.0 billion by FY26
The analysts see BHP's major opportunity in growing copper production in Chile at Escondida and Spence, and capturing synergies in South Australian operations between Olympic Dam and the previous Oz Minerals assets.
Welcome to my ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans series. Here I present scan lists based on my trend following technical analysis methodology. My goal is to alert you to the best uptrends and downtrends on the ASX.
Uptrends Scan List
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
AMA Group | AMA | $0.069 | +9.5% | -4.7% |
Betmakers Technology | BET | $0.115 | +36.9% | +30.7% |
Catapult International | CAT | $3.49 | +37.4% | +229.2% |
Cobram Estate Olives | CBO | $2.00 | +8.1% | +41.3% |
BetaShares Crypto Innovators ETF | CRYP | $7.83 | +36.4% | +156.7% |
Global Data Centre Group | GDC | $1.425 | +14.9% | +76.4% |
Generation Development Group | GDG | $3.82 | +11.0% | +150.0% |
Iperionx | IPX | $4.04 | +27.8% | +167.6% |
Munro Climate Change Leaders ETF | MCCL | $17.27 | +3.4% | +79.0% |
Mirrabooka Investments | MIR | $3.43 | +0.9% | +22.1% |
Orora | ORD | $0.360 | +50.0% | 0% |
Pointsbet | PBH | $0.980 | +46.3% | +140.1% |
Pro Medicus | PME | $214.62 | +14.5% | +145.2% |
Perenti | PRN | $1.245 | +5.1% | +23.3% |
Regal Partners | RPL | $4.15 | +9.5% | +82.0% |
Rpmglobal | RUL | $3.13 | +5.4% | +101.3% |
Ricegrowers | SGLLV | $9.71 | +5.5% | +65.6% |
Shape Australia | SHA | $2.89 | +9.1% | +80.6% |
Silex Systems | SLX | $6.03 | +16.9% | +78.9% |
Block | SQ2 | $141.89 | +28.4% | +63.4% |
SRG Global | SRG | $1.335 | +19.2% | +102.3% |
Sovereign Metals | SVM | $0.790 | +17.9% | +83.7% |
Today's Uptrends Scan List
Feature Charts from today's Uptrends List 🔎📈
The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess demand from today's Uptrends List are: Betmakers Technology Group , Catapult Group International , Generation Development Group G, Pointsbet , Pro Medicus , Perenti , Regal Partners R, Rpmglobal , Shape Australia Corporation S, Silex Systems , Block , SRG Global , Sovereign Metals .
Charts of each below:
Downtrends Scan List
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Atlas Arteria | ALX | $4.81 | -3.8% | -20.1% |
Arafura Rare Earths | ARU | $0.130 | -21.2% | -31.6% |
Aurizon | AZJ | $3.41 | -1.2% | -6.3% |
Bapcor | BAP | $4.56 | -6.6% | -19.9% |
BHP Group | BHP | $40.08 | -4.9% | -14.0% |
Brickworks | BKW | $26.34 | -5.0% | +2.0% |
Bannerman Energy | BMN | $2.78 | -15.5% | +4.9% |
Boss Energy | BOE | $3.04 | -16.7% | -25.9% |
Challenger | CGF | $6.16 | +1.7% | +6.9% |
Chalice Mining | CHN | $1.390 | -28.0% | -17.8% |
Champion Iron | CIA | $5.33 | -13.9% | -32.1% |
Centuria Industrial Reit | CIP | $2.98 | -5.7% | -2.9% |
Cromwell Property | CMW | $0.395 | -10.2% | -8.1% |
Charter Hall Retail Reit | CQR | $3.40 | -1.2% | +3.0% |
Coronado Global | CRN | $0.940 | -12.6% | -39.6% |
Cettire | CTT | $1.270 | -43.6% | -57.5% |
Dicker Data | DDR | $8.58 | -3.7% | -23.8% |
Droneshield | DRO | $0.755 | -25.6% | +143.5% |
Dexus | DXS | $6.83 | -6.3% | -4.5% |
Elders | ELD | $7.47 | -11.8% | +2.7% |
Fortescue | FMG | $17.75 | -9.1% | -29.6% |
Graincorp | GNC | $7.99 | -12.1% | +4.8% |
IDP Education | IEL | $13.18 | -3.9% | -44.6% |
IGO | IGO | $4.96 | -5.7% | -44.3% |
Iluka Resources | ILU | $5.49 | -8.2% | -25.8% |
Imugene | IMU | $0.040 | -20.0% | -55.1% |
Karoon Energy | KAR | $1.365 | -2.8% | -33.4% |
Kelsian Group | KLS | $3.87 | -5.8% | -40.4% |
Lovisa | LOV | $27.16 | -10.7% | +46.6% |
Liontown Resources | LTR | $0.805 | -5.3% | -45.6% |
Mineral Resources | MIN | $34.71 | -8.3% | -45.3% |
Metcash | MTS | $3.08 | -7.5% | -18.1% |
Nick Scali | NCK | $13.84 | -3.3% | +16.5% |
NIB | NHF | $5.64 | -5.2% | -25.1% |
OFX Group | OFX | $1.340 | -2.2% | -7.6% |
Pilbara Minerals | PLS | $2.89 | +4.0% | -18.8% |
Patriot Battery Metals | PMT | $0.275 | -32.9% | -73.6% |
Reece | REH | $24.22 | -8.3% | +24.5% |
Region Group | RGN | $2.13 | -6.2% | -0.9% |
Select Harvests | SHV | $3.58 | -8.9% | -18.5% |
Smartgroup Corporation | SIQ | $7.80 | -3.8% | -6.3% |
Skycity Entertainment | SKC | $1.255 | +3.7% | -21.8% |
Spark New Zealand | SPK | $2.73 | +1.5% | -40.7% |
Wildcat Resources | WC8 | $0.270 | -26.0% | -66.7% |
Worley | WOR | $14.15 | -2.8% | -18.0% |
Today's Downtrends Scan List
Feature Charts from today's Downtrends List 🔎📉
The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess supply from today's Downtrends List are: BHP Group , Chalice Mining , Champion Iron , Coronado Global Resources , Cettire , Droneshield , Elders , Graincorp , IGO , NIB .
Charts of each below:
ChartWatch Primer
For a detailed explanation of Carl's technical analysis methodology, be sure to check out this ChartWatch Primer.
Important considerations when using the ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans:
1. The future is unknown. Anything can happen to change the trends in the lists above. A stock in a perfect uptrend or downtrend may not remain that way by the close of trading today. 2. These lists are not exhaustive, they are curated by Carl. You will find that certain stocks might not appear in a particular list on consecutive days but might reappear when Carl feels it deserves to return to the list. 3. This is not a recommendation service, merely an aid to help you better understand the workings of Carl’s technical analysis model in a practical way. Carl will not alert you to stocks that have dropped off a list because their trend has changed – it is up to you to apply the criteria to determine why a particular stock might not still be included. 4. This is general, educational information only – always do your own research.
BHP has announced plans to invest up to $14 billion to enhance its copper production in Chile, as revealed during a three-day site tour of its operations. This substantial capital expenditure aims to secure the long-term future of its assets in the region and support the growing global demand for copper.
Brandon Craig, President of BHP's Minerals Americas business, noted the significance of the company's Chilean operations.
"BHP has the largest contained copper resource globally, and almost half of that is in Chile. Our 30 billion tons of total copper resources in Chile could support almost seven years of global demand. And this excludes our share of Filo del Sol, Josemaria, Antamina, and Resolution," he said.
This capex cycle will focus on the Escondida mine, the world's largest copper operation. BHP plans to allocate $7.3 billion to $9.8 billion to offset ore grade declines and prepare for the closure of the Los Colorados plant in 2029.
The construction of a new concentrator at Escondida, set to produce between 220,000 and 260,000 tons annually starting in 2031/32, will require $4.4 billion to $5.9 billion. Additional projects include expanding the Laguna Seca plant and introducing new leaching facilities, which should add up to 125,000 tons annually, starting in 2030.
Beyond Escondida, an investment of $2.8 billion to $3.9 billion should boost Pampa Norte, which includes the Spence and Cerro Colorado mines. Utilizing supergene leaching techniques, the restart of Cerro Colorado alone could contribute up to 100,000 tons annually.
These efforts are part of a broader strategy to stabilize BHP's total copper output at around 1.4 million tons per year by 2031, particularly after the company failed to realize a $49 billion Anglo American acquisition earlier this year.
BMO's analyst Alexander Pearce said that the total planned copper addition exceeded market expectations, and the associated costs were less than feared. In a note, he described much of the expenditure as "sustaining capital to offset grade decline."
BHP's increased focus on copper reflects the metal's critical role in the global energy transition and the rise of electric vehicles, both of which are driving copper demand for wiring and components. The company estimates an additional one million tons of copper will be required annually until 2035, with demand expected to surge by 70% by 2050.
Despite its ambitious plans, BHP's Chilean operations face challenges. Alexis Barrera, union president at Minera Escondida, criticized the company for alleged labor law violations, citing a recent case involving a dismissed worker on medical leave.
"We are asking BHP to stop violating Chilean labor laws and abusing the company's dismissal system," Barrera stated for bnamericas, noting concerns about women on maternity leave being unfairly affected.
Read Next:
Photo via Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 47.7 points lower, down 0.57%.
All three winning sectors form today's trade are generally considered to be quite defensive in nature. As a fund manager, they’re the sectors you buy when you reluctantly have to buy something on the day…
Losers? They were far easier to spot as the Aussie stock market performed a disappointing about-face from yesterday's record intraday high. Where did all the buyers go!? 🤔
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Iron Ore and Copper in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Wed 20 Nov 24, 5:03pm (AEDT)
Name | Value | % Chg |
---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
ASX 200 | 8,326.3 | -0.57% |
All Ords | 8,579.1 | -0.58% |
Small Ords | 3,127.8 | -0.84% |
All Tech | 3,878.8 | -0.45% |
Emerging Companies | 2,277.7 | -0.27% |
Currency | ||
AUD/USD | 0.6524 | -0.12% |
US Futures | ||
S&P 500 | 5,946.25 | +0.13% |
Dow Jones | 43,474.0 | +0.17% |
Nasdaq | 20,793.5 | +0.12% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
---|---|---|
Sector | ||
Health Care | 43,909.6 | +0.27% |
Utilities | 8,975.3 | +0.19% |
Financials | 8,928.8 | -0.40% |
Materials | 16,652.2 | -0.40% |
Consumer Staples | 11,522.4 | -0.53% |
Information Technology | 2,905.2 | -0.82% |
Real Estate | 3,947.7 | -0.97% |
Energy | 8,672.8 | -1.02% |
Consumer Discretionary | 3,875.7 | -1.10% |
Industrials | 7,575.2 | -1.31% |
Communication Services | 1,668.1 | -1.53% |
Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 47.7 points lower at 8,326.3, 0.84% from its session high and just 0.10% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a truly dismal 64 to 214.
The Gold (XGD) (+0.67%) sub-index was the best performing sector for a second day in a row, again helped by an improving gold (and silver) price. Health Care (XHJ) (+0.27%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.19%) were the only other sectors that managed to close in the black today .
To be fair, gains in each of these sectors was hardly emphatic. Health Care's gain, for example was extremely narrow – really just stemming from CSL (+1.1%) and Pro Medicus (+0.96%).
Also consider all three winning sectors today are generally considered to be quite defensive in nature. As a fund manager, they’re the sectors you buy when you reluctantly have to buy something on the day…
If we really want to discuss winners. Proper winners, scroll/swipe down to today's Interesting Moves section. There you'll see just how consistent today's winners were with my ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists. It might be worth keeping an eye on this update, published each morning at 9am Eastern on the dot! 🧐📈
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Iperionx (IPX) | $4.04 | +$0.22 | +5.8% | +27.8% | +167.6% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $2.95 | +$0.13 | +4.6% | -16.0% | +268.8% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | $3.90 | +$0.11 | +2.9% | +25.0% | +2.6% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $1.495 | +$0.035 | +2.4% | -12.8% | +83.4% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.430 | +$0.01 | +2.4% | -50.9% | +17.8% |
Healius (HLS) | $1.340 | +$0.03 | +2.3% | -23.0% | -23.8% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $2.47 | +$0.05 | +2.1% | -0.8% | +59.9% |
Regis Healthcare (REG) | $6.44 | +$0.1 | +1.6% | -1.7% | +135.0% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.64 | +$0.04 | +1.5% | -9.9% | +48.7% |
Nanosonics (NAN) | $3.45 | +$0.05 | +1.5% | +0.6% | -19.4% |
CSL (CSL) | $274.30 | +$2.94 | +1.1% | -6.7% | +6.1% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $4.95 | +$0.05 | +1.0% | -6.1% | +37.5% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $17.07 | +$0.17 | +1.0% | -2.3% | +45.2% |
Pro Medicus (PME) | $214.62 | +$2.03 | +1.0% | +14.5% | +145.2% |
Newmont (NEM) | $65.89 | +$0.62 | +1.0% | -23.8% | +16.8% |
Westgold Resources (WGX) | $2.78 | +$0.02 | +0.7% | -15.5% | +31.8% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.835 | +$0.01 | +0.5% | -6.4% | -0.3% |
Ebos Group (EBO) | $33.90 | +$0.14 | +0.4% | +2.7% | -0.5% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.305 | +$0.005 | +0.4% | -16.9% | -7.1% |
APA Group (APA) | $7.18 | +$0.02 | +0.3% | +1.1% | -13.9% |
Today’s best stocks from the strongest ASX sectors
Everything that’s considered to be skewed more to the risk-on end of the spectrum was hit much harder today – a complete about face of the typical sentiment you’d usually associate with a market that just tipped a new all time high just yesterday.
It's enough to leave one scratching their head and with a slightly uneasy feeling in the pit of one's stomach...😟
High-PE tech related sectors like Communication Services (XTJ) (-1.5%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.82%) were notable thematic losers. But so too were growth-related sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.1%), Energy (XEJ) (-1.0%), and Resources (XJR) (-0.39%).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
PWR Holdings (PWH) | $6.85 | -$2.23 | -24.6% | -22.9% | -33.5% |
Appen (APX) | $2.24 | -$0.35 | -13.5% | +10.3% | +167.7% |
Mader Group (MAD) | $5.83 | -$0.58 | -9.0% | -3.0% | -8.3% |
Droneshield (DRO) | $0.755 | -$0.04 | -5.0% | -25.6% | +143.5% |
Redox (RDX) | $3.89 | -$0.16 | -4.0% | +6.3% | +55.0% |
New Hope (NHC) | $4.77 | -$0.18 | -3.6% | -3.2% | -8.1% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.365 | -$0.05 | -3.5% | -2.8% | -33.4% |
Brambles (BXB) | $18.92 | -$0.68 | -3.5% | +1.7% | +43.7% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $29.57 | -$1. | -3.3% | +6.4% | +114.0% |
Reliance Worldwide (RWC) | $5.39 | -$0.17 | -3.1% | -5.8% | +36.8% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | $3.18 | -$0.1 | -3.0% | +12.8% | +685.2% |
Smartgroup (SIQ) | $7.80 | -$0.23 | -2.9% | -3.8% | -6.3% |
IDP Education (IEL) | $13.18 | -$0.38 | -2.8% | -3.9% | -44.6% |
Challenger (CGF) | $6.16 | -$0.17 | -2.7% | +1.7% | +6.9% |
Reece (REH) | $24.22 | -$0.62 | -2.5% | -8.3% | +24.5% |
Austal (ASB) | $3.16 | -$0.08 | -2.5% | +0.3% | +73.6% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | $5.33 | -$0.13 | -2.4% | -13.9% | -32.1% |
Telstra Group (TLS) | $3.85 | -$0.09 | -2.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
AUB Group (AUB) | $31.41 | -$0.73 | -2.3% | -0.8% | +11.4% |
NRW (NWH) | $3.91 | -$0.09 | -2.3% | +4.0% | +58.3% |
Today’s worst stocks from the weakest ASX sectors
ChartWatch
Iron Ore 62% (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX
Snooze 😴
The last time we covered iron ore was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 12 November.
In that update, we noted markets were again disappointed that another major Chinese government policy meeting passed without unveiling the much anticipated “stimulus bazooka”. There was also a general malaise that had beset metals markets following the Trump + Red Sweep US election result (tariffs on Chinese exports to the USA = 👎).
Not a great deal has changed since then, with the price of iron ore dipping further, then steadying, to close roughly the same as it was at that update.
The short term trend is still down, though, and the long term downtrend has had time to solidify further. The price action looks comfortable in falling peaks and falling troughs mode, and the candles are mixed at best.
Bottom line: Equilibrium with a slight supply-side bias.
95.80 is the nearest point of demand. A close below it would likely facilitate a probe of major demand at 88.35-89.15.
The long term trend ribbon is the nearest point of supply. It kicks in around 103.60 but is reinforced by static points of demand at 106.20, 108.95, and then the “big one”, 113.60-114.90. The iron ore price must deal with each of these if it wants to reverse the prevailing long term downtrend.
The path of least resistance remains down here, albeit at a slow grind. There remains no sign whatsoever of the seasonal rally that really should be beginning as you finish reading this sentence.
It’d going to take some large demand-side candles to kick it off (long white-bodied candles and or long downward pointing shadow). It will stand out like dogs’ you know what’s when it happens. Until then…hit the snooze button! 😴
High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX
Copper copping it...
The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on Evening Wrap on 12 November.
In that update, I said “it is growing clear to me that the supply side is in control of the price again”. Indeed, several supply-side candles have followed to cause the copper price to smash into the key 3.989-4.042 demand zone.
I also noted in that last update, that the candles in that zone would be critical. Note one of the classic “fingerprints of excess demand” as I call them – the long downward pointing shadow of the 14 November candle smack-bang in the demand zone – stamped out a temporary low.
The rally since then is less than inspiring. We just haven’t seen an emphatic demand-side follow through in either the candles or the volume.
This leads me to believe the short term downtrend ribbon is likely to offer some stiff excess supply, it will kick in around 4.24. Not far above the short term downtrend ribbon is a further potential wall of supply in the form of the long term downtrend ribbon, as well as the static 4.274-4.294 zone.
Watch the candles closely from here because black-bodied variants or those with long upward pointing shadows into known zones of supply will likely terminate this fledgling bounce.
In this scenario, if 3.989 goes then 3.893 may hold, but probing of lower demand areas like 3.753 or even 3.657 may also be possible.
Only a strong demand-side candle closing deep into the abovementioned supply zones would signal sentiment, and therefore control of the price, has changed.
Economy
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Later this week
Wednesday
18:00 UK Core Consumer Price Index October (CPI) (+3.1% p.a. forecast vs 3.2% p.a. in September)
Thursday
19:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks
Friday
09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)
19:15 EUR Various countries Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs October (Germany: Manufacturing forecast 43.1 vs 43.0 in September & Services 51.8 forecast vs 51.6 in September; Eurozone: Manufacturing forecast no change at 46.0 & Services forecast no change at 51.6)
Saturday
01:45 US Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)
Latest News
Midday Market Movers ehl era
Stocks making the biggest moves at noon: Energy Resources of Australia, PWR Holdings and more
Wed 20 Nov 24, 12:16pm (AEDT)
Quick Takes hls
Healius could pay a one-off special dividend of $300 million (or 25-30% yield)
Wed 20 Nov 24, 10:45am (AEDT)
Technical Analysis aai alq
ChartWatch ASX Scans: Alcoa, ALS, Brambles, Generation Development, Hub24, Noviqtech, Cettire, CSL, Elders, IGO
Wed 20 Nov 24, 9:00am (AEDT)
Market Wraps
Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, US markets mixed + Gold, iron ore and lithium miners to rise
Wed 20 Nov 24, 8:36am (AEDT)
Market Wraps alq deg
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 tips new record on surging gold, energy and tech stocks, lithium stocks tank despite rising lithium price
Tue 19 Nov 24, 6:00pm (AEDT)
Director Transactions ben ctd
Insider Trades: Directors bought and sold shares in these 6 ASX 200 stocks last week
Tue 19 Nov 24, 3:46pm (AEDT)
More News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+8.4% Catapult Group International (CAT) - Continued positive response to yesterday's N, yet again, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making it one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+5.9% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - NexGen Achieves Major Permitting Milestone, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making (recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈
+5.8% Iperionx (IPX) - IperionX 2024 Sustainability Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+5.4% Rpmglobal (RUL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+5.3% Regal Partners (RPL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+4.3% SRG Global (SRG) - Continued positive response to yesterday's $700m of Contracts Secured with Key Repeat Clients, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+3.3% Perenti (PRN) - Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+3.2% Generation Development Group (GDG) - Continued positive response to yesterday's AGM presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+3.2% Pointsbet (PBH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
Trading lower
-24.6% PWR Holdings (PWH) - PWR Trading Update, yet again, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends making it a regularly Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
-13.5% Appen (APX) - No news, generally weaker ASX tech sector today, pullback after a strong rally
-9.8% Webjet (WJL) - Delayed release of 1H25 results
-9.5% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Continued negative response to 15 Nov Peninsula Energy/Lance Project Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-9.0% Mader Group (MAD) - Change of Director's Interest Notice and Change in substantial holding (CEO and founder sell down)
-7.5% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, consistent with recent extreme price volatility, back below long term downtrend ribbon
-6.6% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
-5.0% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
-4.8% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
-4.7% Immutep (IMM) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉
Broker Notes
ALS (ALQ)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.65 from $14.85
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $14.40 from $14.25
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $17.70 from $16.90
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.25 from $15.00
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $16.75 from $15.50
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.50 from $16.30
Atlas Arteria (ALX)
Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80
Amcor (AMC)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.00
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.50
BHP Group (BHP)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $46.00
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $47.30 from $47.80
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.85
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $43.00
Capricorn Metals (CMM)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.54 from $7.23
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.10
Cochlear (COH)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $305.00
Elders (ELD)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.75
Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.61 from $0.66
Gentrack Group (GTK)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $11.50 from $10.90
Healius (HLS)
Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.50
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00
KMD Brands (KMD)
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.50
Lotus Resources (LOT)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.42
Monadelphous Group (MND)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $13.90 from $13.80
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.20
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.44 from $14.50
Newmont Corporation (NEM)
Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $72.50 from $74.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $82.00
New Hope Corporation (NHC)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.00
Netwealth Group (NWL)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00
Paladin Energy (PDN)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.20
Pilbara Minerals (PLS)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90
Qantas Airways (QAN)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50 from $8.50
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.80
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.25 from $19.30
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $124.00
Resimac Group (RMC)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30
Steadfast Group (SDF)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80
Seek (SEK)
Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $28.50
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.50
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $27.00 from $22.00
Sonic Healthcare (SHL)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00
SRG Global (SRG)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.40
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.40
Santos (STO)
Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.60
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.90
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $7.85 from $7.90
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.99 from $7.97
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.75
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.15 from $8.40
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00
Technology One (TNE)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $29.50 from $24.00
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $26.90 from $24.05
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $27.00 from $18.50
Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.90 from $22.20
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.50 from $15.20
Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $29.90 from $20.50
Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.20 from $17.60
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $35.00 from $24.00
Retained at hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $29.30 from $17.30
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $33.80 from $26.20
Wagners Holding Company (WGN)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.25
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
NYM | Narryer Metals Ltd | $0.031 | +55.00% |
RB6 | RUBIX Resources Ltd | $0.11 | +22.22% |
TKM | Trek Metals Ltd | $0.028 | +21.74% |
AJX | Alexium Internati... | $0.012 | +20.00% |
BET | Betmakers Technol... | $0.115 | +19.79% |
View all top gainers
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
ADX | ADX Energy Ltd | $0.06 | -40.00% |
PWH | PWR Holdings Ltd | $6.85 | -24.56% |
G11 | G11 Resources Ltd | $0.013 | -23.53% |
MNC | Merino & Co. Ltd | $0.32 | -21.95% |
QEM | QEM Ltd | $0.036 | -21.74% |
View all top fallers
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
CAY | Canyon Resources Ltd | $0.185 | +12.12% |
KP2 | Kore Potash Plc | $0.068 | +11.48% |
SHO | Sportshero Ltd | $0.021 | +10.53% |
AME | Alto Metals Ltd | $0.086 | +8.86% |
CAT | Catapult Group In... | $3.49 | +8.39% |
View all 52 week highs
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
ADX | ADX Energy Ltd | $0.06 | -40.00% |
PWH | PWR Holdings Ltd | $6.85 | -24.56% |
G11 | G11 Resources Ltd | $0.013 | -23.53% |
QEM | QEM Ltd | $0.036 | -21.74% |
BSN | Basin Energy Ltd | $0.022 | -21.43% |
View all 52 week lows
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
AN3PI | Australia and New... | $104.50 | -0.29% |
PCI | Perpetual Credit ... | $1.16 | 0.00% |
WVOL | Ishares MSCI Worl... | $41.28 | -0.43% |
IPX | Iperionx Ltd | $4.04 | +5.76% |
GCI | Gryphon Capital I... | $2.03 | -0.49% |
View all near highs
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
---|---|---|---|
WLE | Wam Leaders Ltd | $1.25 | -1.96% |
IRE | Iress Ltd | $9.28 | -0.86% |
RSG | Resolute Mining Ltd | $0.43 | +2.38% |
PWH | PWR Holdings Ltd | $6.85 | -24.56% |
SMP | Smartpay Holdings... | $0.575 | +0.88% |
View all RSI oversold
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