Mw Bank Stocks Are Suffering Another Bad Week. These Analysts Aren't Worried

By Steve Gelsi

Bank stocks shed more red ink even as Baird analyst upgrades Bank of America and JPMorgan on valuation

Bank stocks moved into the red Friday to bring their losses for the week into the 10%-plus range as the February jobs report provided no lift and sector investors took their queues from the U.S. government-debt market.

Investors mostly brushed aside upgrades of Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. by Baird analyst David A. George, who said it may be time to wade into some names.

As yields on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y fell and prices of government debt rose, bank-stock prices have continued to weaken.

As yields drop, banks are under more pressure to cut the interest they charge for mortgages and other loans. It's also been a signal to sell cyclical stocks such as banks, said Truist analyst Brian Foran.

"Lower rates plus a flatter [yield] curve and wider credit spreads equals sell cyclicals," Foran said.

Banks are also facing more uncertainty tied to tariffs and other changes in Washington, D.C., as corporations and private-equity firms tap the brakes on dealmaking until some of the dust settles.

"It wasn't obvious banks were going the biggest losers from trade wars, and guidance updates this week were benign," Foran said. "There is still a lot of uncertainty."

Also read: Private-equity buyout activity slows down in a troubling sign for investment banks

The last seven days marked the third "brutal" week in a row for bank stocks, he said.

Meanwhile, Baird analyst George upgraded Bank of America's stock to outperform from neutral.

"We have always been fans of the BAC franchise given its best-in-class deposit franchise, consistent execution, relatively low credit risk, and top-tier markets businesses, but felt the valuation didn't make sense - we think it does now with the stock in the low $40s," George said in a research note.

George also upgraded JPMorgan Chase's stock to neutral from underperform.

"We aren't buyers of the stock but don't believe it makes sense to be short, as defensive-minded market participants will likely move into JPM if economic data gets a little more volatile," George said. "JPM is very well-positioned to take market share throughout its businesses while expanding margins and returns, and its enviable capital position gives the company ultimate flexibility to invest and return capital to the extent it makes economic sense."

Baird also upgraded Huntington Bancshares Inc.'s stock (HBAN) to outperform from neutral, calling the company a "high-quality regional" bank.

Citigroup Inc.'s stock (C) is down 13.7% on the week and 17.5% in the past month.

Morgan Stanley's stock (MS) has fallen 12.5% in the past week including a 2.4% drop on Friday. It's down nearly 17% in the past month.

JPMorgan's stock (JPM) has fallen nearly 9% in the past week, while Bank of America's stock (BAC) is down about 11.4% over the same time period.

Wells Fargo & Co.'s stock (WFC) has fallen 11.9% this week, including a 5% drop on Friday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) has lost about 11.6% of its value this week, including a drop of 3.1% on Friday.

The broad banking sector fell this week as well, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index BKX down 10.7% on the week including a 2.6% drop on Friday.

-Steve Gelsi

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

By Kenneth Corbin

Stocks of banks and brokerages have had a rough week as investors grapple with the potential fallout from President Donald Trump's tariffs and the possibility of a broader economic slowdown that could spell trouble for the nation's banks and brokerages. On Tuesday, stocks tracked in the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index ended down 4.6%, while the broader S&P 500 slipped 1.2%. Bank and brokerage stocks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Robinhood Markets endured more selling later in the week on similar worries, as analysts wonder whether the market is anticipating a weakening economy amid declining consumer confidence and a host of other worrisome indicators.

Among other most-read wealth management articles this week:

UBS, Tesla, and the big short . A group of investors have won a $95 million award in an arbitration case they brought against UBS and one of its advisors, Andrew Burish. The Barron's Hall of Fame advisor allegedly steered his clients into "highly risky" short positions on Tesla, only to see the company's stock price go on a steep ascent. The investors brought claims of fraud and breach of fiduciary duty, among other allegations. UBS counters that the clients were sophisticated investors who knew what they were doing, and says it will ask a court to review the arbitration award.

Advisor firms need smarter growth . The past several years have been something like a gold rush in the registered investment advisory space, with numerous large RIAs acquiring smaller firms in record numbers. The acquisition bonanza isn't exactly slowing down, but the most aggressive acquirers are approaching an "inflection point" that will require them to focus on integrating the businesses they have snapped up and carefully planning their future strategy, our guest columnist writes. Those firms must improve efficiencies across their platforms, vendors, custodians, and technology operations. The relative success of those efforts will lay bare which firms are prepared to operate as a cohesive enterprise and which will continue to function as a cluster of disparate businesses.

Hard time for former Morgan advisor . A former advisor with Morgan Stanley has been sentenced to 22 months in prison for misappropriating an elderly client's funds. Ronald Diaz had pitched the client on an annuity paying a "guaranteed" 10% return, only there was no legitimate investment, and he used the money on a variety of personal expenses as well as some bogus "interest" payments to the client. The victim died amid the Justice Department's investigation, and Diaz was ordered to pay nearly $870,000 to the client's next of kin. Diaz was ordered to surrender to the U.S. Marshals Service March 31 to begin serving his sentence.

Morgan Stanley won't take the win . It sounds odd, but Morgan Stanley is appealing a partial victory it won in a dispute with a group of former advisors who claimed that the firm improperly withheld deferred compensation they were owed when they jumped to a competitor. Morgan Stanley had asked a federal court to order the parties to take their dispute to an arbitration panel. A judge agreed, but in so ruling also found that Morgan Stanley's deferred-comp plans were governed by Erisa, the federal statute that applies to retirement and benefit plans. The firm says that finding has been "wreaking havoc" on its arbitration cases. Morgan Stanley has been seeking to have that ruling overturned, arguing that the issue turns on compensation — not benefits. Now the plaintiffs have responded, calling for a judge to reject the firm's request outright.

A very modern financial planning training program . Hannah Moore's novel approach to advisor training, what she calls The Externship, was born out of the onset of the pandemic. As the spring months of 2020 dragged on and summer internships at wealth management shops — and all other segments of the economy — were canceled, Moore and her husband developed an online training curriculum that aimed to fill in some of the training gaps left by the dislocation. The program requires about a 20-hour weekly commitment and includes recorded interviews with 24 financial planners who discuss core functions such as tax planning or passive investment, as well as recordings of actual planning sessions that Moore has held with her clients.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Leonardo DRS rose 3% after Bank of America upgraded it to Buy, citing its strong position in U.S. Navy contracts, particularly the Columbia-class submarine program. Analysts see mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and believe recent stock weakness presents a buying opportunity. The company also launched its first dividend and a $75 million share buyback program.

Meanwhile, Bank of America investors have filed claims following a $250 million penalty for multiple violations. You can find more details about it here and stay updated on any future changes.