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NASDAQ 100: Really Bullish Or Is It Weaker Dollar
Summary:
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.49% to 16,811.85, setting a new intraday high and closing high.
The Nasdaq 100 index posted a bullish candlestick for the seventh day in a row, surging to a two-year high and a new mid-term high.
U.S. stocks are currently in a strong bull market, and the Nasdaq 100 Index has historically been a great investment in bull markets.
This index touched its previous record high yesterday, though it shied away from hitting a new milestone. As with the Dow, there is presently no sign of a pullback in the works, so the focus is on whether buyers can succeed in eking out a new record high before the end of the year.
In the short-term, some weakness may target the 16,000 area, where the price consolidated in November before its most recent leg higher.
Last week, weaker-than-expected US inflation data and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve gave US stocks a big tailwind, with markets now expecting a rate cut in March 2024. I am happy to take a long position in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Especially since we saw a simple moving average crossover where the 50 day mark crossed his 100 day mark.
Stock markets, particularly in the United States, are generally optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record high yesterday and the benchmark S&P 500 hitting a 23-month high, close to its all-time high.
The bullish environment is due in part to a weaker dollar, and in part to more dovish expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024.
CME's FedWatch tool estimates a 67.50% probability that the first 25 basis point rate cut will occur in March 2024.
Despite pushback from Bostic and another FOMC member, who said yesterday that the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates.
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (December 20)
0:06
Map of warships currently deployed in the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, and Arabian Sea.
Yesterday, the naval chiefs of several countries with interests in the strategic Indian Ocean region kicked off a four-day meeting.
The meeting took place in Bangkok, Thailand, and was called the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). Participants will discuss how to strengthen maritime cooperation, address challenges and strengthen maritime security architecture.
IONS is a voluntary initiative aimed at strengthening maritime cooperation among the navies of littoral countries in the Indian Ocean region. It consists of 25 member countries and eight observers.
Therefore, keep an eye on IONS developments in the coming days as these countries may propose their own military operations, separate from Operation Prosperity Keepers.
0:51
Yemeni media threatens again: Any threat against Yemen will turn the Red Sea into a graveyard for your fragile warships!
1:32
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that the Ukrainian army is seeking to mobilize an additional 450,000-500,000 soldiers.
3:13
The Houthi armed forces in Yemen have unveiled their deadly weapon against the U.S. Navy and its coalition aircraft carrier battle group: Iran's "Tankil" anti-ship ballistic missiles!
Iran's "Tankil" (🇾🇪Yemeni name is "Zoheir") anti-ship ballistic missile was exported to Yemen a few years ago. This missile is in Ansarullah's arsenal and will be a very useful weapon in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
6:43
Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh will lead a delegation to Egypt to discuss a deal to release prisoners.
6:58
Breaking News: Bloomberg reports that the United States and its allies are studying options for military strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
7:01
THESEUS, a large container ship owned by Costamare, has stopped its transit plan through the Bab el-Mandab Strait and is currently staying off the coast of Yemen.
7:16
A senior U.S. official told Politico: 19 countries have signed up to join the Red Sea Naval Alliance, but most countries have requested that their participation not be made public (including Arab countries).
7:52
Israel is desperately trying to reach a deal with Hamas, and they sent a proposal through Qatar:
1) Release 40 prisoners in exchange for a week-long ceasefire. 2) Qatar meets Hamas’ demands: any prisoner deal includes an end to the fighting. 3) Mossad chief responded: The war ends when Hamas disarms and hands over the attack planners.
Result: Nothing has been achieved yet.
8:14
It is reported that tankers carrying Russian oil are not afraid of shelling by Houthi armed forces.
Although Europe's largest oil companies have suspended oil shipments through the Red Sea due to increasingly frequent Houthi attacks, Russia's largest oil companies continue to actively transport raw materials along this route with the help of a shadow fleet.
Thus, shortly after the attack on the Norwegian oil tanker on December 18, a shipment of Russian raw materials passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and several such shipments are currently actively moving in this direction.
In addition, several Russian oil tankers are already preparing to pass through the Suez Canal.
Currently, the Russian Federation is the only major exporter west of Suez that has not seen a decrease in its utilization of the Red Sea: even in November-December, Russian oil transit volumes remained at 1.5 million barrels per day, only as Turkey increased its demand for Russian oil Purchases are reduced.
8:46
After the establishment of the US-led Red Sea Coalition, Iran formed a maritime militia consisting of 55,000 people.
The boats are equipped with 107mm rockets.
9:10
Rear Admiral Tang Xili, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, said:
We have successfully established a rapid naval mobilization force (Basij) in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Thousands of local small and medium-sized commercial ships, fishing boats and speedboats have been modified and equipped with 107mm rockets and various other weapons.
The newly formed Rapid Naval Volunteer Force is an asymmetric paramilitary force composed of 33,000 ships and 55,000 local fishermen and businessmen volunteers in the Persian Gulf.
The force also included large ships that could sail to Tanzania.
9:32
Spanish Ministry of Defense: Although we are part of the Red Sea Alliance announced by Washington, we do not intend to participate in it.
Spain will not intervene unless NATO or the EU decide to do so.
9:53
U.S. officials said that the U.S. military and its coalition forces have begun preparations for military operations (Prosperity Guardian) aimed at completely destroying the military capabilities of the Houthis to attack ships in the Bab el-Mandab Strait.
10:03
Mohammed Ali Houthis:
We say to the British, French and others involved in this matter: If you want your merchant ships to be safe, you must stop protecting Israeli ships, because we only see this alliance as an alliance at the request of Israel, not Justify your position based on protecting international navigation.
Instead, we recommend that you take the best, simplest, and positive step possible, which is to stop and work to open border crossings for your Palestinian brothers and to have access to water, food, and medicine, which are clearly humanitarian issues, and to demand that the enemy stop targeting Palestine people and stop committing the crimes and massacres that have been committed up to this point in Gaza.
11:12
New details on deal between Hamas and Israel:
Qatari and Egyptian negotiators reported that the agreement to release the hostages was highly questionable because Hamas set two conditions: 1. Negotiations could only continue after a ceasefire; 2. The Israeli Defense Forces would withdraw to areas designated by Hamas. position.
11:31
The United Nations General Assembly passes a resolution on Russia’s fight against the glorification of Nazism: Ukraine and the United States oppose it.
118 countries voted in favor of the resolution, 49 countries opposed and 14 countries abstained. Opponents include the United States, Ukraine, Britain and Germany. Countries including China and Israel voted in favor of the document.
The document recommends that states take appropriate specific measures, "including legislative and educational measures, to prevent the falsification of the history and results of the Second World War and the denial of crimes against humanity and war crimes" in accordance with their international human rights obligations. was committed during World War II. "
The document "strongly condemns" incidents involving the glorification and propaganda of Nazism, such as graffiti and drawings with pro-Nazi content, including on memorials to victims of World War II.
12:14
According to Reuters news, according to the Malaysian Prime Minister: Malaysia has blocked Zim Shipping Company from entering the country’s ports. It is reported that the company is an Israeli international shipping company and one of the world's 20 largest carriers.
Malaysia will no longer accept Israeli-flagged ships. Ships bound for Israel can no longer load cargo at Malaysian ports.
12:23
Israeli entities have announced that they will not participate in the US-led maritime coalition operating in the Red Sea for the time being.
14:27
Israel Walla.com: According to informed sources in Israel and abroad, Israel has notified Qatar that it is preparing for a one-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli prisoners held by Hamas in Gaza.
A statement from Qatar's prime minister said Hamas insisted on stopping the war before any exchange agreement could be reached.
14:44
Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Bakri said: We provide consultation and intellectual assistance to the Yemeni army and will stand with the Yemeni people until the end.
15:15
Latest briefing from the U.S. Institute of War Studies:
Israel has weakened Hamas' North Gaza Brigade, consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its northern clearing campaign to divest from Gaza.
16:19
According to an analysis by Politico: The way the Houthis operate poses a challenge to Western navies, as they are using ultra-expensive equipment to defend against cheap drones.
It is estimated that the Aster 15 surface-to-air missile launched by the French frigate Languedoc costs more than 1 million euros each, while the Iranian-made Shahed drone (which may be used by the Houthis) costs only $20,000 .
17:03
Even as top U.S. military leaders urge Jerusalem to abandon its most intensive fighting operations, Israeli officials remain reluctant.
18:44
According to people familiar with the matter: Today, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff will propose to President Biden several options for military action against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen.
19:02
Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdullahyan met with Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha.
19:45
“NATO has entered the war: NATO members directly operate air defense systems, tactical ballistic missiles and many rocket launch systems in Ukraine,” Sergey Shoigu said.
20:14
Israeli media: A political earthquake is coming. The question is not if it will happen, but when.
20:32
Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy: A revolutionary change in the naval capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun.
They designed ships capable of launching long-range missiles. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy ships will now be equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) and receive command guidance after launch.
20:44
Europe will face a sharp rise in oil prices!The threat from Yemen has affected 8.8 million barrels of oil per day and nearly 380 million tons of daily cargo traffic.
S&P Global Market Intelligence calculates that 21.5% of Europe's refined oil imports pass through the Red Sea, and 13% of its crude oil imports pass through the Red Sea.
20:49
Yemen continued to issue warnings. More than 100 ships were diverted from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and sailed all the way to southern Africa. The US fleet accompanied by Eisenhower was at the entrance of the strait. Therefore, the US naval alliance against Yemen has failed so far.
21:07
According to Bloomberg, the United Arab Emirates is pushing for military action against the Houthis and hopes that the United States will reclassify them as "terrorists."
21:42
Yemen's Supreme Political Council said: The US move is seen as militarizing the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and harming the safety of international navigation. We demand that the US bear full responsibility for everything that results.
22:27
The Houthi Armed Forces Political Bureau stated that they are conducting general mobilization and sending armed personnel to the Gaza Strip.
23:13
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a statement not long ago about continuing to fight Hamas:
We continue the war until the end, until the destruction of Hamas, until victory.
Anyone who thinks we will stop has nothing to do with reality.
We will not stop fighting until we achieve all the goals we have set: to eliminate Hamas, to free the abductees, and to eliminate the threat from Gaza.
23:35
Yemen’s leader stated: Any U.S. military action against our country will be met with a response from us, and we will target U.S. warships, interests, and navigation with our missiles, drones, and military operations.
23:46
Local media news: "The Houthi armed forces launched surface-to-surface missiles and hit two ships in the Red Sea today because the other party refused to respond to the call."
Article source: "The Gift of the Beautiful Fairy" WeChat public account
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
Canadian Dollar: Interest Rate Cuts Won't Be Blown Off Course By Tick Higher in Inflation
The Canadian Dollar rose as an initial reaction to the news that Canadian inflation unexpectedly rose in November, but digging into the data reveals trends remain consistent with an ongoing decline that will allow the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in the first half of 2024.
The Canadian Dollar rose against the Dollar, Pound and Euro after Statistics Canada said CPI inflation rose 3.1% year-on-year in November - unchanged on October but ahead of expectations for a reading of 2.9%.
This was driven by a 0.1% month-on-month increase in inflation - also unchanged on the previous month - that defied expectations for -0.2%.
The Canadian Dollar had been under pressure over the preceding hours owing to comments from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem that 2024 would see interest rate cuts, and the initial reaction to the inflation figures allowed some relief for the currency.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar had been as high as 1.7052 but fell back to 1.7011. The Euro to Canadian Dollar had been as high as 1.4683 before retreating to 1.4646. The Dollar to Canadian Dollar rate fell from 1.3385 to 1.3360.
But Canadian Dollar strength will likely be limited as the report's details show little reason for the Bank of Canada to believe it won't be in a position to cut rates in a matter of months.
Drivers of inflation are becoming more narrowly based than they were earlier in the year, and the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median continued to show softer trends than earlier in the year at 3.5% and 3.4% y/y, respectively. On a 3-month annualised basis, the core measures were softer, at 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
"While readings on a 3-month annualised basis are admittedly volatile, if such a trend were to persist for another few months, it should give the Bank of Canada comfort that headline inflation is on a path back to target, opening the door for interest rate cuts starting in Q2 next year despite the upside surprise in headline inflation today," says Andrew Grantham, an economist at CIBC Bank.
Source: PoundSterlingLive
To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
Will Bitcoin Finally Head to the Moon in 2024?
Bitcoin is ending 2023 on a high after climbing 157 per cent so far this year to about $43,000 – and excitement is building for the digital token for 2024.
Traders expect another strong year for Bitcoin, with price predictions ranging from a conservative $50,000 to the dizzying heights of $100,000 or more.
The "crypto winter" of 2022 is giving way to yet another bout of cryptocurrency spring madness, with talk of a breakthrough year for digital assets. As ever, investors need to keep a cool head to withstand their fear of missing out (Fomo), but many will not succeed.
Bitcoin hit a record high of about $69,000 in November 2021, shortly before inflation and interest rates took off.
Higher borrowing costs have since "burdened" crypto assets as their development is "highly contingent on private investors' capital", says Manuel Villegas, digital assets analyst at Julius Baer.
Higher yields on lower-risk assets such as US Treasuries and money market funds also increased the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrency, which pays no interest, hitting demand.
The cryptocurrency sector was also hit by a string of platform failures and scandals, notably the $32 billion collapse of FTX and arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who was found guilty on seven counts of fraud last month.
The former cryptocurrency poster boy now faces up to 110 years in prison, plus fines and restitution, with further charges in the pipeline.
Mr. Bankman-Fried was not the only platform boss in trouble, with Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance.com, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, pleading guilty and resigning for failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering programme.
Binance has survived but only after the company agreed to pay more than $4 billion to resolve the Justice Department's investigation.
Cryptocurrency remains the wild west of finance, with investors losing a record $685.5 million to hacks and fraud in the third quarter of this year, up 59 per cent on last year, according to security services platform Immunefi.
Yet, as interest rates peak and the US Federal Reserve hints that it will start cutting interest rates next year, investors are returning in droves.
The growing conviction that the fastest and steepest US monetary tightening cycle has come to a close is just one factor driving Bitcoin, Mr. Villegas says.
Another is that investors favour "long-term holder accumulation", buying cryptocurrency and sitting on it rather than selling, shrinking supply.
Investors are also licking their lips in anticipation of two Bitcoin-friendly events that may put a rocket under the price next year.
The first is the long-awaited US regulatory approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that will open the market to private and institutional investors who have been wary of directly buying virtual coins themselves.
At least nine asset management firms have posted applications to run spot ETFs, including 21Shares, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Fidelity, Valkyrie and WisdomTree. The first US Securities and Exchange Commission approval could land as soon as next month.
A bill put forward by US senator Elizabeth Warren to "crack down" on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency has knocked sentiment but a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could change that, says Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at trading platform IG.
"Ultimately, the introduction of Wall Street into the crypto space brings a greater degree of legitimacy."
The second great hope is the latest "halving" event, due in April, when the amount of Bitcoin paid to miners halves, in a preprogrammed move to reduce supply and maintain its scarcity value.
These two coming events have triggered a spate of excited price forecasts for the year ahead.
Ryan Rasmussen, senior cryptocurrency research analyst at Bitwise Asset Management, predicts that Bitcoin will hit a record high of $80,000, as spot Bitcoin ETFs "collectively will be the most successful ETF launch of all time".
"Within five years, we estimate spot Bitcoin ETFs could capture 1 per cent of the $7.2 trillion US ETF market, or $72 billion in assets under management," he says.
As Bitcoin becomes more accessible, Mr. Rasmussen reckons up to one in four financial advisers will allocate it to clients' accounts and he is not the only one predicting big gains.
Bloomberg reckons the price will top $50,000 next year. Standard Chartered predicts it will hit $100,000 by year end, while Coincodex forecasts $109,364.
Cryptocurrency financial services company Matrixport projects Bitcoin will hit $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of 2024 as inflation and interest rates continue to fall.
BitQuant is at the extreme end of the scale, predicting a post-halving price of up to $250,000. Cryptonews.com reckons the price could hit $300,000, but only in 2028.
However, not everyone is so upbeat. Analysts at JP Morgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have adopted a cautious stance, warning that spot Bitcoin ETFs may not necessarily bring new capital to the market.
Spot ETFs have already been approved in Canada and Europe, without sparking an investor frenzy.
It is more likely that money would shift from existing Bitcoin products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Bitcoin futures ETFs and Bitcoin mining companies, JP Morgan says, adding that the halving is predictable and already factored into the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin faces another threat in the shape of a looming US recession, says Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at asset manager VanEck.
"Bitcoin has only experienced one official US recession, from January to April 2020, during which it fell 60 per cent peak-to-trough," he says.
Mr. Sigel believes the damage may partially be offset by an estimated $2.4 billion flowing into spot ETFs, keeping the price above $30,000 in the first quarter of 2024. But it faces another risk in the shape of a "presidential-sized wall of worry".
The US faces a bitter election on November 3 as Donald Trump seeks to win back the White House, while other countries are also having elections, including the UK, India, South Africa, Mexico and many more.
The percentage of the global population voting in legislative and presidential elections will hit a record high of more than 45 per cent in 2024, Mr. Sigel says, which could boost safe-haven inflows.
A victory for Mr. Trump would raise hopes that the SEC's hostile regulatory approach will be dismantled, driving Bitcoin higher, Mr. Sigel says.
So, what should investors do when faced with all the wildly differing predictions? Wise souls will continue to resist the hype and carry on investing in real-world assets.
Yet Bitcoin's latest recovery suggests cryptocurrency is here to stay, and every investor should consider a small portfolio allocation.
For all the excitement about 2024, one thing will not change. The Bitcoin price will do what it likes, and nobody knows what will happen next. The usual advice applies: Approach with extreme caution.
Source: The National News
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Live Update: Dow Gains More, S&P 500 Closing Up
The S&P 500 rose on Tuesday, nearing a record high, as the Federal Reserve's recent changes in interest rate policy boosted stock prices. The broad market index rose 0.59% to 4,768.37. Tuesday's gains put the S&P 500 index about 0.6% from its all-time closing high and about 1% from its intraday high (both set in January 2022).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 251.90 points (0.68%) to 37,557.92.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.66% to 15,003.22.This is the first time since January 2022 that the tech stock index has closed above 15,000 points.Walgreens Boots Alliance was the biggest gainer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with its stock up 4.2%.
Meanwhile, solar stocks Enphase Energy and First Solar were the biggest gainers among the S&P 500, rising about 9% and 4%, respectively.In energy stocks,stocks outperformed, and the S&P 500 sector rose 1.2% as oil prices rose.Occidental Petroleum shares rose 2.3%, while Halliburton and Exxon Mobil shares each rose more than 1%.shares have been trending higher recently, with the market catalyzed last week by the Federal Reserve's hint at the possibility of three interest rate cuts in 2024.
Signs of calming inflation and falling U.S.Treasury yields are also supporting risk assets at a time when stocks are already strong.``The trend of buying stocks is here to stay,'' says Kim Forrest, founder of Boke Capital Partners.``Unless the situation changes on the news, we are likely to move higher day by day.'' All three major averages are rising and on track to end December.
The S&P 500 rose 4.4% this month, ending its longest weekly winning streak since 2017.The Dow and Nasdaq rose 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively.
To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
UK Inflation Set to Rise at Slowest Rate in Over 2 Years
Yesterday saw another positive session for US markets with the Nasdaq 100 and Dow notching new record highs, while the S&P500 continued to close in on the 4,800 level, as the exuberance from last week continued.
European markets underwent a more subdued session notching modest gains while trading in a tight range, just below the record highs posted last week by the DAX and CAC40.
As we continue to wind down into the Christmas break, today's focus will be on the latest inflation numbers from the UK as we look towards a positive European open.
The last few days have been interesting ones particularly if you're a bond market trader, yields falling sharply after Fed chair Jay Powell's comments that the US central bank had discussed the timing of rate cuts next year.
This surprise bombshell had markets re-writing their timelines for when rate cuts might start, however as with anything when it comes to financial markets when central banks start showing a bit of leg, markets always want a bit more, and that's precisely what we've been seeing these past few days.
Because of last week's events markets quickly decided that the Bank of England could be forced to cut rates sooner than originally priced, with markets pricing the prospect that we could see Bailey and Co cut rates by up to 115bps by the end of 2024, as well as cutting before the ECB.
While that would be welcomed by a lot of people that seems unlikely given that on a comparative basis the UK economy is performing slightly better than the EU, particularly in services where inflation is currently still well above 6%, although headline inflation is also much higher.
This is why we had 3 Bank of England policymakers vote for another 25bps rate hike last week, if only to try and keep rate cut expectations in check.
In comments made earlier this week Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent alluded to elevated inflation, along with uncertainty over the UK labour market, which could force the central bank to wait longer before it can establish with certainty whether inflation is on its way back to the banks 2% target.
Uncertainty over the true level of wage growth is also a factor, indicating that to some extent the bank is flying blind when it comes to how quickly inflation is slowing.
These concerns were echoed to some extent by fellow deputy governor Sarah Breeden in comments made yesterday when she expressed concern over persistent wage pressure and said that rates would need to remain high for an extended period until unemployment starts to rise further, or wage growth slows more sharply than expected.
Against that backdrop today's UK CPI inflation numbers for November will be closely scrutinised for further evidence of slowing prices.
October brought some welcome relief for beleaguered UK consumers as the effects of the energy price cap from a year before fell out of the annual numbers, as headline CPI fell to 4.6% from September's 6.7%.
Since March of this year headline CPI in the UK has more than halved, slowing from 10.1%, with today's November numbers expected to slow to 4.3%, helped by the sharp decline we've seen in petrol prices over the past few weeks.
The Bank of England's bigger problem, apart from wage growth which is above 7%, is services CPI which is expected to come in unchanged at 6.6%, but also core CPI which is expected to slow to 5.6%.
If we fall short in either of these two latter numbers we could see a reaction in gilt markets, however it is also worth keeping an eye on PPI inflation where we've been in deflation since July on the year-on-year numbers.
At some point this will start to trickle down into the headline numbers sometime in the new year, energy prices allowing, and could see inflation quickly fall towards 3% in Q1 of 2024.
There is a silver lining to all this of course is that wages are now rising faster than headline inflation which in turn is helping to ameliorate some of the worst effects of the last 2 years and will continue to do so over the next few months if unemployment doesn't start rising sharply.
This would suggest that headline inflation has the potential to slow further in the coming months and could fall towards 4% by the start of next year.
EUR/USD – still feels like we could see a move higher, but we need to see a move above the recent peaks at 1.1015/20. A break above 1.1030 has the potential to target the July peaks at 1.1275. While below 1.1020 we remain susceptible to pullbacks towards 1.0830 and the 200-day SMA.
GBP/USD – while above the 200-day SMA at 1.2520 the pound feels like it wants to go higher, but we need to crack above the 1.2800 to offer hope of that. We also have support at the 1.2590 area.
EUR/GBP – continues to struggle below the 100-day SMA at 0.8640, with a break targeting the 0.8700 area. Support at the 0.8570/80 area. A move below 0.8580 targets 0.8520.
USD/JPY – having squeezed back above the 200-day SMA we could move up to 146.00 in the short term before running out of steam. While below 146.00 the bias remains for a move below 140.00.
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
Canadian Dollar Lags on Macklem's Rate Cut Talk
The Canadian Dollar is a laggard on global foreign exchange markets after the head of Canada's central bank openly discussed interest rate cuts for the first time.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in an interview on Monday that he expects rates to be cut next year.
Markets are already priced for such an eventuality, but these bets were reinforced by Macklem's acknowledgement, which was reflected in a weaker CAD.
"The Canadian dollar is lagging other pro-cyclical currencies at the start of this week after Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a TV interview yesterday that he expects rates to be cut next year. This is a surprise statement by Macklem," says Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING.
Pesole notes that only two weeks ago Macklem reiterated the hawkish bias in the BoC policy statement.
This suggests the Bank of Canada's policy pivot has been realised.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar rose to 1.67 in the hours following the developments, but it will take a great deal more work to invalidate the short-term downtrend, which has been running for three weeks now.
The Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (USD/CAD) was meanwhile unable to make any meaningful gains and arrest its short-term downtrend, quoting at 1.3380 at the time of writing.
The Bank of Canada's pivot might not surprise some as the Federal Reserve announced a pivot at last week's policy update, confirming Canadian policy will move in lockstep with the U.S. over the coming months.
This explains why the Canadian Dollar's losses are greater against the European currencies than against the Dollar.
Pesole says offering a timeline for rate cuts appears inconsistent with the BoC's claim that it "remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed" and likely validates the market’s pricing for 100bp of easing next year.
"Despite our view of a dollar decline and outperformance of pro-cyclical currencies next year, we expect the Canadian dollar to underperform other commodity currencies as the BoC cuts rates aggressively (we estimate 150bp in 2024) on a grim economic outlook and as the loonie suffers from its correlation with US economic data," says Pesole.
Source: PoundSterlingLive
To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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