Nyse Order Imbalance 142677.0 Shares On Buy Side

Energy stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index decreasing 0.3% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) up 0.4%.

The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index dropped 1.8%, while the Dow Jones US Utilities index climbed 2.1%

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.5% to $70.55 a barrel while the global benchmark Brent crude contract dropped 2.1% to $74.05 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell about 0.7% to $2.67 per 1 million BTU.

In corporate news, Energy Vault shares jumped 9% after the company said Friday it plans to deploy a 57 megawatt Battery Energy Storage System in Scurry County, Texas, and has signed a 10-year offtake agreement with Gridmatic.

EOG Resources shares popped 6%. The company reported late Thursday Q3 adjusted earnings and revenue that came in ahead of analyst forecasts.

Civitas Resources shares were down 0.5% in recent Friday trading, a day after the company reported Q3 adjusted earnings and revenue that missed analysts' estimates.

Icahn Enterprises said Friday that it has sent a proposal to CVR Energy's board to acquire additional shares of the petroleum refining company in a tender offer. Icahn shares fell 6.6% and CVR jumped 12%.

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 8, 2024 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses Civitas Resources CIVI, Northern Oil and Gas NOG, California Resources CRC and Amplify Energy AMPY.

Industry: U.S. Oil & Gas - E&P

Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2365990/a-closer-look-at-the-us-upstream-oil-gas-industry

The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry faces growing headwinds. With potential Republican-led policies encouraging increased domestic production, U.S. output could see a rise, expanding supply and likely softening oil prices. Additionally, China's slowing oil demand, despite government stimulus efforts, may contribute to weaker global prices, especially if OPEC+ production cuts don't offset the lagging demand.

Further, rising renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption continue to challenge long-term oil consumption, with countries like China advancing electrification efforts, leading to an earlier-than-expected peak in its oil imports. However, Middle East tensions could push prices up quickly if conflicts threaten critical supply routes. Amid these dynamics, select companies like Civitas Resources, Northern Oil and Gas, California Resources and Amplify Energy stand out, offering solid fundamentals and strategic positioning.

About the Industry

The Zacks Oil and Gas - US E&P industry consists of companies primarily based in the domestic market, focused on the exploration and production (E&P) of oil and natural gas. These firms find hydrocarbon reservoirs, drill oil and gas wells, and produce and sell these materials to be refined later into products such as gasoline, fuel oil, distillate, etc. The economics of oil and gas supply and demand are the fundamental drivers of this industry.

In particular, a producer's cash flow is primarily determined by the realized commodity prices. In fact, all E&P companies' results are vulnerable to historically volatile prices in the energy markets. A change in realizations affects their returns and causes them to alter their production growth rates. The E&P operators are also exposed to exploration risks where drilling results are comparatively uncertain.

4 Key Trends to Watch in the Oil and Gas - US E&P Industry

Potential Increase in U.S. Oil Production: With the U.S. election results favoring a Republican administration, policies supporting increased hydrocarbon production may be enacted. Such an approach could lead to a significant rise in U.S. oil output, adding to global supply and putting downward pressure on oil prices. Increased domestic production would reduce dependency on foreign oil, potentially leading to a price reduction as supply levels rise.

Impact of Weakening Chinese Consumption: China's demand for crude oil remains a key determinant in global oil prices. Although government stimulus measures aim to boost economic growth, recent signs of slower demand growth from China have prompted OPEC+ production cuts. If demand from China does not recover as expected, global oil prices could remain subdued due to a combination of ample supply and restrained demand.

Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East: Escalating conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed forces could disrupt oil supplies if it spreads to critical areas like the Persian Gulf or Straits of Hormuz. Such disruptions could spark sharp price spikes due to potential threats to Iran's oil production or logistical chokepoints. Any intensification of hostilities would heighten supply fears, driving oil prices upward amid increased volatility.

Growing Renewables and EVs Threaten Oil Demand: The global shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) presents a long-term challenge for oil demand. While renewable infrastructure growth is gradual, advancing technology and rising EV use are expected to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, potentially lowering oil prices. In China, rapid electrification is driving oil demand to peak earlier, with imports at 11.4 million barrels per day in 2023 projected to plateau by 2026 and then decline, furthering the global supply surplus and pressuring prices downward.

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bearish Outlook

The Zacks Oil and Gas - US E&P industry is a 32-stock group within the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #237, which places it in the bottom 6% of more than 250 Zacks industries.

The group's Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates challenging near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry's position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are becoming pessimistic about this group's earnings growth potential. While the industry's earnings estimates for 2024 have gone down 27.7% in the past year, the same for 2025 have fallen 26.5% over the same timeframe.

Despite the dim near-term prospects of the industry, we will present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio. But it's worth taking a look at the industry's shareholder returns and current valuation first.

Industry Underperforms S&P 500 & Sector

The Zacks Oil and Gas - US E&P industry has fared worse than the Zacks S&P 500 composite as well as the broader Zacks Oil – Energy sector over the past year.

The industry has moved down 1.8% over this period compared with the broader sector's increase of 5.3%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained 32.2%.

Industry's Current Valuation

Since oil and gas companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization) ratio. This is because the valuation metric takes into account not just equity but also the level of debt. For capital-intensive companies, EV/EBITDA is a better valuation metric because it is not influenced by changing capital structures and ignores the effect of noncash expenses.

On the basis of the trailing 12-month enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), the industry is currently trading at 5.99X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.30X. It is, however, above the sector's trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 3.35X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 10.81X, as low as 3.29X, with a median of 5.99X.

4 Stocks to Consider

Civitas Resources: Based in Denver, Civitas Resources focuses on the DJ Basin in Colorado and the Permian Basin across Texas and New Mexico. With strong well returns and a valuable midstream component, Civitas is positioned for growth. The company has become a leading consolidator in the DJ Basin and offers substantial returns to shareholders, with a balanced production mix of 37% oil, 34% NGLs, and 29% natural gas.

The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Civitas Resources indicates 53.1% year-over-year revenue growth. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the oil and natural gas producer has a market capitalization of $5 billion. CIVI's shares have lost 20.7% in a year.

Northern Oil and Gas: Northern Oil and Gas' core operations are focused on three leading basins of the United States — the Williston, Permian and the Appalachian. The upstream operator employs a unique nonoperating business model, which helps it to keep costs down and increase free cash flow.

Carrying a Zacks Rank #3, the 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for NOG indicates 18.3% year-over-year revenue growth. Northern Oil and Gas delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 13% on average. The company's shares have gone up 15.1% in a year.

California Resources: It is a California-based independent oil producer with a strong focus on conventional, shallow oilfields, producing around 60% oil. Alongside its core E&P operations, CRC is expanding into carbon capture and storage. The company actively partners with CO2 emitters to permanently sequester CO2 in its depleted reservoirs, positioning itself as both an energy and carbon management leader in the state.

California Resources' expected EPS growth rate for three to five years is currently 11.8%, which compares favorably with the industry's growth rate of 8.3%. CRC delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 13.1% on average. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company's shares have gained 13.4% in a year.

Amplify Energy: The Houston, TX-based operator has a strong presence in Oklahoma, Southern California and Texas, and has stakes such as Bairoil in the Rocky Mountains. Amplify Energy's diversified operations — spread over five U.S. basins — mitigates pricing and operational disruptions, while its long-life, long-production assets generate sustainable cash flows.

The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amplify Energy indicates 3.1% year-over-year revenue growth. With a Zacks Rank of 3, the oil and natural gas producer has a market capitalization of $267.5 million. AMPY's shares have increased 19.6% in a year.

Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?

Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.

Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.

See Stocks Free >>

Join us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ZacksInvestmentResearch/

Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.

Media Contact

Zacks Investment Research

800-767-3771 ext. 9339

support@zacks.com

https://www.zacks.com

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Zacks Investment Research

Civitas Resources (CIVI) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.86 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.56 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 6.99%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas company would post earnings of $2.93 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.06, delivering a surprise of -29.69%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Civitas, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $1.27 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.98%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.04 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Civitas shares have lost about 21.1% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 24.3%.

What's Next for Civitas?

While Civitas has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Civitas: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.28 on $1.37 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $8.29 on $5.33 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the bottom 6% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the broader Zacks Oils-Energy sector, Suncor Energy (SU), has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024. The results are expected to be released on November 12.

This energy company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.88 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -22.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 21.2% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.

Suncor Energy's revenues are expected to be $8.57 billion, down 9% from the year-ago quarter.

Zacks Investment Research