Oil Climbs on Geopolitical Concerns — Market Talk

Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content rose toward $102 per tonne, halting a recent decline amid renewed hopes for a rebound in demand from top consumer China.

The city of Guangzhou recently expanded its program to purchase older apartments, which could stimulate demand for construction materials, including iron ore.

Meanwhile, China’s central bank kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, providing no new signals that would significantly impact demand in the world’s largest metals consumer.

On the supply side, reports of higher iron ore shipments from major producers such as Australia, along with rising stockpiles at Chinese ports, continued to put downward pressure on prices.

Silver prices rose above $31.20 per ounce on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session as heightened geopolitical tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals.

On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a series of UK-made missiles into Russia, following a previous strike with US-made missiles.

Additionally, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, further escalating geopolitical uncertainties.

On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook offered conflicting views on inflation and the future path for interest rate cuts in separate statements on Wednesday.

In China, the PBOC kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, offering no new signals that could affect demand in the world’s largest consumer of metals.

TTF Gas increased to a 51-week high of 47.44 EUR/MWh.

Over the past 4 weeks, Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF gained 15.2%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.06%.

Copper futures held steady at around $4.14 per pound on Thursday, pausing their recent upward movement as the dollar rebounded.

The dollar's strength was fueled by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, which in turn may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut borrowing costs.

In China, the People's Bank of China kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, offering no new signals that could impact demand in the world’s largest copper consumer.

Meanwhile, copper spot treatment and refining charges in China showed signs of improvement as smelters scaled back production following several years of rapid expansion.

Copper inventories in the country have also been declining, currently sitting below August levels with seven days' worth of supply readily available.

Malaysian palm oil futures plunged near 3.0% to below MYR 4,700 per tonne, slipping for the second session to a 3-week low amid mounting concerns over sluggish exports.

Cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri noted Malaysia's palm oil shipments from Nov. 1–20 shrank 1.38% from the same period in Oct.

Meanwhile, Malaysia's move to raise its Dec. export tax on crude palm oil to 10% and increase the indicative price to MYR 4,471.39 could further weigh on foreign demand.

Adding to the bearish mood, US soybean futures slumped, on expectations of a plentiful South American soy harvest this year and uncertainty over demand for soy-based biodiesel fuel.

Further, worries escalated surrounding demand from major buyers like India and China.

As winter nears, consumers in these countries often shift to alternative edible oils better suited for cold weather.

Partially cushioning the fall were remarks from Malaysian Palm Oil Board that prices would remain supported by tight supply and higher domestic consumption.