Oil Falls On Demand Growth Concerns, Robust Dollar

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices fell on Friday on worries about demand growth in 2025, especially in top crude importer China, putting global oil benchmarks on track to end the week down nearly 3%.

SINGAPORE (Dec 20): Oil prices fell on Friday on worries about demand growth in 2025, especially in top crude importer China, putting global oil benchmarks on track to end the week down nearly 3%.

Brent crude futures fell by 41 cents, or 0.56%, to US$72.47 a barrel by 0420 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.56%, to US$68.99 per barrel.

Chinese state-owned refiner Sinopec said in its annual energy outlook, released on Thursday, that China's crude imports could peak as soon as 2025 and the country's oil consumption would peak by 2027 as diesel and gasoline demand weaken.

"Benchmark crude prices are in a prolonged consolidation phase as the market head towards the year end weighed by uncertainty in oil demand growth," said Emril Jamil, senior research specialist at LSEG.

He added that Opec+ would require supply discipline to perk up prices and soothe jittery market nerves over continuous revisions of its demand growth outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called Opec+, recently cut its growth forecast for 2024 global oil demand for a fifth straight month.

Meanwhile, the dollar's climb to a two-year high also weighed on oil prices, after the Federal Reserve flagged it would be cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025.

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, while a slower pace of rate cuts could dampen economic growth and trim oil demand.

JPMorgan sees the oil market moving from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, as the bank forecasts non-Opec+ growth increasing by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 and Opec output remaining at current levels.

In a move that could pare supply, G7 countries are considering ways to tighten the price cap on Russian oil, such as with an outright ban or by lowering the price threshold, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

Russia has evaded the US$60 per barrel cap imposed in 2022 using its "shadow fleet" of ships, which the EU and Britain have targeted with further sanctions in recent days.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Pepperstone

Economic

WHERE WE STAND

The post-FOMC yo-yo price action persisted yesterday, as participants continued to digest Powell & Co’s hawkish 25bp cut on Wednesday, though a decent chunk of the market moves seen during the decision itself pared as yesterday progressed.

As so often tends to be the case, markets had shifted to a hawkish extreme amid Powell’s remarks, before then gradually edging back from said extreme as the dust settled, and calmer heads prevailed, yesterday.

This was perhaps most evident in the FX space, where the greenback finding sellers against most G10 peers, seeing the DXY slide back under the 108 handle intraday, while the EUR managed to reclaim $1.04 intraday. Some profit taking in long USD positions isn’t especially surprising here, given the rapid nature of yesterday’s rally, though I, personally, remain a dollar bull, and a firm believer in the case for ‘US exceptionalism’.

We can revisit those in 12 months’ time and see how accurate they prove to be, or whether a ‘black swan’ event throws a spanner in the works.

Back to yesterday, and there were plenty of catalysts for participants to digest.

A dovish hold from the BoJ, with Governor Ueda seemingly in no hurry to deliver another 25bp hike, sparked a sizeable sell-off in the JPY, as USD/JPY climbed north of the 157 handle, with spot briefly trading to its highest since mid-July. The window for the BoJ to hike further is shutting rather rapidly, as policy normalisation progresses elsewhere in G10. Nevertheless, Governor Ueda will be speaking again on Christmas Day (I wish I was joking!), which may perhaps offer greater clarity on the conditions required to unlock another rate hike. Still, as the BoJ turn more dovish, just as Fed Chair Powell releases his inner hawk, further upside in USD/JPY seems plausible.

Thursday also brought the final policy decision of the year from the ‘Old Lady’, with the BoE standing pat, as expected, maintaining Bank Rate at 4.75%. The vote split, though, was considerably tighter than expected, with three of the 9-member MPC (Dhingra, Taylor, and Ramsden) dissenting in favour of a 25bp cut. The quid was, predictably, sold on the back of the dovish vote split, though cable did just about manage to cling onto the $1.26 handle.

My BoE base case remains that 25bp cuts are delivered once per quarter next year, with the next such cut coming in February. Risks to this view, though, are tilted to a more dovish outcome, amid increasing signs of overall economic momentum stalling, and with risks to the labour market tilted to the downside, amid the upcoming changes to National Insurance. Were a greater degree of labour market slack to dramatically reduce overall demand, thus leading to an easing in stubborn services inflation, this could lead to a faster pace of normalisation from the BoE, though firm hints in this direction are unlikely until the second quarter, at the earliest.

We also heard from the Riksbank and the Norges Bank, yesterday, neither of whom delivered any surprises. The Riksbank duly delivered a 25bp cut, as well as gain flagging the likelihood that another such cut will be delivered in the first half of next year. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank held rates steady at 4.50%, while repeating that this cycle’s first cut will most likely come in Q1 25.

LOOK AHEAD

We’ve made it! The final day of the final full working week of 2024 is finally upon us!

A busy-ish economic calendar awaits. Here in the UK, this morning brings the latest retail sales report, with sales set to have risen by 0.5% MoM in November. However, the ONS’ reference period for the figure likely fell before the majority of ‘Black Friday’ discounting begun, which may pose some downside risk to consensus expectations. The latest public sector borrowing figures are also due, and will be of particular interest given the perilous fiscal backdrop, especially after the 10-year Gilt yield rose to a fresh post-Budget high north of 4.60% yesterday.

Elsewhere, the stateside calendar sees the latest PCE inflation figures scheduled. Chair Powell, helpfully, informed us at Wednesday’s press conference that headline PCE is set to have risen by 2.5% YoY in November, with the core print having risen 2.8% YoY. Hence, the figures are unlikely to spring much by way of a surprise. The same can be said of the final UMich consumer sentiment print, which is seen unrevised at 74.0.

Once that’s out of the way, we can all go to the pub. A merry Christmas to all!

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IC Markets

Economic

Markets Calm After Fed Storm – Nasdaq off 0.1%

US stock markets had a bit of a breather yesterday after Wednesday’s volatile post-Fed moves. All three major indices closed close to flat: the Dow added 0.04%, the S&P lost 0.09%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. The US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield losing 3.8 basis points to move back to 4.317%, while the 10-year benchmark moved 4.8 basis points higher to 4.562%. The dollar continued to push higher, although much slower than its post-Fed surge, with the DXY gaining 0.27% to close at 108.40. Oil prices fell again as future demand concerns continued to weigh, with Brent down 0.95% to $72.69 and WTI down 0.91% to $69.38. Gold had a lively day as well, ultimately recovering a small amount of the previous day’s loss, closing up 0.24% at $2,593.05.

Cable to Weaken After Dovish Bank of England

It has been a near-perfect storm for Cable bears over the last few trading sessions as both associated central banks have pushed the major currency pair lower. Cable was on the back foot into yesterday’s Bank of England rate call after the Fed produced a hawkish cut the previous day. When the MPC held rates as expected, but the rate vote showed that 3 members (not the expected 2) had pushed for a cut, we saw a further extension of the move south. The market is now pricing in 55 basis points worth of cuts next year, compared to 45 basis points before the decision, and traders will be looking for levels to sell in the coming days. Cable has found some support near the November low, but a break lower now opens the way for a move to challenge the annual low at 1.2296 before the end of the year.

Another Busy Calendar Day to See Out the Week

It’s another full calendar day today to close out the week, with macroeconomic events scheduled across all three trading sessions. Chinese markets are in focus in the Asian session, with the key Loan Prime Rates updates scheduled for midway through the day, with investors again hoping for some stimulus for the world’s second-largest economy. Another day and another data release from the UK once Europe comes into play, with Retail Sales numbers due out early in the session. The expectation is for a 0.5% increase in the month-on-month data, and a miss here could see Cable drop hard. The US day kicks off with focus north of the border on Canadian Retail Sales, but US Core PCE data is set to dominate overall market sentiment as we move into the final trading session of a volatile week.

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Alex

Economic

Forex

The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers on Friday after depreciating to an all-time low of 85.12 in the previous session. The decline in crude oil prices might help limit the local currency’s losses as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could intervene in the market to prevent excess volatility.However, a hawkish rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could spark the US Dollar (USD) broadly and exert some selling pressure on emerging market currencies, including the INR. Looking ahead, traders will focus on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which is due later on Friday. Also, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December will be released.

Indian Rupee rebounds amid multiple challenges

"We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on global equities following a hawkish Fed and a strong dollar. Concerns over a slowdown in the economy may further weigh on the rupee," said Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

India's foreign exchange reserves fell in nine out of the past 10 weeks, hitting a multi-month low. The reserves had been falling ever since reserves touched an all-time high of USD 704.89 billion in September, and now last week the forex stood at USD 654.857 billion, according to the RBI data.

The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 3.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (GDP), compared to a previous projection of 2.8%, the third estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday.

The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the US declined to 220,000 in the week ending December 14, compared to the previous week's print of 242,000, and came in above the market consensus of 230,000.

USD/INR maintains a strong uptrend in the longer term

The Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The constructive outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact on the daily chart as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is over the midline near 70.95, suggesting an overbought condition. This means that additional consolidation should not be ruled out before positioning for any short-term USD/INR appreciation.The ascending trend channel at 85.20 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. A decisive break above this level could see a rally to 85.50.On the flip side, the first downside target is seen at 84.86, the lower boundary of the trend channel. A breach of this level could pave the way to 84.16, the 100-day EMA.

Indian Rupee FAQs

What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee?

The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.

What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee?

Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.

How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee?

Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

Source: FXSTREET

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

Economic

[Quick Facts]

1. There may be three more hawkish FOMC members in 2025.

2. Cautionary notice: $6.5 trillion options expiring.

3. Russia agrees a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine, but Kyiv refuses.

4. BoJ maintains rates unchanged for the third straight time.

5. The US government shutdown looms.

[News Details]

There may be three more hawkish FOMC members in 2025

In 2025, the annual changes to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting members may have an impact on the rate-cut process. The incoming members are expected to be more hawkish.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Chair Harker will leave the FOMC, to be succeeded by Chicago Federal Reserve Chair Goolsbee, who believes that the policy interest rate needs to be significantly lowered next year, compared to Harker's dovish stance. Two new members – St. Louis Federal Reserve Chair Muehlbaum and Kansas City Federal Reserve Chair Schmid – will replace Atlanta Federal Reserve Chair Bostick and San Francisco Vice Chair Daly, who are considered to be in the middle ground.

Cautionary notice: $6.5 trillion options expiring

As investors consider the Fed's intention to slow down rate cuts, the historically turbulent Friday options expiration marks the final risk factor before the end of the year. On Friday, $6.5 trillion worth of individual, index, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) options will expire, the largest of the year, second only to last year's, and among the highest in history, though slightly lower than a year ago. Given the Fed's third consecutive rate cut on Wednesday and its suggestion of preparing to slow down rate cuts, this timing is particularly unusual. In such circumstances, stock volume often spikes, and as options expire or traders establish new positions, stock price fluctuations are common.

Russia agrees a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine, but Kyiv refuses

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during a live broadcast that Russia had agreed to temporary ceasefires with Ukraine at least three times, but Kyiv refused. Putin pointed out that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban had suggested a Christmas ceasefire, stating that "they won't do much in two or three days." Putin said that "Russia agreed to at least three such short-term ceasefires." Putin also noted that Turkish President Erdogan had made similar mediation proposals to Russian leaders, but after Putin's agreement, "Ukraine's leaders announced: no negotiations, no ceasefire."

BoJ maintains rates unchanged for the third straight time

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, marking the third consecutive time it has deferred raising rates since hiking them in late July. According to the policy statement, there remains considerable uncertainty about the outlook for both the Japanese economy and prices. The central bank will keep a close watch on exchange rates, market developments, and their implications for the domestic economy and prices.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda remarked at a press conference that, considering numerous uncertainties, the central bank decided against hastening further rate hikes and will continue monitoring the effects of U.S. economic policies on global and specifically Japanese economies, assessing wage growth sustainability, and observing price dynamics.

Although the BoJ's slower approach to tightening monetary policy is aligned with market forecasts, in reality, various indicators provide ample justification for a rate hike this month.

Firstly, core inflation in Japan is gradually increasing. Additionally, with the advancement of corporate investment plans and successful progress in annual wage negotiations, the Japanese economy is moving toward a virtuous cycle linking wages and prices. Concurrently, the BoJ has persistently sent hawkish signals, indicating that if the economy performs according to projections, it will raise interest rates. Moreover, the BoJ claimed that past unconventional easing measures were insufficient to stabilize inflation at 2%.

At present, the BoJ appears to consider 4 factors: first, whether Japan's economic momentum has established a solid foundation; second, it cannot accurately gauge if the current favorable performance stems from advantages provided by a weak yen and low-interest rates or is a result of reduced deflationary expectations post-Japan's interest rate hike; third, fearing a recurrence of severe market fluctuations akin to those seen when rates were last increased; fourth, concern arises from the 'Trump 2.0' policy uncertainties, as the outcomes of tariffs imposed by Trump on Japanese prices remain unknown.

The US government shutdown looms

A Republican funding bill supported by US President-elect Donald Trump was voted down in the House of Representatives on Thursday by 174 to 235. The bill was hastily crafted after Trump and billionaire Elon Musk undermined a previous bipartisan agreement. Although the bill received Trump's support, 38 Republicans voted against it, while all other Democrats except three voted against it.

Under Trump's urging, the revised bill would also suspend the debt ceiling for two years, making it easier to pass his promised massive tax cuts and pave the way for the federal government's debt to continue rising.

Even if the bill passes in the House, it has little chance of passing in the Senate, which is currently controlled by the Democratic Party. The White House states that Democratic President Joe Biden does not support the bill.

Government funding will expire at midnight on Friday. If Congress fails to extend this deadline, the US government will begin a partial shutdown, with border enforcement to national parks funding being interrupted.

One of the labor department agencies that would be completely closed if the shutdown continues until inauguration day is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If the closure continues until the inauguration day, it may delay monthly reports on employment and job vacancies, inflation indexes, and import data. Policymakers and investors who rely on data will have to seek third parties to fill the gap in economic health.

[Today's Day]

UTC+8 21:30 US PCE (Nov)

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Owen Li

Economic

Central Bank

While the Federal Reserve is less dovish now, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is “still at the same trajectory as before” on monetary easing, Remolona said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s David Ingles and Annabelle Droulers.

“We ourselves are neither more dovish nor less dovish,” the central bank chief said. Core inflation will likely ease next year, he added, supporting the case to further ease the policy rate which Remolona described as “still somewhat restrictive.”

The Philippine peso gained on Friday after closing at the record low of 59 to the greenback the day before. The nation’s benchmark stock index inched higher, bucking losses in the region.

The BSP capped off the year with a third quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, as inflation remained on target and economic growth slowed. It also signaled more rate cuts next year at a measured pace.

At the same time, the BSP flagged potential price risks from geopolitical developments, as the world contends with uncertainties over incoming US President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

Trump’s win has also triggered a resurgence in the US dollar, causing currencies around the world to slump. The BSP has been “more active than usual, but not that active” in the foreign exchange market, Remolona said Friday.

The central bank chief also said that monetary authorities are watching the peso “very closely” to ensure that its weakness won’t fan inflation in the Southeast Asian nation that imports oil and rice needs.

Sources：Bloomberg

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Cohen

Economic

(Dec 20): France’s debt agency kept its issuance plans for 2025 unchanged from an initial target as it awaits a new budget following the ouster of the government earlier this month.

Agence France Tresor, or AFT, said it will sell €300 billion ($312 billion) in government bonds next year, net of buybacks. That’s in line with the forecast in the original plan announced in October, following €285 billion of sales this year.

“If this amount has to be changed later in the year, we will do so and communicate to investors,” AFT Chief Executive Antoine Deruennes said.

France is in political and fiscal tumult after leftist and far-right lawmakers united to topple the government of Michel Barnier over his fiscal plans. The former prime minister planned to narrow the budget deficit to 5% of economic output in 2025 from 6.1% this year through €60 billion of tax increases and spending cuts.

President Emmanuel Macron last week appointed Francois Bayrou to succeed Barnier, but the new premier still has not picked a cabinet to attempt to pass a new budget. In the meantime, France will rely on emergency legislation from January that rolls over the same taxes as last year, allows the government to borrow money and issue spending decrees.

“The special law authorizes the AFT to continue to carry out all the cash and debt operations to ensure the financial continuity of the state,” Deruennes said.

While Bayrou has not detailed his policy priorities, his government may have to make concessions on taxation and expenditure that would swell the deficit to be financed by debt issuance. Moreover, France’s economic prospects have deteriorated sharply amid the political uncertainty, making financial objectives harder to reach.

The political and fiscal uncertainty has sent tremors through French debt markets since Macron called snap elections in June, as investors demanded higher compensation given doubts over the country’s ability to tackle its debt mountain.

The gap between French and German 10-year yields, a proxy for French bond risk, is trading around 81 basis points, nearly double where it was in the first half of the year. The gap hit a peak of 90 basis points in late November, the widest since 2012.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Oil Falls On Demand Growth Concerns, Robust Dollar

Source: Theedgemarkets

The Last ‘Proper’ Trading Day Of The Year

WHERE WE STAND

LOOK AHEAD

General Market Analysis – 20/12/24

Markets Calm After Fed Storm – Nasdaq off 0.1%

Cable to Weaken After Dovish Bank of England

Another Busy Calendar Day to See Out the Week

USD/INR Softens Ahead Of US Core PCE Release

Indian Rupee rebounds amid multiple challenges

USD/INR maintains a strong uptrend in the longer term

Indian Rupee FAQs

Source: FXSTREET

December 20th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Day]

Philippines May Open 2025 With Rate Cut, Central Banker Says

Sources：Bloomberg

France To Push Ahead With €300 Billion Bond Plan Without Budget

Source: Theedgemarkets

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