Oil Headed For Weekly Gain Amid New Us Sanctions On Russia

Economic

Summary:

Oil prices edged higher on Friday and were headed for a weekly gain on supply concerns, as the US imposes new sanctions on Russia’s energy industry amid the war with Ukraine.

Oil prices are on the rise “helped by a cold weather fanning demand, the fall in US inventories and multiple risks to shipments”, said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.

“In addition to the curbs against Russia, traders are concerned the incoming [Donald] Trump administration may both tighten sanctions against Iran and impose trade levies that disrupt oil flows or risk drawing retaliatory measures,” he added.

Last week, the US and UK issued sanctions against Russia's energy industry, intensifying pressure on Moscow as the war in Ukraine nears its fourth year. The US sanctions name Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, both major players in the Russian oil industry.

The measures also take aim at oil-carrying vessels – many of which are part of the “shadow fleet” engaged in the illegal trade of Russian oil – as well as Russia-based oilfield service providers, energy officials and “opaque traders”, according to a statement from the US Department of the Treasury.

Falling US oil stock and continued cold weather in the US and Europe is also supporting oil prices. For the week ending January 10, US commercial crude oil inventories decreases by 2 million barrels from the previous week, the latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows. At 412.7 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 6 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Traders are also keeping a close eye on Mr Trump's incoming administration and what his polices are going to be in relation to Iran and trade. During his previous term in the White House, Mr Trump exerted maximum pressure on Iran to limit its exports and reduce revenue in response to its nuclear programme.

"Donald Trump’s tariff threats and plans to jolt the energy space with further sanctions against oil-producing countries like Iran, Russia and Venezuela threaten to maintain the upside pressure in oil prices this year," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

"Although Trump explicitly wants to finish with the war in Ukraine, members of his new team say that they support further sanctions against Russian oil giants. On top, Trump will tighten his grip on Iran against its nuclear work and punish Venezuela for its anti-democratic turn."

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

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ACY

Economic

The NFP Data: A Game-Changer

The NFP report revealed that*the US economy added 250,000 jobs in December, well above the expected 164,000. The unemployment rate also dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, signalling a robust labor market. These figures are crucial because they suggest increased consumer spending power, which could keep inflation elevated for longer than anticipated.

Data Points to Watch:

US Dollar Strength：The dollar extended its bullish trend, bolstered by rising 10-year Treasury yields, which are now above 4.7%.

Currency Weakness: The pound broke through key weekly support, with the euro and Aussie dollar following similar downward paths.

Stock Market Sell-Off: Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are showing lower tops and bottoms, signalling potential overvaluation and deeper corrections ahead.

Gold in Focus: Gold, while range-bound, is inching toward the upper end of its range as traders hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.

Inflation and Interest Rates: The Looming Threat

One of the biggest takeaways from the NFP report is its implications for inflation. With more people employed and earning, consumer spending could keep inflationary pressures alive. This could force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer, dashing hopes for the rate cuts that the market had priced in.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Economic

Major Currency Performance by Region in 2024

This graphic, created in partnership with OANDA, illustrates the 2024 performance of the most-traded currencies by region, offering an overall health check on some of the world’s most powerful currencies.

What is the Most-Traded Currency by Region?

The most-traded currency across North America—and the world—is, of course, the U.S. dollar (USD). According to the BIS, the USD has an average daily trading volume of $6.64 trillion. The euro takes the top spot in Europe, with a daily trading volume of $2.29 trillion.

The other top regional currencies are the Japanese yen (East Asia & Pacific), the Mexican peso (Latin America & Caribbean), the Indian rupee (South Asia), the UAE dirham (Middle East & North Africa), and the South African rand (Sub-Saharan Africa).

Which Currencies Gained Ground in 2024?

Most major currencies took a beating throughout the year, with only the USD finishing in the green.

The USD was the top-performing currency on our list, gaining 6.7%. The resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of global uncertainty and the more stable inflationary environment contributed to the currency’s relative success. In fact, the USD is now trading near an all-time high.

Major Currency Performance by Region in 2024_1

The UAE dirham, which is closely linked to oil prices, finished flat in 2024 in line with the commodity.

Which Currencies Lost Ground in 2024?

The other currencies on our list fell versus the USD.

The Mexican peso experienced the sharpest decline, plummeting 18.2% on the year, driven by internal political turmoil and the impact of Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory. Similarly, the Japanese yen fell by 10.0%, pressured by uncertainty surrounding upcoming Japanese elections, robust U.S. economic growth indicators, and the significant interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. The euro and the Indian rupee also finished in the red.

Opportunities in Foreign Exchange Trading

The U.S. economy and its currency demonstrated surprising resilience throughout the year, offering potential opportunities for investors in 2025. With the current trajectory, strategies such as short-long positions against weaker currencies, including the Mexican peso and Japanese yen, may warrant closer evaluation.

Source：visualcapitalist

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Justin

Commodity

Indian Oil Corp, the state major, is buying Middle Eastern and African crude to replace Russian volumes affected by U.S. sanctions, including a cargo of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, which IOC does not normally buy, Reuters has reported, citing trading sources.

The Murban cargo fetched a premium of $5 per barrel above the Dubai benchmark, the sources told Reuters.

In addition to the rare Murban cargo, which totaled 2 million barrels, Indian Oil Corp. also bought 3 million barrels of Nigerian crude, a million barrels of Gabonese crude, and a cargo of Angolan crude in the past few days.

The outgoing U.S. administration last Friday slapped the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet, designating two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.

The sanctions on the oil companies are the first direct designations against Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which were sanctioned by the UK on the same day, too, as “the profits from these 2 companies are lining Putin’s war chest and facilitating the war,” as the UK government said.

The latest sanctions also cut off Russia’s access to U.S. services related to the extraction and production of crude oil and other petroleum products.

According to analysts, the sanction package could reduce the supply of Russian oil globally by between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels daily—a volume sufficient to keep the benchmarks higher.

As a result, Russia’s biggest clients in Asia are in a rush to secure the volumes they need, and they are driving a higher premium for these barrels. Earlier this week, Reuters again reported Indian Oil Corp. had organized its first sour crude import tender in three years, seeking high-sulfur crude from spot market suppliers. The company has also organized a tender for sweet crude, to be delivered between mid-February and mid-March.

Source: OILPRICE

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and its subsequent decisions often stir considerable debate and concern among investors, both seasoned and new. As the central bank plays a crucial role in shaping the U.S. economy through its policies, understanding the impact of these decisions is vital for everyday investors aiming to navigate market changes effectively. But what exactly does the Fed’s latest meeting mean for you, and how can it affect your investment strategy moving forward?

Key Takeaways from the Latest Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve's meetings are closely watched for clues about future monetary policy, particularly interest rates. The most recent meeting was no different. The Fed's policy decisions revolve around balancing inflation control, economic growth, and employment levels. In its latest meeting, the central bank raised or maintained interest rates, signaling its ongoing focus on tackling inflation, which has remained high despite earlier efforts.

One notable development was the Fed’s shift toward a more cautious approach. While earlier meetings were characterized by aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation, the latest decision reflected concerns about the broader economic impact. Despite this, the central bank emphasized its commitment to ensuring that inflation moves closer to its 2% target.

How Rate Decisions Affect Everyday Investors

For everyday investors, the Fed’s decisions on interest rates are of paramount importance. Higher interest rates tend to have a variety of impacts on financial markets and personal finances. Here's how:

Stock Market Impact: Higher interest rates generally make borrowing more expensive for companies, which can slow down their growth and reduce profits. As a result, stocks—especially those of growth-oriented companies—may experience downward pressure. However, established companies with strong fundamentals may still perform well, as their financial stability can buffer the impact of higher rates.

Bonds and Fixed-Income Investments: When the Fed raises interest rates, bond prices usually fall. This is because the fixed yields from existing bonds become less attractive compared to newly issued bonds that offer higher rates. For those with bond investments, this can mean a decline in portfolio value, although the long-term impact might be less severe for those holding bonds to maturity.

Real Estate Market: Rising interest rates often lead to higher mortgage rates, which can cool down the housing market. For investors in real estate or those looking to purchase homes, this means that affordability may decline, slowing down demand in the housing sector.

Currency Markets: Higher interest rates can make the U.S. dollar stronger, as investors flock to U.S. assets for better returns. This could affect foreign investments, especially in emerging markets, as a stronger dollar makes their assets more expensive to hold.

Consumer Behavior: When rates rise, consumers may cut back on spending due to higher loan costs and interest payments. This can lead to slower economic growth, which in turn can affect companies’ earnings, especially those in consumer-dependent sectors.

The Fed's Balancing Act

The Fed's challenge is to manage inflation without causing a recession. It wants to reduce inflation to its 2% target but must also ensure that its policies do not overly restrict economic growth or employment opportunities. Recent comments from Fed officials indicated that the central bank is committed to achieving a "soft landing"—a scenario in which inflation is controlled, and the economy avoids a significant slowdown. However, achieving this delicate balance is easier said than done, and many analysts predict that we may face economic volatility in the months ahead.

How Everyday Investors Can Prepare

For individual investors, it’s crucial to stay informed about the Fed’s decisions and how they could impact the broader market. Here are some strategies to consider:

Diversification: Maintaining a diversified portfolio remains key. By holding a mix of asset classes—stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities—investors can better weather market fluctuations caused by changes in interest rates.

Stay Focused on the Long-Term: While interest rate hikes can create short-term volatility, history shows that markets generally recover over time. Long-term investors should focus on their financial goals and avoid reacting impulsively to short-term changes.

Review Your Bond Holdings: If you hold bonds, consider evaluating their duration. Longer-duration bonds are more sensitive to rate changes, so it might be prudent to adjust your bond holdings based on your risk tolerance and investment timeline.

Consider Dividend Stocks: In a rising interest rate environment, dividend-paying stocks can offer a stable income stream. These stocks are often seen as more attractive because they provide income, which can help offset potential capital losses in a volatile market.

Monitor Economic Indicators: Keep an eye on key economic indicators such as inflation data, employment reports, and GDP growth. These can offer valuable insights into how the Fed might adjust its policies and whether it’s likely to raise or lower interest rates in the near future.

Conclusion

The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting has reinforced its commitment to fighting inflation, but the path forward is uncertain, with potential for both market opportunities and challenges. Everyday investors must stay informed about interest rate decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly. By maintaining a diversified portfolio, focusing on long-term goals, and staying nimble in response to economic changes, you can navigate this dynamic environment and continue working toward your financial goals.

Understanding the Fed’s role and decisions is crucial in today’s economic climate, and staying proactive is key to making smart investment choices during times of uncertainty.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

Day trading is one of the most dynamic and fast-paced investment strategies, often involving quick decisions, high risk, and the potential for significant rewards. While many focus on market analysis, technical indicators, and timing their entries and exits, one crucial factor that often gets overlooked is cash flow. Cash flow in day trading refers to the management of liquid capital available for trading, ensuring you have enough to enter and exit positions without liquidity constraints, and effectively managing profits and losses as they occur.

In this article, we’ll explore the importance of cash flow in day trading, how to manage it effectively, and how it can be the key to long-term success in this highly volatile environment.

What is Cash Flow in Day Trading?

Cash flow in day trading refers to the movement of money into and out of your trading account as you execute trades throughout the day. It’s not just about making profits, but ensuring you have sufficient liquidity (cash available) to cover your positions, absorb potential losses, and reinvest when opportunities arise.

The importance of cash flow cannot be overstated—poor cash flow management can lead to forced liquidations, missed opportunities, or even significant losses, regardless of how skilled you are as a trader.

The Role of Cash Flow in Day Trading

Day traders typically execute multiple trades throughout the day, often with a goal to profit from small price fluctuations in highly liquid markets. Unlike long-term investing, where capital can remain invested for extended periods, day traders need constant access to their cash to seize opportunities.

Here are a few ways cash flow plays a vital role in day trading:

Liquidity Management: In day trading, liquidity is king. You need enough cash on hand to enter trades without delay, especially when markets are moving quickly. If your funds are tied up in long positions or you’ve used up all available capital, you may miss opportunities to execute profitable trades.

Position Sizing and Risk Management: Having sufficient cash flow allows for proper position sizing, an essential component of risk management. If you’re unable to manage your risk due to a lack of available capital, you may find yourself over-leveraging positions or taking on more risk than you can handle. Managing your cash flow ensures you can always take on an appropriate level of risk.

Avoiding Margin Calls: Margin trading is a common practice in day trading, where you borrow funds from a broker to increase your position size. However, margin trading also comes with the risk of margin calls if the value of your positions declines. Maintaining healthy cash flow and adequate funds can help you avoid margin calls and protect your trading account from forced liquidations.

Reinvesting Profits: Cash flow is also critical in reinvesting profits into new trades. As a day trader, your success hinges on making continuous profits and compounding them by reinvesting capital. A steady cash flow allows you to scale up your operations, increasing both your capital base and the potential for higher profits.

Effective Strategies for Managing Cash Flow

Maintain an Emergency Cash Reserve: It’s important to have an emergency fund separate from your trading capital. This reserve should be liquid and readily accessible, offering a safety net in case of unexpected losses or downturns in the market. It’s advisable to have at least a few thousand dollars (depending on your trading size) set aside to weather any temporary setbacks.

Use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders: Stop-loss and take-profit orders are essential for managing cash flow. By setting these predetermined levels, you ensure that you don’t let your losses get too deep or your profits too small. These mechanisms allow you to automate exits, ensuring you protect your available cash and avoid emotional decision-making.

Keep Leverage in Check: Leverage allows you to control larger positions than your initial investment, but it also increases your exposure to risk. While leverage can amplify profits, it can also magnify losses, quickly eroding your cash flow if things go wrong. Being conservative with leverage and only using it when necessary can help you manage your available capital better.

Daily Profit and Loss Tracking: Keeping track of your daily gains and losses is an essential practice for any day trader. By monitoring your performance closely, you can make real-time adjustments to your strategies and prevent yourself from trading when your account balance is too low. Use a detailed ledger or trading journal to track your cash flow and assess the impact of each trade on your liquidity.

Diversify Your Trading Instruments: Trading various instruments, such as stocks, options, or forex pairs, can provide more opportunities to generate cash flow. However, it’s important to understand the liquidity and volatility of each market. Diversifying can allow you to capitalize on different market conditions, but only if you have enough liquidity to manage multiple positions simultaneously.

Consider the Costs of Trading: Every trade comes with costs, including commissions, spreads, and slippage. These fees can eat into your cash flow, so it’s essential to factor them into your trading plan. Opt for brokers with competitive commission structures or platforms that minimize trading costs, ensuring more of your profits stay in your pocket.

The Risks of Poor Cash Flow Management

Failure to manage cash flow effectively can lead to several negative consequences:

Forced Liquidation: If you’re unable to meet margin requirements or pay for trades, your broker may forcefully liquidate your positions to cover the shortfall. This can lead to losing valuable trades and, in extreme cases, a complete depletion of your account.

Missed Opportunities: If your cash is tied up in losing positions or illiquid assets, you may miss the opportunity to enter more profitable trades. Day trading is all about timing, and without proper liquidity management, you might find yourself on the sidelines during crucial market movements.

Increased Stress and Emotional Trading: Cash flow problems can also cause undue stress, leading to emotional decision-making. As your available funds dwindle, you may make riskier trades in an attempt to recover losses, which can further damage your capital. Staying disciplined and managing your liquidity helps reduce this risk.

Conclusion

Cash flow management is a fundamental aspect of day trading that should not be overlooked. Effective cash flow allows day traders to manage their liquidity, optimize their capital, and avoid common pitfalls like margin calls or missed opportunities. By developing a solid strategy for managing your cash, you can improve your chances of success in the high-stakes world of day trading, ensuring you’re well-equipped to weather the inevitable ups and downs of the market. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding and managing your cash flow is essential for long-term profitability and sustainability in day trading.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

The digital age has radically transformed the global economy, bringing with it new paradigms of information exchange, business practices, and economic structures. Centralized command economies, where the state controls all major economic decisions, stand in stark contrast to the capitalist, market-driven economies that dominate much of the world today. The question arises: Can a command economy, which relies heavily on central planning and state control, survive and thrive in a digital age defined by rapid innovation, decentralized systems, and a demand for flexibility?

In this article, we will explore the concept of command economies, examine the challenges they face in the modern digital landscape, and consider whether they can adapt to the changing global environment.

What is a Command Economy?

A command economy, also known as a planned economy, is an economic system where the government or central authority makes all decisions regarding the production, distribution, and allocation of resources. In such economies, the state owns and controls most industries, from manufacturing to services, and determines what goods and services are produced, in what quantity, and at what price.

Historically, countries with command economies have included the Soviet Union, Maoist China, and North Korea. The goal of a command economy is to ensure equitable distribution of wealth, minimize income inequality, and focus on collective welfare over individual profits. However, this system often struggles with inefficiency, lack of innovation, and an inability to respond swiftly to consumer needs.

The Challenges of a Command Economy in the Digital Age

The digital age is marked by technological advancements that have redefined economic interactions, offering new opportunities for business and market participation. From blockchain and cryptocurrencies to the gig economy and decentralized finance (DeFi), digital technologies are reshaping the way goods and services are produced, distributed, and consumed. This transformation poses several key challenges to command economies:

Speed of Innovation and Bureaucracy:Digital economies move quickly, with technological advancements often occurring at breakneck speed. The ability to rapidly innovate, create new products, and scale businesses has become essential for economic growth. In a command economy, however, the decision-making process is typically slow and encumbered by bureaucracy. The centralization of economic power stifles innovation as bureaucratic systems struggle to keep up with the pace of technological change. In a world where nimble startups can disrupt industries almost overnight, this sluggishness becomes a severe disadvantage.

Decentralized Networks vs. Centralized Control:One of the defining characteristics of the digital age is decentralization. From the rise of blockchain technology to peer-to-peer platforms, digital tools have enabled individuals and businesses to interact without the need for central authority. This decentralization challenges the very foundation of a command economy, which thrives on the concentration of decision-making power. The spread of digital networks means that the government may struggle to maintain full control over information, financial transactions, and even markets, as individuals and organizations increasingly rely on decentralized, digital platforms.

Consumer Empowerment and Choice:In a command economy, the state dictates what products are available, how much they cost, and how they are distributed. This top-down approach often leaves little room for consumer choice and preference. However, the digital economy is defined by consumer empowerment, with consumers having access to vast amounts of information, the ability to compare products, and the freedom to choose from a global marketplace. The shift toward online shopping, e-commerce, and personalized experiences challenges the rigidity of a planned economy, where such flexibility and choice are hard to achieve.

Data and Information Management:In today’s digital age, data is considered one of the most valuable resources. Companies use data to personalize offerings, forecast trends, and improve services. Command economies, by nature, struggle with managing large amounts of data and responding to real-time information. In a market-driven economy, businesses continuously analyze consumer behavior and adapt their strategies based on real-time data. In contrast, a command economy may rely on outdated or inaccurate information, leading to inefficiencies in production and distribution. The ability to collect, analyze, and act on data is a key competitive advantage in the digital age, and central planning systems often lack the infrastructure to support such dynamic decision-making.

Globalization and Digital Trade:The digital age has also ushered in an era of globalization, where businesses and consumers can interact across borders with minimal friction. Digital trade platforms, e-commerce websites, and cross-border financial services have created a global marketplace where the exchange of goods and services occurs rapidly. Command economies, which tend to have more insular, protectionist policies, may find it challenging to integrate into this globalized digital economy. Additionally, digital technologies allow businesses to circumvent traditional trade barriers, making it harder for a command economy to control international commerce.

Opportunities for a Command Economy in the Digital Age

While the challenges are significant, there are also potential opportunities for a command economy to adapt and evolve in the digital age. Here are a few ways in which such an economy could leverage digital tools to its advantage:

Smart Central Planning:The digital age offers new opportunities for central planners to use data analytics, AI, and machine learning to enhance the efficiency of central planning. By utilizing real-time data, governments could potentially improve resource allocation, predict demand patterns, and optimize production. Digital tools could allow central authorities to plan more effectively, responding more quickly to changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions.

Digital Infrastructure and State-Owned Enterprises:State-owned enterprises (SOEs) could become more competitive by embracing digital technologies. Governments could invest in digital infrastructure—such as high-speed internet, cloud computing, and AI—to modernize SOEs and make them more efficient. Additionally, digital platforms could be used to enhance transparency and improve communication between the government, businesses, and consumers, fostering greater trust and accountability.

Digital Currencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs):One area where a command economy could excel in the digital age is through the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These digital currencies could provide the government with more control over monetary policy, while also facilitating easier and more secure transactions within a centralized financial system. CBDCs could also help reduce reliance on cash, increase financial inclusion, and streamline economic processes.

Sustainability and Green Technologies:A command economy, with its ability to direct resources and focus on long-term planning, could be well-suited to spearhead initiatives in sustainability and green technology. By prioritizing investments in clean energy, smart cities, and sustainable agriculture, a government could harness digital technologies to achieve environmental goals while maintaining control over the economy.

Conclusion

The question of whether a command economy can survive in the digital age is complex. While the challenges posed by rapid technological change, decentralization, and consumer choice are significant, there are also opportunities for command economies to adapt. The key will be finding ways to combine the strengths of central planning with the flexibility and efficiency offered by digital tools.

By embracing technological innovation, modernizing state-owned enterprises, and investing in data-driven decision-making, a command economy may be able to find a place in the digital age—though it will require a shift in mindset and an openness to change. Ultimately, the future of command economies will depend on their ability to balance control with the need for innovation and responsiveness in an increasingly digital world.

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Oil Headed For Weekly Gain Amid New Us Sanctions On Russia

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

US Stocks on Precipice of Cliff! Key Insights from NFP Data and Its Ripple Effects

The NFP Data: A Game-Changer

Data Points to Watch:

Inflation and Interest Rates: The Looming Threat

Major Currency Performance by Region in 2024

Major Currency Performance by Region in 2024

What is the Most-Traded Currency by Region?

Which Currencies Gained Ground in 2024?

Which Currencies Lost Ground in 2024?

Opportunities in Foreign Exchange Trading

Source：visualcapitalist

India Replaces Russian Oil with Mideast and African Barrels

Source: OILPRICE

What the Fed's Latest Meeting Means for Everyday Investors

Key Takeaways from the Latest Fed Meeting

How Rate Decisions Affect Everyday Investors

The Fed's Balancing Act

How Everyday Investors Can Prepare

Conclusion

Cash Flow in Day Trading

What is Cash Flow in Day Trading?

The Role of Cash Flow in Day Trading

Effective Strategies for Managing Cash Flow

The Risks of Poor Cash Flow Management

Conclusion

Can a Command Economy Survive in the Digital Age

What is a Command Economy?

The Challenges of a Command Economy in the Digital Age

Opportunities for a Command Economy in the Digital Age

Conclusion

Risk Disclosure