Polymarket Bans French Traders Amid Gambling Probe

The price of the native token of smart contract platform Cardano has surged by more than 43% over the past week and over 140% in the last 12-month period amid a wider cryptocurrency market rally. ADA’s surge was notably accompanied by a rise in whale transactions.

The cryptocurrency, as CoinDesk reported, has recently briefly surpassed the $0.9 mark on various exchanges – its highest level since May 2022 – amid the rise, to have a market capitalization of over $30 billion.

The rally has been fueled by whale accumulation, with popular cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez noting that over the past month holders of over $10 million in ADA have increased their positions by over 145%.

As reported, on-chain analysis firm Santiment has noted that “Cardano is decoupled from the altcoin pack” as it moved to a near 8-month high. The firm added that ADA’s price ratio against BTC is also at a similar high, with the last time the whale volume was similar being ahead of a significant 26% price jump.

The cryptocurrency bull run has been benefiting the Cardano Foundation as well. As reported, the nonprofit organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem has revealed in a recent report that as of Dec.31, 2023, it held $478.24 million in assets, with 82.5% of those being held in ADA, 10.1% in BTC, and the rest in cash and cash equivalents.

The value of these assets has likely grown significantly since, given the crypotocurrency market’s recent price rally. Its ADA holdings, for example, are up more than 100% over the past year, if the Foundation didn’t sell any.

The report details that the Cardano Foundation’s main income stream comes from the staking rewards generated by delegating the ADA tokens it holds on the Cardano network. Last year, it notes, its 668.8 million ADA tokens generated 20.9 million additional ADA, a 3.1% return.

Featured image via Unsplash.

There’s a $30 million fund that, for all intents and purposes, leaves all investment decisions to be made by artificial intelligence A.

The firm’s name: Intelligent Alpha. Its staff includes founder and CEO Doug Clinton, a few programmers and contractors, and a trio of AIs — OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude.

The AI triumvirate makes up the firm’s investment committee and so far, it’s doing a stellar job.

“Some of the AI’s best calls have been shorts,” Clinton told CoinDesk in an interview. “It was short on Boeing earlier this year, before that door blew off the 737 MAX [in January]. And AI was actually short on the stock for that reason — because it thought there would be quality issues with the plane.”

While the firm has focused on traditional finance so far and mostly kept away from crypto, Clinton said he started experimenting with bitcoin {{BTC}} specifically in the last five months. The objective: for AI to set useful targets to trade the world’s top cryptocurrency.

“In the bull case — which was a Trump win and a more favorable regulatory environment — AI saw that bitcoin could maybe go to $140,000,” Clinton said. “Maybe that's the scenario we're working toward right now.”

How it works

A lot of firms now use AI to enhance human processes, to help analysts process data and think in different ways. But Clinton’s method is to give responsibility to the AI trio, and stay out of its way as much as possible when it comes to investment decisions.

The process is relatively simple. If, for example, Intelligent Alpha is looking to build a large cap U.S. equity portfolio, the fund will curate a bunch of data about U.S. companies with large market capitalizations, like historical revenue and earning projections, and feed it to the AIs.

The next step is to give a philosophical framework for the AIs to use. Clinton asks the AIs to step into the shoes of some of the most famous investors in the world — Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, Cathie Wood — and apply their way of thinking to the portfolio at hand.

The triumvirate then produces a portfolio, which a human must double-check to make sure there aren’t any “hallucinations,” in Clinton’s words. For example, the AI may accidentally include a stock that was recently acquired, or the stock of a company with a small market cap.

“Other than that, we try not to really mess with the portfolios,” Clinton told CoinDesk. “As a human, I’ll sometimes look at the portfolios and think ‘Oh, this pick seems like a terrible idea.’ Other times I’ll see something really interesting and try to understand the logic. It’s kind of fun.”

The process involves the three AIs explaining their reasoning to Clinton. Not only does it help him ascertain that the investments are aligned with the portfolio’s goals, but he says that models provide better portfolios when they’re forced to explain why they like specific stocks.

It often happens for the AIs to disagree. And their way of thinking changes as updates get rolled out. “It used to be the case that Claude was the most contrarian model in terms of the outputs, when we first started testing,” Clinton said. “Now I would say it’s ChatGPT.” And while Clinton has tested other AIs such as Grok or Lama AI, keeping the investment committee down to three AIs has proved to be the most efficient set-up.

Predicting the future

Investors can gain exposure to Intelligent Alpha’s strategy through an exchange-traded fund, the Intelligent Livermore ETF, which launched in September and uses AI to build a global equity portfolio. More such funds are on the way, Clinton said.

For the Livermore ETF, every financial quarter the models review world events and try to make predictions for the next three to six months. Five or six areas of opportunities are then identified (following the investment philosophies of the greats like Druckenmiller) and the portfolio gets built around these sectors.

Having competing philosophies means the portfolio usually ends up being quite balanced. “In many cases they're looking at idiosyncratic opportunities,” Clinton said. “We haven't seen big issues where [the investment philosophies] are at odds, but even then, it would be like hedging.” The AIs themselves make the decisions on how to weigh the various philosophies found in the portfolio, depending on the areas they’re the most confident in.

“AI has been, at least so far, really good at seeing forward,” Clinton said. “Right before we launched, it made a big bet on Asian stocks, specifically Chinese stocks, and that was right before [billionaire hedge fund manager] David Tepper went on CNBC in September and said that China was his biggest bet, that they were bringing out the bazooka for stimulus. And you know, Chinese stocks went crazy.”

Another memorable trade: chipmaker giant Nvidia has been AI’s top pick since the experiment began in summer of 2023. “Back then, I was like, ‘Oh, my God.’ Nvidia had run so much at that point,” Clinton said. “But it's up now like 400% from the moment the AI picked it.” The lesson in there, he says, is humans will react to charts emotionally, whereas AI “just doesn't care. It says ‘No, this is going to go higher.’”

Not that every bet has been a slam dunk, but so far, the mistakes have been on the margin, according to Clinton. The AI is building a good track record on macro events especially, he said. For one thing, it predicted that former President Donald Trump would be re-elected.

And crypto?

One of the reasons Intelligent Alpha doesn’t focus too much on crypto is simply lack of data. Their trades may have happened on-chain, but there’s no easy way to go back and find the kind of trading setups and investment philosophies used by famous crypto investors like Cobie or GCR. Most of the time, all you can do is go off of their posts on X — and it’s hard to know whether the posts reflect reality.

That being said, the crypto community’s reliance on X means that Grok could end up playing a role in Intelligent Alpha’s triumvirate someday for crypto purposes, Clinton mused, since that model is trained and fine-tuned with data from the social media platform.

“The question that we're exploring here is, what can we do with AI that would maybe be unique and different and stand out a little bit,” Clinton said. “To find a unique way to use AI to identify breakout crypto projects, that would be a really cool way to use the tech.”

It's long been a cryptocurrency maxim that Coinbase's C ranking in app store downloads signals how much retail traders are participating in a bull market. Well, the bull run's here, and Coinbase isn't climbing charts like it used to.

Instead, Phantom, a harder-to-use crypto wallet, has leapfrogged the better-known centralized exchange. At press time, Phantom was in seventh place among free applications — between Temu and Google — on Apple's U.S. App Store, well ahead of Coinbase at 27th.

The flip is challenging expectations of what mainstream traders can tolerate during their first days in crypto. While the bitcoin community in particular has always emphasized "being your own bank," other parts of the cryptoverse, like Coinbase, have bet on a more accessible experience.

Memecoin mania is blowing that up. Coinbase and other established exchanges don't list the bottom-of-the-barrel, hours-old, exceptionally risky yet sometimes tremendously lucrative (if you don't lose your shirt, as most do) joke tokens that new traders want to bet on. To get those, they gotta go on-chain with something like Phantom.

"Traditional centralized exchanges can't keep up with all of the new on-chain paradigms fast enough," said Phantom CEO Brandon Millman in an email.

Chill Guy, TikTok

In the past week, one memecoin in particular, Chill Guy, caught plenty of attention on TikTok and even more bids on-chain. Bolstered by a coordinated social media marketing campaign, CHILLGUY — whose mascot is, well, a chill-looking dog — soared in days from a market cap of basically nothing to as high as $500 million.

Buying CHILLGUY and other fresh memecoins requires a bit more effort than, say, buying bitcoin {{BTC}} on Coinbase. Traders must navigate decentralized exchanges and learn to futz with finicky order settings just to get the prices they want. It's a clunky setup with a high learning curve compared to the exchanges.

Whether TikTok is primarily responsible for driving newcomers on-chain is an open question. The video app's exceptionally niche crypto scene doesn't have any truly standout videos racking up millions of views, as those de rigueur dance routines often do. More common are the oodles of low-viewership crypto bros crowing about their gazillionaire designs. A handful also teach their followers how to download Phantom.

Coinbase is onboarding memecoins, to be sure. In the past week, it greenlit FLOKI and PEPE, as well as WIF for German traders. Those tokens have been around a relatively long time and accrued market caps in the billions of dollars, making them more stable (relatively speaking) than, say, DIDDYOIL, a memecoin only accessible to traders who operate on-chain.

"Our mission is to increase economic freedom in the world, and we know we can't do it alone," a spokesperson for Coinbase said. "We believe a rising tide raises all boats, and we are thrilled to see more people engaging on-chain and with crypto over the last few weeks."

While the Coinbase exchange itself is only tiptoeing into the memecoin space, the company at large is attempting to foster — and capture — such activity with its layer-2 network, Base. Base's memecoin scene isn't at the level of Solana {{SOL}}, but it still sees millions of dollars worth of volume each day.

"We're focused on making on-chain faster (transactions anywhere across the globe in seconds), cheaper (with typical Base fees of less than 1 cent) and easier to use, so on-chain technology is accessible to anyone, anywhere in the world," the spokesperson said.

"We're looking forward to bringing a billion people on-chain."

Washington, DC-based advocacy group Blockchain Association submitted a letter to Donald Trump on Nov. 22 beseeching the President-elect to prioritize radical cryptocurrency and blockchain regulatory reform during his first 100 days in office.

The brief letter was shared on the Association’s website. It lays out a five-point reformation plan for the incoming Trump administration’s first 100 days.

Blockchain Association’s stated goal is for the republican party to restructure federal oversight in the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors in order to spur growth in the sector.

“For years, American crypto innovators have been targeted and, in some cases, driven offshore by a hostile regulatory regime,” wrote the Association, adding:

Optimism (OP) price has surged 43.40% in the last seven days, showcasing strong bullish momentum in the market. The uptrend is supported by rising trend strength, with the ADX confirming growing momentum and EMA lines showing a bullish setup.

Despite the rally, a declining trend in daily active addresses suggests caution, as it may indicate reduced network activity and potential pressure on OP’s price. Whether OP can sustain this momentum to test resistance at $3 or face a deeper correction depends on the strength of buyer interest in the coming days.

OP Current Uptrend Is Strong

Optimism currently has an ADX of 28.7, a significant surge from below 15 just a day ago. The sharp rise in ADX indicates that the strength of OP’s current trend is increasing fast, signaling growing momentum behind the price movement.

The ADX measures trend strength, with values above 25 indicating a strong trend and below 20 suggesting a weak or nonexistent trend. At 28.7, OP’s ADX confirms that its uptrend is gaining traction and could sustain further upward momentum if this strength persists.

The positive directional index (D+) is at 38.8, while the negative directional index (D-) is at 9.37, showing that bullish pressure far outweighs bearish activity. This large gap between D+ and D- reflects strong buyer dominance, reinforcing the uptrend.

The combination of a rising ADX and a high D+ suggests that OP’s price could continue climbing as long as market conditions remain favorable and buying pressure persists.

OP Daily Active Addresses Bring An Important Signal

OP 7-day moving average of daily active addresses was 14,200 as of November 21.

This metric reflects the number of unique wallet interactions with the network, which indicates continued strong activity but is down from the yearly peak of 26,300 on October 13.

Daily active addresses are a crucial metric because they provide insights into network usage and overall demand. A decreasing trend in this metric may signal waning interest or reduced activity on the network, which could translate into lower buying pressure for OP.

If the trend continues to decline, it may exert downward pressure on OP price as market enthusiasm fades. However, a reversal in this metric could reignite bullish sentiment and support future price growth.

Optimism Price Prediction: Can OP Reach $3 In November?

If Optimism price maintains its uptrend, it could test the next resistance levels at $2.55 and potentially $3.04. Breaking above $3.04 could pave the way for OP price to challenge $3.41, its highest price since April.

This bullish scenario is supported by the EMA lines, which show a favorable setup with short-term lines positioned above the long-term ones, indicating strong momentum.

However, if the trend reverses, OP price could face significant downward pressure, with the next supports at $1.82 and $1.53.

If these levels fail to hold, the price could drop further to $1.06, representing a steep 51% correction.

Sui, a Layer-1 network, announced a new partnership with investment firm Franklin Templeton. This partnership includes capital investment in Sui and support for the firm’s blockchain development.

Despite a few vague details, the exact nature of the working relationship between the two companies remains unclear.

Sui Partners Franklin Templeton

Sui, the prominent Layer-1 blockchain, recently partnered with investment firm Franklin Templeton. This partnership will prioritize supporting a developer ecosystem rather than focusing directly on SUI development. The firm claimed Franklin Templeton has been supporting blockchain projects since 2018, and its CEO has espoused blockchain technology.

As of yet, the firm has publicly revealed very few exact details about the partnership’s planned blockchain developments. Instead, the firm discussed several of its existing projects that attracted Franklin Templeton’s attention: its DeFi central limit order book, a decentralized mobile carrier, and an MPC network.

Still, this information does provide a few clues about the investment firm’s intentions. Earlier this year, Franklin Templeton explored DePin projects, considering them a possible lucrative development area. The firm has also been investing heavily in tokenization. It may help Sui by supporting its blockchain developers in these areas, especially DePin.

Sui, for its part, is performing quite well lately. It recently went on a remarkable bull run, climbing 74% in one month before hitting an all-time high on November 20. Yesterday, its blockchain stopped producing blocks for nearly two hours, but its token price remained impressively steady. These fundamentals could make Sui an attractive partner for Franklin Templeton.

Franklin Templeton has not yet made any direct announcements about this partnership. Sui additionally posted a more developed press release, but it did not have substantially different information than the talking points in its main announcement. Suffice it to say that Franklin Templeton is investing in Sui blockchain development.