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The British Pound rose against the Euro and Dollar after UK retail sales easily beat expectations and the government recorded a rare financial surplus in January.
NZD/USD holds loses following approximately 1% gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5760 during the Asian hours. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) loses ground following domestic Trade Balance data released on Friday.
New Zealand recorded a trade deficit of NZD 486 million in January 2025, reversing from December’s revised surplus of NZD 94 million (previously NZD 219 million). Goods exports declined to NZD 6.19 billion from NZD 6.67 billion, while imports rose to NZD 6.8 billion from NZD 6.62 billion.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway noted on Friday, “Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecasts indicate another 75 basis points (bps) easing.” Governor Adrian Orr indicated earlier that additional rate cuts are likely in the coming months as inflation eases, with policymakers aiming to support the weakening economy.
However, the NZD/USD pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 14 increased to 219,000, surpassing the expected 215,000. Continuing Jobless Claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just under the forecast of 1.87 million.
Additionally, the NZD/USD pair saw gains amid improved market sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced potential progress in trade negotiations with China, easing market concerns over tariffs.
EUR/GBP steadies as traders adopt caution ahead of Eurozone PMI and UK Retail Sales data.
The Pound Sterling faced challenges amid ongoing concerns about the UK’s economic outlook.
The EUR could lose ground as the ECB is expected to deliver quarter-point cuts at every meeting until mid-2025.
EUR/GBP maintains its position following gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8290 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross gained ground as traders remained cautious due to ongoing concerns about the UK’s economic outlook. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey warned this week that economic growth is expected to remain sluggish, with a softening labor market.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) tried to gain traction after a hotter-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January was released on Wednesday. Governor Bailey had already indicated that a short-term inflation spike, driven by volatile energy prices, wouldn’t be persistent.
The EUR/GBP cross may lose ground due to rising expectations of further interest rate reductions from the European Central Bank (ECB). Analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver quarter-point cuts at every meeting until mid-2025. That would bring the deposit rate to 2.0%.
However, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated on Wednesday that the central bank might announce a "halt" in its monetary expansion cycle, as inflation risks have "skewed to the upside" while borrowing costs have significantly eased. Schnabel cautioned that domestic inflation remains "high" and wage growth is "still elevated," particularly amid "new shocks to energy prices."
Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the preliminary HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone and Germany, set for release on Friday. On the UK front, attention will be on the upcoming Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD remains above 1.2650 near two-month highs
GBP/USD edged lower after hitting a two-month high of 1.2674 on Friday, trading around 1.2670 at the time of writing during the Asian session. However, the pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 14 increased to 219,000, surpassing the expected 215,000. Continuing Jobless Claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just under the forecast of 1.87 million. Read more...
GBP/USD rises above 1.2600 on weak US jobs data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) climbs against the US Dollar (USD) and crosses the 1.2600 figure on Thursday, with traders awaiting the release of United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data. Meanwhile, a soft United States (US) jobs report weakened the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.2616, up 0.25%.
The Cable failed to rally on Wednesday as inflation rose above 3% in January, weakening the case for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's tariffs rhetoric continues.
The USD/CHF pair recovers some lost ground around 0.8985 amid a modest rebound in US Dollar (USD) during the early European session on Friday. Investors brace for the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports, which will be released later on Friday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly and Philip Jefferson are set to speak later on the same day.
Fed officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation ease more before lowering interest rates further. Policymakers are concerned about the impact Trump’s tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the bank was not "in a hurry" to cut the interest rate further, given significant uncertainty about where the economy might be headed. Analysts anticipate the US central bank will likely reduce its benchmark interest rate only once in 2025, with a big chance of no rate cuts at all. This, in turn, could lift the USD against the Swiss Franc (CHF).
Trump said on Wednesday he will announce new tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine seem to have faded in the wake of intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Oil pumping stations. Concerns about US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions should lend support to the safe-haven currency like CHF.
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