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Suncor Energy SU is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 5, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 82 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $8.56 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced SU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of SU’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the previous reported quarter, this Alberta-based integrated oil and gas company’s earnings beat the consensus mark. SU reported an earnings per share of $1.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20 cents. This was primarily due to higher production from its oil sands, strong refining performance and efficient cost management in the reported quarter. The company’s operating revenues of $9.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.7%. SU’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 19.87% This is depicted in the graph below:

Suncor Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Suncor Energy Inc. price-eps-surprise | Suncor Energy Inc. Quote

Trend in SU’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of 82 cents per share has witnessed a 7.8% upward movement in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 17.54% year-over-year bottom-line decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a deterioration of 11.83% from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of SU’s Q4 Release

Suncor Energy makes money by operating in three main areas. First, in its Oil Sands business, Suncor extracts and processes oil from Canada's oil sands, producing crude oil and synthetic oil. Second, through its Exploration and Production segment, Suncor operates offshore oil and gas fields, producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. Finally, in its Refining and Marketing segment, Suncor refines crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel. Suncor sells these products through its retail gas stations and other distribution channels.

On a positive note, the company is likely to have achieved record quarterly production of 874,000 barrels per day (bbls/d), an increase of 66,000 bbls/d from fourth-quarter 2023, potentially indicating strong performance across its oil sands and offshore assets. Refinery throughput is also expected to have set a new record at 487,000 bbls/d, with all four refineries operating at more than 100% utilization.

These results demonstrate Suncor’s operational efficiency and robust asset performance, positioning it well in the competitive energy sector. Additionally, the company has successfully reached its $8 billion net debt target nine months ahead of schedule, highlighting disciplined capital management and a strong balance sheet.

Despite these operational strengths, profitability is likely to have faced challenges due to external market factors. Even with higher production, weaker oil prices or refining margins are likely to have limited revenue growth, potentially affecting earnings. Furthermore, fluctuations in refining crack spreads and fuel demand are likely to have pressured downstream margins, reducing the financial benefit of record throughput levels.

On a more cautious note, inflationary pressures are likely to have increased operational expenses, with rising input costs and labor expenses potentially affecting overall profitability.

What Does Our Model Say About SU?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show an earnings beat for Suncor Energy this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of SU: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SU’s Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Suncor, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

California Resources CRC has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The firm is scheduled to release earnings on March 3. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for California’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 8.03% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.67 billion, CRC’s shares have lost 0.1% in a year.

EQT EQT has an Earnings ESP of +4.50% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 18.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EQT’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 146.51% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $29.77 billion, EQT’s shares have gained 42% in a year.

Energy Transfer ET has an Earnings ESP of +4.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 6.08% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $69.68 billion, ET’s shares have gained 41.3% in a year.

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Helmerich & Payne, Inc. HP is set to release first-quarter earnings on Feb. 5, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 69 cents per share on revenues of $691.43 million.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced HP’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of HP’s Q4 Earnings

In the last reported quarter, the Tulsa, OK-based oil and gas drilling company’s earnings missed the consensus mark. HP reported adjusted earnings of 76 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents. This was due to the weakness in the company's International Solutions and Gulf of Mexico segments. Operating revenues of $693.8 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%.

HP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in one, delivering an average earnings surprise of 14.88%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision for HP Stock

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed two upward revisions and a downward movement in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 2.11% year-over-year increase. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a decrease of 28.87% from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of HP’s Q1 Release

Helmerich & Payne generally makes money by offering drilling services and technology to oil and gas companies. HP operates in several regions, including North America, the Gulf of Mexico and internationally. The company earns revenues by drilling for oil and gas in these areas and by developing technologies that improve drilling efficiency and well quality.

HP's revenues are likely to have been positively impacted in the quarter to be reported. Our model predicts first-quarter revenues to have increased to $688 million from the year-ago period’s level of $677.1 million. This increase is due to the higher performance across North America Solutions, Offshore Gulf of Mexico and Other segments.

According to our model, HP’s North America Solutions is expected to grow 2.5% year over year, reaching $609.4 million in the quarter to be reported. The Offshore Gulf of Mexico is expected to increase 11.3% year over year, totaling $28.4 million, while the Other segment is anticipated to grow 1.1% year over year, reaching $18 million during the same time.

On another positive note, the company’s research and development expenses are expected to have fallen 40.7%, totaling $5.1 million. This reduction in costs highlights the company's efforts to improve efficiency and control expenses.

What Does Our Model Say About HP?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Helmerich & Payne this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

HP has an Earnings ESP of +5.29% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Other Stocks to Consider

Helmerich & Payne is not the only energy company that have the right elements to post an earnings beat in this reporting cycle. Here are some other firms from the space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

California Resources CRC has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The firm is scheduled to release earnings on March 3. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for California’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 8.03% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.67 billion, CRC’s shares have risen 0.1% in a year.

Ovintiv OVV has an Earnings ESP of +3.09% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 26.

In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has moved up 6.3%. Valued at around $11.34 billion, OVV’s shares have gained 2.1% in a year.

Energy Transfer ET has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 6.08% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $67.83 billion, ET has gained 40% in a year.

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC is set to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's profit is pegged at 37 cents per share on revenues of $30.72 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MPC’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of MPC’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator’s earnings beat the consensus mark on the back of lower costs and expenses. MPC reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.87, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. Revenues of $35.4 billion also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.7%. Marathon Petroleum’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 51.71%. This is depicted in the graph below.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Marathon Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Petroleum Corporation Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision for MPC Stock

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 46.4% downward in the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a 90.7% decline year over year. Meanwhile, the top-line estimate implies a 16.56% decrease from the year-ago period’s level.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MPC’s Q4 Release

Marathon Petroleum makes money through two main segments, Refining & Marketing and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale, and distributes refined products like transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products, and gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids.

The Midstream segment is expected to have provided steady earnings, driven by projects like pipeline expansion and new gas processing facilities in the Permian and Marcellus basins. These initiatives are expected to have boosted volumes and improved efficiency in the quarter to be reported. On the other hand, HP’s high utilization rates (projected at 90% for the fourth quarter) and value-chain optimization efforts are likely to have supported profitability by reducing costs and enhancing operational efficiency.

On a bearish note, the Refining & Marketing segment is likely to have faced pressure on the top line, due to declining crack spreads and weaker seasonal demand for gasoline and distillates. Our model expects fourth-quarter revenues for the Refining & Marketing segment to be $30.63 billion, indicating a 12.6% decline compared with the reported figure of year-ago quarter. This is expected to have impacted top-line growth.

Furthermore, planned maintenance in key regions, such as the Mid-Continent area, is expected to have reduced throughput, which may result in lower production and profitability.

On a more cautious note, refining operating costs are expected to have increased to $5.50 per barrel, up from previous quarters. This rise in costs, coupled with weaker margins, is likely to have further pressured the bottom line, constraining profitability and reducing overall earnings potential in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Does Our Model Say About MPC?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.25%.

Zacks Rank: MPC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

California Resources CRC has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The firm is scheduled to release earnings on March 3. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for California’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 8.03% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.67 billion, CRC’s shares have risen 0.1% in a year.

Ovintiv OVV has an Earnings ESP of +3.09% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 26.

In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has moved up 6.3%. Valued at around $11.34 billion, OVV’s shares have gained 2.1% in a year.

Energy Transfer ET has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 6.08% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $67.83 billion, ET has gained 40% in a year.

Zacks Investment Research