Q4 2024 Arcbest Corp Earnings Call

For the quarter ended December 2024, ArcBest (ARCB) reported revenue of $1 billion, down 8.1% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.33, compared to $2.47 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $997.94 million, representing a surprise of +0.37%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +26.67%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.05.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how ArcBest performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

• Asset-Based - Billed revenue/CWT: $49.27 compared to the $48.86 average estimate based on two analysts.
• Asset-Light - Operating Ratio: 100.4% versus the two-analyst average estimate of 102.1%.
• Asset-Based - Shipments / Day: 19,698 Tons versus 19,865.21 Tons estimated by two analysts on average.
• Asset-Based - Operating Ratio (Non-GAAP): 92% compared to the 93% average estimate based on two analysts.
• Asset-Based - Operating Ratio: 92% versus 93.2% estimated by two analysts on average.
• Asset-Based - Workdays: 62 versus the two-analyst average estimate of 62.
• Asset-Based - Pounds(Weight) / Shipment: 1,092 lbs compared to the 1,098.08 lbs average estimate based on two analysts.
• Asset-Based - Tons / Day: 10,758 Ton versus the two-analyst average estimate of 10,906.58 Ton.
• Asset-Light - Operating Ratio (Non-GAAP): 101.6% compared to the 101.7% average estimate based on two analysts.
• Revenues- Asset-Based: $656.22 million versus $653.87 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -7.6% change.
• Revenues- Asset-Light: $375.43 million compared to the $376.19 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -9.2% year over year.
• Revenues- Other and eliminations: -$30.01 million versus -$31.83 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -11.4% change.

View all Key Company Metrics for ArcBest here>>>

Shares of ArcBest have returned +2.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.9% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.

Zacks Investment Research

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 0.5% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust advanced 0.9% in Friday's premarket activity as traders anticipate upcoming economic reports due later in the day.

US stock futures were higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.8% before the start of regular trading.

The December personal consumption expenditures core price index and the Q4 employment cost index will be released at 8:30 am ET, followed by the Chicago PMI for January at 9:45 am ET.

The Baker Hughes domestic oil-and-gas rig count posts at 1 pm ET.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 8:30 am ET.

In premarket activity, bitcoin was down by 0.3% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was 0.3% lower.

Power Play:

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 1%, and the iShares US Technology ETF was 1% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF was inactive. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF was up 0.4%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF advanced 0.8%.

AST SpaceMobile shares were up 6.5% in recent Friday premarket activity after the company said late Thursday it received a special temporary authority from the Federal Communications Commission authorizing the company's testing service in the US.

Winners and Losers:

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund advanced 0.3%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares was up 0.8%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares was 0.8% lower.

Banco Santander Chile shares were down 4.3% pre-bell Friday after the company reported lower-than-expected Q4 net income.

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund advanced 0.1%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund was up 0.7% while the iShares US Healthcare ETF was inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF gained 0.7%.

Novartis stock was up 2.2% premarket after the company reported higher Q4 core earnings and revenue.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund declined by 0.3%.

Dorian LPG stock was down 2.1% before Friday's opening bell after the company reported lower fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings and revenue.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund retreated 0.2% and the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund was down 0.6%, while the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.

ArcBest stock was up 1.6% before the opening bell after the company reported lower Q4 non-GAAP earnings and revenue.

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund was down 0.1%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund was inactive. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF was inactive, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund gained 0.3%. The VanEck Retail ETF and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF were inactive.

Colgate-Palmolive shares were down 1.6% pre-bell after the company reported lower Q4 net sales that trailed analyst estimates.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 0.2% to $72.62 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas fell 1% at $3.02 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund lost 0.2%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund fell 1.2%.

Gold futures for April were up 0.1% at $2,847.10 an ounce on the Comex, and silver futures gained 0.6% to reach $32.68 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares were up 0.4%, while the iShares Silver Trust was 0.5% higher.

ArcBest (ARCB) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.33 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.47 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 26.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this freight transportation and logistics company would post earnings of $1.84 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.64, delivering a surprise of -10.87%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.

ArcBest, which belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry, posted revenues of $1 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.37%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.09 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

ArcBest shares have added about 1.3% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 3.2%.

What's Next for ArcBest?

While ArcBest has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for ArcBest: unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.79 on $1.04 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $7.50 on $4.44 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Transportation - Truck is currently in the bottom 7% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended December 2024. The results are expected to be released on February 5.

This trucking company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.17 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -20.4%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.1% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.

Old Dominion Freight Line's revenues are expected to be $1.38 billion, down 7.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Zacks Investment Research

ArcBest reported Q4 non-GAAP earnings Friday of $1.33 per diluted share, down from $2.47 a year earlier.

Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.05.

Revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 was $1.00 billion, down from $1.09 billion a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $995 million.

Shares of the global logistics and shipping company were up nearly 5% in Friday's premarket activity.