Investing.com - Risks from President Donald Trump’s tariff plans may not be built into annual consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings, according to analysts at Citi.
In a note to clients, the analysts led by Scott Chronert said fourth-quarter results surprised to the upside and 2025 outlook revisions moved downwards, setting the stage for "an attainable consensus" picture in 2025.
However, they flagged that this conclusion "oversimplifies the fundamental storyline" for S&P 500 returns, namely that top-line surprises were "not far off from historic patterns," which implied that profits were being driven more by "operational efficiency" measures.
With the quarterly earnings season mostly concluded, S&P 500 earnings have beaten expectations by roughly 7%, while consensus estimates for index-wide full-year income per share have fallen slightly to the analysts’ projections of $270, the analysts said.
Still, in the short term, "policy risks remain and we remain wary that tariff impacts are not embedded in current consensus," the analysts wrote. Trump has proposed slapping sweeping tariffs on friends and adversaries alike, threatening to upend the stability of global trade and clouding the outlook for a host of businesses.
"We know that Trump policy uncertainty remains an overhang and want to be very clear that tariff impacts can still be a material negative to forward earnings expectations."
The analysts added that while most companies seem to be placing "some conservativeness" into their forecasts, "that does not mean that we are anywhere near clarity on policy implications," whether they be "direct" risks from tariffs or "indirect" risks from trends around demand or consumption.
Separately, they highlighted 25 major companies that, because they represent a sizeable portion of the anticipated 10.9% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share growth this year, will need to deliver on consensus expectations for the index to hit that forecast.
These firms include Magnificent 7 mega-cap tech names like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), as well as other firms such semiconductor players Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) and jetmaker Boeing (NYSE:BA).