Rock-Solid Bund

Summary:

German Bund yields holding on to last week's gains confirm the market's recessionary mood. We identify potential drivers for 10Y yields crossing below 1%.

Bund resilience is more evidence of the market's recessionary mood

This week is still in its infancy, and summer trading conditions can throw conflicting signals to market participants. That being said, price action so far has reinforced our view that the themes we identified for EUR rates are the correct ones. Perhaps the most notable takeaway is that euro government bonds have held on to Friday's outsized gains without much of a partial retracement, which is a rare occurrence. Rock-Solid Bund_1

Let us start with the German Bund's Homeric resilience in the face of hawkish European Central Bank soundbites. Public comments by the likes of Robert Holzmann and Martins Kazaks, about the next hike iterations being potentially 50bp or more, could perhaps be dismissed by markets as fringe hawkish views. Ignacio Visco, a more dovish member, also keeping the possibility of 50bp on the table should in theory have elicited more of a sell-off in front-end rates, however, alongside his implicit downgrade of gradualism. We can only explain this by the market's sudden realisation that the looming recession will stop the ECB in its tightening tracks.

1% in sight, with help from Russia and the U.S.

In longer tenors, the Bund's failure to follow Treasury yields lower is also ominous for proponents of higher euro market rates. In a week when the most significant bear case for bonds is a more hawkish FOMC, the divergence between Bunds and Treasuries is a notable development. Our view is that central banks will increasingly struggle to push long-end rates higher no matter how hawkish they get. This is particularly true of the ECB due to the more immediate eurozone recession risk (which could be as soon as this winter), and its uncontrolled nature (due to worries over gas supplies rather than monetary tightening).

In that light, we started the week thinking that only good news on either Russian gas flows or Chinese Covid cases could reasonably keep 10Y Bunds away from testing the 1% level to the downside. It turns out, the latest reports suggest the resumption of Russian gas flows last week was only an ephemeral piece of good news, with Nord Stream 1 flows to be significantly curtailed to only 20% of capacity (down from 40%) as soon as tomorrow. The nature of this risk is such that it is much easier for markets to extrapolate bad news and dismiss good news.

Incidentally, 1% is also the level we identified as a medium-term 10Y Bund forecast. The fact that Bund yields have reached this level while pricing out hikes, but not as much as we forecast, tells us that there is more downside to Bund yields despite all the bad economic news they have already priced since last week. It is only a matter of time before the market realises how limited the ECB's room to hike is, with the penny likely to drop in and around the September meeting, in our view.

Today's events and market view

US data is the main item on today's economic menu and none of the releases makes for an appetising reading. Housing numbers (house prices and new home sales) should confirm that the housing sector is most immediately hit by the Fed's tightening cycle, and our economics team stresses that they will put downward pressure on inflation's housing component next year. Sentiment indicators, in the form of consumer confidence and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, are also expected to dip from already Tartarian depths.

Italy will sell 2Y and inflation-linked debt in challenging market conditions.

Source: ING

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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Damon

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If Russia keeps to the deal it has signed with Ukraine allowing for the resumption of grain exports, much needed relief will be provided to importing countries, including many in Africa.

The relief would be significant as Ukraine has roughly 22 million tonnes of grain (wheat, maize, sunflower seed and other grains) in silos. It has not been able to ship these to export markets because of Russia's invasion, which disrupted infrastructure and the attacks on vessels transporting goods.

Ukraine is a notable player in global grain and oilseeds export market. And thus, the blockage of exports has contributed to the notable increase in agricultural commodity prices observed since the war started.

The aim of the "grain deal", signed between Kyiv and Moscow on July 22 2022, was to change this chaotic situation. Under the agreement Russia promised not to attack grain vessels in the Black Sea region. But this promise didn't last long. Less than 24 hours after the deal was signed Russian missiles struck the critical Ukrainian port of Odesa.

The attack is likely to undermine the deal, a multinational effort to avert the global food crisis. In addition, grain traders and merchants might be reluctant to be involved in the zone if they consider it to be too risky. This would ultimately defeat the deal.

But if Russia keeps its word, the benefits will be immediate. Grain prices could soften as more grain supplies become available to the world market. Overall this would be a good development for consumers, particularly those living in poor developing nations.

The possible softening of prices would add to an already positive picture of global grain prices, which have come off from the record levels seen in weeks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For example, the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation Global Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, was down 2% in June 2022 from the previous month. This was a third monthly decline.

Still, this is up 23% year on year, which means that the recent deal and possible resumption of trade would bring much-needed relief to the grains market.

Nevertheless, the deal's impact on grain prices is likely to be marginal. Grain prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels. A number of factors had been driving up agricultural prices in the two years prior to the conflict. These included drought in South America, East Africa, and Indonesia and rising demand for grains in China have weighed on global grains supplies.

Implications for Africa

The possible price decline and increase in supply as a result of deal between Russia and Ukraine is likely to benefit all importing countries and consumers in the medium term.

This assumes that the deal holds – and that shipping lines will start taking orders and moving grains.

From an African perspective, the continent imports about US$80 billion worth of agricultural products a year, mainly wheat, palm oil and sunflower seed. The annual food import bill from the sub-Saharan Africa region is roughly US$40 billion per year.

Therefore, however marginal, a potential decline in the prices of these commodities would be positive for importing countries – and ultimately consumers.

Importantly, Africa imports US$4 billion of agricultural products from Russia, 90% of which is wheat and 6% is sunflower seed. The major importing countries are Egypt (50%), followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya, and South Africa.

Similarly, Africa imports US$2.9 billion worth of agricultural products from Ukraine. About 48% of this was wheat, 31% maize, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley, and soybeans.

A resumption of the trade activity would release about 22 million tonnes of grains out of Ukraine. It's also safe to assume that grain orders from Russia to various markets in the world will also increase.

Africa's biggest wheat importers would benefit the most from a resumption of shipments out of Ukraine's ports. More generally, the softening in prices would benefit consumers across the world.

In addition, the World Food Programme will be able to source food for donations in struggling African regions, such as East Africa, where there is a bad drought, as well as parts of Asia.

One can't miss the fact that Ukrainian farmers would benefit too. They have been worried that, without a resumption of trade, their crops would rot in silos. The deal signals hope for some relief, and the prospect of creating space to store the new season crop.

Uncertainties

There's still a great deal of uncertainty around the deal in the wake of the Russian following the missile attack on Odesa. Multinational discussions will be a crucial determinant of whether grain trade resumes from the Black Sea.

Measures will also need to be put in place to assure merchants of the safety of their cargo.

The grain price dynamics and possible benefits for importing countries will all depend on these uncertain developments. Still, any success in the exports of grains from Ukraine will benefit the African countries directly through the delivery of physical supplies – or indirectly through possible global price softening.

Source: theconversation

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Thomas

It should surprise no one that the first big pandemic-era display of worker power was in air travel, according to Sharan Burrow, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.

"The aviation sector globally is a prime example of bad employment policy," Burrow said of an industry whose high-volume, low-cost model has long been criticised for poor working conditions and eroding labour rights.

"People are voting with their feet," she told Reuters of the reluctance of many aviation workers to return after dismissals or furloughs, a trend which - alongside strikes over pay - caused havoc at European airports last month.

The bigger question now is whether other workers will follow suit and reverse a decades-old decline in industrial action that has seen employers gain the upper hand in labour relations.

Conditions appear ripe for unrest.

COVID-19 exacerbated economic inequalities, with a World Bank study last year showing incomes were worst-hit among the poorest fifth of people globally.

Workers in transport, retail and healthcare - while lauded by governments for their bravery - did low-paid jobs in often unsafe conditions as millions of white-collar workers worked from home.

Compounding the impact of a decade of weak wage growth in rich countries after the 2008/09 recession, inflation now edging into double-digits is worsening the plight of the working poor.

Yet while such grievances are real, trade unions have lost much of the clout they had before the 1980s push for economic liberalisation.

The Fissured Workplace

Trade union density - the number of union members as a proportion of employees - has more than halved across developed economies from 33.9% in 1970 to just 15.8% in 2019, figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development show.

U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics show a corresponding decline over the same period both in the number of serious U.S. work stoppages and total number of days lost to industrial action.

Workers Seize Their Moment to Shift the Balance of Power_2

Since its 1990s "lost decade", Japan has rarely seen industrial strife as union leaders prioritise job security above wage hikes. Other Western economies such as Australia have passed laws to make strikes harder.

In Europe, unions can still wield power despite falling membership. But data compiled by the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) show a similar dip in labour-related disruption as trends from outsourcing to the gig economy emerged.

"There might be grievances in society and on the work floor but this social injustice needs to be organised and channelled," said Kurt Vandaele, senior ETUI researcher.

"Fissured workplaces might make it harder to set up industrial action because in the same place you have different categories of workers, different companies. This is increasing the coordination costs for unions."

A 2021 report by the International Labour Organisation warned trade unions they risked being marginalised unless they served those in precarious or informal employment - notably young workers, for whom secure contracts are rare.

Social media heroes?

There is some evidence that unions are taking that on board.

Digital organisation is growing - from using Zoom calls to discuss worker grievances, right up to piggy-backing an employer's intranet site to spread union messages.

Some labour leaders, such as Christian Smalls, whose activism led in March to Amazon's first labour-organised warehouse at Staten Island, or UK transport union boss Mick Lynch, have even emerged as social media stars.

Encouraged by the union-friendly Biden administration, U.S. petitions for a vote to see whether employees want to unionise rose 58% from a year earlier to 1,892 in the nine months to June 30, the National Labor Relations Board said this month.

Among them are workers at Starbucks and Chipotle, while tech employees are becoming more vocal about pay and conditions. Yet current U.S. law still gives employers scope to avoid offering contracts with legally binding terms, labour experts say.

"In this country, to get from not having a union all the way to having a union contract is an incredibly difficult journey," said Lane Windham, associate director of Georgetown University's labor center.

Germany's biggest union IG Metall is pushing this year for an 8% pay rise, a marked shift from its recent focus on job security. In Britain, where airport staff, lawyers, teachers, medics, postal, telecom and rail workers are eyeing action, the Trades Union Congress cites a surge in traffic to its "find a union" web page.

What such trends amount to remains to be seen. But governments are taking notice.

South Korea this month condemned as "illegal" a strike at Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering 042660.KS (DSME) and warned of intervention to break the bid by some 100 subcontractors to secure a 30% pay rise.

In contrast, Germany's centre-left coalition, fearing a looming energy crisis will trigger social unrest, has opened consultations with employers and trade unions over ways to shield households from rising inflation.

"The goal is to pull in as many stakeholders as possible so they can tell people they are doing all they can," political analyst Gero Neugebauer said.

ETUI's Vandaele said he was watching for a potential "demonstration effect" where recent transport strikes inspire industrial action by public sector or healthcare workers.

Some governments and central banks are urging wage moderation, warning that overly generous wage rounds could trigger a wage-price spiral pushing inflation even higher.

But with wage gains lagging headline inflation rate driven by food and energy prices, that argument has little traction with labour leaders.

"The risk is not inflationary wage pressures," said the ITUC's Burrow. "The fact that working people cannot participate in the economy to extent they want, even for basics like energy and food in some cases, is fuelling a slump in the economy."

Source: Reuters

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Devin

Markets continue to be very quiet in Asian session today. Investors are clearly holding their bets ahead of tomorrow's FOMC rate hike. Dollar is a softer one together with Yen and Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar is firmer together with Aussie. Euro and Sterling are mixed. Generally speaking, most major pairs and crosses are still stuck inside last week's range.

Technically, some attention remains on whether Sterling could build up more upside momentum. Levels to watch include 0.8456 minor support in EUR/GBP and 165.13 minor resistance in GBP/JPY. Additionally, 1.1774 minor resistance in GBP/CHF would be used as a gauge to determine buying in the Pound. Break there will complete a double bottom pattern, and set the stage for a stronger near term rebound at least. Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_1

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_1

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.22%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.43%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.60%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0077 at 0.214. Overnight, DOW rose 0.28%. S&P 500 rose 0.13%. NASDAQ dropped -0.43%. 10-year yield rose 0.037 to 2.820.

BoJ minutes: Board members spoke of importance of wage increases

In the minutes of June meeting, BoJ board said price rises have been broadening. But massive support is still needed for the economy while uncertainty surrounding the outlook was "extremely high".

"Many members spoke about the importance of wage increases from the perspective of achieving the BoJ's price target in a sustained and stable fashion."

"Japan must create a resilient economy at which consumption continues to rise even when companies raise prices," one board member said.

"The BOJ must maintain monetary easing until wage hikes become a trend, and help Japan achieve the bank's price target sustainably and stably," another member said.

Bitcoin and Ethereum stay bearish as rebound lost momentum

Bitcoin dips notably this week, following overall risk sentiment. Overall outlook stays bearish, with price actions from 17575 low displaying clear corrective structure. Upside of the recovery was also capped below 25083 support turned resistance. Rejection by 55 day EMA is also another bearish sign. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 32368 to 17575 from 24264 at 15121. Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_2

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_2

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_3

Ethereum's corresponding rebound from 878.50 low was relatively stronger, as it's support by medium term calling channel line. Yet, upside was also limited below 1674.60 support turned resistance. Thus, outlook is staying bearish for now. Break of 1316.80 minor support should resume larger down trend through 878.50 low. Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_4

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_4

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_5

On the data front

Japan corporate price index rose 2.0% yoy in June, matched expectation. Later in the day, US will release consumer confidence, house price index and new home sales.

AUD/USD Daily Report

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.6680 resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6967) will pave the way to 0.7282 resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 0.6877 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6680 low. Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_6

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_6

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it's a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_7

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets_7

Source: ActionForex

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Damon

Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals.

BTC's price has rallied roughly 25% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2021 high of $69,000. 3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_1

3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_1

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The recovery seems modest, however, and carries bearish continuation risks due to prevailing macroeconomic headwinds (rate hike, inflation, etc.) and the collapse of many high-profile crypto firms such as Three Arrows Capital, Terra and others.

But some widely tracked indicators paint a different scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin's downside prospects from current price levels are minimal.

That big "oversold" bounce

The first sign of Bitcoin's macro bottom comes from its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

Notably, BTC's weekly RSI became "oversold" after dropping below 30 in the week of June 13. This is the first time the RSI has slipped into the oversold region since December 2018. Interestingly, Bitcoin had ended its bear market rally in tha same month and rallied over 340% in the next six months to $14,000.

In another instance, Bitcoin's weekly RSI dropped toward 30 (if not below) in the week beginning March 9, 2020. That also coincided with BTC's price bottoming below $4,000 and thereafter rallying to $69,000 by November 2021, as shown below. 3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_2

3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_2

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring RSI-market bottom relationship. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price has rebounded similarly since June 18, opening the door to potentially repeat its history of parabolic rallies after an "oversold" RSI signal.

Bitcoin NUPL jumps above zero

Another sign of a potential Bitcoin macro bottom comes from its net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator.

NUPL is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. It is represented as a ratio, wherein a reading above zero means investors are in profit. The higher the number, the more investors are in profit.

Related: Bitcoin must close above $21.9K to avoid fresh BTC price crash — trader

On July 21, the Bitcoin NUPL climbed above zero when the price wobbled around $22,000. Historically, such a flip has followed up with major BTC price rallies. The chart below illustrates the same. 3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_3

3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_3

BTC/USD versus NUPL performance since 2009. Source: CryptoQuant

Mining profitability

The third sign of Bitcoin forming a macro bottom comes from another on-chain indicator called the Puell Multiple.

The Puell Multiple examines mining profitability and its impact on market prices. The indicator does it by measuring a ratio of daily coin issuance (in USD) and the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (in USD). 3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_4

3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'_4

Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: Glassnode

A strong Puell Multiple reading shows that mining profitability is high compared to the yearly average, suggesting miners would liquidate their Bitcoin treasury to maximize revenue. As a result, a higher Puell Multiple is known for coinciding with macro tops.

Conversely, a lower Puell Multiple reading means the miners' current profitability is below the yearly average.

Thus, rigs with break-even or below-zero revenue from mining Bitcoin will risk shutting down, giving up market share to more competitive miners. The ousting of weaker miners from the Bitcoin network has historically reduced selling pressure.

Interestingly, the Puelle Multiple reading as of July 25 is in the green box and similar to levels observed during the March 2020 crash, as well as 2018 and 2015 price bottoms.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: cointelegraph

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Owen Li

China's economic recovery gained momentum in July as business activities resumed and confidence improved, despite disruptions from sporadic Covid outbreaks across the country.

That's the outlook based on Bloomberg's aggregate index of eight early indicators for this month. The overall gauge was 5, a level indicating the economy is heating up. That was unchanged from June, which was revised up from the neutral level after data showed manufacturing started growing again and services expanded faster than in May. China's Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes_1

China's Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes_1

Small business confidence improved on stronger expectations and better credit conditions, according to Standard Chartered Plc., which surveys more than 500 smaller firms each month. Overall production remained robust, while construction activity picked up thanks to policy support, the firm's economists Hunter Chan and Ding Shuang wrote in a report.

However, activity in July "failed to accelerate," with readings normalising from the recovery in June, they wrote, adding that "sporadic Covid outbreaks in provinces including Shandong, Guangdong and Shanghai may have disrupted activity" labor-intensive smaller and medium-sized industrial companies.

The center of China's covid outbreak has shifted over the last month, with cases low in Shanghai and surrounding provinces but rising elsewhere, with some new lockdowns and restrictions being imposed. The eastern province of Anhui, Xi'an, home to the famed Terracotta Warriors, and manufacturing hub Wuxi all imposed curbs during the month. Lanzhou, the capital of Gansu province, is in lockdown and on Monday Shenzhen put factories in a "closed loop" production system to try and control an outbreak. China's Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes_2

China's Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes_2

Adding to the virus concerns, China's property market downturn has yet to show any signs of bottoming out. Home sales continued declining in the first three weeks of July in the top four cities in China, although the fall was at a slower pace. The housing market has been in a slump for a year, with prices and home purchases falling, developers defaulting and now a growing number of people refusing to pay their mortgages on properties that haven't been delivered by cash-strapped builders.

Those problems are affecting the industrial sector. Although there was a fall in stockpiles of rebar, which is used in construction, that was accompanied by a further drop in steel output in July.

The car market improved thanks to the relaxation of Covid restrictions and a government push to boost sales. In May, China halved the purchase tax on some low-emission passenger vehicles and the government is expediting a study about extending purchase tax exemptions for electric cars and examining ways of boosting car sales in rural areas.

External demand likely stayed resilient in July, providing continued support for China's economy after the record trade surplus in June. South Korean exports, a leading indicator for global trade, rose 14.5% in the first 20 days of July from a year earlier, despite concerns about a global recession that may dampen demand.

However, that data showed that Chinese demand for imports continued to slow, indicating the lingering effects of the slowdown in the second quarter.

China's Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes_3

This month, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signaled the government would be flexible on the official growth target and reiterated caution about excessive stimulus, arguing that the economy was showing initial signs of recovery from Covid outbreaks. Slightly higher or lower growth rates were acceptable as long as employment is relatively sufficient, household incomes grow and prices are stable, Li told global business leaders hosted by the World Economic Forum last week.

Many economists expect China will likely miss its economic growth target of about 5.5% this year by a significant margin. That would be the first time that has happened – the government didn't set a target in 2020, during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak, and only missed it by 0.2 percentage point in 1998.

Early Indicators

Bloomberg Economics generates the overall activity reading by aggregating a three-month weighted average of the monthly changes of eight indicators, which are based on business surveys or market prices.

Source: Bloomberg

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Owen Li

After three years of repeated attempts to get her digital national identity card, Rubina - a woman from the Pakistani city of Karachi - decided to take her battle to court, winning a landmark victory.

Until then, Pakistanis had not been able to get the Computerized National Identity Card (CNIC) unless they presented their father's ID card - an impossibility for many people, including those like Rubina who were raised by single mothers.

The card is vital to vote, access government benefits including public schools and healthcare, open a bank account or apply for jobs.

"I would turn up there, and be told to bring my father's card," said Rubina, 21.

"My mother raised me after my father abandoned us soon after my birth - how could I furnish his identity papers then?"

Rubina's frustration drove her to file a petition at the high court in Sindh province, which in November ruled that the government agency that oversees the CNIC must issue her a card based on her mother's citizenship record.

For Rubina, the decision meant she could apply to take over her mother's job as an attendant in the state education department when her mother retired.

More widely, her case ends the effective exclusion of children of single mothers from the ID card scheme, said Haris Khaleeq, secretary-general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), a nonprofit.

"Without a CNIC, neither can any public service be accessed, nor can any banking transaction be conducted," he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

"In short, one has no rights at all as a citizen."

The agency in charge of the CNIC, the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), has said it is striving to reach people who have so far been excluded.

"The government has a clear policy that people who are supposed to be registered in the database will not be excluded," said Salman Sufi, head of the prime minister's Strategic Reforms Unit, which oversees the implementation of federal policy.

'LIKE ALIENS'

Established in 2000, NADRA maintains the nation's biometric database, and says it has issued some 120 million CNICs to 96% of adults in the nation of about 212 million people.

Each card comprises a 13-digit unique ID, a photograph of the person, their signature, and a microchip that contains their iris scans and fingerprints.

Yet millions of people in Pakistan, including women, transgender people, migrant workers and nomadic communities are still without a CNIC.

More than 1 billion people globally have no way of proving their identity, according to the World Bank.

While governments across the world are adopting digital ID systems they say are improving governance, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights has said they exclude marginalised groups, and should not be a prerequisite for accessing social protection schemes.

A study of migrant workers in Karachi by HRCP last year showed that women were more likely not to have a CNIC, putting them at risk of destitution if their husband died or left the family.

Children whose parents are not registered are especially vulnerable, as they cannot get birth certificates, and are at greater risk of trafficking and forced labour, HRCP said.

It has recommended more mobile registration units and female staff to help register vulnerable groups, as well as simpler processes and less stringent documentation requirements, which also make it harder for immigrants to apply.

Only half of some 2.8 million Afghan refugees who have lived in Pakistan for decades are registered with the government. There is also a sizable population of unregistered Bengali, Nepali, and Rohingya immigrants in Pakistan.

"A majority of the Bengali-origin Pakistanis do not have CNICs and are living like aliens and illegal migrants in their own country," Sheikh Feroz, a community leader, told a recent rally to demand CNICs.

NADRA - which has also helped set up digital ID systems in Bangladesh, Kenya and Nigeria - has said it has a dedicated registration department "especially for women, minorities, transgender and unregistered persons".

The agency said it had several women-only centres, particularly in border provinces, "to overcome the socio-cultural barriers of women hesitating to deal with male staff", and prioritises senior citizens and the disabled.

"Everyone will be provided an opportunity to get registered. No group based on their ethnicity, race or religion will be excluded," said Sufi, from the Strategic Reforms Unit.

Data Theft

For those who have a CNIC, privacy violations are a risk.

The CNIC database is accessed by about 300 public and private service providers, from the tax department to the election commission to mobile service providers.

There have been several data breaches, which points to inadequate security, said Nighat Dad, a lawyer and executive director at the Digital Rights Foundation, a nonprofit.

"Women often complain of harassment after their personal information is leaked and is weaponised to blackmail them," she said.

"Since there is no data protection law, there is no accountability even when personal data such as phone numbers are leaked," she added.

Data breaches that expose personal data are particularly risky for vulnerable groups such as journalists, activists and religious and ethnic minorities, said Haroon Baloch, senior programme manager at Bytes for All, a digital rights group.

"Citizens are not aware of the use of their biometric data," he said. "The personal data attached with the biometric IDs can be misused, with serious privacy implications not just for the individual, but also their family."

NADRA officials have rejected accusations that the data has been compromised, saying the database has a multi-layer security system "which makes hacking impossible".

The government will roll out a data privacy policy "very soon", said Sufi, with adequate safeguards for data protection, and "punishment in case of breach of privacy or data theft."

For Rubina, who could not even get a COVID-19 vaccine without a CNIC, simply getting the ID is half the battle won.

"I am happy that others will not suffer like me," she said.

Source: Reuters

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Rock-Solid Bund

Bund resilience is more evidence of the market's recessionary mood

1% in sight, with help from Russia and the U.S.

Today's events and market view

Source: ING

Russia/Ukraine Grain Export Deal Promises Major Benefits for Poor Countries.

Implications for Africa

Uncertainties

Source: theconversation

Workers Seize Their Moment to Shift the Balance of Power

The Fissured Workplace

Social media heroes?

Source: Reuters

Dollar, Yen and Franc Soft in Quiet Cautious Markets

BoJ minutes: Board members spoke of importance of wage increases

Bitcoin and Ethereum stay bearish as rebound lost momentum

On the data front

AUD/USD Daily Report

Source: ActionForex

3 Signs Bitcoin Price is Forming a Potential 'Macro Bottom'

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

That big "oversold" bounce

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring RSI-market bottom relationship. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin NUPL jumps above zero

BTC/USD versus NUPL performance since 2009. Source: CryptoQuant

Mining profitability

Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: Glassnode

Source: cointelegraph

China's Economy Strengthens in July Despite Housing, Covid Woes

Early Indicators

Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan's Digital ID Card Locks Out Millions

'LIKE ALIENS'

Data Theft

Source: Reuters

Risk Disclosure