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The S&P 500 Index on Monday rose +0.67%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index closed up +0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed +0.93%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH25) rose +0.62%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH25) rose +0.84%.
Stocks on Monday rallied on strength in tech and chip stocks. Stocks were also boosted by the fact that Congress passed a stop-gap funding bill last Friday and averted a US government shutdown, which would have been negative for the US economy. The stop-gap bill funded the government through mid-March 2025.
Stocks overcame early weakness tied to higher T-note yields and weaker-than-expected US economic reports.
Monday's Nov US durable goods report was weaker than expected, although capital goods orders were a bit stronger than expected. Nov US durable goods orders fell -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3%, although Oct was revised higher to +0.8% from +0.3%. Nov durable goods orders ex-transportation fell -0.1%, weaker than expectations of +0.3%. Nov capital goods orders ex defense and aircraft, a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1%.
Monday's Nov US new home sales report of +5.9% to 664,000 was weaker than expectations for an increase to 669,000.
Monday's Dec Conference Board US consumer confidence index of -8.1 to 104.7 was substantially weaker than expectations for an increase to 113.2.
The markets are discounting the chances at 9% for a -25 bp rate cut at the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Last Friday's stop-gap bill did not contain the debt ceiling suspension that President-Elect Trump wanted, meaning that Republicans in the first half of 2025 will have to increase, suspend, or abolish the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling will now be reinstated at midnight on January 2, 2025, at the then-current level of debt. The Treasury will be able to use extraordinary measures to stay under the debt ceiling until the so-called “X-date” in spring or summer 2025, when the Treasury will begin to default on its obligations unless Congress takes action on the debt ceiling.
Overseas stock markets on Monday closed mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 on Monday closed down -0.19%, adding to the overall loss of -1.9% seen last Thursday and Friday. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed -0.50%, the third consecutive session loss. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.19%, snapping the string of six consecutive session losses.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH25) on Monday fell by -13 ticks, consolidating mildly above last Thursday's 6-1/2 month low. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +6.4 bp to 4.587%, and edged to a new 6-1/2 month high of 4.597%. T-note prices traded lower after Congress last Friday averted a US government shutdown that would have been negative for the US economy. T-note prices were also undercut by supply overhang as the Treasury on Monday sold $69 billion of 2-year T-notes. The Treasury will sell $70 billion of 5-year T-notes on Tuesday and $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday. T-note prices fell on Monday despite the weaker-than-expected US economic reports.
European government bond yields rose after ECB President Lagarde said that ECB members remain alert to lingering price pressures in the services sector but remain confident that the CPI is nearing the ECB’s target.
The 10-year German bund yield rose +3.8 bp to 2.323%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.6 bp to 4.546.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its January 30 policy meeting and a 9% chance for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
US Stock Movers
Several of the Magnificent 7 stocks showed strength Monday and helped to lead the broad market higher. Tesla and Meta Platforms showed gains of more than +2%, and Alphabet rose +1.54%.
Chip stocks were leaders in the Nasdaq 100 index on Monday, with GLOBAFOUNDARIES and Broadcom showing gains of more than +5%. AMD and Microchip Technology showed gains of more than +4%.
Qualcomm rallied +3.47% on Monday, and Arm Holdings Plc fell by -3.85%, after Qualcomm won in court against Arm's claim of a chip technology license breach when Qualcomm bought a start-up in 2021.
Xerox rallied more than +12% after news that Xerox agreed to buy laser printer maker Lexmark International in a deal worth $1.5 billion.
Playa Hotels & Resorts rose by +28% after news of an exclusivity agreement with Hyatt Hotels Corp to negotiate the possible acquisition of Playa, which owns or runs beachfront and all-inclusive resorts in Mexico, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic. Hyatt closed the down by -1.13%.
Crypto-stocks traded lower due to the -2.7% sell-off in bitcoin fell by -8.8% on Monday, while Riot Platforms fell more than -5%. Coinbase fell more than -3%.
Earnings Reports (12/24/2024)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
More news from BarchartTech stocks gained late Monday afternoon, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) adding 1% and the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) rising 2.5%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor index jumped 3%.
In corporate news, MicroStrategy acquired 5,262 bitcoins for $561 million in cash from Dec. 16-22. The shares fell 8.5%.
Meta intends to launch Ray-Ban smart glasses with displays as early as H2 2025, the Financial Times reported. Meta shares added 2.5%.
Alphabet's Google is set to be declared guilty of violating Japan's Antimonopoly Act by the country's antitrust watchdog, Nikkei and other Japanese news agencies reported. Alphabet shares rose 1.7%.
Xerox shares surged 13% after the company agreed to buy laser printer and imaging products manufacturer Lexmark International for $1.5 billion, including debt and other liabilities.
Tech stocks were higher Monday afternoon, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) adding 0.9% and the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) rising 1.9%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor index climbed 2.9%.
In corporate news, Xerox shares rose over 8% after the company said it will buy laser printer and imaging products manufacturer Lexmark International in a deal worth $1.5 billion, including debt and other liabilities.
Cyngn shares surged 51% after the company said it has closed a $20 million offering of common units.
Rumble shares soared 102% after it said it agreed to a $775 million investment from cryptocurrency firm Tether.
US equity indexes traded mixed around midday Monday while government bond yields rose and crude oil dropped as the market started a holiday-shortened week.
The S&P 500 was up 0.2% at 5,944.8 and the Nasdaq rose 0.6% to 19,687.9, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.3% lower at 42,725.7.
Communication services and technology led the gainers, while the consumer staples sector was the biggest decliner.
In economic news, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's monthly National Activity Index increased to a reading of minus 0.12 in November, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg following a minus 0.50 reading in October. The three-month moving average still fell to minus 0.31 from minus 0.27.
US new-home sales accelerated to a 664,000 annual rate in November from an upwardly revised 627,000 rate in October, lower than the 670,000 rate expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Home sales were still up 8.7% from November 2023.
Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said the less-than-expected new-home sales increase in November came "as the rebound in sales in the South, where hurricanes weighed on October sales, was less than expected."
"Looking ahead to 2025, we look for a small improvement in new home sales based on our forecast for a small decline in mortgage rates and a solid performance for the economy and labor market," Houten said in a note.
In company news, Honda Motor and Nissan Motor said Monday they have signed a memorandum of understanding to discuss the possibility of a merger and create a joint holding company. In a separate statement, Honda and Nissan signed a memorandum of understanding with Mitsubishi Motors to explore the possibility of Mitsubishi's participation, involvement and synergy sharing about the business integration. Shares of Honda advanced 11% around midday.
Xerox Holdings shares rose 7.2% after the company said it agreed to acquire Lexmark International from Ninestar, PAG Asia Capital, and Shanghai Shouda Investment Center for $1.5 billion, including assumed liabilities. The deal is expected to close in H2 2025.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.57%. The two year-rate was up 2.8 basis points to 4.34%.
The US Dollar Index was up 0.5% to 108.1.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $68.83 per barrel.
Gold was down 0.6% to $2,629.70 an ounce, and silver rose 1% to $30.27 per ounce.
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