Russian Rouble, Stocks Surge After Trump-putin Call

On a normal day in FX markets, yesterday's much-higher-than-expected US inflation print should have left the US Dollar (USD) stronger across the board and risk assets under pressure. That was the case for a few hours before the headlines hit that Trump had had a 90-minute call with Putin to discuss an end to the fighting in Ukraine. For now, financial markets are overlooking what a shift to US isolationism would mean for European security. In Brussels yesterday, new US Defence Secretary Pete Hesgeth said that US troops would not be part of any peace-keeping force in Ukraine and that such a force would not be protected by NATO's Article 5, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

DXY to move towards 107.00/30

"Instead, financial markets are focusing on the benefits of improved confidence in the region and less disruption to global energy supplies. Here crude oil and European natural gas prices came off sharply yesterday – a good news story for global growth and a mild dollar negative. At the same time, there is a little optimism emerging in Chinese asset markets, where local tech stocks are doing a little better post the DeepSeek news and once again expectations are building that Chinese policymakers might have some new support measures to announce when they next meet in early March. This has seen the onshore USD/CNY cross back under 7.30 again."

"The above all sounds positive for global growth expectations and could encourage some paring back of short positions in commodity and EM currencies. What is limiting that correction, however, is the ongoing threat of tariffs. The prospect of 'reciprocal' tariffs is still hanging over FX markets this week and apparently Trump signs his next batch of executive orders at 19CET today. The market will be focusing on whether those tariffs only hit the likes of India, Brazil and Korea – which are among the higher tariff regimes. And also whether these tariffs are again back-dated – providing, for example, a month for the tariffs to be negotiated away."

"Away from geopolitics and tariffs, today's US focus is on the initial jobless claims and PPI. Any upside surprise to PPI – and what it means for the core PCE deflator released on 28 February – is a mild dollar positive. But for now, we slightly favour a move in DXY towards 107.00/30, with outside risk to the 106.35 area."

Source: FXSTREET

EUR/USD climbs above 1.0440 as market sentiment turns favorable for risky assets, with Russia and Ukraine agreeing to start peace negotiations.

Investors brace for high uncertainty as US Trump is poised to impose reciprocal tariffs.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady for longer.

EUR/USD jumps to near 1.0440 in Thursday’s European trading session. The major currency pair strengthens as investors’ risk appetite has increased significantly due to the constructive development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since both countries agreed to begin peace talks. 

Market sentiment turned cheerful after United States (US) President Donald Trump confirmed that he had a “lengthy and highly productive” conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who agreed to start peace negotiations with Ukraine.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on Wednesday that Ukraine should stop seeking membership into the NATO alliance and reconsider its goals of reclaiming territory seized by Russia.

A constructive attempt by US President Trump to end the three-year-long bloodshed has strengthened the appeal of risk-sensitive assets, such as the Euro (EUR). The Russia-Ukraine truce would help fix the Eurozone energy crisis and the global supply chain. Such a scenario will be favorable for the Euro. 

Still, investors doubt that the Euro is unlikely to hold onto its recovery move due to weak Eurozone economic performance and firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will extend the monetary easing cycle as inflationary pressures are on track to return sustainably to 2% target by the year.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD moves higher while investors question Euro’s strength

Market participants worry that the Euro’s recovery could fizzle out as US President Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs before meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday, CNBC reported.

Trump is expected to increase the tariffs on imports of European vehicles to 10%  from the current 2.5% levy. The US is the second-largest market for the European Union (EU)  automobile exports after the United Kingdom (UK). Over 20% of total EU auto exports were taken by the US in 2023, according to ACEA.

The impact of reciprocal tariffs will be negative for the Eurozone economy and would lead to a trade war between Europe and the US. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned on Tuesday that the EU would act to “safeguard its economic interests” and is ready for “proportionate countermeasures.” Her comments came after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum and said these tariffs “will not go unanswered”.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has faced a sharp sell-off after positive headlines on Russia-Ukraine truce talks as investors showed back to safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declined to 107.50. 

However, the outlook for the US Dollar remains firm as the hotter-than-expected  Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January has provided enough justification to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to hold interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for a longer period.

Analysts at Macquarie have reinforced their call that the Fed will remain on “long hold in 2025” and no change in the fed funds rate on “January’s hot CPI report.” They initially guided their long-hold call after the release of the strong employment report for January, which was released on February 7.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD struggles to extend upside above 50-day EMA

EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Thursday. The major currency pair climbs above 1.0400 but continues to face pressure near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0424.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0177 and the round-level support of 1.0100 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

Source: FXSTREET

Source: TheGuardian

NZD/USD could explore the area around the psychological level of 0.5600.

The 14-day RSI remains below the 50 mark, strengthening the bearish sentiment.

The immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.5650 level.

The NZD/USD pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, trading near 0.5640 during European hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish market sentiment, with the pair remaining within a descending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays below the 50 mark, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Additionally, the NZD/USD pair remains under the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weak short-term momentum.

On the downside, the NZD/USD pair could explore the support region around the psychological level of 0.5600. A decisive break below this level could drive the pair toward 0.5516, its lowest point since October 2022, recorded on February 3. Further support lies near the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.5450.

To the upside, the NZD/USD pair's immediate resistance is at the nine-day EMA of 0.5650, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at 0.5670. A breakout above this critical resistance zone could ease the bearish bias, potentially pushing the pair toward its nine-week high of 0.5794, reached on January 24.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Source: FXSTREET

Source: Reuters

Officials work at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, Feb. 13. 

Korean stocks rose to the highest level in about three months Thursday, led by gains of tech and auto shares, on growing hopes for an exemption from U.S. tariffs. The local currency rose against the U.S. dollar.

The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) added 34.78 points, or 1.36 percent, to close at 2,583.17, extending a winning streak to a third session.

It marked the highest level since Nov. 4, 2024, when the index finished at 2,588.97.

Trade volume was heavy at 669.19 million shares worth 16.82 trillion won ($11.61 billion), with winners outnumbering losers 571 to 309.

Institutions bought a net 656.27 billion won worth of local shares, while foreign and retail investors sold a net 102.86 billion won and 601.93 billion won worth of shares, respectively.

The index opened higher and had risen further, though the U.S. data showing strong inflation led to speculation that the Federal Reserve would delay interest rate cuts.

Investors welcomed the news that U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes President Donald Trump is considering exemptions to reciprocal tariffs on the auto and pharmaceutical industries.

Eyes are also on talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on ways of ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

In Seoul, tech and auto shares led the upturn of the index.

Market bellwether Samsung Electronics added 0.18 percent to 55,900 won, and chip giant SK hynix surged 1.81 percent to 202,500 won.

Leading electric vehicle (EV) battery maker LG Energy Solution soared 3.1 percent to 349,000 won.

No. 1 carmaker Hyundai Motor went up 4.24 percent to 206,500 won, and its sister affiliate Kia jumped 3.27 percent to 94,700 won.

Top steelmaker POSCO Holdings rose 4.34 percent to 240,500 won following recent sharp losses.

Major bio shares traded mixed. Leading bio firm Samsung Biologics climbed 1.3 percent to 1,172,000 won, while Celltrion lost 0.11 percent to 178,500 won.

Among decliners, leading portal operator Naver lost 2 percent to 220,500 won, and Kakao, the operator of the country's top mobile messenger, tumbled 3.81 percent to 40,400 won.

The local currency was quoted at 1,447.5 won against the greenback at 3:30 p.m., up 5.9 won from the previous session.

Bond prices, which move inversely to yields, closed higher. The yield on three-year Treasurys shed 2 basis points to 2.631 percent, and the return on the benchmark five-year government bonds fell 1.2 basis points to end at 2.732 percent. 

Source: Koreatimes