Russian Wheat Exports Expected to Decline, Fueling Supply Concerns — Market Talk

Wheat futures rise amid expectations of tight world supply in thin holidays trade. Russian exports of wheat are likely to decline sharply in the 2025/26 season, Black Sea grain consultancy SovEcon projects. The forecast, released earlier this week, calls for 36.4 million metric tons of Russian exports, down from 43.7 million tons in the current season. "This reduction is attributed to lower carry-in stocks and a projected decrease in wheat production," SovEcon says, adding that domestic feed wheat consumptions in Russia has increased due to poor barley and corn harvests. On the CBOT, the March contract for wheat, soybeans and corn rise more than 1%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

Cotton futures are steady to 4 points higher so far on Thursday. The outside markets are mixed factors, with the US dollar index down 38 points and crude oil $0.19/barrel higher.

The Seam reported 441 bales of online sales on December 24 at an average price of 58.80 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were unchanged on Tuesday, at 20,113 bales of certified stocks. The Cotlook A Index was up 130 points on 12/24 at 79.60 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was cut by another 113 points last week to 55.09 cents/lb. It will be updated later today.

Mar 25 Cotton is at 68.78, unch

May 25 Cotton is at 69.88, unch

Jul 25 Cotton is at 70.89, up 4 points

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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Live cattle futures are posting $1.70 to $2.30 gains across the front months on Thursday. Cash trade has yet to begin this week, with bids of $190 reported so far. This morning’s Fed Cattle Exchange online auction from Central Stockyards showed no sale on the 1,036 head listed, with bids running $188-190. Feeder cattle futures are up $2.87 to $3.80 in the nearbys at midday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 4 cents from the day prior at $262.96 on December 23.

USDA wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the Thursday morning report. Choice boxes were up $3.84 to $319.82/cwt and Select 98 cents higher @ $287.73.

Dec 24 Live Cattle are at $192.500, up $1.700,

Feb 25 Live Cattle are at $189.450, up $2.075,

Apr 25 Live Cattle are at $191.850, up $2.300,

Jan 25 Feeder Cattle are at $258.725, up $2.875

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle are at $258.800, up $3.800

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle are at $259.350, up $3.500

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

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The wheat market is trading with gains on Thursday’s midday across all three markets. Chicago SRW futures are up 8 to 9 cents on the session. KC HRW contracts are 9 to 10 cents lower across the nearby contracts. MPLS spring wheat futures are 6 to 7 cents in the green on midday.

Algeria purchased 1.17 MMT of wheat in a tender on Tuesday, revised up from the initially reported 630,000 MT. Russia’s IKAR estimates the country’s wheat exports for 2025/26 to fall to 41 MMT, with expectations of the county’s market share to drop from 25% to 20%.

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.43 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.54, up 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.53 3/4, up 10 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.61 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.96, up 6 1/2 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.03 3/4, up 6 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

• Navigating Uncertainty: What I'm Watching In The Grain Markets To Wrap Up 2024
• Merchandiser Insights: Understanding What Basis Moves Are Saying About Supply And Demand In Grains
• Are Soybeans As Bearish As Advertised?
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Lean hog futures are trading mixed so far on Thursday, with contracts up 12 cents to 35 cents lower at midday. The national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $79.10 on Thursday morning. The CME Lean Hog Index was reported at $84.35 on December 19, up 14 cents from the previous day.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout value was $1.31 higher in the Thursday morning report at $95.93 per cwt. The picnic and belly primals were reported lower, with the rest up $1.72 to $3.78.

Feb 25 Hogs are at $84.375, unch,,

Apr 25 Hogs are at $89.300, up $0.125

May 25 Hogs is at $92.900, down $0.350,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

• Where are Animal Protein Prices Heading as the Offseason for Demand Approaches?
• Where are Animal Proteins Prices Heading in Q3 and Beyond?
• Can the Meats Rally During the Peak Season in 2024?

The soybean is trading with double digit 10 to 15 cent gains so far on Thursday as the meal rally is providing product support. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price is up 11 1/2 cents at $9.35 1/2. Soymeal futures are $11.80/ton higher at midday. Soy Oil futures are showing 44 point losses so far on Thursday.

Forecasts for the next week are calling for near normal rains in most of Brazil, with the Southern portion as well as Argentina seeing dryness creep in. The first week plus of January is seeing some extended dryness in those parts. Meal specs are covering shorts with the drier weather outlook.

The weekly Export Sales report will be released on Friday due to the holiday.

Stats Canada showed the November canola crush data at 1.019 MMT, up 12.2% from the year prior. December soybean exports out of Brazil are expected to total 1.62 MMT according to ANEC, even with last week’s estimate.

Jan 25 Soybeans are at $9.86 1/2, up 11 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $9.35 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 Soybeans are at $9.95, up 13 3/4 cents,

Jul 25 Soybeans are at $10.15 1/2, up 14 1/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

• Navigating Uncertainty: What I'm Watching In The Grain Markets To Wrap Up 2024
• Merchandiser Insights: Understanding What Basis Moves Are Saying About Supply And Demand In Grains
• Are Soybeans As Bearish As Advertised?
• The "Yeah, but" Problem: What’s Holding The Grain Markets Back?