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Biotech giant Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. REGN is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 4, 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.78 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $11.60 per share.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Quote

Dupixent Fuels Growth for REGN

A significant chunk of Regeneron’s revenues comes from the sale of its lead drug, Eylea, which is approved for various ophthalmology indications (neovascular age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema [DME] and macular edema, among others). Eylea was developed in collaboration with pharma giant Bayer.

While Regeneron records net product sales of Eylea in the United States, Bayer does the same outside the United States. The company also records its share of profits/losses in connection with Eylea sales outside the country.

Eylea’s sales have been under pressure in the recent quarters due to competition from Vabysmo.

To counter the decline in Eylea sales, Regeneron developed a higher dose of the drug. The initial uptake of Eylea HD is encouraging as Eylea patients transition to the higher dose.

Earlier this month, Regeneron provided business and pipeline updates at the 43rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Regeneron reported that, on a combined basis, Eylea 2 mg and Eylea HD maintained their leadership position in the anti-VEGF category leader in 2024 in the United States.

On a preliminary basis, Eylea and Eylea HD recorded $6 billion in sales in 2024 in the United States. Sales for the fourth quarter totaled $1.5 billion in the United States.

On a standalone basis, Eylea sales totaled $1.19 billion in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2024. Eylead HD’s net product sales were $305 million for the quarter in the United States.

The total Eylea franchise sales in the United States for the fourth quarter were favorably impacted by approximately $85 million as a result of higher wholesaler inventory levels for Eylea, partially offset by lower wholesaler inventory levels for Eylea HD.

Apart from Eylea, profits from asthma drug Dupixent’s sales are a primary growth driver for REGN. Regeneron has a collaboration agreement with Sanofi for drugs like Dupixent and Kevzara. While Sanofi records sales, Regeneron registers its share of profits/losses in connection with the global sales of the aforementioned drugs.

Sanofi recorded Dupixent sales of €3.46 billion for the fourth quarter, up 16%, driven by continued strong prescription trends in atopic dermatitis, asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis, eosinophilic esophagitis and prurigo nodularis. Hence, Regeneron has likely earned incremental profits from Dupixent in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, sales growth was affected by fewer business days in the fourth quarter compared to prior periods and a year-end gross-to-net adjustment.

Meanwhile, Regeneron is also looking to diversify its revenue base to reduce its dependence on Eylea for top-line growth and build an oncology franchise, which currently comprises Libtayo.

Growth in Libtayo’s sales has also boosted the top line in recent quarters. Libtayo sales are being driven by growth in demand for non-melanoma skin indications, coupled with increased utilization in both monotherapy and chemotherapy combination settings in lung cancer. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Libtayo’s sales is currently pegged at $339 million.

REGN is currently working to expand Libatyo’s label, in combination with other compounds, in additional indications.

REGN’s oncology franchise received a boost with the European Commission's approval of odronextamab for treating adult patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) follicular lymphoma (FL) or R/R diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after two or more lines of systemic therapy. The drug has been approved under the brand name Ordspono.

Other Updates From REGN

Investors will also look for key pipeline updates from Regeneron apart from the top and bottom-line numbers.

REGN filed an application with the FDA for the use of the Eylea HD pre-filled syringe (PFS). A potential approval and launch are expected by mid-2025.

An application to expand Dupixent’s label to include chronic spontaneous urticaria is under review in the United States, with a target action date of April 18, 2025.

What Our Model Predicts for REGN

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Regeneron this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for REGN is +0.22%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $11.60 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $11.63 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

REGN’s Earnings Surprise History

The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 5.69%. In the last reported quarter, REGN beat on earnings by 6.04%.

REGN’s Share Price Performance

Regeneron’s shares have lost 28.8% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 11.3%.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Sarepta Therapeutics SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +18.55% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SRPT beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 981.21%.

Rocket Pharmaceuticals RCKT has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank #2.

RCKT’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and matched the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 8.33%.

Amgen AMGN has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

AMGN beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 4.10%. Amgen is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb. 4, 2025.

Zacks Investment Research

We expect Amgen AMGN to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 4, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 9.20%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $8.84 billion and $5.01 per share, respectively.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Factors to Consider for Amgen

Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha, Prolia, Kyprolis and Blincyto, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to continue to decline due to higher rebates to support expanded access.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Blincyto sales is pegged at $1.18 billion, $551.0 million, $413.0 million and $339.0 million, respectively.

Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha and Evenity sales are pegged at $1.05 billion, $542.9 million, $418.3 million and $316.3 million, respectively.

In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth driven by new patient volume growth.

Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $274.4 million and $102.9 million, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tezspire and Tavneos is $285 million and $93 million, respectively.

The U.S. launch of Imdelltra (tarlatamab), approved for pre-treated advanced small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in May 2024, is progressing well. The drug recorded sequential growth of 200% in the third quarter. The growth momentum is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter.

Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to flat volumes and declining prices. Otezla sales were soft in the last three reported quarters. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $611.0 million, while our estimate is $605.4 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $861.0 million, while our estimate is $874.5 million.

Sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, are likely to have pulled up the top line.

In the fourth quarter, Tepezza sales are expected to have been flat to down slightly on a sequential basis. In order to improve Tepezza sales, Amgen has been reorganizing and expanding its sales force to reach out to low clinical activity score (CAS) patients. Amgen expects to launch the drug in Japan, where it was recently approved, in 2025. An update is expected on the fourth-quarter conference call.

Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products are expected to have hurt the top line.

Adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the third quarter, consistent with historical trends. This is due to R&D costs being the highest in the fourth quarter.

Investors will look for updates on Amgen’s important pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity. In November 2024, Amgen announced the much-awaited 52-week top-line data from a phase II study on MariTide. The data from the double-blind dose-ranging study showed that in people who were obese or overweight but without type II diabetes, MariTide resulted in up to approximately 20% average weight loss over 52 weeks without reaching a weight loss plateau. However, the weight loss reduction was at the lower end of investor expectations of 20-25%, which hurt AMGN stock’s price.

AMGN’s Earnings Surprise History

This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.10%, on average.

Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote

Amgen’s stock has declined 10.6% in the past year compared with a decrease of 11.4% for the industry.

What Our Model Says for AMGN

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +3.15% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $5.16 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.01. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 currently.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Exelixis EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +2.99% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Exelixis’ stock has risen 48.9% in the past year. Exelixis beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. EXEL has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 26.52%, on average. Exelixis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 11.

Rocket Pharmaceuticals RCKT has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Rocket Pharmaceuticals’ stock has declined 63.8% in the past year. RCKT beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while delivering in-line numbers in the remaining quarter. On average, RCKT delivered an earnings surprise of 8.33% in the last four quarters.

Denali Therapeutics DNLI has an Earnings ESP of +19.30% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Denali’s stock has risen 34.1% in the past year. DNLI missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while beating on the remaining occasion. On average, Denali witnessed an earnings surprise of 0.47% in the last four quarters.

Zacks Investment Research