Soybean Futures Decline Amid Trade Concerns, Weather Relief in Argentina

Wheat futures fell to $5.82 per bushel, retreating from a 3-1/2 month high of $5.92, amid renewed concerns over potential trade disputes, which could weaken demand for US farm products.

President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries fueled market anxiety, as traders worried about possible retaliation affecting crop sales.

While US tariffs on China did not include agricultural products, uncertainty surrounding trade policies pressured grain markets.

Additionally, traders monitored cold weather in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, due to potential crop damage.

Moscow’s wheat export quota suggested that shipments could fall significantly next year, adding further uncertainty to global wheat supply.

The US Department of Agriculture is expected to provide an updated global supply and demand report soon, which could impact future price movements.

Brent crude oil futures traded added 0.5% to settle at $74.7 per barrel on Friday, after fresh sanctions targeted Iran's crude exports, but gains were limited by US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade dispute with China and the threat of further tariffs on other countries.

Despite these gains, the benchmark booked its third consecutive weekly decline, primarily due to escalating trade tensions initiated by President Trump's recent tariff announcements against China and other nations.

Analysts expressed concerns that these trade disputes could dampen global economic growth and, consequently, reduce oil demand.

Additionally, a significant increase in US crude inventories, as reported by the Energy Information Administration, signaled weaker domestic demand, further contributing to the week's downward pressure on oil prices.

WTI crude oil futures rose 0.5% to settle at $71 per barrel on Friday, after fresh sanctions targeted Iran's crude exports, but gains were limited by US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade dispute with China and the threat of further tariffs on other countries.

Despite these gains, the benchmark booked its third consecutive weekly decline, primarily due to escalating trade tensions initiated by President Trump's recent tariff announcements against China and other nations.

Analysts expressed concerns that these trade disputes could dampen global economic growth and, consequently, reduce oil demand.

Additionally, a significant increase in US crude inventories, as reported by the Energy Information Administration, signaled weaker domestic demand, further contributing to the week's downward pressure on oil prices.

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--The ICE Futures canola market saw a continuation of Thursday's rally on Friday, hitting its highest levels since November as tightening stocks and the need to ration demand provided support.

Statistics Canada reported canola stocks in the country as of Dec. 31 at 11.382 million tonnes, which compares with 14.087 million at the same time a year ago and marks the tightest level for this time of year since the drought year in 2021.

Weekly Canadian canola exports of 145,800 tonnes were down 29 per cent from the previous week, but year-to-date exports of 5.484 million tonnes were roughly double what moved by the same time in 2023-24.

Gains in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil provided underlying support, although soybeans and European rapeseed futures were weaker.

There were 67,509 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 66,363 contracts changed hands.

Spreading accounted for 49,868 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

 
           Price      Change 
Mar       656.80     up 6.60 
May       664.50     up 7.10 
Jul       669.10     up 7.10 
Nov       647.10     up 3.40 

Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

 
Months    Prices                            Volume 
Mar/May   6.50 under to 8.10 under          13,714 
Mar/Jul   10.30 under to 13.30 under         3,147 
Mar/Nov   10.40 over to 7.70 over              207 
Mar/Jan   7.20 over to 7.10 over                 5 
May/Jul   3.70 under to 5.30 under           5,655 
May/Nov   17.60 over to 15.90 over              11 
May/Jan   12.40 over                             1 
Jul/Nov   22.40 over to 17.80 over           2,098 
Nov/Jan   3.20 under to 4.80 under              86 
Jan/Mar   0.30 under                            10 
 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for March delivery gained 26.50 cents per million British thermal units, or 8.71% to $3.3090 per million British thermal units this week

• Largest one week net and percentage gain since the week ending Jan. 10, 2025
• Up two of the past three weeks
• Today it is down 9.90 cents or 2.90%
• Snaps a two session winning streak
• Today's settlement value is the fourth lowest this year
• Off 22.29% from its 52-week high of $4.258 hit Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025
• Up 110.10% from its 52-week low of $1.575 hit Tuesday, March 26, 2024
• Rose 79.16% from 52 weeks ago
• Off 22.29% from its 2025 settlement high of $4.258 hit Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025
• Up 8.71% from its 2025 settlement low of $3.044 hit Friday, Jan. 31, 2025
• Off 78.48% from its record high of $15.378 hit Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2005
• Year-to-date it is down 32.40 cents or 8.92%

All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.

Source: Dow Jones Market Data

Front Month Nymex Crude for March delivery lost $1.53 per barrel, or 2.11% to $71.00 this week

• Down for three consecutive weeks
• Down $6.88 or 8.83% over the last three weeks
• Largest three week net and percentage decline since the week ending Sept. 6, 2024
• Today it is up 39.00 cents or 0.55%
• Largest one day dollar and percentage gain since Monday, Feb. 3, 2025
• Snaps a three session losing streak
• Today's settlement value is the second lowest this year
• Off 18.31% from its 52-week high of $86.91 hit Friday, April 5, 2024
• Up 7.98% from its 52-week low of $65.75 hit Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024
• Down 7.60% from 52 weeks ago
• Off 11.29% from its 2025 settlement high of $80.04 hit Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025
• Up 0.55% from its 2025 settlement low of $70.61 hit Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025
• Off 51.13% from its record high of $145.29 hit Thursday, July 3, 2008
• Year-to-date it is down 72.00 cents or 1.00%

All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.

Source: Dow Jones Market Data