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The S&P 500 Index Tuesday closed down -0.29%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index closed down -0.86%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed down -0.17%.
Stock indexes settled moderately lower on Tuesday as they consolidated the past week’s rally to record highs. Higher bond yields Tuesday fueled some profit-taking pressures in stocks following five straight sessions of gains. Also, long liquidation in stocks ahead of Wednesday's US consumer price report weighed on the overall market.
Stocks have rallied sharply over the past week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs on speculation President-elect Trump will boost corporate profits through tax cuts and reduced regulation.
Positive Fed comments on Tuesday were bullish for stocks. Richmond Fed President Barkin said the US economy looks "pretty good," and the Fed is in a position to respond however the economy evolves. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said only inflation could derail a Fed rate cut in December, and "if we saw inflation surprises to the upside between now and then, that might give us pause."
The markets are looking ahead to Wednesday’s US consumer price report for October, with Oct CPI expected to climb to +2.6% y/y, up from +2.4% y/y in Sep, and core Oct CPI expected to remain unchanged from Sep at +3.3% y/y. Also, Friday’s report on retail sales will be looked at to see if consumer spending is holding up. Oct retail sales are expected to be up +0.3% m/m, and Oct retail sales ex-autos are also expected to be up +0.3% m/m.
Of the 85% of companies in the S&P 500 that have released Q3 earnings so far, 75% surpassed the estimates, slightly below the 3-year average. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 have reported an average +8.4% y/y increase in quarterly earnings in Q3, more than double the preseason forecast.
The markets are discounting the chances at 62% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
Overseas stock markets Tuesday settled lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled to a 2-month low and closed down -2.25%. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -1.39%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.40%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Tuesday closed down by -15.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +13.1 bp to 4.435%. T-notes were under pressure Tuesday from carryover weakness in European government bonds. Also, upbeat comments Tuesday from Richmond Fed President Barkin curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes when he said the US economy looks "pretty good." In addition, concerns about inflationary pressures of future policies from President-elect Trump are weighing on T-notes.
European government bond yields Tuesday moved higher. The 10-year German bund yield rebounded from a 1-1/2 week low of 2.299% and finished up +3.6 bp to 2.362%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +7.4 bp to 4.499%.
The German Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth unexpectedly fell -3.7 to 7.4 versus expectations of an increase to 13.2.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn said disinflation in the Eurozone is "well on track," and the growth outlook "seems to be weakening," and "that strengthens the case for an ECB rate cut in December."
Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 23% for a -50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.
US Stock Movers
Mosaic closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 net sales of $2.8 billion, weaker than the consensus of $3.14 billion.
GE Vernova closed down more than -7% after the Financial Times reported that CEO Strazik said the company plans to postpone searching for new offshore turbine orders until market conditions improve.
Home builders retreated Tuesday after the 10-year T-note yield jumped more than +13 bp, which boosts mortgage rates and is negative for housing demand. As a result, PulteGroup , Lennar , DR Horton , and Toll Brothers closed down more than -3%.
Elevance Health closed down more than -2% after the CFO said he sees pressure in Medicaid persisting in 2025 and sees Medicare Advantage margins missing their 2025 targets.
Neurogene closed down more than -43% after a disclosure indicated an emerging serious adverse event in a trial participant for the experimental Rett syndrome drug.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals closed down more than -3% after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to underperform from peer perform with a price target of $205.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings closed down more than -4% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $56.
Airbnb closed down more than -2% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to reduce from neutral with a price target of $120.
Tyson Foods closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 92 cents, stronger than the consensus of 72 cents.
Honeywell International closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after Elliot Investment Management said it built a $5 billion stake in the company and is calling for a breakup of the company.
Live Nation Entertainment closed up more than +4% after reporting Q3 adjusted operating income of $909.8 million, stronger than the consensus of $856.6 million.
Nvidia closed up more than +2% after Redburn initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $178.
Shopify closed up more than +21% after reporting Q3 revenue of $2.16 billion, better than the consensus of $2.12 billion.
Twilio closed up more than +2% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $120.
Molson Coors Beverage closed up more than +2% after JPMorgan Chase said the latest data showed improving trends for the company as the latest 4-week trend to November 2 saw dollar takeaway down -1.9%, an improvement of 200 bp over the prior 4-week period.
Earnings Reports (11/13/2024)
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR), NU Holdings Ltd/Cayman Islands (NU), Tetra Tech Inc (TTEK).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
US benchmark equity indexes retreated from Monday's all-time high closing levels as markets parsed comments by two Federal Reserve officials and awaited official consumer inflation data for October.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% Tuesday to close at 43,911, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.3% to 5,984. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1% to 19,281.4. Materials saw the steepest decline among sectors, while communication services, technology, and consumer staples posted gains.
The US economy is in "a good place," while interest rates are off their recent peak and historic lows, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said. This puts policymakers in a position to "respond appropriately" irrespective of how the economy evolves, he added.
Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the US monetary policy is "modestly restrictive," with short-term borrowing costs continuing to cool inflation and slow the economy, though not by much, Reuters reported.
On Thursday, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, following a 50-basis-point cut in September.
The US 10-year yield jumped 12 basis points to 4.43% Tuesday, while the two-year rate advanced 8.6 basis points to 4.34%.
In economic news, US consumers' inflation expectations cooled in October, while labor market concerns eased, according to a survey by the New York Fed.
Official data are expected to show Wednesday that US consumer inflation rose 0.2% sequentially and 2.6% annually last month, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus.
Official producer prices data for October are scheduled to be released Thursday.
Small business optimism in the US rose more than projected in October, while the uncertainty index hit a record high, though that's likely to improve now that the presidential election is over, according to the National Federation of Independent Business' latest survey.
Donald Trump won the election last week, marking his return to the White House.
In company news, Mosaic shares dropped 7.7%, the steepest decline on the S&P 500, after its third-quarter financial results fell more than expected.
Amgen was the worst performer on the Dow and the Nasdaq, and among the worst on the S&P 500, down 7.1%.
Tyson Foods surpassed top- and bottom-line expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter and issued guidance implying a slight cooldown in sales in the new year amid ongoing uncertainties with its beef business. The company's shares rose 6.6%, the top gainer on the S&P 500.
Live Nation Entertainment shares gained 4.7%, among the best performers on the S&P 500. The company reported mixed third-quarter results late Monday and said it's seeing strong demand in the current quarter and into 2025 for its Ticketmaster sales segment.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil was little changed at $68.01 a barrel Tuesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced its 2024 and 2025 global oil demand projections for the fourth straight month while raising its world economic growth forecasts.
Gold fell 0.4% to $2,607 per troy ounce, while silver rose 1% to $30.92 per ounce.
On Monday, the S&P 500 eclipsed the coveted 6,000 mark, banking on the post-election rally. Donald Trump’s election victory has raised hopes of lower corporate taxes and deregulation, which helped the market benchmark to scale upward. The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also boosted investors’ sentiment.
Thus, investors should make the most of the S&P 500’s upward trajectory by favoring profitable stocks over unprofitable ones. Investors should consider metrics like accounting ratios for performance assessment. We have selected the most successful and commonly used profitability ratio to evaluate a company’s performance.
To that end, NVIDIA Corporation NVDA, Insulet Corporation PODD and Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM have been selected as the top picks with a high net income ratio.
Net Income Ratio
The net income ratio shows a company’s profitability level. It reflects the percentage of net income to total sales revenues. Using the net income ratio, one can determine a firm’s effectiveness in meeting operating and non-operating expenses from revenues. A higher net income ratio usually implies a company’s ability to generate ample revenues and successfully manage all business functions.
Screening Parameters Using Research Wizard:
The net income ratio is not the only indicator of future winners. So, we have added a few more criteria to arrive at a winning strategy.
Zacks Rank Less than or equal to 2: Whether the market is good or bad, stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) have a proven history of outperformance. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Trailing 12-Month Sales and Net Income Growth Higher than X Industry: Stocks that have witnessed higher-than-industry sales and net income growth in the past 12 months are positioned to perform well.
Trailing 12-Month Net Income Ratio Higher than X Industry: A high net income ratio indicates a company’s solid profitability.
Percentage Rating Strong Buy greater than 70: This indicates that 70% of the current broker recommendations for the stock are Strong Buy.
These few parameters have narrowed the universe of more than 7,685 stocks to only 35.
Here are three of the 35 stocks that qualified for the screening:
NVIDIA
NVIDIA Corporation leads in visual computing technologies and invented the graphic processing unit or GPU. The 12-month net profit margin of NVDA is 55%.
The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 116.9%. NVIDIA Corporation currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (read more: NVIDIA Tops $3.5T Milestone - Good Time to Buy NVDA Stock?).
Insulet
Insulet is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of the Omnipod Insulin Management System. The 12-month net profit margin of PODD is 21.2%.
The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 12.7%. Insulet currently has a Zacks Rank #2.
Howmet Aerospace
Howmet Aerospace offers engineered solutions for customers in the transportation and aerospace industries. The 12-month net profit margin of HWM is 14.8%.
The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 41.9%. Howmet Aerospace currently has a Zacks Rank #2.
You can get the rest of the stocks on this list by signing up now for your 2-week free trial to the Research Wizard and start using this screen in your own trading. Further, you can also create your own strategies and test them first before taking the investment plunge.
The Research Wizard is a great place to begin. It's easy to use. Everything is in plain language. And it's very intuitive. Start your Research Wizard trial today. And the next time you read an economic report, open up the Research Wizard, plug your finds in, and see what gems come out.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks’ portfolios and strategies are available at: https://www.zacks.com/performance.
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