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By Jamie Chisholm
BTIG strategist says weak seasonal factors are looming.
When U.S. investors return from the long weekend they will be faced with a stock market looking well-positioned to break out to fresh record highs.
But any such move into virgin territory may precede a "deeper pullback" as negative seasonal factors take hold.
That's according to Jonathan Krinsky, technical guru at BTIG, who in a note published Sunday, said the S&P 500 SPX is at an inflection point as a multi-month trading range nears resolution.
The S&P 500 finished on Friday just 0.07% below the record close of 5827.04 hit on January 10. The Wall Street barometer has fluctuated within an ever-decreasing range as sell-offs on concerns about sticky inflation and tariff uncertainty have been counteracted by a better-than-expected corporate earnings season.
These vacillations have left the S&P 500's chart showing a flat-topped flag shape - as shown below - a technical pattern that is often resolved by an asset price breaking above the upper bound of the range.
"The SPX has spent the better part of the last three months in a pretty narrow trading range," said Krinsky. "While there is nothing bearish about new highs, and while SPX looks poised to breakout of that multi-month trading range, we are entering a weak seasonal period with weak momentum."
Krinksy said he is concerned that any marginal new high might be followed by a deeper pullback into March, though unless bears can push the S&P 500 back below 6,000, bulls will remain in the driving seat.
One reason the market may be more vulnerable than it seems is that although the S&P 500 is near its highs, less than 60% of its components are above their 50-day moving averages, suggesting a notable chunk of the market are not enjoying an upward trend.
There has also been another failed broadening of the market in relation to small cap stocks, with their ability to not just participate in the rally but to outperform remaining elusive.
This can be illustrated by looking at the iShares Russell 2000 ETF relative to the S&P 500, which the chart below shows has dipped to its lowest since July.
However, there are areas of the market that Krinsky is upbeat about, notably materials, which he said have just broken out of a multi-week range. He likes the charts of Corteva (CTVA), International Paper (IP), Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Vulcan Materials (VMC).
Casino and gambling stocks as a group are also now looking at an upside breakout after trading sideways, said Krinksy. And he likes the charts of DraftKings (DKNG), Accel Entertainment (ACEL), Boyd Gaming (BYD), PENN Entertainment (PENN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS).
-Jamie Chisholm
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Indian shares ended slightly higher after falling for eight consecutive sessions, amid foreign net selling due to trade uncertainties. Bank and power stocks led the gains. IndusInd Bank rose 2.3% and HDFC Bank was up 1.3%. Power Grid Corp. of India gained 2.25% and NTPC was 0.75% higher. Bajaj Finserv was the best-performing stock on the benchmark index, rising 2.8%. Tech stocks collectively fell, with Tata Consultancy Services down 0.75% and Infosys dropping 0.7%. The benchmark Sensex Index ended 0.1% higher at 75996.86. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
Insig AI secured a 12-month license and revenue share deal with the UK's JP Jenkins, according to a Monday filing.
The licensing deal covers access to the data science and machine learning services company's Transparency and Disclosure Index for JP Jenkins.
Additionally, JP Jenkins will offer Insig AI's services on its platform as part of the agreement.
MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
Stocks gained, with European defense stocks advancing after a weekend of remarks signaling a boost in defense spending.
French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris to discuss Ukraine and security in Europe.
Stocks to Watch
The automotive, chemicals, food-and-beverages and aerospace sectors are the most exposed in Europe to U.S. reciprocal tariffs that could soon be imposed, according to Citi.
These sectors represent a greater share of the market size in France, Switzerland, Italy and Germany, while countries like Sweden and Spain seem less exposed, it added.
Dassault Aviation's share price could rise by between 11 and 23 euros a share if the group wins a potential contract from India for 114 fighter jets, Citi said.
U.S. Markets:
Markets are closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
Forex:
The euro's potential to rise looked limited amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ING said.
While efforts toward a ceasefire have helped at the margin, the "prospect of increased U.S. isolationism does not look positive" for the currency, it said.
"A much higher euro from here probably requires a conviction on some much softer U.S. [economic] activity data-a conviction we do not have."
The dollar continued to hover near two-month lows against a basket of currencies as investors digested Trump's latest tariff plans and Friday's weak U.S. retail sales data, Pepperstone said.
With Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlikely to come into effect until April, investors were betting there's plenty of time for negotiations, it said.
While it's tough to bet against the dollar amid continued tariff risks and high policy uncertainty, the currency needs a fresh catalyst to rally or it will "meander lower for the time being."
That's not helped by the U.S. data calendar being "devoid of anything particularly interesting" until March.
Sterling traders were likely to put an increased emphasis on upcoming U.K. employment data after recent remarks from BOE official Catherine Mann, ING said.
Mann's focus on a "non linear" fall in employment means Tuesday's jobs data could have a bigger market impact, it added.
UOB said the the pound was likely in an early recovery phase versus the dollar, based on the daily chart.
Bonds:
Yields on U.K. and eurozone government bonds rose as prospects of an end to the war in Ukraine boosted risk appetite and dented safe-haven bonds.
At the same time, any peace deal is expected to require vastly increased European defense spending, raising concerns about higher public debt.
Commerzbank said ahead of the German elections that, "with political headlines set to dominate this week, amid a light economic calendar, there could be more pressure on Bunds near-term."
Risk sentiment, partly driven by prospects for peace in Ukraine, could be further boosted by the unfolding political dynamics, it added.
Morgan Stanley now expects the 10-year Bund yield to end the year at 1.80%, up from its forecast of 1.65%.
"We incorporated mark-to-market adjustments and higher U.S. Treasury forecasts, resulting in an overall upward revision."
It retains a positive stance on duration but foresees a slower normalization at and below the 2% Bund target seen currently by the second quarter of 2025.
Danske Bank said there hasn't been clear direction in movement of 10-year Treasury yields since Trump's inauguration, and the direction for global bond yields still seems very uncertain.
Ten-year Treasurys have been trading with a yield between 4.40% and 4.60%, based on signals from the Fed as well as key economic data, however, there has been a clear path for the 10-year swap spread, which has widened some 10 basis points since late January, it added.
Energy:
Oil prices were little changed as U.S. officials prepared to meet with their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to seek an end to the war in Ukraine.
"The spread between spot and one-month futures for WTI were trading at $0.01/bbl, down from $1.52/bbl about a month ago," ANZ said.
"This suggests demand for physical oil is currently subdued."
A Russia/Ukraine peace deal could potentially see the lifting of Western sanctions and resumption of some Russian flows to Europe.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Bloomberg, the president of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region said oil exports could resume next month after being shut down for nearly two years.
Metals:
Gold futures rose amid volatile trading, though they appeared to be approaching overbought territory.
The growth trajectory of gold has become less straightforward, FxPro said.
Gold recorded a sharp selloff mid-week, though prices rebounded toward Friday--signaling that while buyers remain cautious, they continued to apply upward pressure, it said, adding that on a day-to-day basis, the precious metal has entered overbought territory on the RSI index, though historically, this has led to temporary pauses in rallies rather than reversals.
On a weekly timeframe, the market is still bullish, as any pullback in recent months has created space for further acceleration.
Gold chart
Comex gold futures' uptrend was taking a pause, based on the daily chart , RHB Retail Research said.
Copper demand
Copper edged higher amid signs of stronger demand.
China's retail sales and industrial production were higher, while the downtrend in developed economies has been reversing, ANZ said.
This has led to China's copper imports rising strongly and inventories falling, and while investors are still worried about the trajectory of U.S. tariffs, there aren't any tariffs on copper imports at this stage, it added.
EMEA HEADLINES
Swedish Private-Equity Group EQT Names Company Veteran Per Franzen New CEO
Swedish buyout group EQT named company veteran Per Franzen as its new chief executive and managing partner, replacing Christian Sinding, who will step down in May.
Franzen joined EQT in 2007 and currently serves as deputy managing partner and head of private capital Europe and North America, the company's largest business division with 113 billion euros ($118.57 billion) in total assets under management.
Galp Energia's Earnings Miss Expectations; Launches $262 Million Buyback
Galp Energia's fourth-quarter earnings missed consensus expectations but the Portuguese oil-and-gas producer still launched a 250 million euro ($262.3 million) share buyback.
Galp on Monday reported an adjusted replacement cost net profit-a metric is similar to net profit that U.S. oil and gas companies report-of 71 million euros. This compares with 171 million euros analysts had expected according to a company compiled consensus, and down from the 266 million euros it reported in the third quarter.
GLOBAL NEWS
China Sends Message to Tech Leaders: We Need You
Chinese leader Xi Jinping signaled to leading technology entrepreneurs and CEOs that he needed the private sector to deliver economic growth and self-sufficiency, more than four years after a crackdown by Beijing that dented confidence.
Many of China's most prominent businesspeople gathered in Beijing to meet Xi on Monday, according to a video shown on state television.
The New Plan for Western Companies Is ABC: 'Anything But China'
For a growing number of Western tech companies, "Anything But China" is the order of the day.
In recent years, many multinationals decided they had become overreliant on suppliers in China, prompting them to pursue a so-called "China Plus 1" strategy of augmenting China-based suppliers with those in other countries.
Jan. 6 Rioters Argue Pardons Apply to Charges Including Murder Plot, Child Porn
Less than a month after receiving pardons for participating in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, some former defendants find themselves in a familiar place: back in court, facing other criminal charges.
There is Edward Kelley, who was pardoned for assaulting police at the U.S. Capitol, but who is now fighting another case. In November, a jury convicted him of conspiring to murder the Federal Bureau of Investigation agents who investigated his Jan. 6 participation, with evidence showing he had a "kill list" of targets.
Trump Asks Supreme Court to Let Him Fire Ethics Watchdog
WASHINGTON-President Trump's campaign to remake the federal government reached the Supreme Court on Sunday, when the Justice Department filed emergency papers arguing that Trump holds the constitutional power to dismiss an executive-branch ethics watchdog.
White House Personnel Office leader Sergio Gor fired the lawyer who heads the Office of Special Counsel, Hampton Dellinger, on Feb. 7 with a two-sentence email.
Write to clare.kinloch@wsj.com
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
SASX-10 increased to a near 16-year high of 1261.00 Index Points.
Over the past 4 weeks, Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 10 gained 4.04%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 30.48%.
Singapore's stock market closed higher on Monday, despite a decline in the city-state's domestic exports and lackluster US retail sales data.
The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 3,881.00 and 3,904.85 throughout the day. It ended the session at 3,904.85, up 27.35 points or 0.71% compared to Friday's close.
In economic news, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports declined 2.1% in January, after a 9.0% increase in the preceding month, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore.
Shares of Salt Investments' F surged over 33% after the company's attributable loss to equity holders for fiscal Q3 widened 633% to SG$1.7 million from SG$233,000 a year earlier.
Lum Chang's L shares were up nearly 7% at the close after its attributable profit to equity holders declined 4% in fiscal H1 to SG$3.5 million from SG$3.6 million a year earlier.
Meanwhile, shares of Keppel DC REIT were up over 1% at the close after the REIT entered into a sale and purchase agreement to divest its 100% freehold interest in the Kelsterbach Data Centre in Frankfurt, Germany for 50 million euros.
Singapore's FTSE Straits Times Index closed 0.7% higher at 3904.85, tracking U.S. futures. Markets saw some relief from delayed U.S. tariffs, as it provides room for negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners, the focus has shifted to U.S. data releases expected for this week, including jobless claims and minutes from January's FOMC meeting, the UOB Global Economics & Markets Research team writes in a note. Among the best performers on the benchmark index, Hongkong Land rose 3.2%, with Genting Singapore and Jardine Matheson Holdings both rose 2.6%. Among decliners, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding fell 1.6%. SATS and Singtel both fell 1.2%. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
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