Investing.com -- U.S. nuclear power is poised for significant growth, with two major themes said to be driving the industry's future: expansion of domestic capacity and...
Investing.com -- U.S. nuclear power is poised for significant growth, with two major themes said to be driving the industry's future: expansion of domestic capacity and localization of enriched uranium supply.
According to Daiwa Capital Markets, these developments could unlock billions in new markets while reshaping the energy landscape.
Nuclear equipment
Daiwa explained in its research note to clients that the US Department of Energy (DOE) aims to add 35 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear capacity by 2035, a 36% increase from 2023 levels. This is said to be part of a broader target to triple capacity by 2050, as announced during COP29.
The firm notes that achieving this milestone would require 15 GW of annual additions from 2040 onward, contributing to net-zero emissions goals. Daiwa estimates that this growth trajectory opens up a $101 billion market for nuclear power equipment manufacturers.
Daiwa believes the “long-term growth narrative [is] reaffirmed with [the] U.S. eyeing 35GW additional capacity by 2035; a USD101bn market to be unlocked.”
They add that companies such as GEV, BWXT, and Fluor (NYSE:FLR) are positioned to benefit, given the estimated capital cost of $6,041 per kilowatt.
Enriched uranium
The firm notes that a recent Russian counter-ban on enriched uranium exports to the US has intensified efforts to localize nuclear fuel supply.
Russia is said to currently account for 44% of global uranium enrichment capacity. The US ban on Russian uranium, enacted in May, leaves a 27% shortfall in enriched uranium demand domestically.
Daiwa expects a $443 million market for domestic enrichers, highlighting companies like Centrus Energy (NYSE:LEU) and Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON) as beneficiaries.
While inventories of uranium oxide (U3O8) remain robust, covering 2.9 years of demand, “Localisation of nuclear fuel is likely now a priority,” Daiwa said. Enrichment growth will likely outpace benefits to miners in the near term.
Daiwa sees the U.S. nuclear revival as part of a global trend, with similar optimism for China’s nuclear ambitions, signaling a robust outlook for the sector.
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Centrus Stock Declines 10% on TENEX Update: What Does it Mean for Investors?
Shares of Centrus Energy Corp. LEU fell 10% yesterday after it announced that its main supplier TENEX’s export license has been rescinded as Russia has banned the export of low-enriched uranium to the United States or U.S.-registered entities. Per the current mandate, TENEX has to obtain a specific export license to ship low-enriched uranium to Centrus. If it fails, Centrus may face challenges in fulfilling its delivery commitments to customers, which could affect its results.
The Centrus Energy stock closed at $68.50 yesterday, falling below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $70.73, signaling a potential downtrend. The 50-day SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.
LEU Trades Below 50-Day SMA
With this recent setback, Centrus Energy has experienced a 27.5% drop in its stock price over the past month compared with the industry’s decline of 9.4%. The broader Zacks Basic Materials sector has declined 6.1%, while the S&P 500 has grown 1.1% during the same period.
Meanwhile, Centrus Energy’s peers Energy Fuels UUUU, Denison Mine Corp DNN and Uranium Energy UEC have fared better, gaining 4.2%, 3.5% and 2%, respectively, over the past month.
LEU's 1-Month Price Performance
Does LEU’s price decline represent a buying opportunity? Or are there enough near-term concerns to give the stock a miss at the moment? Let us delve deeper.
Cancellation of TENEX’s License Puts LEU’s Results at Risk
Under the 2011 TENEX supply contract, Centrus Energy purchases the separative work units (SWU) contained in the low-enriched uranium received from TENEX. Centrus Energy delivers natural uranium hexafluoride to TENEX for the LEU’s uranium component. This is subject to quotas and other restrictions applicable to commercial Russian low-enriched uranium.
The United States had imposed a ban on Russian uranium imports earlier this year. However, waivers may be granted to allow the import of limited amounts of Russian-origin LEU under certain circumstances until Jan. 1, 2028. Centrus Energy had received such a waiver from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in July, allowing it to import low-enriched uranium from TENEX for delivery to U.S. customers in 2024 and 2025.
On June 7, 2024, Centrus Energy filed a second waiver request application to allow for the import of low-enriched uranium from Russia for processing and re-exporting to the company's foreign customers. It is currently awaiting DOE's approval. LEU plans to file a third waiver request application to allow for imports for its deliveries in 2026 and 2027.
Now that Russia has retaliated by imposing restrictions on exports of enriched uranium to the United States, it exacerbates Centrus Energy’s woes. Russia has clarified that exemptions will be made for deliveries under one-off licenses issued by the Russian Federal Service for Technical and Export Control.
TENEX’s current license to export low-enriched uranium to the United States has thus been revoked. It is now required to obtain a specific export license from the Russian authorities to meet its remaining shipment commitments of low-enriched uranium to Centrus Energy. While TENEX indicated that it would proceed to do so, there is no guarantee whether these licenses will be granted. In case it receives the approval, it is unclear whether it will be issued in proper time to ensure delivery to Centrus Energy.
Centrus Energy had stated that through 2027, more than half of the low-enriched uranium that it expected to deliver to customers would be sourced under the TENEX Supply Contract. While the company has other sources, they cannot replace the TENEX supply. Thus, if TENEX cannot secure the approval, this loss in supply would hinder Centrus’ ability to fulfill its delivery commitments, and materially impact its results and competitive position. The company might be forced to buy the enriched uranium in the spot market, which could further pressure margins.
Considering that Centrus Energy does not mine uranium, this dependence on suppliers like TENEX to meet customer demand creates a substantial vulnerability.
LEU Reports Weaker-Than-Expected Q3 Earnings
Centrus Energy reported a loss of 30 cents per share in the third quarter of 2024, falling way short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 18 cents due to lower margins. LEU reported earnings per share of 52 cents in the third quarter of 2023.
Revenues were $57.7 million for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $47 million. This compares with year-ago revenues of $51.3 million.
Gross profit declined 21% to $8.9 million in the third quarter as increased gross profit in the Technical Solutions segment was offset by lower gross profit in the LEU segment. Gross profit in the LEU segment was lower due to the decrease in sales volume, partially offset by the composition of contracts in the current quarter, which included higher-priced legacy contracts. Centrus Energy’s gross margin contracted 660 basis points year over year to 15.4%.
Estimate Revision Trend of LEU
Earnings estimates for Centrus Energy for 2024 have moved down 21.6% to $2.40 over the past 60 days and the same for 2025 has declined 5.7% to $2.83. The negative estimate revision depicts bearish sentiments for the stock.
Disparity Between LEU's Revenue & Earnings Growth
The charts below show the trend in Centrus Energy’s revenues and earnings over the past three years. While LEU has seen a 3-year CAGR of 9% in its top line, the bottom line grew at a slower pace, seeing a CAGR of 4.2%.
LEU’s Revenue Trend in Past 3 Years
LEU’s Earnings Trend in Past 3 Years
LEU’s Valuation Looks Stretched
Centrus Energy’s stock is trading at a premium to the industry and broader market. Its forward 12-month P/E ratio of 24.67 is higher than the industry average of 20.23. It is also higher than the Basic Materials Sector’s 14.6 and S&P 500’s 22.13.
LEU’s Value Score of F reinforces concerns around its overvaluation, signaling that its current price may not align with underlying fundamentals.
LEU Banks on Long-Term Demand Prospects for HALEU
Centrus Energy is pioneering the development of a high-performance nuclear fuel component called High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), which is expected to be needed in the next few years to power both existing reactors and a new generation of advanced reactors to meet the world’s growing need for carbon-free electricity.
Under a contract with the DOE, Centrus is deploying a cascade of AC100M centrifuges at the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, OH — the first facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for HALEU production. In October, Centrus Energy announced that its subsidiary, American Centrifuge Operating, LLC, was selected by the DOE as an awardee for HALEU production and HALEU deconversion contracts.
Per the World Nuclear Association, as of end of September 2024, there were 67 reactors under construction worldwide, approximately one-half of which are in China. The United States, with more than 90 operating reactors, is the world’s largest market for nuclear fuel.
Better to Avoid Centrus Energy Stock for Now
Given Centrus Energy’s major reliance on TENEX for the supply of low-enriched uranium, the company was already at risk and dependent on waivers following the United States’ ban on imports from Russia. The cancellation of TENEX’s export license adds to its challenges. If TENEX fails to obtain the necessary approvals, this will severely impact LEU’s delivery commitments and, thereby, its results. Considering this uncertainty, coupled with the downward earnings estimate revisions and its premium valuation, it may be wise to hold off on investing in Centrus Energy at this time.
LEU currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Centrus Appoints Neal Nagarajan as Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
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M-tron Industries Q3 Earnings & Revenues Beat, Margins Up Y/Y
M-tron Industries, Inc. MPTI or MtronPTI, reported impressive results for the third quarter of 2024. The top and bottom lines surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased from the year-ago period.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Shares of this designer and manufacturer of highly-engineered electronic components and solutions provider gained 4.2% in the after-hours trading session on Wednesday. Investors’ sentiments might have been boosted after MPTI noted that it anticipates a strong performance in the fourth quarter and expects to exceed its prior guidance for 2024.
Inside the MPTI Headline Numbers
M-tron Industries reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 81 cents, which surpassed the consensus estimate of 54 cents by 50%. The reported figure increased 42.1% from 57 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. The upside was backed by continued strong defense program product and solution shipments.
M-tron Industries, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
M-tron Industries, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | M-tron Industries, Inc. Quote
Quarterly revenues of $13.2 million beat the consensus mark of $12.2 million by 8.3%. The reported figure increased 21.4% from the year-ago quarter’s $10.9 million, driven by solid defense-related orders.
MPTI’s Margins & Backlog Discussion
Gross margin was 47.8%, up 500 basis points (bps) from 42.8% a year ago. The increase was primarily due to higher revenues, improved production efficiencies from previous investments, and an improved product mix of higher-margin products.
Adjusted EBITDA was $3.3 million, which increased 41.3% from $23.4 million reported in the year-ago quarter backed by improved gross margins and continued cost containment efforts. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 25%, up 350 bps from 21.5% a year ago.
As of Sept. 30, the total backlog was $39.76 million compared with $47.83 million at 2023-end and $50.28 million a year ago. The decrease in backlog reflects the continued strategy and focus on securing large, long-duration program-centric businesses.
MtronPTI’s Financial Details
As of Sept. 30, 2024, MtronPTI had cash and cash equivalents of $8.49 million compared with $3.91 million at the end of 2023. Inventories were $9.55 million compared with $8.88 million at 2023-end.
Outlook
With the continued momentum in defense-related sales and the acceleration in production and shipments in the first half of 2024, MPTI expects to exceed the prior guidance for 2024.
The company expects revenues to be within $46-$48 million in 2024 from the previous year's number of $41.17 million. It expects adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 19-21%.
Zacks Rank
MtronPTI currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Peer Releases
Fluor Corporation FLR reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents by 34.6%. The reported figure decreased 50% from an EPS of $1.02 a year ago.
Fluor’s quarterly revenues of $4.09 billion missed the consensus mark of $4.79 billion by 14.6%. The figure grew 3.3% from the year-ago quarter’s level of $3.96 billion.
KBR, Inc. KBR reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with adjusted earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
KBR’s quarterly results were backed by the benefits realized from the LinQuest acquisition and solid contributions from both the reportable businesses, given the increased demand trends for its services. Although high costs and expenses were headwinds, leverage from the increased top line aided the uptick.
Quanta Services Inc. PWR reported mixed results for the third quarter of 2024, wherein adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but revenues missed the same.
Quanta reported a strong quarter with double-digit growth across key financial metrics, a record backlog of $34 billion and $539.5 million in free cash flow. CEO Duke Austin attributed this growth to Quanta’s diverse portfolio, high demand, effective execution and an expanding market.
Zacks Investment Research
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
Energy stocks fell late Tuesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index declining 0.7% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) down 0.3%.
The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index dropped 1.4%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities index shed 0.9%.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced 2024 and 2025 global oil demand projections for the fourth straight month, while raising world economic growth forecasts. The group expects world oil demand this year to grow 1.82 million barrels a day and 1.54 million b/d in 2025. The previous estimates were 1.93 million b/d this year and 1.64 million b/d in 2025.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.3% to $68.22 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent advanced 0.2% to $71.98 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 0.2% to $2.91 per 1 million BTU.
In corporate news, GE Vernova Chief Executive Scott Strazik is putting on hold their search for new offshore turbine orders to wait for market conditions to improve, the Financial Times reported. GE Vernova shares tumbled 7.6%.
Northwest Natural reported a Q3 net loss of $0.71 per diluted share, widening from the loss of $0.65 a share a year earlier. Four analysts polled by Capital IQ expected a loss of $0.80. The shares gained 1.1%.
Adams Resources & Energy shares surged 36.2% after the company said Tuesday it has agreed to be bought by an affiliate of Tres Energy in an all-cash deal valued at about $138.9 million.
Magnolia Oil & Gas , through several of the exploration and production company's operating subsidiaries, on Tuesday disclosed plans for a $400 million private placement of senior unsecured notes maturing in 2032, subject to market and other conditions. Magnolia shares decreased 1.3%.
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MtronPTI Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind
M-tron Industries, Inc. MPTI or MtronPTI, is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 (ended Sept. 30, 2024) results on Nov. 13, after the closing bell.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
This designer and manufacturer of highly engineered electronic components reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2024. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26% and 5.4%.
On a year-over-year basis, EPS grew 34% and revenues increased 16.4%, driven by defense sector demand, with gross margin improving to 46.6% from 41.6% a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30.7% to $2.52 million. The company's growth since its 2022 IPO was emphasized by continued revenue growth, higher new orders, and a positive order backlog trend.
MtronPTI surpassed the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters. The average surprise over this period is 9.2%.
M-tron Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
M-tron Industries, Inc. price-eps-surprise | M-tron Industries, Inc. Quote
How Are Estimates Placed for MPTI Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter EPS has remained unchanged at 54 cents over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a 5.3% decline from the year-ago reported figure. Nonetheless, the consensus mark for revenues is $12.2 million, indicating 12% year-over-year growth.
Factors Influencing MtronPTI’s Q3 Performance
The company is seeing positive momentum owing to strong shipments of defense program products and solutions. The company’s third quarter is likely to have gained from strategic investments in the defense sector, new products entering volume production and improved production efficiencies, supported by ongoing investments in personnel and equipment.
The company is strategically positioned to execute its organic growth plans, emphasizing key sectors with substantial potential. MPTI focuses on areas, such as space and satellite technologies, radar applications and electronic warfare solutions, particularly with products like the e-Vibe series OCXOs, designed for stability under dynamic conditions. This characteristic is likely to have contributed to quarterly results.
Overall, MPTI’s strong operational footing and growth trajectory, particularly in its defense and aerospace markets, with continued expansion across high-demand areas like radar, satellite, and electronic warfare applications, are major tailwinds.
However, the company has been experiencing cost pressures primarily due to increased engineering, selling, and administrative expenses, attributed to increased investments in research and development, higher sales commissions due to revenue growth, and elevated administrative and corporate expenses aligned with overall business expansion. This is likely to have affected the company’s profitability.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for MtronPTI
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for MtronPTI for the quarter to be reported. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: MPTI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Peer Releases
Fluor Corporation FLR reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents by 34.6%. The reported figure decreased 50% from an EPS of $1.02 a year ago.
Fluor’s quarterly revenues of $4.09 billion missed the consensus mark of $4.79 billion by 14.6%. The figure grew 3.3% from the year-ago quarter’s level of $3.96 billion.
KBR, Inc. KBR reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with adjusted earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
KBR’s quarterly results were backed by the benefits realized from the LinQuest acquisition and solid contributions from both the reportable businesses, given the increased demand trends for its services. Although high costs and expenses were headwinds, leverage from the increased top line aided the uptick.
Quanta Services Inc. PWR reported mixed results for the third quarter of 2024, wherein adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but revenues missed the same.
Quanta reported a strong quarter with double-digit growth across key financial metrics, a record backlog of $34 billion and $539.5 million in free cash flow. CEO Duke Austin attributed this growth to Quanta’s diverse portfolio, high demand, effective execution and an expanding market.
Zacks Investment Research
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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1 Dividend Stock to Consider Now for Nuclear Energy Upside
Nuclear energy stocks have been in focus this week, with many of the biggest gainers in the group selling off sharply in response to an unfavorable ruling from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regarding a data center deal between Talen Energy and Amazon . The setback followed major rallies in names like Vistra Energy , Constellation Energy , and Centrus Energy as Magnificent Seven hyper-scalers increasingly moved to strike exclusive nuclear power deals to fuel their data center ambitions.
However, as investors parse through the eventual impact of the FERC decision, it seems likely that any dips in these names could be buying opportunities - particularly since many top nuclear energy investments are also dividend-paying utility stocks. Here's a closer look at one dividend stock with nuclear energy upside.
Entergy Corporation Outpaces the Market
Entergy Corp. is an energy utility company that focuses on the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. They are involved in the production of power fueled by natural gas (NGZ24), coal, oil (CLZ24), nuclear, and hydro sources.
Based out of New Orleans and valued at $31.29 billion by market cap, Entergy distributes power to residential and business customers across Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas.
ETR stock has outperformed the broader market by a decent margin this year, up 47.2% in 2024 compared to a gain of 25.7% for the S&P 500 Index . The shares are down about 7% from their recently set highs.
Entergy pays a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share, which translates to a yield of 3.29% at current levels. The stock has paid dividends consistently for 29 years, with nine years of steady increases.
Entergy Reports Mixed Q3
Entergy Corp. reported its third-quarter results on Oct. 31, with earnings of $644.9 million, or $2.99 per share, surpassing analysts' estimates of $2.91 per share. Revenue for the quarter came up just short at $3.39 billion, down 5.7% YoY and slightly below estimates of $3.46 billion.
Operating expenses during Q3 came to $2.26 billion, down 7.7% YoY. The energy company ended the quarter with a cash reserve of $1.41 billion and long-term debt of $26.56 billion.
"We achieved outstanding results across operational, regulatory, resilience, and growth dimensions. These outcomes are the result of strong execution and leveraging a stakeholder engagement model that starts with the customer and ensures value is created for all stakeholders," said CEO Drew Marsh.
Entergy’s management also revised their 2024 guidance. They now expect earnings in the range of $7.15 to $7.35 per share, compared to the previous guidance of $7.05 to $7.35 per share.
Is ETR Stock a Good Buy for Nuclear Energy Upside?
On the conference call, management discussed plans to expand its current nuclear capacity of roughly 5KW.
"Beyond our sizable existing fleet and capabilities, we are well positioned to evaluate and ultimately pursue new nuclear options," said Marsh. “We are actively exploring potential power upgrades at our existing facilities that could total as much as 300 megawatts,” as well as projects that could include a new, previously permitted nuclear reactor and small nuclear modular reactor (SMR) technology ventures, added the CEO.
With 18 analysts in coverage, ETR is a “Moderate Buy" on Wall Street. However, the shares closed nearly flat on Friday with their average price target of $149.03.
Nevertheless, with a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.67 - lower than its five-year average multiple, and the sector median - ETR looks like a reasonably valued investment in long-term nuclear energy upside right now.
On the date of publication, Ruchi Gupta did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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