Treasuries at 5% a Buy as Yields March Higher

ICE Brent pushed above US$77/bbl yesterday with sentiment still largely supportive following a stronger physical market, ING’s commodity analyst Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Strength in the market continues in early morning trading

“Concerns over Iranian and Russian oil flows will also be providing some support. There were reports yesterday that a port operator in Shandong, China, has told ports not to accept tankers sanctioned by the US. Refiners in the region are large buyers of Iranian crude oil and so if these ports follow through, it potentially provides more obstacles to Iranian oil flows.”

“Strength in the market continued in early morning trading today after API numbers showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4m barrels over the last week, while Cushing stocks declined by 3.1m barrels. It was less bullish on the product side with gasoline and distillate stocks increasing by 7.3m barrels and 3.2m barrels respectively. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.”

“European gas prices initially came under pressure yesterday with TTF trading just below EUR46/MWh. However, the market strengthened in the latter part of the trading session, which saw TTF settling marginally higher on the day. EU storage is 69% full at the moment, down from 85% at the same stage last year and below the five-year average of 75%. A faster-than-expected fall in inventory will leave the market nervous, particularly with the colder weather Europe is facing at the moment.”

Source: FXSTREET

Source: AP

Dollar regained some traction overnight, supported by strong services sector data that bolstered expectations for Fed to hold interest rates steady this month. Fed fund futures now imply a 95% probability of no rate cut in January, up from 90% last week. The upbeat economic performance placed moderate downward pressure on both equities and bonds, as markets reassess the Fed’s path. Attention now turns to Friday’s non-farm payroll report, which could finalize the case for the Fed’s January decision and shift market focus toward policy moves for the remainder of the year.

The upcoming release of FOMC December meeting minutes today is another critical event for traders. At the meeting, policymakers projected a median year-end federal funds rate target of 3.75%–4.00%, reflecting a 50bps reduction from current levels. The minutes are expected to provide valuable insight into Fed’s internal deliberations, shedding light on whether risks favor a steeper or shallower easing path in 2025. This will be key in shaping market expectations for monetary policy throughout the year.

Elsewhere, Australian Dollar is under pressure today following release of November monthly CPI data. While headline inflation ticked higher due to the fading impact of energy rebates, the slowdown in trimmed mean CPI—a key measure of core inflation—provided welcome evidence of disinflation. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted the notable improvement in services inflation, which fell from 4.8% to 4.2%. Market expectations for an RBA rate cut in February have now increased to 60%-75%, with traders leaning toward an earlier start to the central bank’s easing cycle, rather than the May timeline initially anticipated.

For the week so far, most major currency pairs remain confined within last week’s ranges. Yen, Swiss Franc, and Dollar are the weakest performers, while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, and New Zealand Dollar are showing relative strength. Euro and Australian Dollar are trading in the middle of the pack.

Technically, overall risk sentiment is a major focus for the rest of the week, for their reactions to FOMC minutes and NFP. NASDAQ is currently extending the consolidation pattern from 20204.58. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 18671.06 resistance turned support holds. The record-run up trend is expected to resume at a later stage.

Australian monthly CPI rises to 2.3%, but easing core pressures offer RBA relief

Australia’s monthly CPI rose from 2.1% yoy to 2.3% yoy in November, slightly above market expectations of 2.2%. Inflation excluding volatile items and holiday travel jumped from 2.4% yoy to 2.8% yoy. However, trimmed mean CPI, a measure closely watched by RBA, declined from 3.5% to 3.2%, signaling some relief in underlying inflationary pressures.

The rise in CPI was influenced by the reduced impact of government electricity rebates compared to previous months. According to Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics at ABS, Electricity prices were -21.5% lower in November, compared to a -35.6% annual fall in October.” Excluding government rebates, electricity prices would have declined by only -1.7% over the same period.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6210; (P) 0.6249; (R1) 0.6270; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Consolidation from 0.6178 could still extend with another rise to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6416). But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6178 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6169 key support will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006, and could have completed at 0.6941 already. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6587) holds.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

NZD/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction as traders now await FOMC meeting Minutes. 

The Fed’s hawkish shift remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and favors the USD bulls.

Geopolitical risks and trade war fears also contribute to capping the upside for risk-sensitive Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair stalls the previous day's retracement slide from a nearly three-week high, albeit it struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and trades around the 0.5630-0.5625 area during the early European session on Wednesday. Traders seem reluctant and opt to await the release of FOMC meeting Minutes before placing fresh directional bets. 

Traders on Wednesday will also confront a duo of US labor market report – the ADP report on private-sector employment and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight move-up led by the upbeat US data, which acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the 0.5585 area, or the lowest level since October 2022 touched last week.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a more hawkish stance at the end of the December policy meeting and signaled that it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025. This remains supportive of a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields and favors the USD bulls. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks, concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans and the US-China trade war support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the safe-haven buck. This, along with the cautious market mood, should contribute to capping the risk-sensitive Kiwi and the NZD/USD pair.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Source: FXSTREET

Above: PMI prices paid points to rising inflationary pressures.

Source: Poundsterlinglive