Trump Says 25% Tariffs on EU Will Be Announced Soon

Economic

Summary:

President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on EU goods, claiming the bloc harms U.S. interests, while the EU vows a firm response. He also hinted at postponing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a new deadline set for April 2.

US President Donald Trump has said he is planning to hit goods made in the European Union with tariffs of 25%, claiming the bloc was created to "screw the United States".

"We'll be announcing it very soon," he told reporters at an appearance with members of his cabinet. "It'll be 25% generally speaking and that will be on cars and all other things."

The European Union said it would react "firmly and immediately against unjustified tariffs".

Trump's appearance sparked questions about his trade plans, as he also appeared to raise the possibility that looming tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, set to come into force on 4 March, might be postponed again.

An administration official later said the deadline remained in place, with the president planning to review Mexico and Canada actions related to border security over the coming days.

Trump made clear on Wednesday that trade with Europe also remained in his sights, repeating his criticism of European policies, which he said put American exporters of food products and cars at a disadvantage.

"The European Union was formed to screw the United States - that's the purpose of it and they've done a good job of it," he said. "But now I'm president."

The EU rejected the president's claims, saying the creation of a regional market had made doing business in Europe easier for American firms.

"It has been a boon for the United States," a spokesperson for the commission said. "We're ready to partner if you play by the rules. But we will also protect our consumers and businesses at every turn. They expect no less from us."

What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?

Tariffs are a tax on imports that is collected by the government and paid for by the companies bringing in the goods.

Trump has vowed to use the levies to boost US manufacturing, raise money and push other countries to change policies he opposes.

But there are concerns such measures could fuel inflation, with warnings that Americans could face higher prices for goods as businesses may choose to pass on some or all of the cost of tariffs to customers.

Since taking office, he has raised tariffs of 10% on goods from China and taken steps to hit other imports with duties, including directing his staff to develop recommendations for custom "reciprocal" tariffs for each country.

But he has also suspended some of those plans, leaving many businesses and analysts guessing as to whether he is prepared to carry out his threats.

"The 25% threat that he threw out today is in line with the high end of the range that he previously indicated," said Tobin Marcus, head of US policy and politics at Wolfe Research.

"It's a number that's concerning - certainly should be concerning - for the trans-Atlantic trade relationship, but not totally out of the blue."

'Worried, not afraid'

Antonin Finkelnburg, of the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services which represents businesses, told the BBC that a 25% tariff on EU goods entering the US would created a "difficult" but "not an impossible" situation for Germany's economy.

"We are worried but we shouldn't be afraid," he told the BBC's Today programme.

Germany's car industry's products are popular in the US.

Mr Finkelnburg said many German car manufacturers were "already producing in the American market, so they wouldn't be directly affected by the tariffs", but said tariffs would still drive up prices.

"The car parts that are manufactured in to those cars are crossing the borders of Mexico and Canada several times so that already is driving the prices up," he added.

Earlier this month, Trump ordered 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, America's top two trading partners. But he suspended the duties before they went into effect until 4 March, to allow for talks on border security.

On Monday, Trump said he expected tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada to come into effect "on schedule".

At Wednesday's meeting, when asked for an update, he said the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect on 2 April.

That is the same day that the Commerce Department is supposed to deliver its wider recommendations for "reciprocal" tariffs.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that "the overall is April 2" , distinguishing between tariffs tied to concerns about drug trafficking and migration from Mexico and Canada.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all headed lower in mid-day trade, while the peso and Canadian dollar gained.

Source: BBC

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Alex

Economic

Forex

Price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, probably between 148.55 and 149.75. In the longer run, USD weakness has not stabilised vs Japanese Yen (JPY); pace of any further decline is likely slower. The next level to monitor is 147.70, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD weakness has not stabilised

24-HOUR VIEW: "After USD plummeted to 148.56 on Tuesday and then rebounded, we indicated yesterday (Wednesday) that 'despite the sharp drop from the high, there has been no significant increase in momentum.' However, we were of the view that 'there is a chance for USD to retest the 148.55 level.' USD subsequently briefly dipped to 148.61, rebounded to 149.88, and then pulled back to close largely unchanged at 149.08 (+0.04%). The price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, probably between 148.55 and 149.75."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (26 Feb, spot at 149.15) is still valid. As highlighted, although the USD weakness from early last week has not stabilised, oversold conditions suggest the pace of any further decline is likely to be slower. Overall, only a breach of 150.20 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 150.55 yesterday) would indicate that the weakness has stabilised. Until then, there is a chance for USD to drop further, possibly to 147.70."

Source: FXSTREET

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The U.S. dollar firmed in Asia on Thursday and Treasury yields ticked higher as investors assessed the outlook for tariffs and the economy under U.S. President Donald Trump.

Asian stocks were overall weaker in volatile trading, with tech shares around the region getting little steer from heavyweight U.S. chipmaker and artificial intelligence darling Nvidia's earnings.

Cryptocurrency bitcoin languished near the $85,000 mark, while safe-haven gold was steady some $64 an ounce below its record high as trade war worries kept market sentiment fragile.

Trump clouded the outlook for looming levies on top trading partners Canada and Mexico on Wednesday by signalling they would take effect on April 2, which would be another month-long extension.

However a White House official later said the previous March 2 deadline for the levies remained in effect "as of this moment", stirring further uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose to 4.09%, finding their footing following a slump to the lowest since November 1 at 4.065% in the prior session. The 10-year yield rose to 4.2809% from a low of 4.245% on Wednesday, a 2-1/2-month trough.

The dollar and U.S. yields have been under pressure in recent weeks as a run of soft economic indicators have combined with growth worries arising from Trump's tariff plans.

Traders have raised bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in recent days, now seeing two quarter-point reductions this year, with the first likely in July and the next as early as October.

Markets will look at GDP and durable orders data due on Thursday for any stronger signs of slowdown, while the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, is due on Friday.

"Markets are starting to feel less confidence about U.S. growth," said Shoki Omori, chief global desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"I think U.S. data surprises will continue to be towards the downside," although as economists start to adjust their forecasts towards weaker outcomes, and with inflation still "sticky", 10-year Treasury yields are unlikely to fall below 4%, Omori said.

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, rose 0.24% to 106.70, continuing its climb off a 2 1/2-month low of 106.12, reached earlier this week.

In equities, Japan's Nikkei added 0.25% and Australia's benchmark index rose 0.33%. However, South Korea's Kospi slid 0.91% and Taiwan shares dropped 1.49%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng flipped between gains and losses to last trade little changed. Mainland blue chips eased 0.2%.

Pan-European STOXX 50 futures shed 0.5%.

U.S. Nasdaq futures pointed 0.3% higher following a 0.3% rise in the regular session overnight, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% after the cash index ended the day flat.

Nvidia shares slipped 1.5% in extended trading following a 3.7% rally in regular trading on Wednesday. After the closing bell, the chipmaker published a strong growth forecast for the first quarter, although investors are accustomed to big beats from the company.

"Nvidia's earnings came with much less volatility than expected," said IG analyst Jun Rong Yeap.

"The absence of major surprises may have kept sentiment relatively calm," Yeap said.

"Sellers may find fault with its slight gross margin decline, but ... note that this stems from newer data centre products - ultimately beneficial for long-term growth."

Bitcoin edged up to $85,835 following a nearly 12% tumble over the first three days of this week.

Bitcoin bull Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, cautioned against buying the dip just yet in a note to clients.

"Stay patient," he said. "These types of losses rarely end well and I still think the big capitulation is yet to come."

Gold eased back to $2,891 per ounce.

Crude oil ticked up from two-month lows it hit following a surprise build in U.S. fuel stockpiles.

Brent crude futures added 0.3% to $72.75 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures gained 0.17% to $68.74.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Economic

Forex

EUR/USD falls to near 1.0460 as US President Trump reiterates threats to impose 25% tariffs on cars and other imports from the Eurozone.

The US Dollar steadies as Trump tariff threats have improved its safe-haven appeal.

Investors await the US PCE inflation data for January and preliminary HICP data of major Eurozone nations for February, scheduled on Friday.

EUR/USD faces pressure below the psychological level of 1.0500 in European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair drops as United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterated tariff threats on the Eurozone.

President Trump said in a press conference on Wednesday that he will announce 25% tariffs on “cars and other things” on the Eurozone “very soon.” However, Trump didn’t provide a timeline for the tariff imposition.

In response to Trump’s tariff threats, a European Commission (EC) spokesperson said, "The EU will react firmly and immediately against unjustified barriers to free and fair trade, including when tariffs are used to challenge legal and non-discriminatory policies.”

A tariff war between the US and the Eurozone would make the Eurozone economy vulnerable to growth, which is already fractured due to weak demand. Such a scenario would weigh on the Euro (EUR).

Meanwhile, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations to form a German coalition government has also kept the Euro (EUR) on the backfoot. Victorious Frederich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) will most likely form the government with outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).

On Wednesday, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of a meeting of G20 finance chiefs that the new German government should address “structural faults” in the economy quickly to improve “Germany’s competitiveness”.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains on backfoot as US Dollar steadies

EUR/USD stays under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto Wednesday’s gains. Tariff threats from President Donald Trump to the Eurozone have improved safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. However, the upside in the USD remains capped due to an increase in Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets.

In Thursday’s session, investors will focus on US Durable Goods Orders for January, Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending February 21, and the revised Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

Market participants have become increasingly confident that the Fed could reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting after keeping in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in the March and May meetings. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 68% chance that the Fed can reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting.

Traders raised bets supporting the Fed resuming the policy-easing cycle in June due to a decline in the US service sector activity in February, according to the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report. Also, a sharp decline in the Consumer Confidence data in February has raised concerns over the Fed maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer. For more cues on the interest rate outlook, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for January, which will be released on Friday.

On the Eurozone front, investors await the flash inflation data of Germany and its six states, France and Italy, for February, which will be released on Friday. The inflation data will influence market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces pressure above 1.0500

EUR/USD stays in a tight range at around 1.0500 on Thursday as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to support the major currency pair around 1.0440.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles below the 60.00 level. A bullish momentum would activate if the RSI (14) manages to sustain above that level.

Looking down, the February 10 low of 1.0285 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

Source: FXSTREET

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Global economic headwinds, trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and persistent inflation are reshaping the outlook for economies in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) regions.

In a report released on Thursday, the Bank has cut its 2025 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 3.2%, citing weaker external demand in central Europe, the Baltic states and south-eastern European countries, as well as ongoing conflicts, and sluggish reforms in the southern and eastern Mediterranean area.

While Inflation has eased from its 2022 peak, fiscal imbalances and trade disruptions are fuelling fresh uncertainties, according to the institution.

Where is economic growth slowing?

The EBRD has revised its 2025 growth forecast downward across most regions, reflecting weaker external demand, slowing investment, and trade uncertainty.

Aggregate growth for EBRD economies is now expected to reach 3.2% in 2025, down from the 3.5% forecast in September 2024. EBRD Cuts 2025 Growth Forecast as Trade Risks Weigh on Investments_1

EBRD Cuts 2025 Growth Forecast as Trade Risks Weigh on Investments_1

In central Europe and the Baltic states, GDP is now expected to grow by 2.7%, 0.5 points below the previous forecast, as the slower-than-expected recovery in advanced Europe dampens manufacturing, exports, and investment.

South-eastern EU economies, which struggled with weak external demand and lower investment in 2024, are now projected to grow by 2.1%, a sharp 0.6-point downgrade. The Western Balkans faces a milder revision, with growth now seen at 3.6%, 0.1 points lower than before.

Central Asia remains the fastest-growing EBRD region, though its 2025 forecast has been trimmed by 0.2 points to 5.7%, reflecting slower activity in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Within the region, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are set to expand by 7%, leading growth across EBRD economies.

In eastern Europe and the Caucasus, the post-pandemic and wartime trade boom is fading, leading to a 0.5-point cut in the 2025 forecast to 3.6%. The southern and eastern Mediterranean, weighed down by geopolitical instability and sluggish reform progress, is now expected to grow by 3.7%, down 0.2 points.

Turkey's 2025 growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%, with expectations of a recovery to 3.5% in 2026 as inflation moderates and real wages rise.

Trade tariffs to reshape global investment flows

Trade uncertainty is a central risk in the EBRD's report. A scenario where Washington raises tariffs on all imports by 10 percentage points could shave 0.1 to 0.2% off GDP across EBRD regions in the short term, the Bank estimates.

Economies with strong trade links to the US - including Jordan, Slovakia, Hungary, and Lithuania - could face immediate economic pressure, while Georgia, Albania, Egypt, and Bulgaria are particularly vulnerable to higher US tariffs on steel and aluminium.

The report also notes that some economies with preferential access to the US market may benefit if tariffs are applied selectively. Trade diversion could steer investment toward these countries, boosting foreign direct investment as businesses seek to avoid higher costs.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions have sharply reduced trade and investment between the US-led West and the China/Russia-led East, accelerating the fragmentation of global economic ties. Both the US and China are redirecting capital toward so-called "connector" economies - countries that maintain trade and investment links with both blocs.

Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are emerging as key winners in this shifting landscape, attracting rising levels of foreign investment as global supply chains realign.

Inflation down but not out

After surging to 17.5% in late 2022, inflation across EBRD regions has cooled to 5.9% as of December 2024. Yet, it remains over a percentage point above pre-pandemic levels.

"While inflation has dropped notably, the sources of inflationary pressures have shifted", says Beata Javorcik, the EBRD's Chief Economist.

Slower-than-expected declines in interest rates, particularly in the United States, have added complexity to the economic outlook for emerging markets.

Many economies in EBRD regions took advantage of earlier low rates to extend debt maturities and increase local currency borrowing. Still, some remain highly vulnerable to external shocks, particularly Lebanon, Mongolia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which hold significant portions of short-term and US dollar-denominated debt.

Fiscal challenges and rising defence spending

Fiscal imbalances are another concern. The aggregate fiscal balance across EBRD economies has deteriorated by 2.2 percentage points since the pre-pandemic period, with deficits expected to stabilise at elevated levels in 2025.

The strain comes from multiple sources: rising government spending on industrial policies, the fiscal burden of ageing populations, and a sharp increase in defence expenditures.

Military spending in EBRD regions has nearly doubled over the past decade, climbing from 1.8% of GDP in 2014 to 3.5% in 2023, with further increases likely.

"Fiscal policy and wage dynamics now play a much greater role, and the path ahead requires careful policy calibration to ensure a stable growth trajectory", Javorcik said.

Source: Euronews

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks fell in early trade on Thursday as investors waded through a barrage of earnings reports.

At 0840 GMT, the FTSE 100 was down 0.3% at 8,689.61.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "As concerns swirl about the latest tariff threats emanating from the White House, this time in the direction of the EU, there’s set to be a subdued start to trading as investors mull the repercussions.

"The FTSE 100 has opened lower, as caution remains the name of the game amid a murky outlook for the global economy."

Speaking at his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on the EU, saying that details of the tariffs would be released soon.

In equity markets, Barclays, Diageo, Unilever and Ashmore all fell as they traded without entitlement to the dividend.

WPP tumbled as the advertising giant reported a drop in full-year revenues and said like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs for 2025 were expected to be flat to 2% lower.

St James’s Place lost ground despite saying it swung to a full-year profit, while consumer healthcare firm Haleon was down even as it reiterated its full-year outlook after posting improved full-year sales and profits.

Ocado slid even as it announced narrower full-year losses driven by strong rises in revenue at its retail and technology divisions and saying it expected to turn cash flow positive by fiscal 2026.

Howden Joinery was weaker as it reported broadly stable full-year profits and revenue in a "challenging" market, but announced a new £100m share buyback.

Wood Group fell as it announced the appointment of Iain Torrens as interim chief financial officer following the sudden resignation of Arvind Balan last week, which was put down to an incorrect description of his professional qualifications in various statements in the public domain.

The appointment comes just days after Wood Group confirmed it had received a takeover approach from Dubai’s Sidara.

Taylor Wimpey edged lower as it posted a fall in annual revenues and profits but said it had seen a "robust" start to the new year as demand picked up.

On the upside, Rolls-Royce surged to the top of the FTSE 100 as it lifted mid-term guidance and unveiled a £1bn share buyback as annual profits jumped, driven by its civil aerospace unit. It also announced its first dividend since the Covid-19 pandemic.

London Stock Exchange and Aviva both gained on the back of better-than-expected results, while Serco and Man Group were also higher after result

Source: Sharecast

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Justin

Economic

In the US, 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP will be released in the afternoon. The flash release showed GDP growth cooling to 2.3%, but with private consumption growth remaining solid. Several Fed speeches are also scheduled for today, including ones from Hammack, Harker, Barkin and Schmid.

In the euro area, we look out for data on credit and money growth in January. Credit growth will indicate the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy, thus serving as a notable datapoint for the ECB.

In Spain, inflation data for February is released, providing signals of the euro area print on Monday. We expect inflation to decline in February due to lower energy inflation and services inflation. Services inflation is expected to decline significantly in the coming months due to base effects from the large increases recorded in the same months last year.

In Norway, we expect Norges Bank’s Expectations Survey to show that inflation expectations will continue to fall in both the short and long term. We will also focus on the wage expectations of the labour market organizations for 2025 and 2026. We are also keeping an eye on whether the preliminary employment figures for January will confirm the weak trend seen in December, or whether it was noise.

In Sweden, we receive the Economic Tendency Indicator from the National Institute of Economic Research. We will be looking closely at the companies’ pricing plans following yesterday’s high PPI figures and last week’s high inflation figures. Data on the trade balance and household lending is also released.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the US, mixed signals came from the White House, as President Trump reportedly opened the door for postponing the tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, stressing they could take effect on 2 April. Conversely, a White House official stated that Trump’s initial 4 March deadline remained in effect. Simultaneously, Trump also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on EU goods – “that will be on cars and all other things”. All in all, the ambiguous tariff signals could suggest that Trump is using them as a negotiation tool, also underscored by a modest market reaction to the remarks. Hence, tariff uncertainty remains.

In geopolitics, President Zelenskyy was on the wire, emphasizing that the success of the minerals deal with the US hinges on this upcoming talks with President Trump. At the same time, Zelenskyy reiterated statements from his deputy prime minister and justice minister, noting that the agreement is part of broader deals with the US, while it could also be included in future security guarantees. Trump confirmed that Zelenskyy will travel to the US on Friday to sign the deal but indicated that the US would not provide any far-reaching security guarantees, saying that Europe should take on that responsibility.

We are hosting a webinar today at 09:30-10:00, guiding you through the status and what to expect in terms of possible outcomes and the channels of economic impact. To listen in, please use the following link: Webinar – The new security disorder in Europe – what are the economic implications?, 27 February.

In the euro area, the EU commission presented its “Clean Industrial Deal” comprising its business plan for reviewing economic growth and achieving decarbonisation by unlocking investments in clean industries. The deal aims to boost demand for made-in-Europe products, making energy more affordable, securing access to raw materials, and sharply cut the number of SME companies affected by reporting requirements. We do not expect to a short-term impact on growth from the deal, since there is no significant increase in public spending as part of the plan. The Commission aims at mobilising EUR 100bn (which is merely 0.6% of EU GDP) for EU clean manufacturing in “short-term relief”, but is unclear where the money should come from, and it will mostly likely be mainly private capital as the EU faces financing constraints. All in all, any effect of the deal is years out in the future, but it will likely be positive.

Equities: The rotation into Europe continued Wednesday. S&P 500 closed unchanged while Stoxx 600 gained a full 1%. Despite new tariff threats, US markets stopped the bleeding following four-straight declines, with most indices modestly higher. Another sign that investors have recovered was renewed cyclical preference in the sector space. Cyclicals beat defensives by a full 1% globally. This was led by tech consumer discretionary and banks. The Nvidia earnings report helped pushing back AI capex bubble concerns, after crushing earnings expectations and upbeat commentary. US futures are a notch higher this morning.

FI: Another trading session with a mild bid for European duration, amid concerns about the (particularly) US growth outlook. Since late last week with disappointing US macro data, 10y UST has declined more than 30bp to 4.25%. At the same time, 10y Bunds have declined “only” 10bp, thereby narrowing the transatlantic spread to 181bp. Last night it was reported that the potential US tariff hikes have been postponed to early April. On the data front, we get Spanish inflation releases today for February.

FX: JPY, GBP and USD gained yesterday, where Scandies and AUD and NZD lost on a day whene risk sentiment overall was mixed. EUR/USD traded close to 1.05, EUR/SEK climbed above 11.15 and EUR/NOK hovered around 11.70.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Trump Says 25% Tariffs on EU Will Be Announced Soon

What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?

'Worried, not afraid'

Source: BBC

USD/JPY: Weakness Has Not Stabilised

Source: FXSTREET

Dollar Firms on U.S. Tariff Anxiety; Nvidia Gives Little Steer to Stocks

Source: Reuters

EUR/USD Drops as Trump Reiterates Tariff Threats on Eurozone

Source: FXSTREET

EBRD Cuts 2025 Growth Forecast as Trade Risks Weigh on Investments

Where is economic growth slowing?

Trade tariffs to reshape global investment flows

Inflation down but not out

Fiscal challenges and rising defence spending

Source: Euronews

London Open: Stocks Fall Amid Barrage of Earnings News; Rolls-Royce Surges

Source: Sharecast

Focus on US GDP and Fed Speak

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Disclosure