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Financial stocks are basking in a post-election rally after Donald Trump's election win as investors anticipate a friendlier regulatory landscape for banks, brokers and consumer finance companies.
With expectations of deregulation and possible tax cuts, traders are piling into financials at levels not seen in years.
The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund jumped over 5% last week, hitting fresh record highs, while weekly inflows surged to $1.573 billion—the highest in over two years.
Regional banks, in particular, were on fire, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF skyrocketing nearly 11% and seeing $1.09 billion in inflows, marking its largest influx of money since March 2023.
Key Drivers: Deregulation, Tax Cuts Fuel Investor Optimism
Investors are betting on a wave of Trump-favored financial reforms that could benefit the sector.
Richard Ramsden, a Goldman Sachs analyst, highlighted that "the market is pricing in the potential for changes to a number of proposed regulations, a step up in capital markets activity, as well as the potential for a reduction in the corporate tax rate."
Potential regulatory changes under Trump could include:
Goldman Sachs's Top Picks Among Financials Stocks
In anticipation of these shifts, Ramsden and his team have identified several top picks across the financial sector.
Here's where they see the biggest potential gains:
Steeper Yield Curve Expected to Boost Regional Banks
As markets react to potential economic stimulus and reduced regulatory pressure, analysts anticipate a steeper yield curve, which could be a windfall for banks with heavy exposure to fixed-rate assets.
Around 60% of both regional and large banks' balance sheets consist of fixed-rate holdings, positioning them to profit as long-term rates rise.
Ramsden's picks for banks that stand to gain the most from a steeper yield curve include:
Regional Banks:
Surge in Capital Velocity: M&A and Trading Boost Expected
Trump's pro-business stance is also expected to accelerate capital velocity in the M&A and equity capital markets, providing a strong backdrop for trading activity.
According to Ramsden, large banks like Morgan Stanley could be the biggest beneficiaries, while among regional banks, KeyCorp and Citizens Financial Group Inc. stand out.
Investment banks could also see a boost, with Jefferies Financial Group Inc. , Moelis & Co. , PJT Partners Inc. , and Piper Sandler Companies positioned to capitalize on a more active M&A market.
In the alternative asset management space, Carlyle Group Inc. , KKR, Apollo, TPG Inc. , and Ares Management Corp. are expected to benefit from an uptick in private equity deal flow.
Tax Cut Hopes Could Supercharge Regional Banks
Financial stocks are uniquely positioned to benefit from any corporate tax reductions, given that 90% of their earnings come from the U.S. and are currently taxed at an average rate of 23%. After the 2017 tax reform slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, financials saw their effective tax rate drop by 10 percentage points.
Ramsden estimates that if the Trump administration pursues another tax cut, regional banks would likely see the most significant upside.
His top tax-cut beneficiaries include Moelis & Co. , American Express Co. , Evercore Inc., Bread Financial Holdings, Piper Sandler, First Citizens BancShares Inc. , Synovus Financial Corp. , and Western Alliance Bancorporation .
Insurers to Benefit from Steeper Curve, P&C Pricing Power
The insurance sector may also stand to gain under Trump's pro-business policies. Ramsden expects potential increases in claim costs but sees positive momentum for property and casualty pricing.
Insurers with substantial U.S. exposure and a favorable position on the yield curve could see tailwinds.
Ramsden's picks in the insurance space include W.R. Berkley Corp. , Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. , and The Travelers Companies Inc. , which he believes are better positioned than brokers to benefit from these trends.
Read Next:
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney and Shutterstock.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Investors interested in stocks from the Financial - Investment Management sector have probably already heard of T. Rowe Price (TROW) and Ares Management (ARES). But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look.
There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank favors stocks with strong earnings estimate revision trends, and our Style Scores highlight companies with specific traits.
Right now, T. Rowe Price is sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while Ares Management has a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell). The Zacks Rank favors stocks that have recently seen positive revisions to their earnings estimates, so investors should rest assured that TROW has an improving earnings outlook. But this is just one piece of the puzzle for value investors.
Value investors also tend to look at a number of traditional, tried-and-true figures to help them find stocks that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.
The Style Score Value grade factors in a variety of key fundamental metrics, including the popular P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a number of other key stats that are commonly used by value investors.
TROW currently has a forward P/E ratio of 12.62, while ARES has a forward P/E of 41.83. We also note that TROW has a PEG ratio of 1.71. This figure is similar to the commonly-used P/E ratio, with the PEG ratio also factoring in a company's expected earnings growth rate. ARES currently has a PEG ratio of 1.87.
Another notable valuation metric for TROW is its P/B ratio of 2.50. The P/B ratio pits a stock's market value against its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. For comparison, ARES has a P/B of 10.24.
These metrics, and several others, help TROW earn a Value grade of B, while ARES has been given a Value grade of F.
TROW has seen stronger estimate revision activity and sports more attractive valuation metrics than ARES, so it seems like value investors will conclude that TROW is the superior option right now.
Zacks Investment Research
Investors with an interest in Insurance - Property and Casualty stocks have likely encountered both Travelers (TRV) and CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (CCCS). But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look.
There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The proven Zacks Rank puts an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions, while our Style Scores work to identify stocks with specific traits.
Currently, Travelers has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Investors should feel comfortable knowing that TRV likely has seen a stronger improvement to its earnings outlook than CCCS has recently. But this is just one factor that value investors are interested in.
Value investors also tend to look at a number of traditional, tried-and-true figures to help them find stocks that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.
The Style Score Value grade factors in a variety of key fundamental metrics, including the popular P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a number of other key stats that are commonly used by value investors.
TRV currently has a forward P/E ratio of 13.86, while CCCS has a forward P/E of 30.96. We also note that TRV has a PEG ratio of 1.24. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. CCCS currently has a PEG ratio of 2.84.
Another notable valuation metric for TRV is its P/B ratio of 2.11. The P/B ratio pits a stock's market value against its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. For comparison, CCCS has a P/B of 3.68.
These metrics, and several others, help TRV earn a Value grade of A, while CCCS has been given a Value grade of F.
TRV has seen stronger estimate revision activity and sports more attractive valuation metrics than CCCS, so it seems like value investors will conclude that TRV is the superior option right now.
Zacks Investment Research
Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD shares have surged 30% since the beginning of this month and touched a 52-week high of $30.63 during Friday’s trading session. Over the past three months, the stock has surged 64.7%, outperforming the industry, the S&P 500 Index and its close peers — The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW and LPL Financial Holdings Inc. LPLA.
Three-Month Price Performance
Does HOOD stock have more upside left despite hitting a 52-week high? Let’s try to decipher that.
Factors Likely to Drive Robinhood Stock Higher
Presidential Election Results to Aid Revenues: On Nov. 5, U.S. presidential elections were held, resulting in a victory for Donald Trump. Given the favorable stance of the new regime toward cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose to an all-time high.
This will aid Robinhood’s cryptocurrency revenues as new investors will be attracted to the cryptocurrencies to boost their returns and leverage the benefit of diversification as an asset class as well. During the first nine months of 2024, the company’s cryptocurrency revenues were $268 million, constituting 13.8% of total net revenues. Over four years (2019-2023), the metric witnessed a 94.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Transaction-Based Revenues Components
Image Source: Robinhood Markets Inc.
The expansionary stance of the President-elect fueled the equity markets rally, with the S&P 500 index hitting an all-time high and crossing the 6,000 mark for the first time on Friday. This is expected to further contribute to the increase in Robinhood’s transaction-based revenues, driven by higher equity market participation.
Robinhood’s total net revenues have witnessed a CAGR of 61% over the last four years (2019-2023). Transaction-based revenues witnessed a 46.4% CAGR over the same period. Given the company’s focus on transaction-based revenues combined with its commission-free model and supportive outlook of the incoming administration, its revenues are likely to move higher.
Total Revenue Segregation
Image Source: Robinhood Markets Inc.
Business Diversification Efforts: Robinhood became extremely popular among younger generations riding on the meme stock wave in early 2021. Nonetheless, since its IPO in July 2021, the company has taken several steps to evolve from merely being a brokerage firm to a more mature and diversified entity by expanding into retirement and credit card accounts.
In July 2024, Robinhood acquired Pluto Capital Inc. With the integration of Pluto’s advanced capabilities, the company is set to revolutionize the investment experience for its users.
In sync with this, the company announced plans to acquire Bitstamp in June 2024. Bitstamp's core spot exchange, which features more than 85 tradable assets, coupled with its popularity in Europe and Asia, will significantly enhance Robinhood’s crypto offerings.
Additionally, the company launched its trading app in the U.K. and its first-ever credit card this March. Last month, HOOD announced plans to expand its cryptocurrency offerings by introducing futures trading for Bitcoin and Ether. Further, it plans to introduce UK Stock investing to British users.
HOOD Rewards Shareholders: In May, Robinhood announced a share buyback plan. The company’s board of directors approved a share repurchase program, authorizing it to buy back up to $1 billion of its outstanding common stock.
While the plan doesn’t have an expiration date, the company expects to buy back shares within two to three years. As of Sept. 30, 2024, roughly $903 million worth of authorization remained available for repurchase.
Robinhood is on solid ground, with significant cash reserves. As of Sept. 30, 2024, it reported cash and cash equivalents of $4.6 billion.
Cash & Investments Sequential Trend
Image Source: Robinhood Markets Inc.
Regulatory Headwinds
Robinhood's push into the global crypto market comes amid ongoing regulatory challenges in the United States. This September, the company agreed to pay $3.9 million as a settlement with the California Department of Justice over crypto withdrawals. It was alleged that the company prevented its customers from withdrawing cryptocurrency from their accounts between 2018 and 2022.
Additionally, in May 2024, the company received a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission concerning the tokens traded on its platform, reflecting the complex regulatory landscape for crypto firms.
The notice came because of the alleged violation of registrations as a securities broker and transfer agent.
Likewise, this July, LPLA’s unit was sued by Ameriprise Financial for malpractice and mishandling of private and confidential client data and recruiting advisors while violating legal, regulatory and industry obligations.
Bearish Analyst Sentiments
Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 71 cents and 78 cents per share for 2024 and 2025, respectively, moved 6.6% and 4.9% downward. Nonetheless, the projected figures imply growth of 216.4% for 2024 and 9.9% for 2025.
Estimate Revision Trend
On the other hand, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SCHW’s 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 1.3% and 1.1% upward, respectively, over the past month.
Parting Thoughts on HOOD Stock
Robinhood’s solid revenue growth, organic and inorganic growth efforts to diversify the business, and strong balance sheet will aid the company’s financials. Moreover, the newly elected governmental regime will further reinforce the company’s efforts to improve its top line through product diversification. However, the company’s regulatory headwinds and rising operating expenses amid growth initiatives are major concerns.
Thus, HOOD stock remains a cautious bet for investors now. Those who already own it can hold it for now.
HOOD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
The proven Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks. Nevertheless, we know that our readers all have their own perspectives, so we are always looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong picks.
Considering these trends, value investing is clearly one of the most preferred ways to find strong stocks in any type of market. Value investors use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are being undervalued by the market at large.
In addition to the Zacks Rank, investors looking for stocks with specific traits can utilize our Style Scores system. Of course, value investors will be most interested in the system's "Value" category. Stocks with "A" grades for Value and high Zacks Ranks are among the best value stocks available at any given moment.
One company value investors might notice is NMI (NMIH). NMIH is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), as well as an A grade for Value.
Another valuation metric that we should highlight is NMIH's P/B ratio of 1.45. Investors use the P/B ratio to look at a stock's market value versus its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. NMIH's current P/B looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/B of 1.64. Within the past 52 weeks, NMIH's P/B has been as high as 1.63 and as low as 1.20, with a median of 1.33.
Finally, investors should note that NMIH has a P/CF ratio of 8.37. This data point considers a firm's operating cash flow and is frequently used to find companies that are undervalued when considering their solid cash outlook. NMIH's P/CF compares to its industry's average P/CF of 11.93. NMIH's P/CF has been as high as 9.38 and as low as 6.91, with a median of 7.70, all within the past year.
The Travelers Companies (TRV) may be another strong Insurance - Property and Casualty stock to add to your shortlist. TRV is a # 2 (Buy) stock with a Value grade of A.
The Travelers Companies is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 12.53 at the moment, with a PEG ratio of 1.12. This compares to its industry's average P/E of 28.75 and average PEG ratio of 2.89.
TRV's price-to-earnings ratio has been as high as 17.36 and as low as 10.57, with a median of 11.61, while its PEG ratio has been as high as 1.71 and as low as 0.98, with a median of 1.07, all within the past year.
Additionally, The Travelers Companies has a P/B ratio of 2.07 while its industry's price-to-book ratio sits at 1.64. For TRV, this valuation metric has been as high as 2.22, as low as 1.75, with a median of 1.99 over the past year.
These figures are just a handful of the metrics value investors tend to look at, but they help show that NMI and The Travelers Companies are likely being undervalued right now. Considering this, as well as the strength of its earnings outlook, NMIH and TRV feels like a great value stock at the moment.
Zacks Investment Research
Financial stocks were advancing premarket Monday with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund over 1% higher recently.
The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares was up 3% and its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares was 3% lower.
Deutsche Bank fired 111 senior managers in its retail and private wealth business on Monday, the Financial Times reported, as the company aims to reduce its cost-to-income ratio to between 60% and 65% in 2025. Deutsche Bank shares were up 2% pre-bell.
Tradeweb Markets shares were 0.7% lower after the company said it is working with the Tokyo Stock Exchange to improve liquidity access for institutional investors in Japanese exchange-traded funds.
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