UK Wage Growth Stays Strong but Job Market Dims, Confirming BoE Outlook

Economic

Summary:

Private sector pay growth watched by BoE as a gauge of inflation.

British pay growth stayed stubbornly strong in the three months to November but there were more signs of a softening jobs market, according to data on Tuesday that reinforced the current outlook for Bank of England interest rates.

Growth in private-sector pay excluding bonuses - a measure watched closely by the BoE as a gauge of domestic inflation pressure - rose to 6.0% in the three months to November from 5.5% in the three months to October.

It was the strongest reading since February 2024 and suggested that the central bank's forecast of 5.1% for the fourth quarter as a whole will be overshot by a wide margin.

Sterling and market expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut on Feb. 6 were largely unmoved by the data.

Economists and investors expect the BoE to cut its main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5% on Feb. 6, and economists polled by Reuters expect three further cuts this year, while markets expect one or two more after February.

While pay growth pointed to persistent inflationary pressure, other measures of the health of the labour market have pointed in the opposite direction.

Several business surveys have shown a sharp fall in the outlook for employment since finance minister Rachel Reeves announced big tax increases on employers in her Oct. 30 budget.

Tuesday's data showed the jobless rate rose slightly to 4.4% in the three months to November, its highest since the three months to May, as expected in a Reuters poll of economists.

However, the survey used for calculating the unemployment rate is in the process of being overhauled after response rates fell too low to be a reliable gauge of the jobs market.

Separate data provided by employers to the tax authorities showed the number of employees dropped by 47,000 in December, the sharpest fall since November 2020 and following a 32,000 drop a month earlier.

"The latest figures show a familiar combination of strong wage growth despite further cooling in the labour market, with vacancies falling and an uptick in unemployment. Sticky wage growth remains a key concern for the Bank of England," said Jack Kennedy, economist at Indeed, an online jobs portal.

Pay growth for the whole economy, excluding bonuses, was 5.6% higher in the three months to the end of November than a year earlier, the strongest reading since the three months to May 2024. A Reuters poll had pointed to regular wage growth of 5.5%.

Britain's economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2024, when the prospect of big tax rises in the Labour government's budget hit companies, and the BoE estimates there was zero growth in the final quarter of 2024 too.

Source: Reuters

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Owen Li

Economic

Dollar’s share of global reserves set to fall further over next 10 years

The latest Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserve data from the International Monetary Fund show that the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 57.4% in Q3 2024 (Figure 1). This is the smallest share since 1994 and represents a decline of almost nine percentage points during the last decade.

The key driver of this move has been a reaction to the increased weaponisation of the dollar. This has always been an aspect of its ‘exorbitant privilege’ but has grown in importance since the 11 September 2001 terror attacks and reached a peak in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Figure 1. Dollar’s share of global reserves fell by 9pp over last decade

Dollar’s share of global reserve currencies, %

Weaponisation will also be a factor behind the next 10% decline in the dollar share. The US is in the enviable position of being able to use financial assets to achieve foreign policy, or sometimes military objectives, without deploying soldiers. Hence, national security goals can be achieved relatively cheaply.

However, as early as 2017, then US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew acknowledged that the use of this weapon will push some players to avoid the dollar in the future, thereby reducing the extent of dollar dominance.

Academics have been successful in forecasting the gradual decline in dollar dominance since the year 2000 but have been hopeless at forecasting which currencies would benefit. Many have been in search of a single winner, when the reality has been that a wide array of currencies have benefitted. This pattern will continue.

The top 10 countdown

It is the small currencies that have taken up most of the slack in the last decade. Some of these, such as the Japanese yen, UK sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, are named in the IMF COFER report. All five of them will grow as the US dollar’s share declines.

Figure 2. Smaller currencies have profited from dollar’s smaller share

The category that may continue to do best is described in the IMF data as ‘other’. These are non-traditional currencies that are currently not specifically measured in the data.

A non-traditional currency that will grow is the South Korean won. South Korea is the 12th largest nation in the world in terms of gross domestic product. Geopolitically, it is an important cog in the US association of like-minded nations. In May 2024 it was announced that South Korea was in talks to join the military security partnership between the US, UK and Australia known as AUKUS. Security agreements as well as trade flows (and the financial flows that mirror these) underpin the argument for the won.

A new name on the list for the next decade is the Indian rupee. India is the fifth biggest economy and most populous nation on earth. Size counts in this debate, as we saw a decade ago with the initial adoption and enthusiasm for China’s renminbi.

India is ‘non-aligned’, and keen to have cordial relations with a wide list of nations. It is in an unusual position. On one hand, it is part of the Quad security arrangement (with the US, Japan and Australia). On the other hand, India is a key member of the Brics group and since 2022 has had a close oil trading relationship with Russia. However, it also has land border tensions with fellow Brics member China.

Comparisons to the internationalisation of the renminbi are instructive. The Chinese currency began to be held as a reserve currency by central banks from 2010 onwards despite a lack of currency convertibility. While not a substitute for deep, liquid and open capital markets, large foreign exchange reserves help to dampen currency volatility and enhance the argument for investing in the new currency.

Large foreign exchange reserves may provide comfort to global central banks who are looking to diversify their currency exposure into the rupee. This is a bold forecast – but a small slice of this story will benefit the rupee.

The euro and renminbi will also win, albeit modestly

At the turn of the century the newly launched euro was expected to go toe-to-toe with the dollar. However, the euro’s weight in reserves today has barely changed since 1999. The lack of capital market union and failure to develop a single issuer bond market to rival the depth and liquidity of the US Treasury market are two reasons. Nevertheless, as the principal alternative to the dollar, the euro will take a small extra slice of the pie and remain in clear second place.

In 2016 the forecast winner was the Chinese renminbi. Following a promising start after the 2008 financial crisis and the decision by Beijing to promote the internationalisation of the currency, success has been modest. This is despite the fast-tracked inclusion in 2016 into the IMF currency basket known as the special drawing rights.

The renminbi is currently home to around 2% of global foreign exchange reserves. The share has declined since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Eastern European central banks such as the Czech National Bank and the Central Bank of Lithuania have both liquidated their Chinese holdings. The latter explicitly cited Ukraine as a reason.

The renminbi story has also been hampered by capital market reforms that have fallen short of expectations, and most recently by Chinese bond yields that have fallen sharply. At current levels of yield new buyers of renminbi bonds might be discouraged.

However, geopolitical fracturing has two sides to it. For some nations China will be a friend rather than a foe, will command a larger share of the trade flows with these nations and the renminbi will have appeal for the managers of reserves. Despite headwinds, the renminbi will gain a modest foreign exchange reserves share over the next decade.

Finally, the Singapore dollar already has a small slice of the foreign exchange reserves pie, and can grow modestly. Large renminbi trade invoice flows through Singapore have led to rapid growth in the demand for Singapore dollar foreign exchange swaps. If continued, this will underpin the appetite for the Singapore dollar.

What chance of a new Brics currency backed by gold?

There has been speculation that a desire to avoid the dollar might encourage the launch of a gold-backed Brics currency, and that this might become a rival trade currency to the dollar and an eventual home for foreign exchange reserves.

This is unlikely. The Brics nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and, since 2024, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Iran and Indonesia) are a heterogenous group, with differing objectives and – in the case of India and China – significant rivalries. This is not an obvious starting point for a shared currency project.

The issues involved in establishing any kind of Brics currency (gold-linked or otherwise) would be enormous. Further talk of adding nations to the Brics group would increase complexity and reduce the probability of a new currency arrangement. It will not be taking a share of the foreign exchange reserves pie in the next decade.

The conclusion must be that dollar dominance will continue to erode due to further weaponisation of the currency. But even if the weight of the greenback falls to 50%, primary dominance will be maintained because there will not be a single challenger from the pack. Instead, the next 10 years will see 10 currencies each take a small slice of the next 10% of dollar erosion.

Source：omfif

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Owen Li

Economic

Dollar is trading slightly lower today as markets await Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President. Attention is focused on his inaugural speech, expected to confirm his policy priorities. However, the real market-moving event is likely to be the series of executive actions Trump has promised to enact immediately.

Over 200 directives are anticipated, including legally binding executive orders and proclamations, with particular interest in measures affecting tariffs and deregulations in sectors like energy and cryptocurrencies.

One key area of focus is Trump’s potential tariff policies, which would surely reshape US trade relationships with allies and adversaries and impact global market. Deregulation efforts, spanning traditional energy sectors to the fast-growing cryptocurrency industry, are also expected to influence investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, reflecting the renewed bullish sentiment in cryptocurrencies. Technically, next near term target is 61.8% projection of 49008 to 108368 from 89127 at 125812. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 89127 support holds, even in case of pull back. Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record_1

Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record_1

While Trump’s inauguration and executive actions are dominating headlines, global markets are also preparing for several other key events. BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate. UK employment data will provide insight into the labor market’s response to the Autumn Budget. Inflation data from Canada and New Zealand will help shape monetary policy projections of BoC and RBNZ. PMI data from major economies will round out the week’s events.

ECB’s Holzmann: January rate cut not as certain with elevated inflation risks

Austrian ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann expressed skepticism over a potential rate cut at ECB’s upcoming January meeting. In an interview with Politico, Holzmann stated, “A cut is not a foregone conclusion for me at all,” emphasizing his commitment to approaching the discussion with an “open mind.”

Holzmann highlighted that ECB decisions are fundamentally data-driven and noted that inflation remained “well above” 2% in December, with January figures expected to reflect similar levels. He cautioned that “cutting interest rates when inflation rises faster than anticipated, even temporarily, risks hurting credibility.”

As a known policy hawk, Holzmann also revealed increased doubts about inflation settling around ECB’s 2% target by the end of the year. He cited unexpected developments since the December decision, including faster-than-expected depletion of gas reserves due to colder weather, the effective closure of the Ukraine gas transit, and the risks of persistently high energy prices.

China maintains LPR as offshore Yuan recovers ahead of key support

China’s central bank maintained its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate was steady at 3.1%, while the over-five-year LPR, which influences mortgage rates, remained at 3.6%.

The offshore Yuan strengthened notably against the Dollar, continuing to draw support from a a key long-term level. This comes despite market speculation that China might allow Yuan to weaken further to counteract the economic effects of new tariffs introduced under Donald Trump’s presidency.

A weaker currency would bolster export competitiveness by making Chinese goods more affordable internationally. However, Beijing faces a dilemma: while a controlled depreciation could help exporters, an uncontrolled fall could lead to heightened volatility in domestic financial markets and reduced investor confidence.

Acknowledging these risks, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to exchange rate stability last week, stating, “We will resolutely prevent the risk of the exchange rate overshooting, ensuring that the Yuan exchange rate remains generally stable at a reasonable, balanced level.”

Technically, a short term top should be confirmed at 7.3694 in USD/CNH with today’s dip. But it’s early to call for bearish reversal as long as 55 D EMA (now at 7.2797) hits. Further rally remains in favor through 7.3745 (202 high) to resume the long term up trend.

Nevertheless, firm break of 55 D EMA should bring deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 6.9709 to 7.3694 at 7.2172, which is close to 55 W EMA (now at 7.2097) even just as a correction to rise from 6.9709. Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record_2

Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record_2

From BoJ to inflation data and PMIs, global markets have more to focus on than Trump

While the inauguration of Donald Trump dominates the headlines in US markets, global investors are turning their attention to a week packed with pivotal high-impact economic events that would provide crucial clues about the monetary policy paths of key economies.

BoJ’s upcoming meeting is a top priority for global markets. After repeated signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda and other top officials, markets should be well-prepared for a 25bps rate hike, raising the policy rate to 0.50%. However, beyond the rate decision, the focus will shift to BoJ’s updated economic projections and policy guidance.

While Ueda is expected to remain cautious about committing to a specific timeline for normalization, he may strike a more optimistic tone regarding wage growth, based on reports from branch managers. Additionally, BoJ could raise inflation forecasts in its quarterly outlook, both of which would add hawkish tones to the meeting.

In the UK, attention is squarely on employment data, which will shed light on the labor market’s response to the government’s Autumn Budget. The markets are already pricing in over 75 basis points of BoE rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, IMF is projecting an even deeper 100bps reduction. The strength of the labor market will play a pivotal role in determining the scale of monetary easing this year, making this release a key driver for Sterling sentiment.

Inflation data from Canada and New Zealand also hold significant importance. In Canada, BoC has indicated that the pace of rate reductions will slow, but uncertainty remains over the timing of pauses. A Reuters poll suggests an 80% chance of a 25bps cut on January 29, following December’s larger 50-bps move. CPI data will either reinforce or challenge this expectation.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Q4 inflation report is expected to show further easing in price pressures, consistent with RBNZ’s forecasts. If the trend persists, RBNZ could deliver another 50bs rate cut at its February meeting

Other data to watch this week include Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and PMI reports from several major economies. These releases will provide additional context on global economic momentum and inform central bank decisions in the months ahead.

Here are some highlights for the week:

Monday: Japan machine orders, tertiary industry index; Germany PPI; Swiss PPI; BoC business outlook survey.Tuesday: New Zealand BNZ services; UK employment; Germany ZEW economic sentiment; Canada CPI.Wednesday: New Zealand CPI; UK public sector net borrowing: Canada IPPI and RMPI.Thursday: Japan trade balance; Canada retail sales; US jobless claims.Friday: Australia PMIs; Japan CPI, PMIs, BoJ rate decision; Eurozone PMIs; UK PMIs; Canada new housing price index; US PMIs, US existing sales.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0247; (P) 1.0289; (R1) 1.0313;

EUR/USD recovers mildly today but stays in the middle of near term range above 1.0176. Intraday bias stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 1.0435 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083. However, firm break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record_4

Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record_4

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Source:action forex

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Global markets faced a rollercoaster of volatility as major asset classes swung sharply during Donald Trump’s first day in office. Investor sentiment was dominated by the US President's potential implementation of the tariff pledges made during his campaign.

On Monday, European stock markets closed broadly higher after Trump's team signalled that the initial executive orders might exclude tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico. US stock markets were closed for a public holiday, but the three main futures indices all posted gains. The US dollar sharply retreated, pushing the euro to a two-week high above 1.04. Bitcoin briefly surged to a new record high of over $109,000 before retreating, while gold prices climbed higher and oil declined.

However, nearly all trends reversed during Tuesday's Asian session. President Trump announced plans to impose previously pledged tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico starting on 1 February. The announcement sent shockwaves through the markets, with the greenback regaining strength and pressuring other currencies, including the euro. US equity futures declined, setting the stage for potential spillovers into European markets.

Prevailing Risk-Aversion Sentiment

Investors are increasingly turning to safe-haven assets to hedge against uncertainty, as sentiment appears highly sensitive to Trump’s policy shifts. “The fact we’ve seen such positive reactions to signals of a more deliberative approach to tariffs shows how concerned the markets are about the impact of trade wars. Further, the volatility seen today shows that sentiment can change in an instant,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Compital.com.

Early on Tuesday in the Asian session, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen surged. At 4:25 a.m. European Central Time (ECT), spot gold prices rose 0.72% to $2,725 per ounce, the highest level since election day on 5 November. The USD/JPY pair fell below 155 for the first time since 19 December. Meanwhile, the euro pared some of its earlier gains against the dollar, retreating to just below 1.04.

However, the greenback may maintain its strength as a haven asset. "For the dollar, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and potential trade frictions are likely to bolster its safe-haven appeal", Dilin Wu, a research strategist wrote in an email to Euronews. "Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, maintaining its upward trajectory", she added.

Bitcoin Retreats from a New High

Bitcoin reached a new record high of over $109,000 following Trump’s inauguration on Monday, surpassing its previous peak of $108,300. However, the surge was short-lived due to a lack of clarity on cryptocurrency policy from the new administration. By 4:50 a.m. ECT, Bitcoin had rebounded from a session low near $100,000 to approximately $103,000. "Until regulatory policies and supportive measures become clearer, Bitcoin traders may remain on the sidelines", said Wu.

Previously, President Trump had announced plans to establish a US Bitcoin Reserve and ease industrial regulations. Over the weekend, both Trump and his wife unveiled their own meme coins – Official Trump and Melania Meme – on the Solana blockchain. Solana and the meme coins rallied before pulling back on Saturday. Despite the volatility, crypto enthusiasts remain optimistic that Trump will introduce pro-crypto policies within his first 100 days in office.

Crude Oil Under Pressure

Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive trading day on Monday as Trump declared his intention to "declare a national energy emergency" to ramp up US production and reverse climate-focused policies implemented during the Biden administration. "We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help us to do it", Trump stated.

Oil prices saw a modest rebound in the Asian session, with WTI futures rising 0.65% to $76.89 per barrel and Brent futures climbing to $80.20 per barrel.

The oil market had surged to a six-month high last week, supported by additional sanctions on Russian exports imposed by the Biden administration and stronger-than-expected economic data from China.

However, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain as Trump has pledged to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. His approach could involve either tightening sanctions on Russia or relaxing restrictions to facilitate negotiations, each of which could have adverse impact on crude prices.

Source: Euronews

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Owen Li

Economic

On Monday, January 21, President-elect Donald Trump continued his pro-crypto agenda, naming Commissioner Mark Uyeda as acting SEC Chair. Acting Chair Uyeda takes over from former Chair Gensler and will lead the agency during Paul Atkins’ confirmation process. The announcement could be a pivotal moment for Ripple and XRP.

Trump could choose from Republican Commissioners Uyeda or Hester Peirce, known for their crypto-friendly stances. Trump’s selection of Atkins as Chair solidifies a pro-crypto agenda for the Republican-led SEC.

Acting Chair Uyeda was under consideration for the agency’s top position before Trump nominated former Commissioner Paul Atkins as Chair. There could be a significant shift in the SEC’s enforcement policies from day one.

In November, Acting chair Uyeda shared his views on the SEC’s regulation through enforcement policy, saying,“The Commission’s war on crypto must end, including crypto enforcement actions solely based on a failure to register with no allegation of fraud or harm. President Trump and the American electorate have sent a clear message. Starting in 2025, the SEC’s role is to carry out that mandate.”

Acting Chair Uyeda could kick start the SEC’s change in crypto strategy as early as Thursday, January 23, at the SEC’s next Closed Meeting. The Ripple case will likely be among the enforcement actions that are up for review.

Acting Chair Uyeda and SEC Commissioner Peirce must decide whether to withdraw or pause the Ripple case. Last week, there were reports that the acting SEC Chair may review and request stays or end non-fraud-related crypto cases.

SEC vs. Ripple Case: No Fraud or Recklessness

The Ripple case meets the criteria of a non-fraud case. In August 2024, Judge Torres delivered the Final Judgment and a blow to the SEC. Notably, Judge Torres denied the SEC’s request for disgorgement and prejudgment interest in excess of $1 billion.

Judge Torres imposed a $125 million penalty for illegally selling XRP to institutional investors, well below the SEC’s claim for $876 million Importantly, Judge Torres based the penalty on a tier-one civil violation of the US Securities Act, with no allegations of fraud or recklessness.

The SEC vs. Ripple case is likely the highest profile case and in President Trump’s sights. Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler filed an appeal-related opening brief on January 15, challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. Pausing the case may align with Trump’s pro-crypto stance, but pursuing the appeal risks contradicting this narrative.

XRP Price Trends Amid Legal Uncertainty

On Monday, January 20, XRP rallied 4.95%, partially reversing Sunday’s 9.55% tumble to close at $3.1013. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which advanced by 1.06%, taking the total market cap to $3.46 trillion.

Near-term trends remain hinged on the SEC’s appeal strategy. If the agency pauses or withdraws its appeal in the Ripple case, XRP could break above its all-time high of $3.5505. Conversely, XRP could drop below $2.5 if the SEC pursues its appeal, challenging the Programmatic Sales ruling. Will Acting Sec Chair Uyeda End Ripple Case? BTC Falls Back to $102K_1

Will Acting Sec Chair Uyeda End Ripple Case? BTC Falls Back to $102K_1

Explore our expert analysis here on the SEC’s next move and its implications for XRP’s future.

Bitcoin Sees Volatility as Trump’s Crypto Stance Unfolds

Meanwhile, bitcoin enjoyed a pre-Trump inauguration rally on speculation of pro-crypto executive orders.

However, BTC gave up early gains as President Trump’s America First Priorities skipped crypto altogether. Markets had hoped for an executive order classifying BTC as a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

In January, Anthony Scaramucci said the incoming Trump administration could acquire 500,000 BTC, stating the Senate Banking Committee Chair, Tim Scott, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocate an SBR.

Trump’s crypto silence weighed market expectations of a US SBR. According to Polymarket, bets on President Trump creating a BTC reserve within the first 100 days tumbled 20% on Monday to 39%. On November 7, 60% of betters had expected President Trump to create a BTC reserve in his first 100 days.

There was also speculation President Trump would repeal Joe Biden’s veto President Biden’s veto of the bipartisan vote to withdraw the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121.

SAB 121 is an SEC requirement for companies, including banks, to hold crypto assets on their balance sheets even if they hold the cryptos under customer custody. This regulation increases the cost for banks to hold crypto for clients. Consequently, it limits the availability of crypto services. A repeal could also boost BTC-related banking services and demand.

Markets Remain Hopeful for an SBR

Despite Trump’s lack of crypto attention, markets remain optimistic about a US SBR. Senator Cynthia Lummis continues advocating for an SBR. Notably, the Senator introduced the Bitcoin Act in December. The bill proposes the US government accumulate one million BTC (5% of the total supply) over five years, with a minimum mandatory holding period of 20 years.

A bipartisan vote in favor of an SBR would tilt BTC’s supply-demand balance heavily in its favor. Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton recently speculated that BTC could climb to $1 million if the US government passes the Bitcoin Act, attributing his projection to a “Nation State FOMO.”

Bitcoin Price Outlook

On Monday, January 20, BTC gained 0.96%, partially reversing Sunday’s 2.07% loss to close at $102,408. Significantly, BTC climbed to a record high of $109,350 before retreating.

BTC’s price trends hinge on Trump’s executive orders and plans for an SBR.

Repealing the SAB 121 veto, US BTC-spot ETF inflows and positive US SBR developments could push BTC beyond Monday’s record high of $109,350. Conversely, falling bets on an SBR and BTC-spot ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $95k.

Following Trump’s inauguration, crypto-related executive orders could be crucial for BTC and the broader market. Will Acting Sec Chair Uyeda End Ripple Case? BTC Falls Back to $102K_2

Will Acting Sec Chair Uyeda End Ripple Case? BTC Falls Back to $102K_2

Market Outlook

XRP and BTC face critical junctures as legal and regulatory developments unfold. XRP’s trajectory hinges on Uyeda’s SEC strategy, while Bitcoin’s outlook depends on Trump’s crypto policies. Broader regulatory shifts could further influence market sentiment in the coming weeks.

Stay updated with our expert analysis of these developments and their implications for crypto markets. Read more here.

Source:Fxempire

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Cohen

Economic

Among the 10 member countries, four (Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and the Philippines) have fully adopted GMT+8 — aligned with China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau and western Australia, according to the chairman of the local stock exchange.

Another four countries, namely Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are currently on GMT+7, while Myanmar uses GMT+6.30. Indonesia, on the other hand, utilises multiple time zones, with central Indonesia using GMT+8, western Indonesia (including Jakarta) GMT+8 and east Indonesia GMT+9.

“My only wish is to see most of Asean adopting a common time zone of GMT+8 sometime in the near future,” Abdul Wahid said in his keynote speech at 2025 Malaysia Economic and Strategic Outlook Forum (Mesof) here on Tuesday.

“I believe such a move will further integrate Asean as a compelling economic bloc,” he added.

Malaysia Institute of Economic Research (MIER) executive director Dr Anthony Dass said that a unified time zone among Asean countries would serve as foundation for a singular voice within the regional coalition.

“When you have a common time — that is the regional coalition. So you start with this simple thing [same time zone] — and when we [Asean countries] get in, start negotiating, we become very strong, a single voice,” Dass said at the forum.

This year, Malaysia assumes the Asean chairmanship with the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability”, marking the fifth time it has done so, having previously been chair in 1977, 1997, 2005, and 2015.

Source：theedgemalaysia

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Statistics Canada is set to release its latest inflation report for December, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this Tuesday. Early forecasts suggest headline inflation may have risen by 1.8% compared to the same month of the previous year.

In addition to the headline figures, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish its core CPI data, which excludes more unpredictable items like food and energy. For context, November’s core CPI showed a 0.1% contraction compared to the previous month but showed a 1.6% increase from a year earlier. Meanwhile, headline inflation for November rose just 1.9% annually and actually came in flat on a monthly basis.

These inflation numbers are under a microscope, particularly because of their potential impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The BoC’s approach to interest rates plays a critical role here. The central bank has already reduced its policy rate by 175 basis points since it began easing in June 2024, bringing it down to 3.25% on December 11.

On the currency front, the CAD has faced significant challenges, losing value steadily. This has pushed the USD/CAD exchange rate to its highest levels since May 2020, breaching the 1.4400 mark. Markets will be paying close attention to Tuesday’s data to gauge what might come next for the Canadian economy and its currency.

What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?

The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points on December 11 to 3.25% was a close call, according to the meeting Minutes published on December 23. Some council members favoured a smaller 25 basis point reduction, leading to significant debate. Governor Tiff Macklem signalled that future cuts would likely be more gradual, marking a shift from earlier messaging about the need for steady easing. Proponents of the larger cut cited concerns about weaker growth and downside inflation risks, though not all recent data supported such an aggressive move. The decision highlights the central bank’s careful navigation of economic uncertainties.

Previewing the data release, analysts at TD Securities note: “We look for CPI to edge higher to 2.0% YoY as prices fall by 0.2% MoM. Seasonal headwinds to core goods will weigh heavily on a MoM basis, while food prices and a softer Loonie provide a source of strength. Core inflation should slow by 0.2pp to 2.45% YoY on average as CPI-trim/median overshoot BoC projections for Q4, but we expect the BoC to look through this in January.”

When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canada's inflation report for December is set to be released on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, but the Canadian Dollar's reaction will likely depend on whether the data delivers any major surprises. If the figures align with expectations, they are unlikely to influence the Bank of Canada’s current rate outlook.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD has been navigating a consolidative range since mid-December, reaching multi-year highs just beyond the 1.4500 hurdle. This rise has been primarily driven by a robust rebound in the US Dollar (USD), largely attributed to the so-called “Trump trade,” which continues to exert significant pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar.

Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, suggests that given the current scenario of persistent gains in the Greenback and heightened volatility in crude oil prices, further weakness in the Canadian Dollar should remain in the pipeline for the time being.

“Bullish attempts should lead USD/CAD to another potential visit to the 2024 peak of 1.4485 (January 20), ahead of the highest level reached in 2020 at 1.4667 (March 19),” Piovano adds.

On the downside, there is an initial support zone at the 2025 low of 1.4278 (January 6), prior to the provisional 55-day SMA at 1.4177 and the psychological 1.4000 threshold. Down from here comes the November low of 1.3823 (November 6), closely followed by the more significant 200-day SMA at 1.3816. Should USD/CAD break below this level, it could trigger additional selling pressure, initially targeting the September low of 1.3418 (September 25), Piovano notes.

Source: FXSTREET

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