US Natgas Edge Down from 3-Week High

WTI crude oil stayed around $71 per barrel on Monday as investors watched for progress on a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which could ease sanctions and boost oil supply.

US President Donald Trump said he might meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss ending the war, with initial talks between the US and Russia set to take place in Saudi Arabia this week.

If negotiations succeed, more Russian oil could enter global markets, increasing supply.

Additionally, Iraq’s Kurdistan region signaled that its oil exports may resume next month.

However, oil prices are being held back by fears of a global trade war, as Trump has ordered officials to review potential retaliatory tariffs on countries that impose duties on US goods.

European natural gas futures remained below €51 per megawatt-hour, after falling 15% from a two-year high, as concerns over rapid withdrawals from storage eased.

This relief came following EU-level talks about potentially relaxing gas storage requirements.

Germany is advocating for more flexible rules due to the high costs of filling storage, especially after a colder, less windy winter depleted reserves more quickly.

EU gas storage is now under 45% full, making it difficult to meet the requirement of 90% by November 1.

Warmer temperatures in northwest Europe and a surge in LNG imports are helping slow withdrawals.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump’s push for a quick end to the Ukraine war raises hopes that some Russian gas flows may return, improving supply prospects.

Palm oil ended higher, tracking palm olein prices on the Dalian exchange and amid expectations of seasonally weak output in the weeks ahead, according toDavid Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support for prices at MYR4500 and resistance at MYR4600. Market participants awaited for the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and clarity on the U.S. trade policy for market direction, according to Kenanga Futures in a commentary. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery was MYR40 higher at MYR4539 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could lead to higher oil output and lower Brent prices, offering some relief to consumers, according to Bank of America analysts. "We believe Brent crude oil prices could drop between $5 and $10 a barrel if Russian barrels suddenly do not need to make a long journey to India or China, and more supply is suddenly made available," they say in a note to clients. Global refining margins could also decline, as Russian products like diesel would no longer have to travel long distances. Still, price risks remain as the U.S. might scale up sanctions on Russia if negotiations stall. Brent crude currently trades just under $75 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Brent crude oil stayed just below $75 per barrel on Monday as investors watched for progress on a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which could ease sanctions and boost oil supply.

US President Donald Trump said he might meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss ending the war, with initial talks between the US and Russia set to take place in Saudi Arabia this week.

If negotiations succeed, more Russian oil could enter global markets, increasing supply.

Additionally, Iraq’s Kurdistan region signaled that its oil exports may resume next month.

However, oil prices are being held back by fears of a global trade war, as Trump has ordered officials to review potential retaliatory tariffs on countries that impose duties on US goods.

Newcastle coal futures fell toward $102 per tonne in February, the lowest in nearly four years as evidence of oversupply outweighed robust demand from top consumers.

China announced that its output is set to expand 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons in 2025 following a record-setting 2024, aiming to expand mining capacity to avoid availability risks from carbon emission limits and mine shutdowns for safety protocol breaches.

The development occurred as utilities already deal with record-high coal inventories, which rose by 12% in the two months ending October.

Also, Indonesian output rose to a record high 836 million tonnes in 2024, 18% above its target, while the country’s increasing investment in alternative power sources limited the outlook for coal demand.

The developments were enough to offset the bullish consumption from China.

Coal plant construction rose to its highest level in a decade last year, while consumption is set to rise amid fresh retaliatory tariffs on US LNG.