USD/CHF Attracts Some Buyers Above 0.8950 as Traders Await US Q4 GDP Release

Dollar traded broadly higher in Asian session, trying to stage a comeback after a failed rally attempt overnight. Renewed focus on tariffs appears to be driving some of the greenback’s momentum. Meanwhile, broader market sentiment is just steady following Nvidia’s strong earnings report, with lingering concerns over competition from China’s DeepSeek AI continue to weigh.

Tariffs are back in headlines after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed that the “big transaction” involving reciprocal tariffs is set for April 2. The date was pushed from April 1, as US President Donald Trump—citing superstition—chose to avoid making major policy moves on that day.

Lutnick also noted that Canada and Mexico could avoid the planned 25% tariffs if they can demonstrate sufficient progress on border security and fentanyl control. However, he added that Trump would ultimately decide whether to pause again or proceed with the tariffs.

Despite Nvidia reporting an impressive 78% year-over-year sales increase and a 93% jump in data center revenue, its struggle to rebound with momentum. The company has yet to fully recover from its 17% drop on January 27—its worst single-day decline since 2020—amid growing concerns about China’s emerging AI competitor, DeepSeek.

Elsewhere, Aussie is struggling despite comments from a top RBA official suggesting that rate cuts are not on auto-pilot and that further easing would require more disinflation evidence. This cautious stance should have provided some support for the Aussie, but broader risk-off sentiment is keeping the currency under pressure.

For now, Aussie is sitting at the bottom of today’s performance chart. Kiwi is also underperforming, while Swiss Franc is the third worst performer of the day so far. At the top of the performance table, Dollar leads, followed by Yen and Loonie. Euro and British Pound are positioning in the middle.

Technically, AUD/JPY’s fall from 102.39 resumed this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 102.39 to 95.50 from 98.75 at 91.86. As this decline is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 90.10, strong support should be seen around there to bring reversal. But risk will continue to stays on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 96.74) holds, in case of recovery.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.14%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.76%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.49%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.036 at 1.402. Overnight, DOW fell -0.43%. S&P 500 rose 0.01%. NASDAQ rose 0.26%. 10-year yield fell -0.049 to 4.249.

RBA’s Hauser: Global uncertainty justifies rate cut, but more easing depends on disnflation evidence

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told the parliament today that mounting global uncertainty had a chilling effect on economic activity, which played a role in the board’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 bps this month.

He noted that businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, delaying investment projects and expansion plans as they wait for clearer economic signals, “just to see how things pan out.”

This hesitation, he suggested, made a slight easing of monetary policy a “sensible” response to support economic stability.

However, Hauser emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on incoming inflation data. Policymakers remain optimistic about further disinflation but need to see clear evidence before committing to additional policy easing.

NZ ANZ business confidence rises to 58.4, on the path to recovery

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence rose from 54.4 to 58.4 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook, slipped slightly from 45.8 to 45.1, highlighting that while sentiment is improving, actual activity remains uncertain.

Pricing and cost indicators painted a mixed picture. Inflation expectations for the next year eased from 2.67% to 2.53% and cost expectations fell from 73.6 to 71.3. But wage expectations remained elevated at 79.2 despite fall from 83.1, and pricing intentions ticked up from 45.7 to 46.2.

ANZ noted that the economy is on the “path to recovery,” supported by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices. However, the bank cautioned that the next phase of growth remains “a point of debate.”

The pace of expansion will depend on how households perceive current interest rates, the extent to which global uncertainty influences business investment, and whether firms push forward despite challenges. Additionally, potential labor shortages could emerge as a key constraint on further growth.

BoE’s Dhingra: Orderly trade fragmentation unlikely to require monetary policy response

BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra suggested that the inflationary impact of rising global tariffs could be tempered by weaker economic growth.

She added that if the global economy undergoes a “fragmentation in an orderly way,” monetary policy might not need to react immediately as prices readjust to new geopolitical shifts.

However, she cautioned that in an “extreme scenario” where multiple major economies erect significant trade barriers similar to those proposed by the US, “severe strain on a few sources of supply” could lead to sharp price spikes, reminiscent of those seen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Despite the risks, Dhingra downplayed the likelihood of a severe disruption, noting that “the world economy seems to be moving closer to an orderly fragmentation.”

Looking ahead

Swiss GDP, Eurozone M3 monthly supply will be released in European session. ECB will publish meeting accounts.

Later in the day, US will release GDP revision, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8920; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.8969; More…

USD/CHF recovered notably but stays below 0.9053 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. The corrective pattern from 0.9200 could still extend lower. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 to complete it, and bring larger rise resumption. On the upside, above 0.9053 will bring retest of 0.9200 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Economic Indicators Update

Source: ACTIONFOREX

AUD/JPY turns lower for the third straight day and is pressured by a combination of factors.

BoJ rate hike bets and trade war fears continue to drive safe-haven flows towards the JPY.

Wednesday’s softer Australian CPI print undermines the AUD and contributes to the slide.

The AUD/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following an Asian session uptick to the 94.20 area and turns lower for the third straight day on Thursday. This also marks the sixth day of a negative move in the previous seven and drags spot prices to the 93.70 area, or the lowest level since September 2024 in the last hour.

Investors seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates further amid broadening inflation in Japan. This overshadows BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments last week about potentially increasing regular bond buying and triggers a fresh leg up in JGB yields. Apart from this, concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff plans further underpin the safe-haven JPY and exert downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross.

In fact, Trump ordered an investigation on copper imports to assess whether tariffs should be imposed due to national security concerns. This comes on top of 10% tariffs imposed on goods from China and threats of new reciprocal tariffs for each country. Apart from this, Wednesday's softer domestic consumer inflation figures contribute to the Australian Dollar's (AUD) relative underperformance and further weigh on the AUD/JPY cross. 

Meanwhile, the latest leg down validates this week's breakdown through the previous year-to-date low, around the 94.25 region. A subsequent fall and acceptance below the 94.00 mark suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/JPY cross remains to the downside. Traders now look forward to a slew of key economic reports from Japan on Friday, including Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Tokyo inflation, for a fresh impetus.

Economic Indicator

Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Source: FXSTREET

EUR/GBP weakens as President Trump warns of 25% tariffs on the European Union

The EU vowed to respond against Trump’s proposed tariffs.

BoE’s Swati Dhingra emphasized the limits of central bank policy in tackling trade-related supply shocks.

EUR/GBP extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.8270 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains under pressure due to a weakened Euro (EUR) following threats from US President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on the European Union (EU).

Late Wednesday, President Trump reaffirmed his intention to enforce 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and announced plans to add the EU to the list of nations facing trade penalties for exports to the United States (US).

In response, the EU pledged to react “firmly and immediately” to these “unjustified” trade barriers, signaling its readiness to retaliate swiftly against the proposed levies. These escalating trade tensions could exacerbate the Eurozone’s economic slowdown and further weigh on the EUR’s performance against its peers.

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee Member Swati Dhingra highlighted on Wednesday the limitations of central bank policy in addressing trade-based supply shocks. Dhingra noted that if global economic fragmentation proceeds in an orderly fashion, monetary policy interventions may not be necessary. However, in a scenario where external supply shocks become more frequent, having an independent monetary authority with a clear inflation target becomes crucial.

Traders have already priced in two interest rate cuts by the BoE for the year. Nevertheless, Dhingra’s earlier comments suggested she supports more aggressive easing, favoring over four rate cuts. She stated that while the media often interprets the term “gradual” as 25 basis points (bps) per quarter, maintaining this pace throughout the rest of 2025 would still leave monetary policy in an excessively restrictive position by year-end.

Source: FXSTREET

GBP/USD slips as the US Dollar gains strength amid heightened risk aversion and rising US Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve’s Raphael Bostic suggested keeping interest rates steady to maintain pressure on inflation.

BoE’s Swati Dhingra noted that higher US tariffs could boost the US Dollar, potentially driving up prices in the UK.

GBP/USD depreciates after two consecutive sessions of gains, trading around 1.2660 during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid increased risk aversion and rising US Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated late Wednesday that the Fed should maintain current interest rates to continue applying downward pressure on inflation, according to Bloomberg. Bostic noted the need for more data to determine if January’s inflation was a temporary bump or the start of a trend. He emphasized that Fed policy remains restrictive and should stay that way.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, advanced near 106.50, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields standing at 4.08% and 4.27%, respectively, at the time of writing.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced late Wednesday that April 3 would serve as the baseline for reciprocal tariff data. He also stated that Chinese vehicles would not be allowed in the US, citing China as a major concern. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed his commitment to working with Congress to make President Trump’s tax cuts permanent.

Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee Member Swati Dhingra commented on Wednesday that higher US tariffs could strengthen the US Dollar in the short term, leading to some price-increasing effects in the United Kingdom (UK). However, she noted that the overall inflationary impact in the UK would likely be offset by reduced global price pressures resulting from these tariffs.

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Source: FXSTREET

The US dollar firmed in early Asian hours on Thursday as Treasury yields ticked higher while investors assessed the outlook for tariffs and the economy under President Donald Trump.

Asian stocks were mixed with tech shares around the region getting little steer from heavyweight US chipmaker and artificial intelligence (AI) darling Nvidia's earnings overnight.

Cryptocurrency bitcoin languished below US$85,000 (RM377,499), while safe-haven gold was steady some US$40 below its record high as trade war worries kept market sentiment fragile.

Trump clouded the outlook for looming levies on top trading partners Canada and Mexico on Wednesday by signalling they would take affect on April 2, which would be another month-long extension.

However a White House official later said the previous March 2 deadline for the levies remained in effect "as of this moment", stirring further uncertainty about US trade policy.

US two-year Treasury yields rose to 4.09%, finding their footing following a slump to the lowest since Nov 1 at 4.065% in the prior session. The 10-year yield rose to 4.2772% from a low of 4.245% on Wednesday, a 2½-month trough.

The dollar and US yields have been under pressure in recent weeks as a run of soft economic indicators have combined with growth worries arising from Trump's tariffs.

Traders have raised bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in recent days, now seeing two quarter-point reductions this year, with the first likely in July and the next as early as October.

Markets will look at GDP and durable orders data due on Thursday for any stronger signs of slowdown, while the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation rate, is due on Friday.

"Markets are starting to feel less confidence about US growth," said Shoki Omori, chief global desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"I think US data surprises will continue to be towards the downside," although as economists start to adjust their forecasts towards weaker outcomes, and with inflation still "sticky", 10-year Treasury yields are unlikely to fall below 4%, Omori said.

In equities, Japan's Nikkei added just 0.1%, Australia's benchmark index climbed 0.5% and South Korea's Kospi slid 0.7%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.9%, with tech shares outperforming, while mainland blue chips rose 0.2%. Taiwan shares advanced 0.2%.

US Nasdaq futures were steady following a 0.3% rise in the regular session overnight, while S&P 500 futures were also little changed after the cash index ended the day flat.

Nvidia shares slipped 1.5% in extended trading following a 3.7% rally in regular trading on Wednesday. After the closing bell, the chipmaker published a strong growth forecast for the first quarter, although investors are accustomed to big beats from the company.

"Nvidia's earnings came with much less volatility than expected," said IG analyst Jun Rong Yeap.

"The absence of major surprises may have kept sentiment relatively calm," Yeap said.

"Sellers may find fault with its slight gross margin decline, but ... note that this stems from newer data centre products — ultimately beneficial for long-term growth."

Bitcoin was steady at US$84,742 following a more than 11% tumble so far this week.

Gold was little changed at US$2,912 per ounce.

Crude oil ticked up from two-month lows it hit following a surprise build in US fuel stockpiles.

Brent crude added 0.26% to US$72.72 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures gained 0.23% to US$68.78.

Source: Theedgemarkets

The Indian Rupee trades on a flat note in Thursday’s Asian session. 

Rising US Dollar demand and continued capital outflows undermine the INR, but RBI intervention might cap its downside. 

The estimate of the US Q4 GDP report will take center stage later on Thursday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) holds steady on Thursday. The local currency remains on the defensive due to month-end US Dollar (USD) demand by importers. Additionally, capital outflows amid uncertainty over US trade tariffs contribute to the INR’s downside. Nonetheless, a likely foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might help limit the Indian Rupee’s depreciation. 

Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on the estimate of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4), along with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which are due later on Thursday. Fedspeak will be in focus as it might offer some hints about the interest rate path in the United States. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman, Beth Hammack and Patrick Harker are scheduled to speak. 

Indian Rupee steadies amid USD demand and foreign outflows

“Rupee traded very weak as FII sell-off continued and crude oil prices remained elevated amid US tariffs on Iran, which pushed oil demand higher. The dollar index at 106.65 also added to the pressure on the rupee,” said Jateen Trivedi, Research Analyst at LKP Securities. 

Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump reiterated his insistence on 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as adding the European Union (EU) to the list of countries from which he will penalize US consumers for importing. 

New Home Sales in the US fell by 10.5% MoM to 657,000 units in January from 734,000 units (revised from 698,000) in the previous reading, according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau on Wednesday. This figure came in weaker than the 680,000 units expected. 

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should hold interest rates where they are, at a level that continues to put downward pressure on inflation, per Bloomberg.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that he will follow a wait-and-see approach regarding central bank interest rate policy until it is clear inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target.

USD/INR’s outlook remains bullish despite consolidation in the shorter term

The Indian Rupee trades flat on the day. The USD/INR maintains the constructive view on the daily chart, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 59.50, suggesting that further upside looks favorable. 

In the bullish case, the first upside target to watch is 87.25, the high of February 25. Extended gains above this level could push the price to an all-time high near 88.00. The next hurdle is seen at 88.50. 

On the flip side, the low of February 21 at 86.48 acts as an initial support level for the pair. Further south, the next contention level is located at 86.14, the low of January 27, followed by 85.65, the low of January 7.

Source: FXSTREET