Week Ahead for FX, Bonds to January 3: Quiet Time For Data Over Holiday Season

The NZX 50 was down 46 points or 0.4% to 12,859 around noon on Monday, halting gains in the previous session amid declines in healthcare, utilities, financials, and consumer discretionary.

Traders continued to digest last week's GDP data after the economy in New Zealand unexpectedly steeper contraction than the market expected, with GDP shrank 1% QoQ, falling into recession.

Yearly, the GDP shrank by 1.5%, pointing to the deepest contraction in over four years.

Meanwhile, business sentiment fell to a three-month low due to a weak economy.

However, US stock performance capped the falls, following Wall Street closed in the green on Friday after the PCE inflation data softer than expected, easing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025.

Among the early losers were Meridian Energy (-2.1%), Fonterra (-1.4%), Summerset Group (-1.3%), Manawa Energy (-1.1%), Infratill (-1.0%), and Fisher & Paykel (-0.7%).

The NZX 50 was down 46 points or 0.4% to 12,859 around noon on Monday, halting gains in the previous session amid declines in healthcare, utilities, financials, and consumer discretionary.

Traders continued to digest last week's GDP data after the economy in New Zealand unexpectedly steeper contraction than the market expected, with GDP shrank 1% QoQ, falling into recession.

Yearly, the GDP shrank by 1.5%, pointing to the deepest contraction in over four years.

Meanwhile, business sentiment fell to a three-month low due to a weak economy.

However, US stock performance capped the falls, following Wall Street closed in the green on Friday after the PCE inflation data softer than expected, easing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025.

Among the early losers were Meridian Energy (-2.1%), Fonterra (-1.4%), Summerset Group (-1.3%), Manawa Energy (-1.1%), Infratill (-1.0%), and Fisher & Paykel (-0.7%).

Saudi shares started the week at 0.36% in the red as investors await the release of the country's export and import numbers for October on Thursday.

According to the Tadawul All Share Index, the bourse ended Sunday trading at 11,849.37 points. Out of 247 stocks, 84 shares closed higher, while 137 closed lower. Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipes (SASE:2360) was the top gainer by 9.89%, and Riyadh Cables Group (SASE:4142) was the stock that lost the most at 6.30% in the red.

In international news, the US PCE price index for November climbed 2.4%, compared with the 2.3% increase in October. Meanwhile, core PCE price index figures for November increased 0.1% from the 0.3% climb in October.

"Meanwhile, the PCE is expected to rise 0.2% in November and 2.5% YoY, a potential uptick from the 2.3% annual gain in October. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE is also expected to rise 0.2% in November. While this may be a slower pace of ascent relative to a 0.3% gain in October, year-over-year, the core PCE is expected to rise 2.9%, a potential gain from the 2.8% annual pace in October and broadly perpetuating the notion that further disinflationary progress has stalled," Stifel said in a note on Friday.

Back at home, Alhasoob Co.(SASE:9522) shares closed 3.07% lower as its Alhasoob Trading unit canceled its nonbinding memorandum of understanding with Alkhorayef Group for the purchase of its subsidiary, Alkhorayef Printing Solutions. The office electronics retailer subsidiary's agreement fell through due to the companies not being able to negotiate an agreement.

In other news, Al-Baha Investment and Development (SASE:4130) shares closed flat as it moved its Saudi Arabian headquarters to the district of Al-Izdihar in Riyadh from Al Baha City following shareholder approval.

The WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.86 point or 0.85% this week to 102.08

• Largest one-week point and percentage gain since the week ending Nov 15, 2024
• Up for three consecutive weeks
• Up 2.13 points or 2.13% over the last three weeks
• Largest three-week point and percentage gain since the week ending Nov. 22, 2024
• Up 11 of the past 12 weeks
• Today it is down 0.48 point or 0.47%
• Largest one-day point and percentage decline since Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024
• Snaps a three-trading-day winning streak
• Off 2.92% from its record close of 105.14 hit Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022
• Today's closing value is the third highest this year
• Off 0.47% from its 52-week high of 102.56 hit Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024
• Up 7.10% from its 52-week low of 95.31 hit Friday, Sept. 27, 2024
• Rose 6.07% from 52 weeks ago
• Month-to-date it is up 2.13%
• Year-to-date it is up 6.24 points or 6.52%

Data based on 5 p.m. ET values

Source: Tullett Prebon and Dow Jones Market Data