What Would Happen if Ukraine Joined NATO?

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Ukraine stepped up its efforts to join NATO after Russia invaded last year, arguing that the security assurances given by Moscow, Washington and London when it relinquished its nuclear arsenal to Russia in 1994 were clearly worthless.

While eastern European countries say some sort of a road map should be offered to Kyiv at a NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday, the United States and Germany are wary of any move that might take the alliance closer to war with Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited NATO's expansion towards Russia's borders over the past two decades as a key reason for his decision to send tens of thousands of troops into neighbouring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Any expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must be agreed by all 31 members, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has already ruled out a formal invitation for Kyiv at the summit.

Following are the steps that Ukraine has taken on its way to NATO membership, a possible compromise over the next steps - and Russia's view of the developments.

An Unmapped Path

In 2008, NATO agreed at a Bucharest summit that Ukraine - which was part of the Moscow-ruled Soviet Union until its 1991 demise - could eventually join the alliance.

But NATO leaders did not give Kyiv a so-called Membership Action Plan (MAP) laying out a road map for bringing it closer to the bloc. Moscow then illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backed separatist proxies in eastern Ukraine.

In a rare visit to Kyiv this April, Stoltenberg said Ukraine's "rightful place" was in NATO but later made clear it would not be able to join while the war with Russia, whose forces now occupy more of Ukraine's east and south, rages on.

At the start of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his nation understood this position, but at the end of the month he repeated calls for Ukraine to receive a "political invitation" to NATO at the summit.

Under the MAP process followed by other former communist countries in eastern Europe, candidates have to prove they meet political, economic and military criteria and are able to contribute militarily to NATO operations.

Since 1999, most countries aiming to join NATO have participated in a MAP although this procedure is not mandatory: Finland and Sweden, formerly neutral states which worked closely with NATO, were invited to join the alliance directly.

It is unclear what Ukraine's path to membership will look like as more and more countries, Britain and Germany amongst them, suggest skipping the MAP process.

With such a move, NATO could address demands by Kyiv and its allies in eastern Europe to go beyond the language of the 2008 Bucharest summit agreement without offering Ukraine an actual invitation or timetable.

Ukraine's military has taken major steps towards NATO standards since Russia's all-out invasion. The process is accelerating as its Soviet-built arms and ammunition gradually run out and the West trains Ukrainian troops according to NATO standards and sends more and more advanced weaponry.

Why is Ukrainian membership so sensitive?

A mutual assistance clause lies at the heart of the alliance, which was formed in 1949 with the primary aim of countering the risk of a Soviet attack on allied territory.

It is cited as one of the main reasons why Ukraine cannot join NATO while in conflict with Russia, as this might immediately draw the alliance into an active war.

The clause, Article 5 of NATO's Washington Treaty, states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies.

Stoltenberg has made clear that, while NATO must discuss options for giving Ukraine security assurances for the time after the war, security guarantees under Article 5 will only be provided to full members of the alliance.

The Kremlin portrays the expansion as evidence of Western hostility to Russia - something Western powers deny, saying the alliance is wholly defensive in nature.

Moscow has said it would cause problems for many years to come if Ukraine joined NATO and has warned of an unspecified response to ensure its security.

Source: Reuters

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Damon

Stocks

As U.S. markets return from Independence Day, the Federal Reserve's slightly awkward deliberations are laid bare again just as China's markets shrink from more unnerving economic signs.

Minutes from the Fed's last policy making meeting - where it paused its brutal rate hike campaign despite signalling two more rises to come - top Wednesday's macro diary after a relatively quiet first two trading days of July for world markets.

That early week calm was disturbed somewhat in China earlier today as Shanghai and Hong Kong shares and the yuan skidded lower again on a mix of dour service sector business surveys, geopolitical tensions and banking fears.

With U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen due in Beijing on Thursday, trade relations are tense - with China on Tuesday restricting exports of two key chipmaking metals and Washington reportedly banning Chinese firms from accessing cloud computing.

Despite a broad rally in developed market equities in the first half of the year, China's CSI300 index is down almost 6% in dollar terms for 2023 to date and lost 0.8% on Wednesday alone.

Hong Kong stocks dropped 1.6% and the Hang Seng's Mainland Bank index lost more than 3% in its worst day for eight months after Goldman Sachs downgraded ratings on some Chinese banks and raised questions about the whole sector.

Stuck between the dilemmas of the inflation hawks in the West and China's spluttering economy and likely renewed policy stimulus, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday paused its interest rate hiking again for the second time this year - saying it wanted more time to assess the situation.

The Fed minutes out later will sketch out how close that is to the thinking in Washington. Going into the release, futures markets are 80% priced for another quarter-point policy rate rise to 5.5-5.75% this month and have 33 basis points of hikes pencilled in by November.

After more encouraging data on disinflation during May, a Fed research paper released on Friday showed financial conditions were at their tightest since the banking crash more than a decade ago.

Two-year Treasury yields hovered about 4.90% on Wednesday, well back from Monday's 4.96% high. The dollar was steady to firmer, with China's offshore yuan reversing all of Tuesday's gains.

U.S. stock futures were down about 0.2% ahead of the bell, with the VIX index of implied volatility popping back above 14 as the new quarter gets underway in earnest.

Along with China, and likely affected by it, updated euro zone composite business survey readings for last month showed activity contracting again for the first time this year and producer prices falling at an annual rate of 1.5% in May.

The global industrial picture saw crude oil prices slip back again on Wednesday despite fresh attempts by Saudi Arabia and Russia this week to further limit supplies.

Events to watch for later on Wednesday:

* U.S. May factory orders

* Federal Reserve releases minutes of its latest policy meeting

* New York Fed President John Williams speaks Minutes Meted, China Crunch_1

Source: Yahoo

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

A tailwind behind Japanese stocks is strengthening as large foreign funds who have been avoiding the market for decades start to reach into pockets deep enough to take the Nikkei back to its 1989 peak.

Their money was on the sidelines while the Nikkei 225 surged 27% in the first half of the year, as managers kept habitual below-benchmark weightings on Japan - settings that didn't budge for years while the share index disappointed.

The best first-half gains in a decade, corporate reforms and continuing ultra-easy monetary policy supporting the economic recovery have led to a change in mindset.

The research arm of BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, shifted its view on Japanese equities to neutral from underweight.

"We are looking for more evidence of corporate reform to support the enthusiasm for its equity markets that has gripped foreign investors so far this year," wrote analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, in its mid-year outlook report last week.

BlackRock's shift could be the next step in the Nikkei story and open the floodgates for other deep-pocketed investors to join in the momentum.

Nomura Securities expects others will soon follow suit. Japan's biggest brokerage estimates some 10 trillion yen ($70 billion) of potential inflows from foreign long-only investors as they rebalance portfolios in a mass migration to neutral weightings.

That amount would be enough to lift the Nikkei 5,000 points, Nomura said. It would take the index, which closed on Wednesday at 33,338.70 points, within striking distance of the 1989 peak of 38,957.44 during Japan's bubble era when asset prices were greatly inflated.

"It's not the case that we've already seen the completion of offshore investors' quite aggressive investment in Japan equity markets," said Nomura's chief equity strategist for Japan, Yunosuke Ikeda.

"Although we see some temporary unwinding, inflows will continue."

To The Moon

"I don't think the Nikkei will come back to the old range between 25,000-30,000," said a Japanese pension fund manager who requested anonymity as he is not authorised to speak to media.

The fund manager said 39,000 "is not just a dream. It's achievable. It's not a moon shot."

Archie Ciganer, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, said his firm has been fielding inquiries about Japan investment from clients or regions that never inquired about Japan in the past.

"A lot of sticky money is moving into Japan," he said. "It's a lot of people who always used to have an underweight," with the poor performance and negative sentiment surrounding China's markets this year prompting global investors to look elsewhere.

"Japan has been attractive for quite some time, but you always had other markets that were more attractive or equally attractive, and China was one of them," Ciganer said.

"Now, a lot of asset owners have decided just not to invest in China any more, and that's made Japan the top dog in Asia." 'Top dog in Asia': Nikkei's Stellar Rise Starts Drawing Big Money_1

'Top dog in Asia': Nikkei's Stellar Rise Starts Drawing Big Money_1

'Top dog in Asia': Nikkei's Stellar Rise Starts Drawing Big Money_2

Although billionaire investor Warren Buffett has grabbed headlines with his Japan stock purchases, a lot of inflows have been from so-called fast money overseas, such as algorithmic traders or hedge funds investing with borrowed money.

The Nikkei soared as high as 33,772.89 on June 19, its highest point in 33 years, but faced a sharp pullback toward the end of the month as short-term investors booked profits.

Overseas investors had been net buyers of Japanese stocks every week since the end of March, snapping up a cumulative 9.9 trillion yen in equities, but for the week through June 24 sold a net 543.8 billion yen, data showed.

Many analysts and investors, though, consider the declines a healthy and necessary retracement before the next leg higher, with 35,000 often touted as a target for this year as slower-moving foreign investors start to buy in size.

"The change under way is apparent," said Vikas Pershad, portfolio manager for Asian equities at M&G Investments.

"We're in the early stages of a long-term move higher in Japan's equity market. There will be new peaks ahead."

($1 = 144.6200 yen)

Source: The Globe and Mail

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Cohen

Stocks

Dismissal of this year's much-scorned equity market rally as the frothy preserve of a handful of AI-fuelled stocks may be both misleading and also one of its strengths.

Despite a 16% rise in the most-tracked S&P500 index of leading stocks and the best first half for the tech-heavy Nasdaq in 40 years, a recession-wary, bond-loaded investment world has repeatedly batted away 2023's stock market rebound as too narrow, top-heavy and unsustainable.

The central charge is that an equal-weight version of the S&P500 - a proxy for the average stock that assigns equal weight to each one regardless of company size - has only gained about 6%. Or, put another way, if you remove the top 10 stocks, the other 490 would only have gained 4%.

And an eye-popping 75% surge in the high-octane 10-stock FANG+TM index - mega cap U.S. digital and tech stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - underlines that.

Yet this is not some obscure corner of the equity universe. These are of the biggest stocks on the planet - with Apple the first company to ever clock a $3 trillion market cap last week.

They sit in most mixed portfolios and variously wend their way into tech, growth, quality, defensive and even sustainability-themed investment buckets. In short, they're hard to avoid unless you dodge either U.S.-listed companies or equity markets altogether.

And the estimated $7.1 trillion of indexed assets directly tracking the most-benchmarked index in the world might not care hugely how that 16% gain arrived.

Although gains for the small-cap Russell 2000 have been more modest at 7.7%, exposure to the widest measure of the publicly-listed U.S. stock universe - the Wilshere 5000 - would also have bagged you a return of 16%.

But even if you assume the relative narrowness of the U.S. stock rally questions its sustainabilty, is flattered by ChatGPT-type hype or even somehow presages a quick reversal - the global view paints a different story.

Societe Generale's Andrew Lapthorne points out that not only has the MSCI all-country index jumped 13% since January, but equal-weight MSCI Europe, Japan and U.S. indices have seen the best start to the year since 1998.

"While the U.S. obsesses about performance being concentrated in just a few stocks, the overall rally is actually quite broad," he wrote, adding that the AI-spin was not the only game in town and combined with numerous other investment themes. Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_1

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_1

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_2

Narrow minded?

While the AI theme seems to have electrified growth stocks in the United States, it is cheap, beaten 'value stocks' in Europe and Japan that have driven outsize performance - with defence, 'geo-economics' and even currency playing differing roles.

Japan's Nikkei has hit its highest in 33 years after its best start to the year since 1999, with gains of almost 30%. Germany's DAX has added 15% and hit a record high in June. Italy's financials-heavy FTSE MIB has climbed almost 20% to its highest in 15 years.

And while many put down U.S. excitement around artificial intelligence to hype or a mini bubble, there are others who think the leap in so-called generative AI will start to fan out beyond the leading lights and chip infrastructure stocks now benefitting most and infuse other sectors.

Consultants McKinsey reckon generative AI will have a significant impact in all sectors, with banking, high tech and life sciences to the fore.

Across the banking industry, it estimated the technology could deliver value equal to an additional $200-$340 billion annually if the use cases were fully implemented. In retail and consumer packaged goods, it saw a potential impact as high as $400-$660 billion a year.

And yet despite all the first quarter heat and optimism, global investors remain hugely biased towards bonds and underweight equities.

And this persistent skew in positioning may be one of the best arguments for broadening the equity advance over the remainder of the year - assuming some other shock or an unexpected economic nosedive doesn't in fact materialise.

As Bank of America's survey of global fund managers showed in June, investors were their most overweight in bonds in eight years, held a net underweight position in world equities that's more than two standard deviations below historical averages, and see Big Tech stocks as the most crowded trade.

New shocks aside, there appears to be plenty of scope for further rebalancing just to get back to more normal holdings.

The big challenge for many savers and investors will be whether to forgo pumped-up cash returns of circa 5% - which have more than doubled over the past year.

But as Schroders strategist Duncan Lamont points out, that only makes sense for investors with relatively short horizons.

Over the past 96 years, Lamont showed that returns on U.S. large cap stocks have beaten inflation more often than cash over any time horizons from one to 20 years. For every 20-year timeframe, equities delivered inflation-beating returns - but cash only managed to do those two thirds of the time.

"While stock market investments may be risky in the short run, when viewed against inflation they have offered far more certainty in the long run," he told clients. Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_4

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_4

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_5

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_6

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally_7

Source: Market Screener

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Alex

Stocks

U.S. stocks' tendency to move in sync has plunged to near-record lows, but what might seem like a stock picker's dream may actually be a mirage, and investors may be in for a rude awakening.

S&P 500 correlation - a gauge of herd behavior, which measures how closely daily returns of index constituents align over a month - slipped to 0.22 at the end of June, close to the lowest since November 2021, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. That means that many stocks are moving in different directions.

Investors expect stocks to move increasingly out of sync as shown by the Cboe 3-Month Implied Correlation Index, which measures the 3-month expected average correlation across the top 50 value-weighted S&P 500 stocks. The Index touched a record low of 17.59 on Wednesday.

That would typically lower risk and offer more opportunities for stock pickers. But with the bulk of the market's gains being driven by a handful of mega cap names and a crowd of market bets on continued low correlation, investors may be relying on a false sense of calm.

"The risk metrics that look quiescent and favoring idiosyncrasy may in fact be a chimera much more vulnerable to a macro shock than implied currently," said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at EAB Investment Group.

History suggests such narrow breadth can set the market up for a sudden surge of volatility.

"From these low levels of stock correlations, equity volatility has historically risen," UBS strategists said in a note on Wednesday.

The Cboe Volatility Index, the so-called Wall Street 'fear gauge,' which recently closed at it lowest in nearly 3-1/2 years, has generally jumped by 10 points over the coming quarter when 1-year stock correlations have been at the current low levels, the strategists said.

The last time 3-month implied correlation got this low was in early 2018, just before the February 2018 urge in market volatility dubbed 'Volmageddon.'

The low correlation now is in stark contrast to late last year when investors were laser-focused on macro factors including employment, growth and inflation, leading stocks to move in sync.

This year, however, with the U.S. Federal Reserve close to the end of its hiking cycle, economic data has lost some of its ability to sway stocks en masse.

Much of today's low stock market correlation has to do with the gulf in performance between a handful of mega caps driving the benchmark index higher and the rest of the market.

While the S&P 500 has gained 16%, its equal-weight equivalent, which dilutes the impact of the largest companies in the index, has risen just 6%.

That leaves less room to pick winners.

"You have this view in the market that this is a stock picker's market because correlation is low," EAB Investment Group's Holzer said.

"The problem is that this is not that environment," he said.

For some investors, it also means thinking outside of large caps.

"Given the narrowness of the market so far this year, we suggest investors consider an S&P equal-weight strategy or U.S. mid-caps for cash earmarked for U.S. large caps," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset Capital.

"History suggests the average stock will 'catch up' with the mega caps over the next 12 months," Ablin said.

Coiled Markets

One trade that has drawn investors in recent months is the so-called long dispersion trade - where traders sell index volatility while buying volatility on constituents - essentially betting on individual stocks not being strongly correlated, Kris Sidial, co-chief investment officer of volatility arbitrage fund the Ambrus Group.

This, in addition to general selling of volatility as markets skipped higher this year, has crushed volatility and correlations.

"It's a big pile-on into short volatility and short correlation," Sidial said.

But that also sets up the stage for a rapid upheaval when the calm breaks.

"When you have one side of the market that has piled into a trade, when that trade unwinds, it can be very rapid," he said. said.

For investors, the pricing on index hedges that would guard against a big jump in volatility is more attractive than it has been for a while.

"Because correlations are so low, index options have gotten incredibly cheap," said Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler said.

Source: KFGO

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Damon

Bond

All eyes on Europe's service sector

The heavy focus currently placed on service inflation from both markets and central banks means today's PMI services should prove an interesting addition to the economic debate. The only problem is, the reports are second releases and so it is doubtful whether they will provide a lot of new information. Still, the fear of slower but more deeply entrenched price rises in that sector makes qualitative indicators all the more useful. The value of their employment component also stems from the lack of timely labour market indicators, especially with the European Central Bank (ECB) intent on making policy decisions on backward-looking indicators such as wages.

Despite relative resilience in Europe's service sector – which is perhaps still riding the post-Covid wave of optimism – the deterioration of the outlook in other sectors has driven the outperformance of euro-denominated government bonds relative to their dollar-denominated peers. At the long-end, the euro outperformance has in part reverted a hard to justify convergence of forward rates; for instance, the 5Y swap rate in five years' time (5Y5Y). This is not the most spectacular case of rates divergence within the developed market interest rates complex, however.

Torn between contradictory signals of economic slowdown but sticky inflation, sterling rates have risen well past the value of their US dollar equivalents. Despite the significant flattening of the UK curve over the past month, sterling rates are the only ones displaying a clear upward momentum. The fact is that this cycle's inflation fight will require a more aggressive tightening campaign on the Bank of England's part, and will probably be more protracted. This doesn't mean indicators of long-term rates (such as 5Y5Y swaps) should meaningfully rise above that of the US, however. Long End Rates Are Also Diverging_1

Today's events and market view

Ahead of Germany's factory order and industrial production (IP) to be released tomorrow and Friday respectively, IP figures for France and Spain will be published this morning.

Services PMI for Europe this morning are all second readings except for Italy and Spain. A further decline in the services index would undermine the ECB's hawkish message, with employment and price components of particular interest.

The ECB publishes its monthly consumer survey which includes questions on inflation expectations. The disinflation narrative should receive a boost from Eurozone PPI settling around negative values.

US data consists of factory and durable goods orders. This will be followed by the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, where the Fed's committee decided not to increase rates for the first time since early 2022. The Fed will be keen for markets to see the hawkish side of that decision and that it heralds a more protracted tightening cycle. The Fed's dot plot still implies 100bp of cuts in 2024. Fed communication may well chip away at that message next.

Bond supply consists of the UK selling 3Y debt.

Source: ING

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Samantha Luan

Forex

USD: Back from holiday

Thinner volumes at the start of this week have coincided with some moderate support for commodity currencies in the G10 space. US markets re-open today and we expect some pick up in FX volatility, with both Fed communication and data coming into focus.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting are the main highlight today. First of all, the minutes will shed some light on the compromise between keeping rates on hold but strongly signalling more hikes ahead. From a market perspective, it will be key to gauge where most of the committee sees core inflation dynamics going and the scope for further tightening. Markets will also be sensitive to any details about members' positions on rate cuts. We heard some strong pushback by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference against cuts in 2024, but the dot plot projections show easing starting sometime next year.

Overall, the dot plot projections and the post-meeting Fed communication suggest that markets may not find many hints to recalibrate their tightening expectations lower today. If anything, the trigger for such a dynamic would be weak US data. Today, the calendar is not particularly heavy in the US: factory orders for May and the final print of durable goods orders. Tomorrow's ISM services and ADP employment figures are a bigger risk event for the dollar.

EUR: Eyes on the doves

EUR/USD traded on the soft side yesterday, despite other pro-cyclical currencies finding some support. However, this appears to be mostly market noise and the pair may struggle to find clear direction before key US data are released later this week. Even then, our perception is that – barring major data surprises – the uncertainty surrounding a second hike by the Fed after July and the European Central Bank's hawkish message (which has offset weak eurozone data) can keep EUR/USD in a 1.08-1.10 range for longer.

Today, the eurozone calendar includes PPI numbers for May, some national industrial production data and final PMI readings for June. Those are normally non-market-moving releases. Some reaction could come from the consumer expectation survey, which includes inflation expectation figures. The focus will also be on ECB speakers: Joachim Nagel (who recently stuck to his hawkish rhetoric), plus some more dovish members (Ignazio Visco, Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Pablo Hernandez de Cos). Markets are pricing in 38bp of tightening by September and an alarming tone on core inflation from the doves might help markets fully price in that move.

RON: Too early for a change of tone

Today, the highlight of the day will be the meeting of the National Bank of Romania. In line with the market, we expect no change in the interest rate, which currently sits at 7.00%. Headline inflation fell from 11.2% to 10.6% in May, the lowest figure in the CEE region. Despite disinflation, core inflation remains a concern for the central bank. It is therefore too early yet for the NBR to consider any rate cuts, and the main policy and market focus is on liquidity management in the market. The latter has been running record surpluses in recent months, leading to a fall in interbank market rates well below the monetary policy rate. We expect the NBR to maintain a hawkish tone and see the first rate cut only in January next year.

On the FX side, we saw the NBR let the leu weaken slightly above the EUR/RON 4.95 level and the playing field is currently 4.95-4.97. We expect to see a similar move once or twice more before the end of the year, which should take EUR/RON to 5.02 by the end of the year. Given the unclear timing, the spot market does not have much to offer. However, we believe this central bank approach will add pressure on the leu, which will be an opportunity for the NBR to withdraw excess liquidity from the market and push interbank rates and FX implied yields back up.

PLN: Record strong zloty day before NBP decision

The two-day meeting of the National Bank of Poland starts today in Poland. While we can expect headlines tomorrow, the Polish zloty is once again clamouring for attention. EUR/PLN touched its lowest levels since early 2021 yesterday. We remain positive on the zloty, however, as we estimate that positioning must be extremely long at the moment –most significantly in the CEE region. Moreover, we can expect a dovish report from the NBP tomorrow.

The market has priced in a lot of rate cuts for this year over the past week without significant damage to the zloty. Thus, the current account surplus, strong FDI flows and the dampening of volatility through MinFin operations in the market will continue to support the zloty, but we expect further gains to be at a slower pace.

Source: ING

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What Would Happen if Ukraine Joined NATO?

Source: Reuters

Minutes Meted, China Crunch

Source: Yahoo

'Top dog in Asia': Nikkei's Stellar Rise Starts Drawing Big Money

Source: The Globe and Mail

Broadening Horizons - Deceptive Breadth of Equity Rally

Source: Market Screener

Out-of-Sync U.S. Stocks Hide Market Risks

Source: KFGO

Long End Rates Are Also Diverging

Source: ING

Dollar Bears Still Need Data Evidence

Source: ING

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