Wheat Bulls Head South on Friday

Cotton futures ended the Friday session with loses of 71 to 86 points, as March slipped 84 points this week. The outside markets were mixed factors, with the US dollar index up slightly and crude oil shooting $1.07barrel higher.

Commitment of Traders data showed a total of 5,840 contracts added to the spec funds net short position as of Tuesday, taking the position to 22,223 contracts by December 12.

Export Sales data took total cotton shipments to 2.293 million RB, down 12% from last year and 22% of USDA’s export forecast, lagging the 25% average shipping pace for this time of year. Total shipped and unshipped commitments are 7.012 million RB, down 12% from a year ago. That is also 66% of the USDA projection, behind the 73% average pace.

The Seam reported 5,661 bales of online sales on December 12 at an average price of 64.99 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were unchanged on Thursday, at 20,113 bales of certified stocks. The Cotlook A Index was up 65 points on 12/12 at 80.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was cut by 152 points on Thursday to 56.22 cents/lb.

Mar 25 Cotton closed at 69.27, down 82 points,

May 25 Cotton closed at 70.41, down 86 points,

Jul 25 Cotton closed at 71.41, down 85 points

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Lean hog futures rallied to close out the week, with contracts up 97 cents to $1.35 and Dec rolling off the board up 17 cents. February was up just 47 cents this week. The national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $78.93 on Friday afternoon, which was down 9 cents from the day prior. The CME Lean Hog Index was reported at $83.92 on December 11, up 31 cents from the previous day.

Managed money trimmed back 2,748 contracts from their record net long position in lean hogs and futures as of 12/10, taking it to 130,759 contracts.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout value reported back higher on Friday PM, up $2.30 at $94.61 per cwt. The rib was the only cut reported lower, with the belly leading the upside charge, up $8.99. USDA estimated the weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.573 million head. That was 29,000 head below last week and down 121,652 head from the same week last year.

Dec 24 Hogs closed at $83.725, up $0.175,

Feb 25 Hogs closed at $85.600, up $1.125

Apr 25 Hogs closed at $89.750, up $1.300,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Live cattle futures held gains of 22 cents to $1.52 in the front months on Friday, with deferreds 17 to 25 cents lower. February was up $5.85 on the week spurred by the cash strength. Cash action was at $191-192 trade in the South this week, with trade up to $195-196 in the North. There were no deliveries issued against December live cattle again on Friday. Feeder cattle posted losses of 60 to 90 cents on the session. January was up $1.82 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $1.61 from the day prior at $262.59 on December 12.

The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed a total of 3,908 contracts added to the large managed money net long position as of 12/10, taking the position to 126,308 contracts. In feeder cattle, they added 1,012 contracts to their net long at 19,866 contracts by Tuesday.

USDA wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the Friday afternoon report. Choice boxes were up $1.15 to $316.39/cwt, with Select $3.38 higher @ $283.86. USDA estimated this week’s federally inspected cattle slaughter at 609,000 head. That is 5,000 head below the previous week and down 38,172 from the same week last year.

Dec 24 Live Cattle closed at $193.650, up $1.525,

Feb 25 Live Cattle closed at $192.025, up $1.175,

Apr 25 Live Cattle closed at $193.000, up $0.825,

Jan 25 Feeder Cattle closed at $257.650, down $0.700,

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle closed at $257.675, down $0.900,

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle closed at $258.525, down $0.700,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Corn futures ended the week on a lower note, as contracts were down 1 ¾ to 2 ¾ cents at the close with Dec rolling off the board. Despite the late week pressure, March was up 2 cents since last Friday. The national average Cash Corn price from cmdtyView was down 2 cents at $4.13.

Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding 77,670 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday’s close. That net position was 165,890 contracts on December 10, the largest in 22 months. Commercials added 82,715 contracts to their net short, now at 386,100 contracts by Tuesday.

Following the release of the weekly Export Sales report, accumulated corn shipments are now 12.567 MMT. That is up 31% from last year and 20% of USDA’s new export projection, ahead of the 17% average pace. If you through in the unshipped sales, commitments are 35.138 MMT, 29% above last year. That is also 56% of the USDA number, with the average pace at 53%.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs the Argentina corn crop at 55.6% planted, running ahead of the normal pace.

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.30, down 1 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash was $4.13, down 2 cents,

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 25 Corn closed at $4.49 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Soybeans ignored the export business reported this morning, as contracts were down 5 3/4 to 8 ¼ cents to close out the day. January ended the week with a loss of 5 ½ cents. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price was down 7 1/2 cents at $9.39 3/4. Soymeal futures were down $2.40 to 3.60/ton on the day. Soy Oil futures were 3 to 19 points lower on the session.

CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed a total of 13,897 contracts covered from the spec funds net short position in soybean futures and options as of 12/10, taking the position to -58,320 contracts. Commercials were at a net short of 27,087 contracts by Tuesday a 7,898 contract increase.

USDA reported a private export sale of 200,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/25 this morning. Export Sales data shows total shipments at 23.487 MMT, 22% larger than last year and a 4-year high. That is 47% of USDA’s 1.825 bbu full year estimate, ahead of the 43% average pace. Bean commitments are 37.284 MMT, now 12% above last year and 75% of the USDA projection, on pace with normal.

NOPA data will be updated on Monday, with the trade looking for 196.713 mbu of soybeans crushed during November. Stocks are estimated at 1.123 billion lbs.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange data shows the Argentine soybean crop at 64.7% planted, running near normal pace.

Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.88 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash was $9.39 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.95, down 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16, down 7 3/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

By Kirk Maltais

Cattle prices hit record highs this week on concerns about disruptions to beef imports in the U.S. due to a double-whammy of potential tariffs and insect infestations.

Live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closed at a new record high of $1.92225 a pound on Friday, according to data from FactSet.

The U.S. is a net importer of beef and President-elect Donald Trump's threats to institute new tariffs on major trading partners could make the domestic beef supply a lot tighter.

"The concern over tariffs is real, given the number of feeder cattle we import as well," said Karl Setzer, who heads research firm Consus Ag Consulting.

In its monthly supply and demand report released Tuesday, the Agriculture Department said the U.S. is expected to have imported 4.59 billion pounds of beef in 2024, with that number expected to rise to 4.71 billion pounds in 2025. Meanwhile, exports are expected to total 2.96 billion pounds this year, and to decline to 2.6 billion pounds next year.

The U.S. is set to be a net importer of agricultural goods for the second straight year in 2024, with imports forecast at $215.5 billion, 27% higher than the forecast for agricultural exports.

Canada and Mexico are among the leading countries exporting beef to the U.S., making the tariff threats on these countries particularly important to the cattle industry.

Trump has said that he would institute a 25% tariff on imports to the U.S. coming from Mexico and Canada, due to what he says is a failure of those countries to protect the U.S.'s borders from illegal migration and drug trafficking.

The threat of tariffs comes after the USDA put restrictions on cattle coming from or traveling through Mexico following the explosion in cases of New World screwworm in Central America and Mexico.

New World screwworm is the name for the larvae of certain flies that bury into animal flesh and are potentially fatal to their host. The detection of the maggots in cattle from the Mexican state of Chiapas--which borders Guatemala--marks the second recorded case of the pest in Mexico this year, according to data from the Panama-United States Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm, also known as COPEG. That was enough for the USDA to institute new lockdown measures as of late November preventing the import of cattle into the U.S.

"I think a lot of folks dismissed the issue initially because they thought it would be over and done within a week or so," said independent livestock trader Dan Norcini. A USDA official late last month said that trade of cattle at the U.S.-Mexico border is expected to resume in January.

Mexico's Agriculture Ministry said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with the USDA on protocols for inspections of cattle to be exported to the U.S. Mexico detected a case of screwworm in the southern state of Chiapas on Nov. 21, in an animal the ministry said came from Central America. The ministry said authorities had inspected 116,000 head of cattle in Chiapas since Oct. 28.

Authorities are working to develop new processes to better protect animals, as the U.S.-Mexico border remains closed to cattle, according to the USDA. Screwworm has been an issue for cattle production for decades, with COPEG created in February 1994 in an agreement between Panama's agricultural department and the USDA.

Efforts to prevent widespread screwworm infestations are focused on stopping them from ever starting, according to COPEG. This begins at a plant in Pacora, Panama, where sterilized screwworm flies are produced and then introduced into the existing population in order to mitigate their reproduction and limit their ability to spread.

The Pacora plant at full capacity is able to produce 100 million sterile insects a week, COPEG says. In order to combat the resurgence of screwworm infestations, COPEG is increasing its production of sterilized flies to that full capacity, dropping more flies per week into what the agency calls its "Permanent Biological Barrier Zone," near the Panama-Colombian border.

COPEG reports nearly 23,000 cases of screwworm infestation in Panama this year, with another 12,000 in Costa Rica and over 6,000 in Nicaragua.

• Anthony Harrup contributed to this article.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com