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Why Is Western Union (WU) Down 2.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Western Union (WU). Shares have lost about 2.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Western Union due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Western Union's Q3 Earnings Beat on Branded Digital Strength
Western Union reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 46 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.6%. The bottom line advanced 7% year over year.
However, total revenues declined 6% on a reported basis to $1.04 billion due to a fall in contributions from Iraq, partly offset by a well-performing Branded Digital business. Additionally, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4%.
The quarterly results benefited from strong transaction growth in the Branded Digital business, retail foreign exchange business strength and the introduction of its media network business. A decline in overall expenses also provided some respite to margins. However, the upside was partly offset by reduced contributions from Iraq and a decline in revenues from the Consumer Services (CS) unit.
Q3 Performance of WU
Adjusted operating margin was 19.1%, which deteriorated 50 basis points (bps) year over year due to reduced contributions from operations in Iraq and strategic investments in new and expanded CS products.
Total expenses of $871.1 million slipped 2% year over year but were higher than our estimate of $830.3 million. The year-over-year decline was due to lower costs of services. The company incurred $18 million in redeployment costs.
Operating income fell 22% year over year to $164.9 million, which fell short of our estimate of $201.7 million.
Segment Analysis of WU
The Consumer Money Transfer, or CMT, segment recorded revenues of $932.2 million, which tumbled 9% on a reported basis and 8% on an adjusted basis. The metric also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $949 million and our estimate of $943 million.
Operating income dipped 3% year over year to $188.3 million, which missed the consensus mark and our estimate of $189.1 million. The operating income margin of 20.2% improved 120 bps year over year.
Transactions within the CMT segment grew 3% year over year, attributable to 15% transaction growth in the Branded Digital business. Branded Digital revenues, which accounted for 25% of CMT’s third-quarter revenues, advanced 8% on a reported basis and 9% on an adjusted basis.
The CS segment’s revenues climbed 32% on a reported basis or 15% on an adjusted basis to $103.8 million. The metric surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $83.2 million and our estimate of $89 million. The year-over-year growth was driven by the expansion of the company’s retail foreign exchange business and its newly introduced media network business, along with the sustained strength of the retail money order business.
However, operating income dropped 58% year over year to $9.2 million in the unit, lower than the consensus mark and our estimate of $15.6 million. Operating income margin of 8.7% deteriorated 1,880 bps year over year.
WU’s Financial Position (as of Sept. 30, 2024)
Western Union exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.1 billion, which tumbled 13.5% from the 2023-end level.
Total assets of $7.7 billion fell 6.4% from the figure at 2023-end.
Borrowings were $2.6 billion, which increased 3.3% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2023.
Total stockholders' equity of $652.7 million climbed 36.3% from the 2023-end figure.
WU generated net cash from operations of $272.3 million in the first nine months of 2024, which plunged 47.5% from the prior-year comparable period.
Western Union’s Capital Deployment
Western Union rewarded its shareholders with $239 million in dividends and share buybacks worth $177 million in the first nine months of 2024.
2024 Guidance of WU
Management continues to expect adjusted revenues to be between $4.150 billion and $4.225 billion.
Adjusted EPS is still anticipated to be in the range of $1.70-$1.80, the mid-point of which indicates a 0.6% improvement from the 2023 level. GAAP EPS is currently forecasted within the band of $1.94-$2.04, higher than the earlier guided range of $1.62-$1.72.
Adjusted operating margin is still expected to be between 19% and 21%. The metric was 19.6% in 2023.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Western Union has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Western Union has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Western Union is part of the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry. Over the past month, Fiserv (FI), a stock from the same industry, has gained 7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.
Fiserv reported revenues of $4.88 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.8%. EPS of $2.30 for the same period compares with $1.96 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Fiserv is expected to post earnings of $2.48 per share, indicating a change of +13.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.1% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Fiserv. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
Zacks Investment Research
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