Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers

Economic

Summary:

The industry anticipates that no matter what the new U.S. president does, it stands to make a lot of money. Much of Europe is anxious about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but there’s little to suggest the continent’s arms manufacturers expect a crisis.

Europe is seeing a dramatic boost in defense budgets, driven by both long-standing pressure from Washington and the continent’s own reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That promises a glut of military contracts for weapons-makers in Europe as well as in the U.S., South Korea and elsewhere.

That also explains why the industry is relatively relaxed about Trump.

If he pulls the U.S. out of NATO and leaves Europe to go it alone, the continent will have to rely on its own arms companies, netting them a surge of contracts.

But even if the new president doesn’t do anything so radical, the enormous scale of new defense spending — the European Commission estimates that the bloc’s members will need to spend €500 billion on defense over the next decade — still means there will be a lot of money available for European defense firms.

That said, the early winner of Europe’s defense buildup is likely to be the U.S.

“The European defense industry cannot cover it all, particularly after decades of underinvestment that have seriously undermined Europe’s defense industrial capacities,” said Jan Pie, secretary-general of Brussels-based defense industry lobby ASD. "This trend must be reversed. Buying non-European ultimately means that European industry will continue struggle to get a return on its investments will over time lose its technological know-how and related skills."

Roughly 55 percent of Europe’s arms imports from 2019 to 2023 were from America, sharply up on 35 percent over the preceding five years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_1

Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_1

“In terms of deliveries, the actual volume of weapons transferred from the U.S. to European states is ... planned to increase significantly in the coming years,” said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at SIPRI, adding that those deals had “nothing to do with Trump” but rather with the scramble for gear following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

That trend could shift even more in America’s favor if countries attempt to curry favor with Trump by placing more contracts with U.S. companies.

“We don’t know much of Trump’s intentions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if countries, especially in the east, will buy more and more American stuff,” a European diplomat said.

Doubts remain, however — mostly regarding how Trump will act.

“Deterrence is a mind game, it’s not a weapons game,” said Christian Mölling, who tracks defense procurement for the Bertelsmann Foundation. “I’m questioning the underlining assumption that you can buy yourself American leadership through weapons deals.”

For now, American companies are doing well, selling Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighters, AH-64 Apache helicopters, Patriot air defense system, Abrams tanks and more to countries across the continent.

But EU nations that are modernizing their militaries, such as Poland and Romania, also procure from European arms-makers, and that’s unlikely to end soon, no matter what Trump does.

Poland last year spent €1.5 billion on thousands of Carl Gustaf M4 recoilless rifles and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition from Sweden, while in 2023 it bought Saab 340 early warning and control aircraft.

Warsaw is also mulling buying Eurofighter Typhoons, manufactured by a consortium of Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo, within its continued air force modernization.

Romania is buying Mistral 3 air defense missiles from France.

Other European countries show similar patterns. Some 15 European countries are on track to buy F-35As, but the Eurofighter Typhoon is looking at new sales to Germany, Italy and Spain. Saab is also continuing to push its JAS 39 Gripen fighter, last year selling four to Hungary.

The early signal from Trump is that he wants defense spending to rise steeply.

Of NATO’s 32 members, 24 now meet the alliance target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, and Trump is pushing for that to rise to 5 percent — a figure that only Poland comes close to meeting at the moment, with Lithuania having pledged to hit it in the future.

Even if NATO falls short of that target, it’s clear that defense budgets, and defense contracts, will continue to go up.

“The pressure Trump is creating at the moment is good for Europe,” Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger told Bloomberg this month.

Although European companies will do well, there are limits on how much of that increased spending they’ll be able to absorb.

Defense officials insist Europe needs America’s defense industry more than ever, a recognition that the U.S. military-industrial complex supplies a lot of kit that Europe can’t match thanks to the scale of its arms firms. Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_2

Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_2

Speaking to the European Parliament earlier this month, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte banged the drum for faster imports of American arms.

“This was my argument with Trump, open up the U.S. defense market,” Rutte told lawmakers of his discussions with the incoming president. “Because if you want to buy something in the in the U.S., you have to go through Congress, the White House, the Defense Department, Pentagon, etc., before you can get your hands on the Patriot system.”

But European capitals also want to ensure that some of that extra cash goes to domestic companies.

To bolster European production, in his report last year on the state of the EU’s economic competitiveness, former Italian PM Mario Draghi called on EU members to aggregate demand and to raise the share of joint defense procurement.

“As EU defence spending rises, defence industrial consolidation, integration and technological innovation should be supported by reinforced European preference principles in procurement, ensuring that a minimum share of this rising demand is concentrated on European companies rather than flowing overseas,” Draghi wrote.

That’s an idea backed by Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson.

“The more we build a common Europe with common procurement with common standards, the easier it will be to achieve large scale,” he told POLITICO.

Despite the scale of some U.S. companies, Europe still has heavyweights. From two rival programs to develop sixth-generation fighter planes, to a Franco-German project to research a new tank, a program to develop new naval corvettes, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, and billions pouring into drone development, European companies expect to continue scoring big contracts as the continent rearms.

“There’s so much money going around,” Rutte said in the European Parliament. “Be good businessmen ... Don’t lose out to the South Koreans.”

Source:politico europe

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Glendon

Commodity

BENGALURU (Jan 21): Gold prices rose for a second session on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, with markets evaluating the possible consequences of US President Donald Trump's policies in his second term after his inauguration.

Spot gold had gained 0.6% to US$2,724.74 (RM12,200.02) per ounce by 0240 GMT. US gold futures were 0.2% lower at US$2,742.50.

The dollar was down about 1% after reports suggested any new taxes would be imposed in a "measured" way. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers.

"There is a sense of relief in risk sentiment to know that tariffs have not been an immediate focus. The unwinding of bets on imminent trade tensions is most evident in the US dollar," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said.

"The mixed dynamics do see gold prices holding up for now, and we may expect gold to remain an attractive hedge instrument. The US$2,720 level will be an immediate resistance to watch."

After weeks of global speculation over which duties Trump would impose tariffs on his first day in office, news that Trump would take more time on tariffs drove a relief rally in global stocks and pressured the US dollar.

Trump had proposed tariffs of up to 10% on global imports, 60% on Chinese goods, and a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products.

While gold is traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, Trump's policies are seen as inflationary, which could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, affecting gold's appeal.

The degree to which the incoming administration implements Trump's policy pledges will significantly influence the future direction of US interest rates.

The non-yielding bullion tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment.

Spot silver added 0.4% to US$30.61 per ounce. Palladium dropped 1.2% to US$933.25, and platinum shed 0.1% to US$941.30.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Alex

Economic

The past twelve months compressed a decade’s worth of unprecedented events into a single year. July 2024 alone saw an assassination attempt against US president-elect Donald Trump and the collapse of US President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, all but overshadowing another development with an even more enduring impact on US politics — the US Supreme Court’s sweeping ruling that US presidents’ official actions are beyond the reach of prosecution.

As we begin 2025, the intensifying presence of Donald Trump as he prepares to assume the presidency is once again the overwhelming force animating the United States’ body politic. Trump has decisively moved from anomaly to primacy in US political life as the vox populi rewarded him and the Republican Party with not only the presidency, but a majority in Congress as well.

Trump and his team likely know that the clock is already ticking on their fragile grip on power in the US House of Representatives. In their second turn at the wheel, they are likely to move with greater alacrity and dexterity in implementing Trump’s agenda. As a result, Trump’s impending presidency may be a rare instance in which the sequel proves even more gripping than the original.

Trump’s return to power is best understood as a symptom of the long hangover following the conspicuous failures of former US president George W Bush’s administration at the start of this century. Just as the Vietnam War shattered the legitimacy of the Democratic Party’s elite a generation earlier, the Iraq War, the Global Financial Crisis and the failure of two successive centrist Republicans to secure the presidency immolated the Republican establishment’s credibility with its voter base.

In his first term, Trump still had to contend with traditional Republicans in the Congressional leadership, but the majority of Republican resistance to Trump has withered in the interim.

Trump personally spearheaded the administration’s approach to key regional security issues in East Asia in his first term, pursuing a diplomatic overture to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over the qualms of his advisors and cycling through a parade of senior officials to negotiate an end to the trade war as his own inclinations shifted. But in his second term, the terms of the debate over China policy have shifted such that Trump will no longer personally define the outer limits of a hardline China policy. China hawks in his own party have carried the President’s logic a step further than he has. Some Republicans are calling for the revocation of China’s most-favoured-nation status and some hawks in Trump’s administration may see decoupling from China as the ultimate objective of his coming trade war. Trump has toggled between threats and entreaties toward China during the transition, but his comments suggest that he wants a deal with China rather than a divorce.

If the first trade war is at all instructive, the scope, scale and intensity of the second trade war will depend primarily on the dynamics between a small group of advisers in Trump’s court. Traditional economic considerations are likely to intrude only in the guise of the stock market, the fluctuations of which Trump sees as a real-time measure of his success — with downturns inhibiting his appetite for prolonging the tit-for-tat exchanges with Beijing.

The course of the second trade war in will depend less on Trump’s opening gambit and more on how Beijing responds. The trajectory will also be determined by whether or not Trump tries to expand the scope of any negotiations beyond trade to encompass security issues in East Asia as well as the impact of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Beijing has spent much of 2024 attempting to mollify Washington with gestures such as releasing detained US citizens and resuming counternarcotics cooperation with the United States — even as both sides continue to compete. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s relative forbearance may extend into the opening phases of a trade war, especially if Xi smells an opportunity for a so-called ‘grand bargain’.

Beijing’s interest in a potential grand bargain with Trump could come at a steep price. Indeed, the only outcome of a second trade war that might be more inimical to the region’s security than a downward spiral in US–China relations would be a ‘G2’ deal that trades away US security commitments in exchange for promises from China that are unlikely to materialise.

Beijing will almost certainly use the prospect of a grand bargain to advance its goal of undermining US alliances and commitments across the region. This will undo the Biden administration’s work to fortify and stitch together US partners to cope with the China challenge in the coming decade.

Beijing’s recalcitrance about helping the United States resolve other burning international problems — notably the war in Ukraine and the conflagration in the Middle East — may be the most likely way Trump is disabused of the notion that China is the answer to his problems, rather than the United States’ chief challenge.

Source：EASTASIAFORUM

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Owen Li

Economic

The poll showed the UK moved up from the fourth most important destination for investment in 2024, with senior executives also seeing a brighter economic outlook ahead for Britain in 2025.

The PwC survey found that 14 per cent of chief executives from around the world believe the UK will draw the greatest proportion of international investment, behind only the US, with 30 per cent. UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_1

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_1

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They are followed by Germany with 12 per cent, China with 9 per cent and India with 7 per cent in the top five.

PwC described the findings as a “vote of confidence in the UK”, with almost two thirds (61 per cent) of British chief executives optimistic about the country's economic growth prospects in the next 12 months, up from 39 per cent in 2023.

It comes after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves faced mounting questions over flagging UK growth, the impact of her recent Budget measures and rising UK debt levels, with concerns about the pound slumping and government borrowing costs spike sharply this month.

Last week’s weaker-than-expected growth figures, showing a meagre 0.1 per cent expansion in November, heightened fears of a stalling economy.

The recent sell-off in UK government bonds – also known as gilts – has calmed, but experts worry the rout could resume on further disappointing data or unfavourable trade policies from new US President Donald Trump. UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_2

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_2

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“Our CEO survey findings are a vote of confidence in the UK as a place for business and investment,” Marco Amitrano, senior partner of PwC UK, said.

“The UK’s relative stability at a time of instability should not be underestimated, nor should its strength in key sectors including technology.

“However, there is no room for complacency. Reasserting Britain’s place on the global stage requires a tangible path to growth and a consistent government approach to business and investment.”

Ms Reeves, who is this week attending the Word Economic Forum gathering of business and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland, said: “These latest results show global CEOs are backing Britain and the UK is one of the most attractive destinations for international investment.

“And it’s this investment that will help drive economic growth and improve living standards across the UK.” UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_3

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_3

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Despite fears that her Budget measures to increase wage costs for businesses will hit hiring, the survey showed that over half (53 per cent) of UK chief executives plan to increase their workforces this year, up from 48 per cent in 2023.

But longer-term confidence of bosses in their own businesses has been knocked back, with 57 per cent of UK chief executives feeling very positive about their organisation’s prospects over three years, compared with 61 per cent in last year’s survey.

British business leaders are also leading the way in using artificial intelligence (AI) in their firms, with 93 per cent of chief executives saying their firms have now adopted the technology in some way – more than double the 42 per cent in 2023 and higher than the 83 per cent global adoption rate.

But just 36 per cent of UK bosses anticipate AI boosting their profits over the next year, compared with 49 per cent globally, while only 14 per cent of UK chief executives said they saw profit improvements from AI over the past 12 months.

“UK business has begun to move beyond the initial hype of GenAI to the reality of making it work – but that shouldn’t detract from its huge unrealised potential,” Mr Amitrano said.

The survey also revealed that 98 per cent of UK business bosses are planning to make material changes to their business models to stay competitive.

PwC surveyed 4,701 chief executives across 109 countries and territories from October 1 through to November 8, 2024.

Source:The national news

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Owen Li

Economic

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rallied amid expectations that Mr Trump's policies will promote the adoption of digital assets. Bitcoin was trading at $106,014.33 at 4.42pm UAE time on Monday.

"Bitcoin’s recent breach of $109,000 on Monday is a historic milestone, and I firmly believe this is only the beginning," said Nigel Green, chief executive of wealth management company deVere Group.

"We forecast that it could surge to $150,000 by mid-2025, driven by a confluence of factors including a pro-crypto Trump administration, heightened institutional investment, growing retail enthusiasm, and favourable regulatory developments globally. The ongoing momentum suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its status as a dominant global asset class," he said.

Bitcoin had a stellar 2024, more than doubling from $44,000 to top $100,000 for the first time on the back of Mr Trump's White House win and the launch of Bitcoin sport exchange traded funds (ETFs) in January last year.

"Trump has vowed to make the US a crypto capital for the world, with policies that push for the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin stockpile," said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.

"Crypto is here to stay, with eight states in the US introducing bills proposing crypto reserves, along with at least 13 more states preparing for similar legislation. Additionally, supporting the rally, net inflows of $1.86 billion were reported by US Bitcoin spot ETFs last week, taking the total net flow to $2.42 in the new year."

In the short term, according to Fibonacci extension levels, prices could see the $132,000 level as the first target, with a further target at $149,778, close to the psychological $150,000 level mark, Mr Valecha said.

Crypto markets perform in line with risky assets, and Bitcoin has performed best during improving US liquidity conditions, said Manuel Villegas, digital assets analyst at Julius Baer. "Overall, crypto markets are positively positioned ahead of Trump’s inauguration, the outlook on policy changes is big, and volatility is unlikely to subside anytime soon.

"That said, ETF flows are moving ahead of the inauguration, anticipating a little bit of ‘hot sauce’ to further warm up markets," he added. Julius Baer's outlook for the first quarter "remains stable, contingent on sustained demand and constrained supplies, with swings exacerbated by the macroeconomic environment", Mr Villegas said.

Mr Green also cautioned that investors must remain strategic amid the boom in crypto prices, keeping a focus on diversification and a long-term perspective. “While the current rally is incredibly promising, it’s important to note that it won't be a straight line to $150,000," he said.

"Market corrections are inevitable as investors periodically lock in profits, but these pullbacks are not a sign of weakness. Instead, they represent opportunities for longer-term growth, as the underlying fundamentals – such as institutional adoption and geopolitical demand – remain robust.”

Mr Trump was once a crypto sceptic. In his first term, he derided Bitcoin and its peers as “not money”, “based on thin air” and something that “can facilitate unlawful behaviour, including drug trade and other illegal activity”. He also described it a scam after he left office in 2021. However, in the months before and after his election this time around, he said he was considering an executive order designating cryptocurrencies as a “national priority”.

"We're gonna do something great with crypto because we don't want China or anybody else – not just China but others are embracing it – and we want to be the head," Mr Trump told CNBC in December. In response to a question on his plans to build a crypto reserve similar to oil reserves, he said: "Yeah, I think so."

The number of new meme coins and their value have jumped since Mr Trump’s election victory in November. Industry executives are hoping the incoming administration will adopt a friendlier approach to crypto assets. Along with his sons, Mr Trump has also endorsed World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture set up by his longtime business partners and others.

Source:the national news

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin hit flash volatility on Jan. 10 at the start of the European trading session to hit an all-time high of $109,356 on Bitstamp.

BTC price has climbed from its lows below $100,000 on Jan. 19, rising as much as 9.6% to trade above $109,000 for the first time ever.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC trading at around $108,000, up 3.3% over 24 hours. Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_1

Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_1

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin triggers OI increase with a “god candle”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD reached its highest-ever levels after “teleporting” over $7,200 in 60 minutes. Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_2

Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_2

This comes just hours before US President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated and returns to office for his second term.

Over the weekend, this led to a wild ride in the crypto industry when Donald Trump launched his own memecoin Official TRUMP ($TRUMP), achieving a market cap of as high as $20 billion in only two days to rank among the top 15 on Jan. 19.

This sent shockwaves across the crypto market, which continued when his wife, Melania Trump, launched her own memecoin, causing TRUMP and other cryptocurrencies to drop.

BTC has, however, made an “impressive comeback” and is “once again flirting with all-time highs after a rollercoaster of a week that showcased the cryptocurrency’s trademark volatility,” said pseudonymous analyst Ferozwala.

The rally reversed what had previously been a drop of over $3 billion on open interest. Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed an increase of around $4.74 billion as BTC price rebounded. Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_3

Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_3

Exchange Bitcoin futures OI. Source: CoinGlass

The turn-around in BTC’s price action has also sparked massive liquidations across the crypto market, with more than $52 million short BTC positions being liquidated in less than one hour.

Bitcoin price could be headed above $130K

While many expected Trump’s inauguration to take Bitcoin to new all-time highs, trader and analyst Jelle is optimistic that the time may have come for a run-up to “mid $130Ks.”

“Bitcoin broke out from the descending triangle, retested it — and bounced straight to new all-time highs,” the analyst said in a Jan. 20 post on X.

Jelle was referring to a triangle that has been in formation since mid-November. The price broke above the triangle’s resistance line on Jan. 17, signaling the start of a bullish move upward.

“Target of this move is somewhere in the mid $ 130k.” Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_4

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Jelle

For fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin’s rise to new record highs after swiftly closing a “small CME gap” it had earlier opened marks a “good start” to an interesting week. Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_5

Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst_5

Source: Cointelegraph

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Make no mistake, it's all about the U.S. political scene this week and the nature of Donald Trump's 'day one' policy proclamations, as these will drive the wider market and impact the 'big dollar'.

"Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday will be the main event," says Galina Pozdnyakova, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Market participants will be looking for early announcements on tariffs, taxes and immigration. However, for foreign exchange traders, it is tariffs that will attract the most interest.

Global stocks rose and the Dollar weakened last week as markets consolidated ahead of concrete policy proposals that will mark a new era in the US. This allowed the Pound to Dollar exchange rate to arrest recent declines and consolidate around 1.22.

"The relief rally may not last, with attention turning to U.S. politics and President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday. Since the Presidential election, markets have been gripped by uncertainty over what Trump may do in office. Questions over how high tariffs will rise," says Philip Shaw, an analyst at Investec.

The rule of thumb is that any move towards a blanket tariff for all U.S. imports would boost the Dollar. This is because such a universal tariff is inflationary for the U.S., which will prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for much longer.

Also, this is a negative for the likes of the Eurozone, Canada and China, which rely heavily on the U.S. market to absorb their exports.

But should Trump adopt a more nuanced and transactional approach to tariffs, then relief can set in as this is tantamount to watering down his tariff plans.

Here, the Dollar would fall and the Euro and Pound would rise.

"From Monday we should start to gain some clarity," says Shaw.

Ahead of these events, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) retains a negative technical setup that advocates for further downside and any periods of strength are expected to be consolidative and short-lived.

Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Trump 'Day One' Calls Eyed_1

This means we could struggle to see GBP/USD extend much above 1.23.

The preferred targets are to the downside and last week's Monday low of 1.21 is the first line of support that can be prodded. Below here is the psychologically important 1.20, although there is no real technical support here. Instead, it is towards 1.1850 that some real relevant levels start to emerge.

Momentum indicators continue to point lower and advocate for further losses.

GBP has been hit by a run of poor data over recent weeks that speaks of an economy that has run out of momentum owing to the significant taxes placed on businesses by the government. In addition, an inflation-busting increase to the minimum wage is due to come into effect, as is further red tape on employing people.

All these points to the labour market as a key cost driver and headwind for businesses operating in the UK, and this is why this week's labour market report will be of particular interest: are businesses over-egging the negativity, or are they making operational changes?

The answer is likely to influence expectations for the amount of interest rate cuts the Bank of England will likely make this year.

The consensus expects the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reflecting survey evidence of growing job losses and a slowdown in hiring intentions. In particular, the PMI surveys have been warning of a deterioration in the labour market for a couple of months now.

Employment indicators are pointing firmly to a decline in payrolled employment in the coming months," says Sam Hill, Head of Market Insights at Lloyds Bank.

The Pound is likely to fall should unemployment rise faster than was expected and the opposite reaction is likely if the data proves stronger than expected.

"A payrolls rise would be a big surprise, suggesting business sentiment is overegging the jobs slowdown and likely pushing the market back to pricing fewer than two cuts," says Robert Wood, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Trump 'Day One' Calls Eyed_2

Above: Markets see more rate cuts ahead than was the case just one week ago, and there is scope for this trend to continue.

Of importance to traders will be the wage data that is released alongside the job figures. Here, The consensus expects wages to rise 5.5% in November, up from 5.2% in October. In isolation, the rule is that the pound will fall if wages undershoot expectations, but it will rise if the data beats.

The Bank of England is watching employment and wage dynamics, judging that high wages are inflationary and must be met with higher-for-longer interest rates.

However, rising unemployment will suggest to the Bank that wage pressures will fall notably in the coming months, which will allow them to cut interest rates further.

For the Pound, rising expectations for rate cuts will result in weakness, and is why we forecast further weakness in the coming days, judging that the process has further to run.

Money market pricing shows investors have raised bets for more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, which has contributed to the weaker Pound. However, the market is still only expecting two rate cuts, with a third being a possibility.

Most economists we follow suggest four cuts is the most likely outcome. This means the market can continue to 'price in' rate cuts from here, resulting in further weakness in Pound Sterling.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers

Source:politico europe

Gold Gains as Dollar Dips; Trump's Tariff Plans in Focus

Source: Theedgemarkets

Trump’s Second Trade War Will Put US–China Relations to the Test

Source：EASTASIAFORUM

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos

Flourish logoA Flourish map

Flourish logoA Flourish map

Flourish logoA Flourish map

Source:The national news

Bitcoin Prices Soar: Where Is The Cryptocurrency Headed As Trump Inauguration Drives Rally?

Bitcoin's 10% 'God Candle' Hints at $130K Next — Analyst

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin triggers OI increase with a “god candle”

Exchange Bitcoin futures OI. Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin price could be headed above $130K

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Jelle

Source: Cointelegraph

Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Trump 'Day One' Calls Eyed

Above: Markets see more rate cuts ahead than was the case just one week ago, and there is scope for this trend to continue.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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