Will Bitcoin Reach 100K? Experts Say BTC Price Prediction for 2024

Serial tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has published a Dogecoin-themed tweet, reacting to a post issued by Ideas Beyond Borders cofounder Melissa Chen about the original meme cryptocurrency.

DOGE retweet from Elon Musk pleases crypto community

Melissa Chen shared that she had found it extremely amusing to listen to serious journalists from the "Wall Street Journal" pronouncing "in their professional radio broadcasting voice" the word "DOGE" as part of a "serious news bit."

She admitted that part of her “cannot believe that it all started from a meme.” And then she referred to the recently formed D.O.G.E. agency, which stands for the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency: “A govt agency was memed into existence. Much wow.” Musk commented on this tweet, saying: “This is so awesome.”

The D.O.G.E. is spearheaded by big Dogecoin and meme fan Elon Musk and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

The Dogecoin community reacted with enthusiasm and support, posting positive tweets about DOGE and Musk: “Elon is the CEO of DOGE...DOGE is easy to pronounce.”

Elon Musk has been very supportive of Dogecoin over the past seven years. DOGE attracted his attention roughly when Bitcoin reached its first all-time high of $20,000 in 2017, and he began to frequently mention it (or Shiba Inu meme dog Kabosu) in his tweets.

This often resulted in a large impact on the Dogecoin price, pushing the asset upwards. Recently, Musk has stated that he does not intend to endorse any cryptocurrency unless it is done in the form of a joke or a meme.

DOGE, PEPE net best returns lately

A recently published report by on-chain data aggregator Santiment has revealed that over the past seven days, meme coins have brought traders the highest returns. In particular, this is true about such meme cryptocurrencies as Dogecoin, Pepe and Bonk.

DOGE has netted 96%, PEPE scooped up 97%, while BONK has seen 67% growth, leading the way for the rest of the meme coin market.

Curiously, a recent tweet published by the Litecoin X account says: “Due to current market conditions I now identify as a memecoin.”

On Thursday, LTC printed a massive green candle, soaring by almost 12% to hit $85, rising along with the rest of meme coins on the market. By now, however, the price has dropped back to $80, decreasing by 5.5%.

The Solana blockchain network has been making tremendous strides and is on its way to catching up with Ethereum. Based on hedge fund Syncracy Capital’s recent findings, the market share and the valuation of Solana have increased in a short period, going as far as an estimate placing the network at 33% of the worth of Ethereum.

This progress highlights how far Solana has come since being considered an undervalued player in 2023, thanks to more coherent architecture, higher transactions per second and simplicity of development. Solana has seen, and continues to see, an increasing volume of activity on-chain and growth in users and builders, after shaking off the difficulties caused by the collapse of FTX.

Advancement Of App Earnings And Other Metrics

Undoubtedly, the most noteworthy change this month is that Solana set a new record, outperforming Ethereum in terms of monthly application revenue. This is hardly surprising, given the rise in applications that are finance and commerce oriented.

Retailers have found Solana very appealing because it is easy to use on mobile devices, and has low transaction costs. Pumpdotfun and other apps like it are also showing off the full potential of Solana’s network. These apps currently make over $348 million a year.

With about 42 million SOL locked as of October 26, Solana’s TVL has reached a two-year high. By contrast, Ethereum’s TVL has stayed somewhat unchanged – particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) – which are both seeing a spike in usage on the platform. This rise in TVL reflects the growing confidence in Solana’s ecosystem.

The Future Of Solana And The Expanding Ecosystem

The appeal of Solana’s ecosystem is steadily on the rise, even vying with Ethereum in the few niches that remain uncontested. The network does not only focus on retail merchants, but it is also on the rise with several innovative DePIN protocols that aim to incentivize the users to maintain the real world infrastructure.

Solana’s forthcoming Firedancer upgrade is anticipated to further improve the network’s scalability. Syncracy Capital said this will maintain Solana’s valuation disparity with Ethereum at a low level, thereby establishing it as a formidable competitor.

SOL Price Forecast

It is projected that by the 14th of December, 2024, the price of Solana will have appreciated by 12%, hitting $242, data from CoinCodex shows. Considering that the Fear & Greed Index lies within its ‘Extreme Greed’ limits and consumer behavior is still positive, it would be more logical to purchase Solana at this point in time. More so, there is a likelihood that the price of Solana will also go up bearing in mind the efficiency of the network and the month’s growth of 30%.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView

As bitcoin surged to a new all-time high above $93,500 on Wednesday, some large-scale miners have taken the opportunity to realize profits, selling a portion of their holdings amid the rally, according to CryptoQuant data.

"Some large bitcoin miners have reduced their holdings as the price reached new all-time highs to take some profits. Although the amount of selling is still small, around 2,000 bitcoin in the last week, it is important to keep monitoring," CryptoQuant analysts told The Block.

Miners' Position Index (MPI) went from 0.89 around the time of the U.S. presidential election, since then it has increased to a 3.56, before pulling back to a current reading of 1.81, according to CryptoQuant data. The MPI is the ratio of total miner outflow to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow in U.S. dollars. Higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual to exchanges which indicates possible selling.

The bitcoin miners' position index (MPI) has increased since the U.S. presidential election. Image: CryptoQuant.

Despite recent selling by miners, CryptoQuant analysts maintain that bitcoin’s valuation metrics indicate it is not yet overvalued. "At current price levels, valuation metrics like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio don’t indicate that bitcoin is overvalued, suggesting it could soon target $100,000," CryptoQuant analysts said.

Analysts also highlight signs of sustained demand growth, with more investors entering the market. U.S. investor interest has picked up notably since the presidential election, as evidenced by the Coinbase bitcoin price premium. "U.S. investor demand is increasing as evidenced by the Coinbase bitcoin price premium turning positive again," CryptoQuant analysts added.

Liquidity in the crypto market has also been improving, driven in part by stablecoin inflows. The market cap of Tether (USDT) has been trending upwards, signaling fresh capital inflows that can support higher crypto prices. Since the election, a net $3.2 billion in USDT has flowed into exchanges, increasing market liquidity and contributing to a positive outlook for bitcoin’s price trajectory, CryptoQuant analysts said.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

It may be time to reassess the wisdom of the 60/40 portfolio, which was created back in the early 1950's and is often referred to as the "Modern Portfolio Theory". The theory was created by Harry Markowitz who tried to optimize a portfolio from a risk reward standpoint .

The traditional 60/40 portfolio is split into equities (60%) and fixed income (40%). It was designed to make the portfolio diversified and balanced, and managing both risk and growth simultaneously.

Equities would give you those much-needed returns in good times, but in bad times, bonds were there to capture the drawdowns and weather the storm. However, we may need to change our thinking as we head into a new era of inflation above 2% and high interest rates.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation year-over-year has not been at the Federal Reserve mandate of 2% since February 2021. In fact, as of Nov. 13, CPI inflation was 2.6%, a 0.2% increase from the month prior.

Interest rates globally have continued to decline in the last four decades, pushing bonds higher, especially during the post-2008 zero-rate policy environment. However, since 2021 interest rates have risen and bonds have suffered, experiencing their largest drawdowns. An example of this is the BlackRock iShares 20-plus Year Treasury Bond ETF T, which has witnessed a 54% drawdown from its peak in 2020 to the trough in 2023.

Beating inflation is the name of the game now, as currency debasement becomes a real concern for investors worldwide. This can be seen in the bond market, where the U.S. 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since July after the Fed's first rate cut back in September, now at 4.4% from 3.6%, crushing bonds in the process.

The 60/40 portfolio

Taking a look at data from Curvo, a data and financial provider, we can see what a 60/40 portfolio would look like.

For equities, Curvo chose iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD in the MSCI World Index and for the bonds, they take Xtrackers Global Sovereign UCITS ETF 1C EUR hedged in the FTSE World Government Bond - Developed Markets index. Since the beginning of 2014, an initial investment of euro 10,000 ($10,500) investment would have returned just above euro 20,000 ($21,000), essentially doubling in 10 years. Which seems like good returns.

However, what would happen if we add bitcoin {{BTC}} to the mix?

For the analysis, we have taken a 1%, 2%, 3%, 5%, and 10% allocation in bitcoin. A 1% allocation would see a 0.5% decrease in both equities and bonds to keep the split equal; this would be the same as the BTC allocation incrementally gets higher. As you can see the higher the bitcoin allocation the greater the return. A 10% bitcoin allocation would yield of over euro 70,000 ($73,000) or over a 3x return compared to the traditional equity allocation.

Just for fun, we adapted the original 60/40 portfolio to include 60% equities and a 40% bitcoin allocation to replace the bonds, the results show a whopping 50x return of nearly euro 500,000 ($526,000).

To include 2024 data, the analysis takes a year-to-date return of 101% for bitcoin. While, taking the average annual performance of the original 60/40 portfolio.

Due to bitcoin's risk-off monetary properties, such as not having a CEO or a central point of failure, bitcoin can act as a diversified entity in a 60/40 portfolio. The analysis didn't include tech stocks such as Tesla {{TSLA}} or NVIDIA {{NVDA}} for these reasons.

Also, since its inception bitcoin has provided greater returns than gold annually, hence we opted for bitcoin.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} is on a roll.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has just become the seventh-largest asset by market cap on the planet, overtaking oil giant Saudi Aramco. Its dominance over the crypto industry set a high of 61.38% and the price hit a record of over $93,000 on Wednesday.

A large part of the recent success is due to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance during the election campaign. As of today, the Republicans won the House, completing the trifecta and boding well for cryptocurrency prices due to favorable regulation.

Another part of BTC's success comes from the massive inflows into U.S. spot-listed exchange-traded funds (ETF). In the past six trading days, bitcoin ETFs have seen a whopping $4.7 billion of net inflows, including more than $510.1 million on Wednesday alone. This brings the total since their introduction in January to $28.2 billion, according to Farside data.

Since the launch, there have been questions raised about whether they were part of the basis trade or net long positions. But as the year has progressed, it seems investors are moving away from the basis trade, which is a net neutral strategy that is becoming a smaller trade over time.

Analyst Checkmate supports the argument that the majority of the demand is coming from the ETFs.

"The Bitcoin ETFs are by far the majority driving force of bitcoin demand right now, soaking up almost all of the selling by Long-Term Holders. CME open interest is not growing meaningfully, reinforcing that this is a spot-driven rally," they said in a post on X.

BlackRock's iShare Bitcoin Trust I continues to hit record after record in trading volume, touching $5 billion for the first time, according to Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg.

"I thought things were cooling off, but no, IBIT just saw $5b in volume today for first time ever. Only 3 ETFs and 8 stocks saw more action today. Up to $13b in 3 days this week. Its peers seeing heightened volume too but smaller scale. FBTC did $1b, biggest day since March", Balchunas said.

The Ethereum blockchain's ether {{ETH}} is also seeing renewed interest in U.S. spot-listed products, with a further $146.9 million inflow on Nov. 14, taking the total net inflow to $241.7 million, according to Farside data.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $92,000. While the price dropped slightly this morning to about $91,000, one key metric shows more bullish momentum on the horizon.

Bitcoin futures Open Interest soaring

According to CoinGlass data, aggregated Bitcoin contract holdings across all crypto exchanges hit a record high of $55.82 billion.

CME recorded the highest outstanding derivatives contract of approximately $18 billion, followed by Binance with $10.86 billion. The other three exchanges featured in the top five spots include Bybit, Bitget and OKX, with $7.52 billion, $5.53 billion and $4.43 billion, respectively.

Open Interest (OI) refers to the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts for an asset. Increasing OI signals more activity and represents new money coming into the market. Thus, the latest surge in Bitcoin’s open contracts highlights the growing institutional demand for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Intriguingly, U.Today reported earlier this week that spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have surpassed $90 billion in total assets.

Farside Investors data shows that spot ETFs attracted a total of $510 million worth of inflows on Nov. 13. Unsurprisingly, BlackRock's IBIT led the charge with a total of $230 million worth of inflows. Fidelity's FBTC came in a distant second place with $186 million.

Impact on Bitcoin’s price

The recent inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs is likely to show a positive continuation of the current Bitcoin rally above the $90,000 level. As of this writing, BTC has experienced a 3.65% increase in the last 24 hours to trade at $90,531.

Many crypto analysts believe it is not yet done with its ongoing rally. Some forecasted that the price could reach $100,000 in the coming months. In a more bullish forecast, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said Bitcoin might surge to $500,000. His prediction, however, hinges on the leading coin’s adoption as a national reserve asset in the U.S.