WTI Trades Around $76.00, Experiences Volatility in The Wake of Executive Orders by Trump

Commodity

Summary:

WTI Oil price experiences significant volatility as traders evaluate a series of executive orders issued by President Trump. Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, raising higher cost risks for the majority of Canada’s Oil exports. US President Donald Trump repealed actions taken by former President Joe Biden to restrict Oil drilling.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price ended a three-day losing streak, holding steady near $76.20 during European trading hours on Tuesday. Crude Oil markets experienced significant volatility as traders assessed a series of executive orders issued by US President Donald Trump shortly after his inauguration.

One of the key measures included a plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, disappointing investors who had hoped for a delay in implementation. Crude Oil prices gained momentum as the proposed duties on Canadian crude imports were seen as a potential driver for higher market prices.

Canada exports nearly all of its crude Oil to the United States (US), often at a discount to WTI. "US sanctions therefore raise the risk of higher costs for most of Canada's Oil exports," Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar noted in a report, according to Reuters.

Former President Donald Trump refrained from announcing specific tariffs on China, the world's largest Oil importer, leaving markets uncertain. Traders are keeping a close eye on developments in tariff policies, as Trump previously threatened China with tariffs of up to 60% in December.

At the same time, concerns about a potential surge in US oil production loomed large, fueled by Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda. On Monday, Trump unveiled an ambitious plan to expedite the permitting process for Oil, gas, and power projects, aiming to boost already record-high US energy production.

One of Trump’s executive orders on his first day in office repealed actions taken by former President Joe Biden to restrict Oil drilling. Trump reversed Biden’s ban on Oil drilling in the Arctic and along extensive areas of the US coastline.

According to the White House, Trump also nullified a 2023 memo that had prohibited Oil drilling across 16 million acres (6.5 million hectares) in the Arctic. These moves signaled a sharp policy shift and highlighted the administration's commitment to maximizing domestic energy output.

Source: FXSTREET

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks were set to nudge lower at the open on Tuesday as investors mulled the latest UK jobs data.

The FTSE 100 was called to open down around five points.

Figures released earlier by the Office for National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate and wages grew in the three months to November.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. Meanwhile, average earnings including bonuses grew 5.6% on an annual basis, up from 5.2% and in line with consensus forecasts.

Pay excluding bonuses was also up 5.6% from 5.2%, in line with expectations.

ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: "Pay growth picked up for a second consecutive period, again driven by strong increases in the private sector. Real pay growth, which excludes the effects of inflation, increased slightly.

"The number of employees on payroll, drawn from tax data, fell in the three months to November.

"Alongside this, the number of vacancies fell again, for the 30th consecutive period, although the total number remains slightly above its pre-pandemic level."

In corporate news, Premier Foods reported a 3.1% increase in group sales in a third quarter update, with branded sales rising by 4.6%, driven by volume-led growth and market share gains.

It said grocery branded sales grew by 3.5%, while ‘sweet treats’ saw an 8.9% increase and international sales surged by 29%, supported by strong performance in new categories such as Ambrosia porridge pots.

The company said it now expected full-year trading profit to be at the upper end of its previous guidance.

Tritax Big Box said it has acquired a 74-acre site near Heathrow within the Slough Availability Zone, for the development of a major data centre, targeting an initial 107 MW facility by 2027 with the potential to expand to 147 MW.

The company said it had entered into a joint venture with a renewable energy provider to accelerate power delivery, enabling faster project execution and unlocking a broader 1 GW pipeline of future data centre opportunities across the UK.

It said the project was expected to yield a 9.3% return on cost, with significant development profits anticipated, leveraging the site's prime location and strong market demand for data centre capacity.

Source: Sharecast

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Justin

Economic

Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the overnight bounce from the $2,689 area and gains some follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump's tariff remarks boost demand for traditional safe-haven assets and lift the commodity to its highest level since November 6, around the $2,729 area. Apart from this, declining US Treasury bond yields, led by bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year, turns out to be another factor underpinning the lower-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would reignite inflationary pressures and force the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance help the US Dollar (USD) to stage a modest bounce from a two-week low touched on Monday. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, contributes to keeping a lid on any further appreciation for the Gold price. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD remains to the upside.

Gold price retains positive bias amid trade war fears, Fed rate cut bets

US President Donald Trump said this Tuesday that he intends 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the target date for tariffs would be as soon as early February. Trump further threatened that we could put tariffs on China if it doesn't approve a TikTok deal, underpinning demand for the safe-haven Gold price.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) released last week pointed to signs of abating inflation. This suggests that the Fed may not exclude the possibility of rate cuts by the end of this year and drags the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to a nearly three-week low.

The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction following the overnight slump to a two-week low amid expectations that Trump's protectionist policies could boost inflation and force the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish stance. This, in turn, might cap any further gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, along with hopes that Trump might relax curbs on Russia in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine war, remains supportive of the positive risk tone. This might further hold back bulls from placing fresh bets around the XAU/USD in the absence of any relevant US economic data.

The market focus will remain glued to the crucial Bank of Japan policy meeting on January 23-24 on Friday. Apart from this, the release of the flash PMI prints, which will be looked upon for fresh insight into the global economic health, should infuse volatility around the commodity during the latter half of the week.

Gold price acceptance above $2,720 hurdle favors bullish traders

Gold Price Sticks to Intraday Gains Above $2,725, Over Two-Month Top Amid Trade War Fears_1

From a technical perspective, the Gold price now seems to have found acceptance above the $2,720 supply zone. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still away from being in the overbought territory. This, in turn, favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the next relevant hurdle near the $2,735 horizontal zone, en route to the $2,746-2,748 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum could extend further towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $2,790 area touched in October 2024.

On the flip side, any corrective pullback now seems to find decent support near the $2,700 mark. A subsequent slide below the overnight swing low, around the $2,689 region, could prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price further towards the $2,662-2,660 region. The latter should act as a pivotal point, below which the XAU/USD could fall to the $2,635 zone en route to the $2,622-2,618 confluence – comprising a short-term ascending trend-line extending from the November low and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Source：FXSTREET

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Owen Li

Economic

Among his key priorities are large-scale deportation operations and reducing environmental regulations, signaling potential shifts in labor markets and energy industries. Trump also aims to impose higher tariffs on imports early in his presidency, a move likely to increase costs for U.S. consumers while provoking retaliatory measures from trading partners. While his policies have sparked widespread concern over trade disruptions, Trump has pledged to streamline government operations—a potential boon for economic efficiency. Furthermore, his vow to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, though uncertain, could stabilize geopolitical tensions and benefit global markets.

Last week on the economic front, U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December came in below expectations, suggesting inflationary pressures may be easing. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that this trend could prompt multiple interest rate cuts this year if it continues, a development that may stimulate borrowing and investment. However, U.S. retail sales slightly missed expectations, hinting at weaker consumer demand.

Currencies

The strong rise in the USD since October has paused after last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Earlier, the dollar had surged as U.S. long-term bond yields rose, with markets expecting higher inflation under Trump’s presidency. However, if Trump’s policies are seen as less inflationary than expected, the USD could weaken further.

Some analysts believe the BOJ may raise official interest rates at this week’s meeting, which could trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY and add more pressure on the dollar. At the same time, AUD/USD and GBP/USD, which have fallen sharply in recent weeks, may attract buyers, offering potential opportunities for traders.

USD Index Daily Chart

Stock Markets

U.S. stock markets have regained strength following last week’s weaker-than-expected inflation data and the official start of Trump’s presidency. The Dow and S&P 500, which had retraced much of their initial post-election rally in the past two months due to higher-than-expected U.S. interest rates, are now showing signs of recovery.

Among the sectors expected to benefit most from Trump’s policies is the oil industry, as the new administration aims to reduce regulations limiting oil extraction. Chevron, for instance, has seen significant gains this year, as highlighted in the chart below, reflecting optimism about the sector’s growth prospects.

Chevron Daily Chart

In the electric vehicle space, Tesla’s boom has slowed, but its upward trend remains intact, due to the close relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. However, this alliance could end at any time, making it essential for bullish traders to stay cautious, prepare for potential losses, and consider shifting bearish if necessary.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 has repeatedly failed to break through the 40,000 resistance level since Trump’s election, despite continued yen weakness. Rising living costs in Japan, outpacing wage growth, remain a key challenge for the Japanese economy, contributing to the index’s struggles.

Bond Market

The closely watched U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 1% since September, reaching 4.65%, and is approaching the key resistance level of 5% as markets scale back expectations for interest rate cuts. However, last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data caused yields to decline, providing a boost to U.S. stock markets while pushing the USD lower. The market will also be closely watching policy announcements from Trump in the coming weeks to see if they are as inflationary as expected.

In Japan, bond yields are also trending higher as the Bank of Japan signals a possible increase in official interest rates. The 10-year Japanese bond yield has doubled over the past year to 1.19%, reflecting a notable shift in Japan’s traditionally low-rate environment.

Commodities

Crude oil prices have risen this year, driven by U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, which have significantly reduced global supply. Trump’s presidency is expected to further impact the oil market, as he supports expanded oil exploration in the U.S. While this could boost domestic production, Trump has also indicated he will seek ways to push oil prices significantly lower during his term. Additionally, his stated desire to end the Russia-Ukraine war, if successful, could further push oil prices down by reducing geopolitical risk premiums.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Gold has also moved higher in 2025, despite the strong USD and higher interest rates. Investors view gold as a safe-haven asset to hedge against potential instability in the global economy should Trump’s policies create disruptions. If the USD continues to weaken, gold prices may see further upside, potentially returning to the highs set in October 2024.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been trading sideways around the $100,000 mark over the past two months, as the market awaited the start of Trump’s presidency. With Trump now sworn in as president, Bitcoin has begun pushing higher once again. Traders are increasingly optimistic, aiming to drive prices to new highs as Trump has recently reiterated his support for cryptocurrencies. Trump Trades Back in Focus as New Presidency Begins_4

Trump Trades Back in Focus as New Presidency Begins_4

Upcoming Events to Watch This Week

This week is relatively quiet on the economic front, with the key data releases scheduled for Friday, including U.S. PMI and existing home sales. These reports may provide insight into the health of the U.S. economy but are unlikely to cause significant market volatility. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise official interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, a move that is likely to create substantial volatility in the yen and Nikkei as markets react to this shift in monetary policy.

The market’s primary focus will be on Trump’s initial actions as president. While his expected crackdown on immigration may have limited market impact, any remarks he makes about tariffs could significantly influence sentiment. If his comments hint at a potential trade war, this could raise concerns about global trade and negatively affect market stability. Traders will be closely monitoring his statements for signs of direction on these critical issues.

This Week’s Trump Trades

Here are trade ideas based on this week’s market trends:

USD/JPY: Focus on selling opportunities as the pair appears vulnerable to further downside. Target a break of the key support level at 155.00, which could open the door to additional declines. Monitor Bank of Japan developments closely, as any rate changes could increase volatility.

Bitcoin: The uptrend is gaining momentum, with bullish sentiment returning after Trump’s inauguration. Look for a potential test of $110,000 and higher as traders push for new highs. Buying near key support levels could provide favorable entry points for those with a bullish outlook.

Crude Oil: The recent ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, coupled with Trump’s presidency, is reducing tensions in the Middle East. This geopolitical easing, along with expectations of increased U.S. production, could push crude oil prices lower. Traders should consider selling rallies, targeting lower levels in the short term.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 could push higher this week, buoyed by the start of Trump’s presidency as he enacts his “America First” agenda. Look to buy dips on the S&P 500, as optimism around Trump’s policies may provide continued support for the index.

Source:action forex

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Forex

AUD/USD Turns South to Test 0.6200 as Trump Tariff Talks Spark Risk Aversion_1

AUD/USD remains under pressure, with key support at 0.6130. A break below this level could open the door for a drop toward the psychologically significant 0.6000 mark. On the upside, resistance levels are seen at 0.6301, followed by 0.6401 and 0.6549. Momentum signals are mixed—while the RSI approached the 50 yardstick, the ADX lost some impetus and reached 30, indicating that the current trend appears to be running out of steam.

Fundamental Overview

The US Dollar (USD) experienced a rollercoaster ride on Monday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) dipping below the 108.00 support to flirt with yearly lows once again in the broad context of dominant risk-on sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed two daily pullbacks in a row, reclaiming the 0.6200 hurdle and well above to hit fresh multi-day peaks.

What’s Driving the Australian Dollar’s Rebound?

While the Australian Dollar has struggled against a resilient US Dollar, it has recently clawed back some ground, aided by Monday’s pronounced retreat in the Greenback. The USD’s extended rally, which began in October amid the so-called "Trump trade," had placed significant pressure on the Aussie and the rest of the risk-linked universe.

Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is weighing a potential rate cut in February to counter slower economic growth and softening inflation. Market expectations for a cut currently sit at around 60%.

Adding to the AUD's challenges are faltering domestic economic momentum, weaker confidence indicators, and concerns about China’s slowing economy—a critical driver of Australian exports. Subdued commodity prices have further dampened the currency’s outlook.

On the brighter side, December’s Australian jobs report offered some positive news last week. Employment surged by 56.3K jobs, well above expectations, although the Unemployment Rate edged up slightly to 4.0% (from 3.9%). Meanwhile, the Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Inflation Expectations eased to 4.0% in January, down from 4.2%, signalling a potential cooling in inflationary pressures.

RBA’s Cautious Stance

At its December meeting, the RBA held rates steady at 4.35% but indicated that future cuts remain on the table as inflation eases. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that upcoming policy decisions will be closely tied to economic data.

Challenges and Opportunities for AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair faces notable headwinds from the US Dollar’s strength, Australia’s mixed economic fundamentals, and concerns over China’s sluggish recovery. However, the Aussie could find support if the Federal Reserve signals further rate cuts, which would likely weaken the USD.

What to Watch This Week

A light weekly calendar in Oz this week will only include the Westpac Leading Index (January 22).

Source：FXSTREET

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alex

Economic

US President Donald Trump rescinded the Biden administration’s sweeping executive order regulating artificial intelligence (AI), marking a significant shift in federal oversight of the rapidly advancing technology.

The move, announced on Monday, immediately halts the implementation of key safety and transparency requirements for AI developers. Biden’s mandate, which was signed in 2023, had required leading AI companies to share safety test results and other critical information for powerful AI systems with the federal government. It also prompted the creation of the US AI Safety Institute, housed under the Commerce Department, to create voluntary guidelines and best practices for the technology’s use.

Trump didn’t immediately say exactly what would replace the order, but the administration is likely to take a more hands-off approach. Before returning to the White House, Trump had criticised Biden’s AI regulations as heavy-handed and hindering tech innovation. Trump also appointed David Sacks, a venture capitalist and longtime critic of tech regulation, as his crypto-AI czar.

With the repeal, Trump has thrown the future of US AI policy into question at a time when other countries are jockeying to set rules of the road for the disruptive technology. Last year, the European Union passed the AI Act, perhaps the most comprehensive guardrails for AI to date. The rules ban facial recognition and require strict oversight for “high-risk” AI used in sectors like healthcare and law enforcement, among other efforts.

The Trump administration is likely to carry on some elements of Biden’s policy, such as promoting US competitiveness on AI against China. Trump has framed the global race for AI leadership as a national security priority. He has also promised to boost domestic energy production to meet AI demands and secure foreign investments in the technology and related infrastructure projects.

During his first term, Trump issued two executive orders on AI that established a set of principles for safe and trustworthy government use of the technology and boosted funding for research and development.

Apart from Biden’s executive order, Washington has struggled to advance federal legislation on AI, spurring some states to develop their own frameworks.

In California, where many top AI companies are based, legislators have passed several bills related to generative AI, including a crackdown on AI deepfakes and more disclosures to bolster transparency for training data. Another controversial bill in the state that would’ve imposed a suite of safety requirements for AI companies was ultimately vetoed after fierce industry opposition.

Colorado and Illinois, meanwhile, have passed laws aimed at protecting people from algorithmic discrimination in hiring. New York will also require businesses to report AI-related job losses under a new order from the governor.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

USD/CHF holds ground after experiencing volatility, trading around 0.9070 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar saw volatility as US President Donald Trump's inauguration day made waves. However, the USD faced downward pressure as Trump appeared to strengthen his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the TikTok deal and a potentially softer approach to tariffs contributing to the shift.

The US Dollar (USD) regained ground following news that President Donald Trump intends to direct federal agencies to review tariff policies and evaluate the United States' trade relationships with Canada, Mexico, and China.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, trades around 108.30 after trimming recent gains. The US Dollar receives downward pressure as the US Treasury yields on 2-year and 10-year bonds remain subdued at 4.23% and 4.54%, respectively, at the time of writing.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain borrowing rates within the current range of 4.25%-4.50% over the next three policy meetings. However, investors speculate that policies under Trump’s administration could trigger inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Fed to only one additional rate cut.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly weak as investors anticipate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could continue to reduce interest rates. Swiss interest rates have already been lowered to 0.5% due to concerns over inflation remaining below the central bank’s target.

The traditionally safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) may face challenges as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease. Traders are closely watching developments related to a long-delayed ceasefire agreement and a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.

Source: FXSTREET

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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WTI Trades Around $76.00, Experiences Volatility in The Wake of Executive Orders by Trump

Source: FXSTREET

London Pre-Open: Stocks to Nudge Down as Investors Mull Jobs Data

Source: Sharecast

Gold Price Sticks to Intraday Gains Above $2,725, Over Two-Month Top Amid Trade War Fears

Gold price retains positive bias amid trade war fears, Fed rate cut bets

Gold price acceptance above $2,720 hurdle favors bullish traders

Source：FXSTREET

Trump Trades Back in Focus as New Presidency Begins

Currencies

USD Index Daily Chart

Stock Markets

Chevron Daily Chart

Bond Market

Commodities

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Bitcoin

Upcoming Events to Watch This Week

This Week’s Trump Trades

Source:action forex

AUD/USD Turns South to Test 0.6200 as Trump Tariff Talks Spark Risk Aversion

Fundamental Overview

What’s Driving the Australian Dollar’s Rebound?

RBA’s Cautious Stance

Challenges and Opportunities for AUD/USD

What to Watch This Week

Source：FXSTREET

Biden’s Sweeping Ai Order Scrapped by Trump in Regulatory Reset

Source: Theedgemarkets

USD/CHF Remains Steady Above 0.9050 Amid Market Volatility on Trump's Inauguration

Source: FXSTREET

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