February 19th Financial News

Daily News

Summary:

The U.S. hints at discussing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, suggesting potential historic economic cooperation post-Ukraine conflict. Canada's latest inflation data is expected to support further rate cuts...

[Quick Facts]

UK Prime Minister reiterates sending troops to Ukraine, stresses need for U.S. support.

U.S. hints at discussing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, suggesting potential historic economic cooperation post-Ukraine conflict.

Daly: Policy should stay restrictive until there's more inflation progress.

UK wage growth holds at lowest level since 2021.

U.S. Treasury Department reduces bill auction sizes for the second consecutive week to maintain borrowing capacity.

Builder confidence falls to a 5-month low on tariff and housing cost concerns.

ECB's Cipollone says rate cuts should take QT into account.

Canada's latest inflation data supports further rate cuts.

[News Details]

UK Prime Minister reiterates sending troops to Ukraine, stresses need for U.S. support

After an emergency summit in Paris, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer increased defense spending and discussed the potential deployment of European forces, according to the Guardian. Starmer reiterated his willingness to send British troops as part of a multinational force but insisted that U.S. involvement was essential to ensure its effectiveness.

U.S. hints at discussing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, suggesting potential historic economic cooperation post-Ukraine conflict

The U.S. and Russia have hinted at discussing the lifting of sanctions on Russia as part of negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. This move could become another point of tension with European allies. After high-level talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told reporters that both countries expressed "strong interest in removing artificial barriers to developing mutually beneficial economic cooperation." He added that there is a shared willingness to find concrete solutions to economic issues.

Daly: Policy should stay restrictive until there's more inflation progress

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said policy should stay restrictive until there's more inflation progress. She expects inflation to continue to decline over time. "Policy needs to remain restrictive until ... I see that we are really continuing to make progress on inflation." she told a community banking conference hosted by the American Bankers Association in Phoenix, Arizona.

UK wage growth holds at lowest level since 2021

A survey released on Wednesday showed that UK employers' wage increases remained stable in the three months to January, at the lowest level since 2021, indicating a shift toward more restrained pay raises as businesses grapple with economic pressures.

According to Brightmine, the median pay award stayed at 3.3% for the second rolling quarter, and the median pay award for the three months to the end of December 2024 was revised from 3.3% to 3%. It was the lowest median pay award since December 2021. In addition, the turnover rate in 2024 remained the same as the previous year. However, more than one-third of organizations are concerned about a high turnover rate.

Although the labor turnover rate has stabilized, wage stagnation and ongoing concerns about workloads and career development may lead to an increase in the number of resignations in the second half of 2025. Employers may need to strike a balance between cost control and competitive pay and other retention measures to avoid unnecessary staff losses.

U.S. Treasury Department reduces bill auction sizes for second the consecutive week to maintain borrowing capacity

On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a reduction in the size of its benchmark Treasury bill auctions for the second consecutive week. This move aims to maintain borrowing capacity under the statutory debt limit. On Thursday, the Treasury plans to issue $85 billion in four-week Treasury bills, a decrease of $5 billion from the previous issuance of the same maturity. Additionally, the Treasury will issue $80 billion in eight-week Treasury bills, also reduced by $5 billion. The regular Wednesday auction for 17-week Treasury bills has been lowered to $60 billion, a reduction of $2 billion.

Builder confidence falls to a 5-month low on tariff and hosing cost concerns

Builder sentiment fell sharply in February to the lowest level before Donald Trump took office over concerns on tariffs, due to elevated mortgage rates and high housing costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in February, down five points from January and the lowest level in five months, far lower than economists' expectation, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

ECB's Cipollone says rate cuts should take QT into account

ECB governor Cipollone said interest-rate decisions by the European Central Bank shouldn't overlook the tightening effect on monetary policy from unwinding past asset purchases. In comments at an event organized by MNI, the Italian official said that while policy rates remain the primary instrument to adjust the ECB’s stance, the role of quantitative tightening in influencing financial and financing conditions – through the yield curve or bank lending — should also be considered.

Canada's latest inflation data supports further rate cuts

Canada's CPI, released on Tuesday, increased by 1.9% year-on-year (previous reading 1.8%) and 0.1% month-on-month (previous reading -0.4%); core CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year (previous reading 2.0%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous reading -0.3%).

This inflation report seems to support the market's expectation of two more interest rate cuts in 2025, as policymakers will take a more cautious approach than last year when seeking the neutral interest rate. There is some stickiness in the core CPI indicators, which have been fluctuating in the range of 2.5%-3.0% for some time. This will prompt policymakers to exercise caution at the March meeting. However, on a month-on-month basis, underlying pressures are losing broad momentum, and prices have been declining since August last year. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will remain on hold in March and then cut rates in April and July.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 09:30 BOJ Governor Soh Takada gives a speech

UTC+8 10:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian holds a monetary policy press conference

UTC+8 15:00 UK January CPI

UTC+8 21:30 US January Housing Starts annualized rate

UTC+8 03:00 Fed's January monetary policy meeting minute

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Owen Li

Commodity

Economic

Gold shipments from Singapore to the US climbed to the highest level in almost three years in January, a further sign of the ructions in bullion trading after pricing disparities opened up in key markets.

Volumes of the precious metal shipped from the Southeast Asian city-state to the US rose to about 11 tonnes last month, up 27% from December, and the largest amount since March 2022, according to data from state agency Enterprise Singapore. Typically, most flows from Singapore go to destinations in Asia.

The global gold market has been in upheaval in recent weeks, at a time when prices were already near record highs. Concerns that possible tariffs from US President Donald Trump’s administration could hit flows of precious metals helped to lift bullion futures in New York to an unusually wide premium over international benchmarks in London. That gap then pulled imports into the US.

“Metal is being shipped there from all locations where there are refineries,” said Nikos Kavalis, managing director at Metals Focus Ltd.

Singapore is home to one of Metalor Technology SA’s gold refineries, a facility certified by the London Bullion Market Association. A Singapore-based general manager from Metalor declined to comment.

Under normal conditions, most gold-bar exports from Singapore go to destinations across Asia, depending on where demand is good, according to Kavalis. When regional consumption isn’t enough, these bars go to London, the main terminal market for gold.

Futures traded at about US$2,925 (RM12,996) an ounce on the Comex on Tuesday, compared with spot metal at about US$2,912 an ounce in London, a difference of around US$13. In January, the premium was wider, topping US$50 toward the end of the month.

The last time there was a spike in gold flows from Singapore to the US came during the pandemic, when border and trade restrictions triggered concern about the ability to settle futures contracts. In July 2020, shipments from the city-state rose to about 26 tonnes.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Justin

Economic

NZD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day after the RBNZ’s expected 50 bps rate cut.

Concerns about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and trade war fears further weigh on the Kiwi.

Subdued USD price action could lend support to the pair amid a generally positive risk tone.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers for the second straight day and drops to a three-day low, around the 0.5680-0.5675 area after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision this Wednesday.

As was widely expected, the RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75% following the conclusion of the February policy meeting. Moreover, the accompanying monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that the committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025. This, in turn, exerts some downward pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and drags the NZD/USD pair away from a nearly two-month top touched earlier this week.

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates further this year. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets caps the safe-haven Greenback and could offer some support to the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, worries about US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets around the NZD/USD pair.

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

Source: FXSTREET

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Cohen

Economic

Forex

AUD/NZD appreciated as the RBNZ lowered its Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday.

Traders will closely monitor RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference for clues on the central bank’s future policy direction.

Australia's Wage Price Index increased by 0.7% QoQ in Q4 2024, missing the expected 0.8% rise.

AUD/NZD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.1170 during Asian hours. The upside is driven by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75%, following the conclusion of the February policy meeting on Wednesday. The decision aligned with the market expectations.

Traders will closely watch RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference for insights into the central bank’s future policy stance. Any dovish signals could add to selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), providing support for the AUD/NZD cross.

However, the upside of the AUD/NZD cross could be restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday. The central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% on Tuesday, as widely expected, marking the first rate cut in four years.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock addressed the media after the policy meeting, stating that it’s clear high interest rates have had an impact. However, Bullock emphasized that it's too early to declare victory over inflation. She also noted the unexpectedly strong jobs market and clarified that the market's expectation of further rate cuts is not guaranteed.

Australia's Wage Price Index rose by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, below the expected 0.8% increase and the previous quarter's 0.9% rise. On an annual basis, the index grew by 3.2%, slowing from a revised 3.6% in the prior quarter and matching forecasts. This marked the slowest wage growth since Q3 2022.

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Source: FXSTREET

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Alex

Economic

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Wednesday, “the BoJ must gradually shift policy, even after January's rate hike, to avoid upside price risks from materialising.“

Additional quotes

Japan's real interest rates remain deeply negative, no change to accommodative monetary environment.

Must adjust degree of monetary support further if economy moves in line with BoJ’s forecasts.

BoJ also needs to take cautious approach in shifting policy due to uncertainty over the US economic outlook, difficulty of gauging neutral rate level.

Indicating set neutral rate level could be taken by markets as forward guidance, may cause challenges in terms of policy flexibility..

Companies maintaining bullish investment stance.

Consumption rising moderately as a trend.

Expect consumption to continue increasing moderately.

Long-term inflation expectations heightening steadily.

Expect firms to deliver solid pay hikes in this year's wage talks.

Expect inflation to approach BoJ’s target driven by domestic factors.

Must be mindful of risk inflation may accelerate more than expected due to weak Yen, bumper pay hikes.

Market reaction

As of writing, USD/JPY is flriting with intraday lows near 151.80 on these above comments, down 0.12% on the day.

Source: FXSTREET

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Glendon

Economic

Interest rates are the heartbeat of the financial world, influencing everything from mortgage payments to corporate profits. For dividend stock investors, these rates wield a particularly powerful influence, capable of shaking up portfolios in ways that might not be immediately obvious. Whether you’re a retiree relying on steady dividend income or a growth-focused investor building a long-term position, understanding how interest rates affect dividend-paying stocks is crucial to navigating today’s markets. Let’s explore the mechanics, risks, and opportunities that arise when interest rates shift.

The Basics: Interest Rates and Stock Valuation

At their core, interest rates set by central banks—like the Federal Reserve in the U.S.—determine the cost of borrowing money and the return on risk-free investments like government bonds. When rates rise, bonds become more attractive, offering higher yields with little risk. This shift often pulls money away from stocks, including dividend payers, as investors chase safer returns. Conversely, when rates fall, stocks—particularly those with reliable dividends—tend to shine as investors seek income in a low-yield environment.

Dividend stocks are especially sensitive to this dynamic because their value is tied to both their payout (the dividend yield) and their stock price. The yield is simply the annual dividend divided by the stock price. When interest rates climb, stock prices often drop as investors reallocate funds, pushing yields higher. On the flip side, falling rates can boost stock prices, lowering yields but increasing capital gains potential. It’s a tug-of-war between income and growth that every dividend investor must navigate.

Why Dividend Stocks Feel the Heat

Not all stocks react to interest rates the same way. Dividend stocks, particularly those from mature, stable companies in sectors like utilities, real estate (REITs), or consumer staples, often behave more like bonds. These “bond proxies” offer consistent payouts, making them a go-to for income-focused investors. However, when interest rates rise, these stocks face stiff competition from actual bonds. Why settle for a 3% dividend yield from a utility stock when a 10-year Treasury note offers 4% with no risk of a price drop?

High-yield dividend stocks are especially vulnerable. Companies paying out hefty dividends—think 5% or more—may see their stock prices hammered as rates rise, especially if investors suspect the payout isn’t sustainable. Firms with high debt loads, common in sectors like energy or telecom, face a double whammy: rising rates increase borrowing costs, squeezing profits and potentially forcing dividend cuts.

The Flip Side: Opportunities in Rate Changes

It’s not all doom and gloom. Falling interest rates can supercharge dividend stocks, driving up prices as investors pile in for yield. During periods of low rates—like much of the post-2008 era—dividend aristocrats (companies with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases) often outperform the broader market. These blue-chip stocks, think Coca-Cola or Johnson & Johnson, become havens for capital seeking both safety and income.

Even in a rising-rate environment, not all dividend stocks suffer equally. Sectors like financials—banks, insurers, and asset managers—can thrive as higher rates boost their interest income. A bank’s net interest margin (the difference between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits) widens, potentially funding richer dividends down the road.

The Investor’s Playbook

So, how should you respond as an investor? First, assess your portfolio’s exposure. If it’s heavy on high-yield, debt-laden firms, a rate hike could spell trouble. Diversifying into stocks with strong balance sheets and a history of dividend growth can provide a buffer. Second, keep an eye on the yield curve. A steepening curve (where long-term rates rise faster than short-term ones) often signals economic growth, which can lift dividend-paying cyclicals like industrials.

Finally, don’t panic. Dividend stocks aren’t just about yield—they’re about total return. A temporary dip in price might sting, but a company with a solid track record will likely keep paying (and growing) its dividend, rewarding patient investors over time.

Conclusion

Interest rates are a powerful force, capable of rattling even the steadiest dividend stocks. Rising rates can pressure prices and challenge high-yield darlings, while falling rates can ignite a rally in income-focused sectors. By understanding these dynamics, you can position your portfolio to weather the shakes—and maybe even capitalize on them. After all, in the dance between rates and stocks, it’s the prepared investor who leads.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Alex

Commodity

0842 GMT - Gold futures rise on safe-haven demand. Futures are up 0.7% at $2,922.10 a troy ounce. The precious metal has solidified its role as the foremost safe-haven asset and an attractive hedge against inflation, Tradu's Nikos Tzabouras says in a note. Gold--which has risen nearly 10% in the year-to-date alone--has benefited from President Trump's disruptive modus operandi, aggressive rhetoric and potential tariffs, which could hit global trade and intricate supply chains, Tzabouras says. Gold is set to naturally benefit from risk-off flows and central bank buying in the uncertain Trump 2.0 era, he writes. That said, while gold has benefited from the uncertainty so far the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to monetary policy easing if inflation rebounds, which could boost the dollar and suppress precious metal demand, he adds.

0840 GMT - A less stringent approach to borrowing could allow Europe to invest more in defense while ironing out national-level discrepancies, Capital Economics' Jack Allen-Reynolds says in a note. The continent is gearing up to increase defense spending in response to shifting geopolitics, especially regarding Russia and the U.S. While national governments could borrow more to fund the extra spending, many--including France and Italy--already suffer from overstretched budgets, and others may not play ball, Allen-Reynolds says. Borrowing at the EU level would prove cheaper and more cost-effective, he says. While there is often resistance to extra borrowing, "the bloc's response to Covid-19 in 2020 shows that attitudes can change very quickly in times of crisis."

0833 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise as investors lower their expectations of Bank of England interest-rate cuts following stronger-than-expected labor-market data. "The jobs market holds up better than expected, generating strong wage growth that will keep the [BOE] monetary policy committee cautious," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. Average wage growth excluding bonuses in the three months to December accelerated to 5.9% from 5.5% previously. Unemployment held steady at 4.4%, below the consensus forecast of 4.5% by economists in a WSJ poll. The 10-year gilt yield climbs 4 basis points to 4.563% , Tradeweb data show.

0832 GMT - The impact of the forthcoming rise in U.K. employer national-insurance contributions and the national living wage could prompt the Bank of England to speed up interest-rate cuts in the second half of the year, Abrdn's Luke Bartholomew says in a note. For now, rate cuts will remain gradual after data Tuesday showed average pay growth picked up to 5.9% at the end of 2024, he says. However, the big test will be how the labor market reacts to the changes announced in the government'sautumn budget. There are "clear signs" that hiring intentions have cooled in anticipation, he says. "If growth remains very sluggish there is a clear path to more rapid rate cutting in the second half of the year."

0817 GMT - The U.K. jobs market is due some loosening, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja tells investors in a note. Unemployment was stable at 4.4% at the end of last year and average pay growth picked up pace to 5.9%, figures show Tuesday, pointing to a robust labor market despite signs of weakness in separate surveys. But an increase in employer taxes due to come into effect this spring will come at a price, and pay growth will also likely slow following a spike from a rise in minimum wages also due this spring, Raja says. "The labor market is creaking but not cracking," he says. "Some slack is emerging, but we aren't seeing a worrying spiral in unemployment - just yet."

0815 GMT - The dollar rises as its recent downward correction has likely run its course in the absence of tangible negative drivers, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. Markets will remain focused on any developments on U.S.-Russia talks over the Ukraine war, he says. Barring any major breakthrough, the "optimistic push and relative upbeat risk sentiment may stall or fade in the next couple of days and the dollar can continue to recover some ground." The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 106.915 after falling to a two-month low of 106.566 on Friday.

0803 GMT - U.K. businesses need a confidence boost, says Alex Hall-Chen at lobby group the Institute of Directors after data showed vacancies fell again in the three months to January. U.K. wage growth accelerated at the end of last year and unemployment remained stable, figures show Tuesday, but the drop in vacancies shows firms have little optimism to take on new employees, Hall-Chen says."The cumulative impact of recent employment reforms, coupled with upcoming increases to employer National Insurance Contributions and the National Living Wage, is significantly weakening the business case for hiring," he tells clients in a note, calling on business-friendly action from the government in London.

0736 GMT - March is likely to be a key test for China's economy and markets, Citi analysts write in a note. The rally in Chinese equities so far is a tech-led, sentiment-driven dynamism without significant changes in economic fundamentals, they add. The National People's Congress is scheduled to kick off on March 5 and is expected deliver the details of policy thinking, they say, adding that they the meeting is seen to be a mark-to-market one. The brokerage maintains its realistic expectations for a fiscal expansion of CNY2.5 trillion with trade-in subsidies doubling to CNY300 billion this year. "We tend to look for a solid start, with potential upside coming from export front-loading," the analysts write. A broad-based macro economy recovery marked with reflation may not be at the corner yet, they add.

0727 GMT - Sterling rises to a two-week high against the euro and trims losses versus the dollar after data showed the U.K. unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady and wages accelerated in the three months to December. The jobless rate remained at 4.4% compared with the 4.5% expected in a WSJ survey of economists. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, rose 5.9% on year after a 5.6% rise in the previous three-month period, as expected. This is "incompatible with a sustainable return to the Bank of England's 2% inflation target over the medium term," Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown says in a note. EUR/GBP falls to a low of 0.8293 after the data from 0.8303 beforehand. GBP/USD rises to 1.2623 from 1.2601.

0721 GMT - The main story in the European fixed income market is the increase in public spending on defense and aid to Ukraine, says Danske Bank Research's August Hyldgaard in a note. The European Union is looking into various options to fund the increased spending through either joint financing or suspending the EU fiscal rules, similar to that during the Covid-19 crisis, the analyst says. "The response in the bond market was higher yields across the EGBs [eurozone government bonds], but with tighter spreads between periphery and semi-core EGBs relative to core EGBs," he says. This means that there isn't much flight to quality despite the higher yields and the pressure on fiscal policy, he says. The 10-year Bund yield rises 0.5 basis point to 2.488%, according to LSEG data.

0713 GMT - Eurozone government bonds experienced some weakness on Monday, with yields rising as markets price in U.S.-EU relations souring, according to Pepperstone's Michael Brown in a note. Bond markets are also pricing in a risk premium associated with the upcoming German elections, the senior research strategist says. Higher government bond yields also signal the potential of higher investor insurance as European nations attempt to finance a sharp rise in defense spending, Brown says. The eurozone 10-year bond yields rose by 4 to 7.5 basis points across the board on Monday, according to Tradeweb data. Eurozone bond investors will be closely watching for the release of Germany's ZEW sentiment survey on Tuesday, while bond issuance will come from Germany and Finland.

0659 GMT - The German 10-year Bund yields are likely to rise to 2.75% by the year-end, according to DZ Bank Research's Birgit Henseler. Germany could pursue an expansionary fiscal policy as a result of structural reforms and expenditure on defense, the analyst says in a note. "This should drive up 10-year yields," she says. The expected increase in U.S. Treasury yields will also lead to upward movement in Bund yields, she says. However, the 10-year Bund yields could move sideways around 2.50% in the next six months before rising in the second half of 2025, she says. On Monday, the 10-year Bund yield rose 6 basis points to 2.48%, according to Tradeweb.

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

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February 19th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Gold Market Ructions Drive Singapore Exports to the US

Source: Theedgemarkets

NZD/USD Slides Further Below 0.5700 in Reaction to Rbnz’s Supersized Rate Cut

Source: FXSTREET

AUD/NZD Rises Toward 1.1200 Following RBNZ Rate-cut Decision

Source: FXSTREET

Boj’s Takata: Boj Must Gradually Shift Policy Even after January's Rate Hike

Market reaction

Source: FXSTREET

How Interest Rates Shake Up Your Dividend Stocks

The Basics: Interest Rates and Stock Valuation

Why Dividend Stocks Feel the Heat

The Flip Side: Opportunities in Rate Changes

The Investor’s Playbook

Conclusion

Gold Futures Rise on Safe-Haven Demand, Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

Risk Disclosure